Russian Invasion of Ukraine Megathread

How well is the war this going for Russia?

  • ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Blyatskrieg

    Votes: 249 10.6%

  • ⭐⭐⭐⭐ I ain't afraid of no Ghost of Kiev

    Votes: 278 11.8%

  • ⭐⭐⭐ Competent attack with some upsets

    Votes: 796 33.7%

  • ⭐⭐ Stalemate

    Votes: 659 27.9%

  • ⭐ Ukraine takes back Crimea 2022

    Votes: 378 16.0%
  • Total voters
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RodgerDodger said:
Actually America has generally won almost every war, police action or military engagement they have attempted. It's the what comes after that we generally fuck up wildly until we finally grow bored and go home. I will give the Viet Cong credit for their accomplishments. Both Against the American's and later against the Chinese. Key takeaway, don't fuck with the Vietnamese on their home turf.
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North Korea also still exists, and is very communist.
 
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Serious question, since I love to shitpost but have to ask because a lot of your posts seem like cope: Why apply western logic to Russian problems? And why would you think Russia would lose - when they haven't deployed more than a tenth of their available soldiers to the conflict? To me it seems like they are sending a lot of second rate soldiers into a second rate problem. They don't give a shit if it's a meat grinder, that is how they fight wars. They have a ton of generals, and a ton of conscripts. Eventually they will win. It's that simple.

@The Other Baldwin - Just speaking from over twenty years' military experience, retired senior officer. Logistics wins wars, whether you are Russian, American, or whatever. If you cannot supply and support a force, that force won't be effective for long. Not "western logic", just common sense. Far as the number of troops deployed for this operation, suggest this number is all Russia can really spare. That's why they asked Kazakhstan and Belarus for help, and why they've brought in Chechens now. Today's Russian Army is a mere shadow of the old Red Army from my Cold War days. This army has commitments in a number of places, such as along the borders of China, Iran, and the Baltic States. There needs to be soldiers in the restive Muslim areas. Needs to have soldiers to man the training system. Also keep in mind that only a certain number of soldiers in any army are infantry trigger-pullers. Supply and support take numbers of troops. Many soldiers are in the artillery and armor branches. And I wouldn't call the Russian VDV second-rate soldiers, but they were pissed away by fourth-rate planning.

As previously stated, Putin's intent was for a three-day quick campaign to take Kyiv/Zelensky, Kharkiv, Odessa, Mariupol, and likely a few other places. Decapitate and hamstring Ukraine. Didn't happen. As also previously stated, Russia suppresses initiative on the part of their noncommissioned officers/company grade officers/field grade officers, meaning generals and colonels MUST go up front and run the battles. Gets a number of them killed. These high-ranking officers are better used behind the lines overseeing the big picture and dealing with strategy. This isn't "western logic", this is common sense.

Now the war is a grind. Russians cannot take Kyiv or else they wouldn't have "redirected forces away". Kyiv and Zelensky were the primary target. The Russians will eke out some sort of victory, but it sure won't be what was envisioned when this operation was conceived in Moscow.
 
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Jump said:
Going to put a big old red X for Doubt on that one.

Last I checked the area had a population of around 500 mostly old ladies who refuse to leave their lifelong homes. They farm and eat the live stock there.
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Also the wildlife is thriving and there are workers right as the plant every day still working on maintenance of the containment systems.
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I've explained it before but gonna do it again. The cherbobyl event generated significant localized Fallout in the immediate vicinity of the plant. This Fallout was not normal either. It was literally the ash of an open, burning nuclear reactor. That ash will emit lethal radiation for the next 300 years, minimum. Thankfully for humanity, it's not hard Gamma radiation that can go through everything but the much more easy to manage beta wave type radiation which is easily blocked and has an ionizing range of around 1 meter.

Beta Waves can be blocked by any sort of barrier. Clothing, cloth mask, or dirt. It was the latter that the liquidators used to neutralize the Fallout. Literally flipping over hundreds of square kilometers in order to bury the Fallout. The closer you are to the plant however the greater concentration and in the case of the Red Forest, which was immediately down wind of Reactor 4, it was not possible to go in and bury the Fallout which means it's still active at the surface level, though by now buried under a thin layer of natural accumulation.

If those soldiers went into that area, with no protection and started digging? Then they literally inhaled the remains of a burning nuclear reactor into their lungs. They are going to die at best. At worst, they won't die.
 
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Jump said:
Going to put a big old red X for Doubt on that one.

Last I checked the area had a population of around 500 mostly old ladies who refuse to leave their lifelong homes. They farm and eat the live stock there.
View attachment 3127956
Also the wildlife is thriving and there are workers right as the plant every day still working on maintenance of the containment systems.
View attachment 3127979
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It's actually a lot more believable than you might think, because radioactive particles aren't an omnipresent thing; they find their way into some things and not others. You end up with hotspots and anything which can't easily be displaced by the elements and is porous is a good sponge for that shit, so you can be walking and then suddenly your meter is pipping like crazy and the radiation levels are spiking well above safe, which a forest environment is especially vulnerable to given what a mostly undisturbed forest is made up of. Then you start digging and it all gets worse.

When you dig, you're digging through layers of deposited material going back years and it wouldn't be hard to not only unearth a hotspot but also become covered with it yourself. If they were digging in the red forest, it could absolutely happen as that's one of the known bad areas even when you aren't digging it up.

Also the wildlife situation is interesting because while it is true that wildlife is present in decent numbers, I'm pretty sure what research I heard about slowly coming in indicated that the wildlife itself was outwardly normal looking but they were seeing stunted growth when compared to same species specimens from outside of the zone when subjected to more rigorous testing to determine how old the specimens were. Subtle stuff, no robocop toxic waste man shit, but definitely having an impact.

Edit: Ninja'd
 
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Guys let's not pretend that ruble growth isn't stimulated by global oil prices rising as well as meddling of Russian government. Don't be too optimistic.
 
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RodgerDodger said:
Actually America has generally won almost every war, police action or military engagement they have attempted. It's the what comes after that we generally fuck up wildly until we finally grow bored and go home. I will give the Viet Cong credit for their accomplishments. Both Against the American's and later against the Chinese. Key takeaway, don't fuck with the Vietnamese on their home turf.
Click to expand...

MRS LINCOLN: I'll have you know our evening at the theatre was going splendidly up till that point
 
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JosephStalin said:
@The Other Baldwin - Just speaking from over twenty years' military experience, retired senior officer. Logistics wins wars, whether you are Russian, American, or whatever. If you cannot supply and support a force, that force won't be effective for long. Not "western logic", just common sense. Far as the number of troops deployed for this operation, suggest this number is all Russia can really spare. That's why they asked Kazakhstan and Belarus for help, and why they've brought in Chechens now. Today's Russian Army is a mere shadow of the old Red Army from my Cold War days. This army has commitments in a number of places, such as along the borders of China, Iran, and the Baltic States. There needs to be soldiers in the restive Muslim areas. Needs to have soldiers to man the training system. Also keep in mind that only a certain number of soldiers in any army are infantry trigger-pullers. Supply and support take numbers of troops. Many soldiers are in the artillery and armor branches. And I wouldn't call the Russian VDV second-rate soldiers, but they were pissed away by fourth-rate planning.

As previously stated, Putin's intent was for a three-day quick campaign to take Kyiv/Zelensky, Kharkiv, Odessa, Mariupol, and likely a few other places. Decapitate and hamstring Ukraine. Didn't happen. As also previously stated, Russia suppresses initiative on the part of their noncommissioned officers/company grade officers/field grade officers, meaning generals and colonels MUST go up front and run the battles. Gets a number of them killed. These high-ranking officers are better used behind the lines overseeing the big picture and dealing with strategy. This isn't "western logic", this is common sense.

Now the war is a grind. Russians cannot take Kyiv or else they wouldn't have "redirected forces away". Kyiv and Zelensky were the primary target. The Russians will eke out some sort of victory, but it sure won't be what was envisioned when this operation was conceived in Moscow.
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Spoken like a true 80's staff officer with his head so far up his ass that he can't see sunlight. I know all the logistics. There is no actionable intelligence that Russia can't keep up it's supply lines. They aren't losing battles because they are out of fuel, or ammunition, or people, they are are sending in second line soldiers against a second line turd tier mostly untrained army and basically eating them up over time.

I know that is all they can spare. They have to defend the rest of the nation. Europe has their hand so far up Ukraine's ass that they don't have any choice but to piecemeal this conflict half assedly. Just like we do in all our proxy wars. Woohoo 21st century war, it's still handled like it's the 1960's.

The rest of that post just reads like a write up of the invasion of Iraq. The Russians are holding most of their strategically viable and near-peer units to hold off the West. That's a smart choice.

They didn't throw away the VDV. They sent in probably a battalion or less, and went shit, that didn't work.

Cold War days
Well Tom Clancy.....you are outdated and so is the shit you learned in the Military College you went to in the 1980's.

Also I love you. Deal with it.
 
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Mike Stoklasa said:
Why are you getting mad? The other guy isn't getting mad.
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Good question. The concepts I described are pretty basic. Yes, diploma from Air Command and Staff College. Yes, served on a USAF major command staff. Yes, senior operational staff officer at an alphabet agency. If someone is angry about that, that's their issue. Just using background, training and experience to provide some insight.
 
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