Russian Invasion of Ukraine Megathread

[Sexual Chocolate]

There's also other more practical reasons as well. If something big ever kicked off, how well do you think the swedes would be able to provide Canada with parts and support from across a contested ocean? Way easier to just have em shipped right over the border. Plus the f35 has a much larger user base, so you have much better supply chain for those spare parts.

Sure, the F-35 is a much better plane with better logistics.

Canada is America's hat tho. Anything sufficiently big to require Canadian pilots to dogfight somewhere near the Arctic Circle is gonna be followed by ICBMs pretty quick, making it irrelevant whether they have Gen 5 or Gen 4 jets (either are fine for facing off Tu-95's). Anything less big than WW3 is something they'd be smarter to sit out.

F-35 doesn't make Canadia more secure than the cheaper store brand alternative, but defense spending has almost nothing to do with defense anyway.

 

[Spicey McHaggis]

Now that I think about, South America will probably be one of the better ways for Russia to keep its western airplanes up and running. They already sell military equipment and planes to a few south American countries, most of whom also operate western stuff. I can definitely see some back door trades being made.

 

[UVB-76]

Now that I think about, South America will probably be one of the better ways for Russia to keep its western airplanes up and running. They already sell military equipment and planes to a few south American countries, most of whom also operate western stuff. I can definitely see some back door trades being made.

BRAZIL SUPERPOWER 2022 LET'S GOOOO

 

[Jump]

They operate some already.

Ya Embraer's are good. I would rather fly on one of those then anything Boeing has made lately.

And China has an Airbus factory and now a Boeing factory to finish 737s.
Also the chinks strait up cloned and then improved the Blackhawk from a few examples they got years ago. I think they can manage to make what ever service parts anyone needs. Only thing stopping them from doing that now is FAA regulations about flying planes with unofficial parts in US airports. If Russia is baned from Western airports now then that is a non-issue. I am sure China is already making service parts for their domestic only airplanes anyways.

 

[White_N]

Russia is going to claim a wasteland called peace. And the hilarious thing is they did Zelensky a favor by wiping out the Azov. At this stage he no longer needs them, so the fact they held as long as they did is a bonus.

The Russians razed Grozny to the ground when they fought with Muslim radicals. Ten years later, the city is the beauty of the south and has good relations with Russia. I don't think anything has changed now, just because they are fighting the nationalists.

And something else, Azov is far from the only battalion, just the most famous and with the greatest number of Nazi symbols per cubic meter.

Huge amounts of money were invested in national battalions for equipment and foreign instructors, so I don't really understand how the destruction of battalion members is also recorded as Putin's defeat.

 

[Richardface]

The Russians razed Grozny to the ground when they fought with Muslim radicals. Ten years later, the city is the beauty of the south and has good relations with Russia. I don't think anything has changed now, just because they are fighting the nationalists.

And something else, Azov is far from the only battalion, just the most famous and with the greatest number of Nazi symbols per cubic meter.

Huge amounts of money were invested in national battalions for equipment and foreign instructors, so I don't really understand how the destruction of battalion members is also recorded as Putin's defeat.

We're in the Didnt Need Them Anyway stage of cope

 

[Spicey McHaggis]

The Russians razed Grozny to the ground when they fought with Muslim radicals. Ten years later, the city is the beauty of the south and has good relations with Russia. I don't think anything has changed now, just because they are fighting the nationalists.

And something else, Azov is far from the only battalion, just the most famous and with the greatest number of Nazi symbols per cubic meter.

Huge amounts of money were invested in national battalions for equipment and foreign instructors, so I don't really understand how the destruction of battalion members is also recorded as Putin's defeat.

It's been rebuilt, but calling it beautiful is a stretch imo.

 

[MrJokerRager]

Ukraine is recalling its embassadors from Georgia and Morocco because these countries aren't helping, Zelensky hinted Latin America, Middle East, South-East Asia and Africa may be next.

View attachment 3127092

Wasn't Georgia invaded by Ivan a few years ago and now they the enemy of the hohol. I am confused.

 

[Candlelight Desolation]

Yeah I have to say the Biden administration fucked up with trump we could have had a friendly Brazil still instead we choose Biden, globohomo and more enemies. This is what we get by "putting the adults back in charge".

Rigged elections have consequences.

 

[mindlessobserver]

The Russians razed Grozny to the ground when they fought with Muslim radicals. Ten years later, the city is the beauty of the south and has good relations with Russia. I don't think anything has changed now, just because they are fighting the nationalists.

And something else, Azov is far from the only battalion, just the most famous and with the greatest number of Nazi symbols per cubic meter.

Huge amounts of money were invested in national battalions for equipment and foreign instructors, so I don't really understand how the destruction of battalion members is also recorded as Putin's defeat.

This is not Grozny, and its not Syria. The level of delusion among the pro russian side right now is amazing. After everything that has gone down, the Ukrainian national army is LARGER now then it was at the start of the war. At the end of the day Mariople is a minor city with a steel plant. The fact that its still holding for now is a miracle in and of itself. At a strategic level taking Mariople does not give Russia any definitive advantage beyond freeing up the forces used to pacify it, but that is a moot point as Ukraine has used the time to fortify its front. The Donetsk and Luhansk lines have been largely unmoved in Eastern Ukraine, and all the time wasted in Mariople has been used to fortify them. There is also no way at this stage Ukraine will agree to end the war unless Russia gives it back.

Why should they? Three Combined Arms Armies have been routed in the north, while the active force of the Ukrainian Army has increased in size. Both in manpower, and available equipment. Not decreased. Worse for Russia, there are reports they are running out of Aviation fuel. Which means the Russian Air Force is going to be in the same bind as the Japanese and German Air Forces in 1945. Lots of equipment. No gas.

When I said Russia had 30 days to win this war, I meant it. Now they have 30 days to END the war. If they don't, by May the Russian Air Force is going to be out of fuel, the Russian Navy out of Ammunition, and the Russian Army three sheets to wind with half its deployable force still on the trains from Siberia and the Caucauses while their front line forces will be exhausted and running out of supplies. The invasion of Ukraine has failed, and I am seeing little effort by Putin to try and salvage the situation by mobilizing Russias superior numbers. There must not be political will for it. Which is bad, because if Ukraine refuses to accept his terms the war goes on, and by June Russia will be facing defeat.

 

[MrJokerRager]

Rigged elections have consequences.

Isn't the guy in Brazil facing a potential election where he could be rigged out in favor of Lula iirc.

 

[Borscht]

It's been rebuilt, but calling it beautiful is a stretch imo.

Eh, I've seen worse. Looks like something you'd build in "Tropico" in half an hour with enough Islamic mods.

 

[White_N]

It's been rebuilt, but calling it beautiful is a stretch imo.

In comparison, my dude. But even on its own, it is pretty.

Wasn't Georgia invaded by Ivan a few years ago and now they the enemy of the hohol. I am confused.

They sent Saakashvili into exile and established trade with Russia. Diplomatic relations are strained because of Ossetia, but trade prevails.

 

[Spicey McHaggis]

Eh, I've seen worse. Looks like something you'd build in "Tropico" in half an hour with enough Islamic mods.

View attachment 3127267
View attachment 3127269
View attachment 3127270

I mean it definitely looks better than most Muslim cities, I'll give it that.

Edit; I should add, I just find most modern cities fucking hideous.

 

[kuuu]

Russia is doomed! Doooomed!

No idea how we will survive next winter without iPhones.

Anyway, a captured Ukrainian Mad Max'd KAMAZ:

Quote: "NATO, don't give them anything, they'll ruin it just like that."

 

[Borscht]

I mean it definitely looks better than most Muslim cities, I'll give it that.

Largely because it was built by Turkish architects with Russian money.

 

[White_N]

Ukrainian national army is LARGER now then it was at the start of the war

And made up of unwilling conscripts.

Mariople is a minor city

Major* city

The Donetsk and Luhansk lines have been largely unmoved in Eastern Ukraine

And forces moving from Kiev to them

time wasted in Mariople has been used to fortify them

They had 8 years to fortify them, which they did.

Russian Air Force is going to be out of fuel, the Russian Navy out of Ammunition

Don't forget morale and food.

The invasion of Ukraine has failed

The level of delusion among the pro russian side right now is amazing

The level of delusion among the anti-Russian side right now is amazing.

 

[MindYourSeabiscuits]

Russia is doomed! Doooomed!

No idea how we will survive next winter without iPhones.

Anyway, a captured Ukrainian Mad Max'd KAMAZ:
View attachment 3127272
Quote: "NATO, don't give them anything, they'll ruin it just like that."

That thing looks like an asset from a PS1 game.

 

[Jump]

Its all over Putinbro's. The EU doesn't need your products.

Oh.

 

[mindlessobserver]

How do you feel about being right?

Pretty good! Lets do a recap of all my neg rated predictions from a month ago.

https://kiwifarms.st/threads/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-2022-thread-1.107023/post-11281416

I don't think the Russians have the numbers to take the city. They had assumed Ukrainian resistance would have crumbled by this point. The forces that have reached Kiev are sufficient for a reconnaissance in force, maybe even raids, but actually going in and holding the city? Not a chance. We are talking a city of 3 million people with by all accounts some 50,000 troops when counting the regular army formation and civilian auxiliary. Russia is going to need to bring up at least 75,000 soldiers minimum to make an attempt.

This is probably why we see the Russians pulling out all the stops in Karkhiv. They need those forces over at Kiev.

https://kiwifarms.st/threads/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-2022-thread-1.107023/post-11281595

Sweep where though? What good does it do them driving around the wheat fields burning fuel they don't have and getting shot at by irate farmers? They need to defeat the Ukrainian Army in being. The longer this drags on the greater chance it becomes a quagmire.

https://kiwifarms.st/threads/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-2022-thread-1.107023/post-11282260

I swear Russia shills really thinks this like EU 4 or Hearts of Iron. Hurr Durr, my division just entered this province/city unopposed. That means it's mine guys. Change the color on the map!

That is not how this works. Isolating enemy strong points may have worked with Island Hopping in the Pacific war, but it does not work in a pure land war. Soldiers need to eat. Their equipment needs fuel. They need ammunition. You can't just leave entire brigades of enemy soldiers behind your line of advance because it's too hard to get them out. Those troops don't just stay in place. They can attack your supply lines. Cut you off, and then what? You are alone in the wheat field and it does not matter if the map says you own that particular region if farmer Stanislav and his buddies are shooting at you

https://kiwifarms.st/threads/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-2022-thread-1.107023/post-11282500

As someone who actually carried a rifle in an occupation of a hostile country I think I have a pretty good idea of what the requirements are.

https://kiwifarms.st/threads/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-2022-thread-1.107023/post-11288004

It really depends on if Ukraine has enough time to Mobilize and whether they can keep their Army organized in the field. If the answer to both those questions is yes we can start seeing some pretty nasty conventional battles with high death totals. No chance as high as hundreds of thousands (there are barely 300,000 in the field right now counting both sides), but certainly in the many thousands.

We'll know shit has gotten real if Russia starts calling up more divisions from its other conflict areas in the Stan's and Caucasus.

https://kiwifarms.st/threads/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-2022-thread-1.107023/post-11303552

It's logistics. Again. The Russians didn't set aside the necessary material for a sustained campaign. Aircraft burn through metric shit tons of fuel, ammunition and parts in combat scenarios, and I don't think the Russians set aside enough of all of it. It's mind boggling. They launched an invasion without a supply train.

Logistics was a known problem for the Russian military. Their invasion of Georgia was a shit show logistically. It seems that not only did they not fix those issues, the issues have gotten worse.

https://kiwifarms.st/threads/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-2022-thread-1.107023/post-11311724

I think you are greatly simplifying how hard it is to "encircle a city, and wait".

Beyond that Russia can't wait. It's been a week of war now. If this drags on another few weeks and they are still stuck outside Mariople, Karkiv and Kiev, then Ukraine will have had enough time to start fielding its war time regiments. They also don't have air superiority. Their shit is taking a pounding from the Javelines and Stingers, and the Ukraine Air Force is still flying.

Russia has at best 3 more weeks to seal the deal or its going to be in a nasty protracted war they didn't bring enough troops in to fight. Putin is going to have to order general mobilization in Russia and call up his reserves. That is not going to go over well domestically.