Mukhrani
kiwifarms.net
- Joined
- Jul 24, 2021
I think this is a really instructive historical example for what would actually happen if Russia were balkanized, as some have discussed. People on the right, or people with a libertarian streak, have this delusional, rosy conception of what balkanization means. You'd think that looking at the Balkans would demonstrate that it's dicey at best, but oh well.
The Middle East in the ancient world was divided pretty evenly mainly between Babylon and Persia and later Rome and Persia. Under Islam it was unified for the first time since Alexander, and it remained that way, with the center of control passing (among others) from Damascus to Baghdad to Istanbul. When the English egged the Arabs on to rebel and break off from the Ottomans, the Hashemites (Lawrence's primary allies) thought that they would break off and have a new Arab Caliphate. England, however, saw a united Middle East as a threat under any leader, and when Sharif Hussein refused to sign on to the Balfour Declaration they stabbed the Hashemites in the back and put the Saudis in power in Arabia. The Europeans then proceeded to carve up the Middle East in a way that made reunification impossible, and set up a system which ensured that any resources being extracted there would flow primarily west. If you look at the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Russians took similar steps in Central Asia, especially Bactria and the Caucasus.
So the idea that Russia would break up into little smaller countries in a Western-backed collapse situation and that they would become independent, culturally unique, and prosperous states is a pipe dream. Such a scenario would end with Russia becoming another Middle East. With no more great power to exert influence in that region of the world, the shattered remnants of the old empire would simply become a playground for the remaining great powers, who would counterbalance its volatile internal forces against one another and ensure that any fossil fuels would flow either west or (in China's case) east. When the Ottomans were dissolved by outside forces, the Arab's didn't get their dreamed-of Caliphate, they got a burned out husk that was sucked dry of its oil while a few corrupt warlords became unimaginably rich. The got blood-drenched sand, privation, and civilizational collapse. The exact same thing would happen if Russia were to collapse. Nobody would be courting Ukraine's favor a decade later, because the presence of a great power nearby is the only thing that makes military aid to them attractive. The Ukraine would eventually become another ripe plum to pluck. In Lawrence of Arabia's day, the European media portrayed the Arabs as plucky, admirable freedom fighters against the mean, oppressive Ottomans, because the dissolution of Ottoman power was expedient for Europe. Ukraine is in a similar position today. If Russia is ever disposed of and carved up, the West will turn its knives on Ukraine, just as they did to the Arabs. If we aren't all bathed in nuclear fire in the process, of course.
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