Russian Invasion of Ukraine Megathread

How well is the war this going for Russia?

  • ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Blyatskrieg

    Votes: 249 10.6%

  • ⭐⭐⭐⭐ I ain't afraid of no Ghost of Kiev

    Votes: 278 11.8%

  • ⭐⭐⭐ Competent attack with some upsets

    Votes: 796 33.7%

  • ⭐⭐ Stalemate

    Votes: 659 27.9%

  • ⭐ Ukraine takes back Crimea 2022

    Votes: 378 16.0%
  • Total voters
    2,360
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"Macron"?
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Hell on Earth said:
You don't know shit where they're located and you don't have the capabilities to capture them (you'll have to start WW3 to do that) and remember that they'll use them if Russian statehood is threatened. (they'll know from the start that you funded and armed those insurgents)

Your only option is to start WW3 and hope for dear life that nukes don't start flying.

This is why your plan is so shit.
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Russia is still in New START. Both US and Russia monitor locations of deployed warheads and even allow on-site inspections. There won't be a defined "insurgency moment" as Jan, 6, but a long process of sabotaging Kremlin's orders by regional elites and the independence will only be declared at the moment when the central power is at its weakest. Just like in 1989-1991.
Matt Damon said:
Totally. Russia is the greatest threat the world has ever faced, according to the news that I started watching a month ago.
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Russia has 1st/2nd largest nuclear arsenal and also serves as a proxy nuclear shield for China (any nuclear attack on China will involve ICBMs flying awfully close to Russian airspace and will likely trigger retaliatory strike). I'd argue that economic decoupling from the West will make Russia more dangerous in the long run, as Western countries won't have the leverage they had previously. Europe (and to a lesser extent, USA) will have to deal with Russia, sooner or later.
Ted Gazynski said:
Good thing China is a world leader in agricultural machinery production and would love a new market for its shit.

Russia already lost its outlying regions, what’s left is the core that it managed to maintain through economic and political collapse only 30 years ago. The idea that america will be able to peel off territories is delusional and retarded.

The west has a hard time fomenting shit in Russia or China because they have a very high rate of agents being caught. The CIA can’t even topple Venezuela’s government during an economic crisis and sanctions and you expect them to take down Putin and the FSB?

It’s very weird to me when people call for this type of shit, it’s like you’re totally disconnected from reality.
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>muh China
Even if China can make exactly what you need, you'd still need to replace the existing machinery. That's hundreds of thousands of Euros even for a small installment and months/years in waiting times if we're talking about production lines.
And now let's get to what China can't replace: precision CNC machines, radiation-protected semiconductors, oil&gas machinery, complex analytical equipment (chromatographs, mass- and NMR spectrometers, X-ray diffractometers), complex pharmaceutical substances, other advanced biotech, microprocessors using <54nm process, passenger planes...
And please tell me about homogeneity of Russia. Even ethnic Russian from St. Petersburg and Krasnodar have different way of life, culture, history and traditions. And then there's more than dozen of autonomous republics, sometimes with their own constitutions, state languages and phenotypically distinct populations. As I've said before, there's no need for CIA niggers to instigate separatism. The current contract between Kremlin and regional governments is "you provide electoral support for ruling party and we let you keep some money your region generates and rule as you see fit". The majority of money is generated from exports, and majority of exports go to EU countries. As money flow dries out, the contract is broken. And without money, it'll become harder and harder for Kremlin to keep regions in line.
Ah yes, Venezuela, that is almost 20 times smaller than Russia and has the same population as Moscow agglomeration. And much less ethnically diverse.
There won't be "taking down" Putin. There will be regions slowly falling off one by one, just because the West can offer them better contract than Kremlin. Sure, Putin can keep Central Russia, but that's dying part of the country with Moscow sucking human capital from it and no natural resources.
 
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tulskij_tochnyj said:
Russia is still in New START. Both US and Russia monitor locations of deployed warheads and even allow on-site inspections. There won't be a defined "insurgency moment" as Jan, 6, but a long process of sabotaging Kremlin's orders by regional elites and the independence will only be declared at the moment when the central power is at weakened. Just like in 1989-1991.

Russia has 1st/2nd largest nuclear arsenal and also serves as proxy nuclear shield for China (any nuclear attack on China will involve ICBMs flying awfully close to Russian airspace and will likely trigger retaliatory strike). I'd argue that economic decoupling from the West will make Russia more dangerous in the long run, as Western countries won't have the leverage they had previously. Europe (and to a lesser extent, USA) will have to deal with Russia, sooner or later.

>muh China
Even if China can make exactly what you need, you'd still need to replace the existing machinery. That's hundreds of thousands of Euros even for a small installment and months/years in waiting times if we're talking about production lines.
And now let's get to what China can't replace: precision CNC machines, radiation-protected semiconductors, oil&gas machinery, complex analytical equipment (chromatographs, mass- and NMR spectrometers, X-ray diffractometers), complex pharmaceutical substances, other advanced biotech, microprocessors using <54nm process, passenger planes...
And please tell me about homogeneity of Russia. Even ethnic Russian from St. Petersburg and Krasnodar have different way of life, culture, history and traditions. And then there's more than dozen of autonomous republics, sometimes with their own constitutions, state languages and phenotypically distinct populations. As I've said before, there's no need for CIA niggers to instigate separatism. The current contract between Kremlin and regional governments is "you provide electoral support for ruling party and we let you keep some money your region generates and rule as you see fit". The majority of money is generated from exports, and majority of exports go to EU countries. As money flow dries out, the contract is broken. And without money, it'll become harder and harder for Kremlin to keep regions in line.
Ah yes, Venezuela, that is almost 20 times smaller than Russia and has the same population as Moscow agglomeration. And much less ethnically diverse.
There won't be "taking down" Putin. There will be regions slowly falling off one by one, just because the West can offer them better contract than Kremlin. Sure, Putin can keep Central Russia, but that's dying part of the country with Moscow and no natural resources.
Click to expand...
Central Russia dying is a decent point at the end. If certain numbers are to be believed, ethnic Russians reproduce as badly as, if not worse than, Westerners. As they lose numbers, the ethnicities still reproducing well will inevitably have greater leverage over the country. I can perfectly see Russia being balkanized in the future as an option.
 
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