War Invasion of Ukraine News Megathread - Thread is only for articles and discussion of articles, general discussion thread is still in Happenings.

President Joe Biden on Tuesday said that the United States will impose sanctions “far beyond” the ones that the United States imposed in 2014 following the annexation of the Crimean peninsula.

“This is the beginning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine,” Biden said in a White House speech, signaling a shift in his administration’s position. “We will continue to escalate sanctions if Russia escalates,” he added.

Russian elites and their family members will also soon face sanctions, Biden said, adding that “Russia will pay an even steeper price” if Moscow decides to push forward into Ukraine. Two Russian banks and Russian sovereign debt will also be sanctioned, he said.

Also in his speech, Biden said he would send more U.S. troops to the Baltic states as a defensive measure to strengthen NATO’s position in the area.

Russia shares a border with Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.

A day earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered troops to go into the separatist Donetsk and Lugansk regions in eastern Ukraine after a lengthy speech in which he recognized the two regions’ independence.

Western powers decried the move and began to slap sanctions on certain Russian individuals, while Germany announced it would halt plans to go ahead with the Russia-to-Germany Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

At home, Biden is facing bipartisan pressure to take more extensive actions against Russia following Putin’s decision. However, a recent poll showed that a majority of Americans believe that sending troops to Ukraine is a “bad idea,” and a slim minority believes it’s a good one.

All 27 European Union countries unanimously agreed on an initial list of sanctions targeting Russian authorities, said French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, and EU foreign affairs head Josep Borell claimed the package “will hurt Russia … a lot.”

Earlier Tuesday, Borell asserted that Russian troops have already entered the Donbas region, which comprises Donetsk and Lugansk, which are under the control of pro-Russia groups since 2014.

And on Tuesday, the Russian Parliament approved a Putin-back plan to use military force outside of Russia’s borders as Putin further said that Russia confirmed it would recognize the expanded borders of Lugansk and Donetsk.

“We recognized the states,” the Russian president said. “That means we recognized all of their fundamental documents, including the constitution, where it is written that their [borders] are the territories at the time the two regions were part of Ukraine.”

Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Putin said that Ukraine is “not interested in peaceful solutions” and that “every day, they are amassing troops in the Donbas.”

Meanwhile, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday morning again downplayed the prospect of a Russian invasion and proclaimed: “There will be no war.”

“There will not be an all-out war against Ukraine, and there will not be a broad escalation from Russia. If there is, then we will put Ukraine on a war footing,” he said in a televised address.

The White House began to signal that they would shift their own position on whether it’s the start of an invasion.

“We think this is, yes, the beginning of an invasion, Russia’s latest invasion into Ukraine,” said Jon Finer, the White House deputy national security adviser in public remarks. “An invasion is an invasion and that is what is underway.”

For weeks, Western governments have been claiming Moscow would invade its neighbor after Russia gathered some 150,000 troops along the countries’ borders. They alleged that the Kremlin would attempt to come up with a pretext to attack, while some officials on Monday said Putin’s speech recognizing the two regions was just that.

But Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters Tuesday that Russia’s “latest invasion” of Ukraine is threatening stability in the region, but he asserted that Putin can “still avoid a full blown, tragic war of choice.”

Article

 

[SBG]

@SBG reply bug, but you kind of answered yourself there. The overtly optimistic view of peace talks made people buying Rubles again, but that's highly optimistic since the promise of peace talk will be nuked once Russia and Ukraine launched offensives and counter-offensives, which they definitely will soon

Also the article you quoted answered your question as well, Moscow is artificially propping up the currency with some extreme measures. And the impending announcement about Putin's threat to cut off gas and oil if the West won't pay them with Rubles affected that as well. But as the article said, it's only temporary and very short-term. We probably going to see Rubles fell again

I was honestly more wanting to be critical of the Zerohedge comment and the weird sentiment I've seen this past day. I've been seeing people basically praising the beauty of living like a peasant or at least acting like it's not an indictment of the state of Russia to see what the non-major cities are like to live in because they think it's comparable to being poor/lower-class in the US. Then you have Russia expert and will power pill seller Clint acting like Russia has made the sanctions irrelevant, when it's such a braindead interpretation of the Russian economy right now that it makes me question my sanity. It's like Populist Inc all got a memo to talk about how if Russia still exists and has a currency then it means they've stood against the evil likes of America and its sanctions, which to me is a pretty low bar to set.

https://twitter.com/uisbg1/status/1509108973655494667

https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/1508986237486452737

https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/1508790454610976776

https://archive.ph/lHMtH

Cursory search of the article Glenn posted doesn't seem to say anything about manufacturing, nor weapons, and ends up saying they're a major producer of computer chips when I'm pretty sure that's not the case especially when it comes to those needed for weapons production.

Although Russia’s economy ($1.65 trillion) is much smaller than that of the U.S. ($22.9 trillion) and the European Union ($17.1 trillion), Moscow is a major global supplier of key commodities such as oil, natural gas, grains, timber, and rare earth metals used in the production of computer chips, electric vehicles, and airplanes.

By Dimitri Simes, Jr.

During a visit to Brussels for the NATO summit on Thursday, President Joe Biden unveiled his latest Russia sanctions package. Biden told reporters that the U.S. and the European Union had agreed to sanction more than 300 Russian lawmakers and oligarchs, as well as several Russian defense companies.

Over the past month, Russia has overtaken both Iran and North Korea to become the most sanctioned country in the world. Some of the measures adopted by the U.S. and its European allies include the freezing nearly half of the Russian central bank’s $640 billion financial reserves, expelling several of Russia’s largest banks from the SWIFT global payment system, imposing export controls aimed at limiting Russia’s access to advanced technologies, closing down their airspace and ports to Russian planes and ships, and instituting personal sanctions against senior Russian officials and high-profile tycoons.

Multinational corporations have joined Western governments in cutting economic ties with Russia. Since the start of the Kremlin’s military campaign in Ukraine on February 24, more than 450 companies ranging from Apple to McDonalds have shut down their operations in Russia, according to a database compiled by Yale University’s Chief Executive Leadership Institute.

But what exactly are the goals of the new sanctions regime against Moscow? Biden has stated that its primary objectives are “to impose severe costs on the Russian economy, both immediately and over time” and to turn Russian President Vladimir Putin into a “pariah on the international stage.” The New York Times has reported, citing current and former U.S. officials, that another aim is to “create domestic pressure on Putin to halt his war in Ukraine.”

So far, Western sanctions have succeeded in delivering a serious blow to the Russian economy. The Russian ruble has lost almost 30% of its value against the dollar since February 24, a development which has caused prices on imported goods to skyrocket. Further exacerbating Russia’s inflation problem is a wave of panic buying in major cities across the country, with shoppers seeking to stock up on essentials ranging from basic food products to medicines. At the same time, Russian lawmakers have estimated that nearly 96,000 workers have been put on leave following the mass exodus of Western corporations.

Despite these economic costs, however, there is so far little sign that Western sanctions are changing Putin’s political calculus on Ukraine. If anything, there are some reasons to believe that growing sanctions pressure could encourage the Russian president to harden his stance.

Fyodor Lukyanov, chairman of the Council of Foreign and Defense Policy, a research group that advises the Russian government, explained to this page that the high costs inflicted on the Russian economy by Western sanctions have put significant pressure on Moscow to compensate for them with military successes. Consequently, the Kremlin could very well respond to increased sanctions pressure by doubling down on its military operation in Ukraine instead of seeking a diplomatic way out.

“If the West continues to impose new sanctions, then Russia will have no other option but to also raise the stakes because there is no room for retreat,” Lukyanov said. “There is no option in the current situation that would allow us to smoothly take a step back without suffering catastrophic political consequences.”

A similar argument was made by Dmitry Suslov, a professor of international relations at National Research University Higher School of Economics, one of Russia’s most elite universities. Suslov told us that there was currently a divide within the Russian political establishment between supporters of a diplomatic settlement with Ukraine and hawkish elements who want to continue fighting until the Russian military succeeds in bringing about “regime change” in Kyiv.

“Western sanctions right now are the central question,” he explained. “If the West makes it clear that sanctions will at least be partially removed once the military operation comes to an end, then the compromise faction will be strengthened. However, if Moscow gets the sense that the West is waging ‘total economic war’ against Russia, then Putin will have little incentive to not go all the way.”

Much of the Kremlin’s response to sanctions so far has centered on mitigating the damage to the Russian economy rather than hitting back at the West. For example, the Russian central bank has sought to keep the value of the ruble from sliding by hiking up its key interest rate to 20% and limiting foreign currency exchanges.

Yet both Lukyanov and Suslov predicted that Moscow could introduce its own export controls if tensions with the West continue to escalate. Although Russia’s economy ($1.65 trillion) is much smaller than that of the U.S. ($22.9 trillion) and the European Union ($17.1 trillion), Moscow is a major global supplier of key commodities such as oil, natural gas, grains, timber, and rare earth metals used in the production of computer chips, electric vehicles, and airplanes.

To be sure, such a move would also significantly damage the Russian economy by depriving it of much needed revenue, but Lukyanov and Suslov suggested that it's a price the Kremlin may be willing to pay if it concludes that the West will maintain its sanctions against Russia indefinitely.

What about the impact of sanctions on Russian public opinion? It is difficult to fully assess since the Kremlin has tightly regulated domestic media coverage of the conflict in Ukraine, detained thousands of anti-war protestors, and even introduced new legislation that threatens jail time for those who spread “fake news” about the Russian military. Under such circumstances, many critics of the government’s actions in Ukraine will understandably choose to remain silent.

However, based on the available polling data from a diverse range of sources,

there does not seem to be much evidence suggesting that the economic damage of Western sanctions has so far succeeded in turning the Russian public against the Kremlin.

According to a survey published by the state-affiliated VTsIOM agency earlier this week, 74% of Russians support Moscow’s so-called “special military operation” in Ukraine compared to 17% who oppose it. VTsIOM also said that the share of Russians who said that they trusted Putin rose from 67.2% on February 20 to 80.6% on March 20.

Similar results were reported in a national survey conducted by a group of independent research organizations between February 28 and March 1. The study found that 58% of Russians backed Moscow's actions in Ukraine, while 23% opposed it.

Denis Volkov, director of the Levada Center, a leading independent Russian polling agency whose surveys are widely cited by international media outlets, said that the one likely explanation for such polling results was the perception by a majority of Russians that the West is the one most “responsible for the deteriorating situation in Ukraine.”

In late February, a Levada Center poll found that 60% of Russians said that the U.S. and NATO were primarily to blame for tensions around Ukraine compared to just 3% who faulted the Kremlin.

“We often heard from people in our focus groups the following argument: ‘The West is dragging us into a conflict. What are we supposed to do? We can’t retreat,’” Volkov said.

As the economic costs associated with sanctions continue to mount, could Russians begin to change their mind about Ukraine? Volkov argued this is unlikely, noting that many respondents in Levada focus groups echoed Putin’s assertion that even if Moscow had never sent troops into Ukraine, the West would have found a different pretext to sanction Russia. “People already have a certain picture of the world, and so what’s happening now is merely confirming these existing preconceptions,” he said.

Few in Moscow expect the Russian economy to rebound quickly from Western sanctions. According to a study released by the Russian Central Bank on March 10, Russia’s GDP is projected to decrease by more than 8% in 2022 while inflation is expected to exceed 20%. A similarly gloomy assessment was offered by the Center of Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting, an influential Moscow-based think tank, which calculated that Russians could see their real disposable incomes decline by as much as 7% by the end of this year.

Ivan Tkachev, economics editor at the RBK business newspaper, told this page that Russia was facing its most serious economic crisis since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. He explained that Russia was able to recover fairly quickly from previous crises since the external shocks responsible for them (instability in foreign markets, drop in energy prices, etc.) eventually subsided. This time, by contrast, the main cause of the economic downturn (Western sanctions) is unlikely to subside anytime soon. Further complicating matters for Moscow is the fact that the Russian economy had been experiencing weak growth even before the present crisis.

However, Tkachev also emphasized that although Western sanctions would undoubtedly impose significant pain on the Russian economy, they would not be enough to completely break or isolate it. “Russia is not North Korea or even Iran,” he said. “It is a much larger economy and it is much more integrated into the overall global economy. The West cannot cannot fully cut off some currency injections because Russia is too integrated to the global energy and mineral trade.”

One way Moscow is likely to attempt to ease the burden of Western sanctions is by drawing even closer to Beijing. China has been Russia’s largest trading partner since 2010 and the total turnover between the two countries reached a record high of $146.88 billion last year. In addition to economic ties, Russia and China have over the past decade also strengthened their military cooperation by conducting regular joint military exercises. During his visit to Beijing last month for the Winter Olympics, Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping signed a joint statement in which they declared a “no limits” partnership and criticized U.S. security blocs in Europe and Asia.

Since the Kremlin’s decision to send Russian troops into Ukraine, China has repeatedly refused to join the U.S. and Europe in sanctioning Moscow and publicly stated that it still views Russia as its “most important strategic partner.” During a meeting with Chinese business people in Moscow on March 19, China’s Ambassador to Russia, Zhang Hanhui, urged them to “fill the void” created in the Russian market by Western sanctions and the mass exodus of multinational corporations.

There are already some signs of that happening. Following Visa and Mastercard’s announcement earlier this month that they would halt their operations in Russia, several leading Russian banks said that they would begin issuing cards with China’s UnionPay network. In response to U.S. and European sanctions restricting Russia’s access to dollars and euros, Russian investors have begun flocking to the Chinese yuan. On the technology front, meanwhile, the sale of Chinese smartphone brands in Russia doubled during the first two weeks of March.

Yet it is far from clear on how much China will be willing to put its own economic interests at risk to help Russia ease the burden of Western sanctions. Just days after Russian troops moved into Ukraine, two major Chinese state-sponsored banks, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the New Development Bank, announced they would suspend all activities related to Russia. Earlier this month, an official at Russia’s Federal Air Transport Agency told reporters that China had refused to send aircraft parts to Russia.

Artyom Lukin, a professor at the Far Eastern Federal University, admitted that while China would not be able to fully backfill the gap left by the West, it could help ease the burden on Russia by serving as an alternative source for goods such as cars, electronics, and industrial equipment. “Russia will suffer a big blow from sanctions, but if China does not turn its back on us, we will be able to avoid economic collapse,” he said.

Lukin predicted that it would take at least several years for Russia to fully reorient its economy from the West to China. In order to facilitate greater trade flows between Russia and China, Moscow will first have to expand its network of railroads, sea ports, pipelines, and airports in the border regions of the Russian Far East. Lukin admitted that such a massive infrastructure construction project would come with a hefty price tag, but he suggested the Kremlin could entice Chinese investors to help fund it by offering them ownership shares and significant discounts of Russian commodities.

The fact that Beijing has its own significant geopolitical tensions with Washington is another factor that could work in Russia’s favor. “For China, the land border with Russia is a safer route for natural resources since maritime imports could potentially be intercepted by U.S. naval ships in a crisis situation,” Lukin said. “So it makes sense from an economic and geostrategic point of view.”

That brings us back to the central question: Could Western sanctions eventually cause enough economic damage and foment enough public discontent to force Putin to withdraw Russian troops from Ukraine?

Maybe. But they could just as well have the opposite effect, especially if they remain indefinitely.

 

[Rezza]

Pfft, Clint Ehrlich is just a grifter. He's been proven time and time again how wrong he was about Russia and this invasion, before and during it. The fact that Tucker Carlson tried to prop him up as a "Russia Expert" shows just how massive and interconnected the grifting actually is, not just him but also related peoplePutin advisers ‘afraid to tell him truth’ about Ukraine error, says GCHQ head

Putin advisers ‘afraid to tell him truth’ about Ukraine error, says GCHQ head (archive)​

Sir Jeremy Fleming speech says Russia’s president miscalculated the scale of resistance


Vladimir Putin has made a strategic miscalculation in launching the invasion of Ukraine and his advisers are “afraid to tell him the truth” about the extent of his error, the boss of British spy agency GCHQ said in a speech on Thursday.

Sir Jeremy Fleming, in a speech given in Australia, said the Russian leader had misjudged the strength of Ukrainian resistance, the western response and the ability of his forces to deliver a rapid victory.


“It all adds up to the strategic miscalculation that western leaders warned Putin it would be. It’s become his personal war, with the cost being paid by innocent people in Ukraine and, increasingly, by ordinary Russians too,” Fleming said.

Western security officials want to lay the responsibility for February’s unprovoked invasion on Putin, who they characterise as a dominant, isolated leader who is making poor decisions partly because he no longer gets accurate information or honest opinions from his subordinates.

As a result, Fleming said he believed that the failure to achieve a quick victory must be causing discord in the Kremlin. “Even though we believe Putin’s advisers are afraid to tell him the truth, what’s going on and the extent of these misjudgments must be crystal clear to the regime.”

Earlier, US officials made a similar point, arguing that Putin was being misled by advisers who were too scared to tell him how poorly the war in Ukraine is going and how damaging western sanctions have been.

“We have information that Putin felt misled by the Russian military which has resulted in persistent tension between Putin and his military leadership,” said Kate Bedingfield, director of communications at the White House.

“We believe that Putin is being misinformed by his advisers about how badly the Russian military is performing and how the Russian economy is being crippled by sanctions because his senior advisers are too afraid to tell him the truth.”

She added: “So, it is increasingly clear that Putin’s war has been a strategic blunder that has left Russia weaker over the long term and increasingly isolated on the world stage.”

Ahead of the invasion, Putin held a bizarre meeting with his key advisers over whether to recognise the self-proclaimed republics in Luhansk and Donetsk. Some senior figures were clearly in fear of the president, who has led the country for 22 years, as he demanded each endorse the breakaway territories.


There were also growing signs, Fleming said, that Russian soldiers “short of weapons and morale” were “refusing to carry out orders, sabotaging their own equipment and even accidentally shooting down their own aircraft”.

No evidence was given to back up the air accident claim, although Whitehall sources said they were confident enough to allow Fleming to refer to it in the speech, partly to demonstrate to Russian insiders their knowledge of the military situation.

The spy chief also warned China not to become “too closely aligned” with Russia as the war continues, the latest in a string of remarks by western leaders and officials aimed at trying to persuade Beijing not to supply Moscow with money and arms.

Fleming said that Putin has made a clear “strategic choice” to align with China before the fighting broke out, but that there remained underlying tensions between the two countries – and risks for both in trying to work together.

“Russia understands that, long term, China will become increasingly strong militarily and economically. Some of their interests conflict; Russia could be squeezed out of the equation,” Fleming is expected to say.

“And it is equally clear that a China that wants to set the rules of the road – the norms for a new global governance – is not well served by close alliance with a regime that wilfully and illegally ignores them all.”

---

Why is Russia’s military regrouping and can Ukraine forces disrupt them? (archive)​

Analysis: Russian statements reflect a significant – but temporary – win for Ukraine


Russia’s announcement on Tuesday that it would “reduce military activity” around Kyiv and the nearby city of Chernihiv has been greeted with predictable scepticism, not least because shelling of both cities has continued.

While some movement of troops from the north back to Belarus has been detected, these appear to be part of normal operational redeployments, and they do not yet definitively amount to a retreat. Ukraine’s general staff said overnight Russia was engaged in “probably a rotation of the separate units and aims at misleading”.

If anything the shelling, with its consequences for civilians, is sadly to be expected: Russia will want to cover any halting of the ground offensive with firepower both to maintain uncertainty and keep Ukrainian forces tied down. And the capacity to bomb the city from a distance remains.

Yet, it is obvious that Russia is, in the words of Konrad Muzyka, a military intelligence specialist and president of Rochan Consulting, “buying time” – as it seeks to refocus on the Donbas region and win a more conventional military victory in the east.

The evident reality is that five weeks of near constant fighting north-west of the capital have utterly depleted Russia’s combat power. Across the board, Russian forces have suffered more than 10,000 casualties, the US now estimates – for a war that few of its troops expected or were properly prepared for.

Moscow may also be concerned that the Russian invaders to the north-west of Kyiv could even become vulnerable to Ukrainian counterattacks – although while Irpin, 20km from Kyiv city centre, has been recaptured, it is not yet clear that the defenders have the military strength to roll the invaders rapidly back.

Nevertheless, Ukrainian forces must press on where they can, to make it harder for Russia to retrench and regroup.

On the one hand, the Russian statements also reflects a significant – but temporary – win for Ukraine. A siege of Kyiv, a nightmare scenario for hundreds of thousands, has been averted, by a spirited defence that has seen light infantry harass and destroy Russian armour that tried and failed to bear down on the capital.

But Russia has a lot to gain from a slowdown in fighting, particularly where it is accompanied by hopeful-sounding rhetoric about reduced military activity around Kyiv – while its forces fight building by building for control of Mariupol in the south.

Its forces can rest, reorganise, and quietly concentrate mass in the east, now the publicly stated focus of operations. Reinforcements, where they are available, are “mostly lined up for reinforcements in operations in the Donbas”, western intelligence officials said on Tuesday.

They come from as far afield as Kaliningrad, the Russian enclave between Poland and Lithuania, and the country’s far east, and amount to about 10 battalion tactical groups, the smallest operating unit of the Russian army, each with about 800 personnel at full strength. For comparison Russia invaded with 115-120 such battalions, although up to 20 are now estimated to be no longer functional.

Accompanying them, it is believed, are about 1,000 fighters from the Wagner Group, a shadowy Russian mercenary group normally engaged in Kremlin-supported missions in Africa and the Middle East, but such is Moscow’s need for a military victory they have been brought into the fight closer to home.

Phil Osborn, a former chief of UK defence intelligence, believes that while “both sides will benefit from a lessening of the operational tempo” the reality is that the Russians have the most to gain. “For this reduction not just to be a significant benefit to Russia, the west must maximise and quickly increase its support to Ukraine.”

Ukraine has been asking for more powerful arms – including tanks, anti-aircraft and anti-artillery systems – for several days. But the question now is how far western leaders are ready to resupply Kyiv, particularly as there is now speculation that stocks of some high-end weapons such as the anti-tank Javelins are running short.

John Schaus, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a US thinktank, counted the US has sent 4,600 Javelins to Ukraine, which “accounts for more than half of the 8,885 Javelins the Department of Defense acquired in the past decade”.

A discussion between Joe Biden, the US president, and fellow leaders in the UK, Germany, France and Italy on Tuesday afternoon is said to have concluded that all five wanted to “increase our support for Ukraine”, according to one senior western official who listened in, a hint that more weapons would be sent, although when and what remains unclear.

Russia may have started the war with its unprovoked invasion last month, but at the moment it is Ukraine that has the most to gain from continuing to fight if its forces are able to disrupt Moscow’s efforts to regroup.

---

Putin and Zelenskiy could meet soon, says Ukraine’s top negotiator (archive)​

Kyiv official says he thinks Istanbul proposals could lead to summit, but Kremlin says there is ‘a lot of work to be done’

Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskiy could meet “soon”, a senior aide to Ukraine’s president has claimed, even as the Kremlin downplayed hopes of an early breakthrough in the peace talks.

The head of Ukraine’s negotiating team, Mykhailo Podolyak, a key adviser to Zelenskiy, said on Wednesday that Moscow was scrutinising proposals submitted by Kyiv in Istanbul which he believed could lead to a presidential peace summit.

“We can expect a presidential meeting to be held some time soon,” Podolyak said. “When is too early to tell, but it is a logistical issue.”

Putin’s spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, said it was “positive” that Ukraine had set out its position, but he talked down expectations of a summit.

“We cannot state that there was anything too promising or any breakthroughs,” he said, adding that there was “a lot of work to be done”.

Vladimir Medinsky, the head of Russia’s delegation in the talks this week, once again raised hopes, however, by claiming that Zelenskiy’s proposals indicated a readiness by Ukraine to reach a deal “for the first time in years”, adding that “if it fulfils the obligations, the threat of creating a Nato bridgehead on the Ukrainian territory will be removed”.

But later on Wednesday Ramzan Kadyrov, the Chechen leader whose forces are fighting in Ukraine, said that Moscow would make no concessions.

“Medinsky who made a mistake, made an incorrect wording... And if you think that he (Putin) will quit what he started just the way it is presented to us today, this is not true,” Kadyrov said.

The claims and counter-claims from the two capitals highlight the negotiating games being played by both sides as the war continues to rage in hotspots across Ukraine, with little sign of the bloodshed abating.

The United Nations refugee agency said on Wednesday that more than 4 million people had fled Russia’s “utterly senseless” war .

According to the UN body, 4,019,287 people have fled abroad since the start of Russia’s invasion on 24 February, exceeding its initial estimate that the war would create up to 4 million refugees. More than 90% are women and children.

The UN high commissioner for refugees, Filippo Grandi, said on Twitter he had just arrived in Ukraine and was beginning discussions with authorities, the UN and other partners on “ways to increase our support to people affected and displaced by this senseless war”.

The agency has said the speed and scale of the displacement is unprecedented in Europe since the second world war. The UN’s International Organization for Migration (IOM) also said that as of mid-March, 6.48 million people were internally displaced.

“They need urgent, life-saving aid,” the IOM said on Wednesday. Before the war, Ukraine had a population of 37 million in the regions under government control, excluding Crimea and the Russian-controlled regions in the east.

At the talks in Istanbul on Tuesday, Ukraine proposed a framework for peace under which it would remain neutral, with its security guaranteed by third-party countries through a treaty similar to Nato’s article 5 mutual defence commitment.

The proposals, intended to come into force only in the event of a complete ceasefire, included a 15-year consultation period on the status of the Crimean peninsula, which Moscow seized from Ukraine and annexed in 2014.

Medinsky said Ukraine had appeared ready to commit to a nuclear-free status and drop its aspirations, contained within the country’s constitution, to join the Nato military alliance.

He said Ukraine had also signalled that it could agree not to host foreign military bases and that it would only hold joint drills with foreign militaries in consultation with countries serving as guarantors of a peace deal, including the five permanent UN security council members, of which Russia is one.

Podolyak said any deal would need to be put to a referendum, which could only happen once Russian troops had withdrawn but, in what appeared to be a further concession, he added that this could be only to “the positions as of 23 February 2022”, in an apparent recognition that soldiers will remain at least in Crimea.

Key to Kyiv is that the four other security council members – the US, UK, France and China – commit to intervening should there be any future invasion of Ukrainian territory – which he claimed Moscow had accepted.

Podolyak, who said the Chelsea owner Roman Abramovich had been playing an effective role as a moderator of the talks, said: “We have submitted our suggestions to the Russian party saying that in principle this is time for the presidential-level meeting. When that is going to happen is rather a logistical question.

“The Russians need to go over our suggestions and give some preliminary response. Now we are working at the working group level online, clarifying different points so that package of documents is ready.”

He added: “We came to Istanbul to define the intermediate positions in the key documents. In our group as we see it, in the Ukrainian negotiating team, we see a possibility to sign preliminary agreements and to launch the presidential meeting process so, perhaps, in two or three or four days we will have a final version that will be confirmed by the Russians with amendments and then we can reach the next round of negotiations.”

Moscow described the talks as “meaningful” and “constructive” and subsequently pledged to “radically reduce” its military activity around Kyiv and Chernihiv, a heavily shelled city 100 miles north of the capital, as a goodwill gesture to “to increase mutual trust” in the peace negotiations.

Col Oleksandr Motyuzyanyk, spokesperson for the Ukrainian ministry of defence, said they had seen “some partial movement of certain units of the enemy from Kyiv and Chernihiv areas”.

“At the same time there is no mass-scale withdrawal from those areas,” he said. “The enemy has been withdrawing units which suffered the highest losses in order to replenish them. As far as we see the enemy has not abandoned its attempts to take or at least siege the capital city and Chernihiv.”

Western analysts and diplomats noted that Russia’s offer to partially pull back came after its advance, thwarted by stiff resistance and supply problems, had all but stalled, and that Moscow had already said it was refocusing its military goals on expanding the territory held by pro-Russia separatists in the eastern Donbas regions.

Officials in both Kyiv and Chernihiv said that both cities were still facing heavy shelling.

 

[ArthuriusMartyrius]

@SBG reply bug, but you kind of answered yourself there. The overtly optimistic view of peace talks made people buying Rubles again, but that's highly optimistic since the promise of peace talk will be nuked once Russia and Ukraine launched offensives and counter-offensives, which they definitely will soon

Also the article you quoted answered your question as well, Moscow is artificially propping up the currency with some extreme measures. And the impending announcement about Putin's threat to cut off gas and oil if the West won't pay them with Rubles affected that as well. But as the article said, it's only temporary and very short-term. We probably going to see Rubles fell again

As far as I am aware Germany refused and will be paying for gas only in dollars and euros. Not sure about the rest.

And yeah, no shit the peace talks are BS. Russia still hasn't stopped shelling despite promising to.

 

[Rezza]

Ukraine braces for fresh wave of attacks as Russia builds forces in Donbas (archive)​

Volodymyr Zelenskiy says fierce resistance has pressured Russian forces in Kyiv but Ukraine is preparing for strikes in other regions
Russia is building up its forces in eastern Ukraine in readiness for a new wave of attacks in the breakaway Donbas region, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy has claimed, despite the planned resumption of peace talks on Friday.

In an early morning video address on Thursday, Zelenskiy said that Russia’s announcement that it was pulling troops away from cities such as Kyiv and Chernihiv had been forced upon the Kremlin by the fierce resistance of Ukraine’s armed forces.


The Ukrainian leader added that his government was instead seeing “a build-up of Russian forces for new strikes on the Donbas and we are preparing for that”. The leader of the Donetsk People’s Republic, Denis Pushilin, said on Wednesday that offensive operations were intensifying.

Such a move would be consistent with Moscow’s claim this week about a withdrawal from some areas to focus on “liberating” the breakaway eastern Donbas region – which includes the besieged city of Mariupol – although Zelenskiy said it was “the consequence of our defenders’ work”.

Despite the withdrawal claims, Russian forces have continued to bombard the northern city of Chernihiv and parts of the capital Kyiv. Ukrainian military officials said they had seen some Russian units pull out but only because they had suffered heavy losses.

The fate of the south-eastern Donbas region, which Russia demands Ukraine cede to the separatists, was a topic of discussion at peace talks held on Tuesday in Istanbul palace. A senior Ukrainian negotiator said on Wednesday night that the talks will resume online on Friday.

Zelenskiy said the talks had produced nothing “concrete” while one of his senior aides said the Ukrainian leader could meet Putin “soon”.

The head of Ukraine’s negotiating team, Mykhailo Podolyak, said that Moscow was scrutinising proposals submitted by Kyiv in Istanbul which he believed could lead to a presidential peace summit between the pair. However, a Kremlin spokesman downplayed the hopes of an early breakthrough in the peace talks.

Ukraine has sought a ceasefire without compromising on territory or sovereignty, though it has proposed adopting a neutral status in exchange for security guarantees. Russia opposes Ukraine joining Nato, the western military alliance, and has cited its potential membership as a reason for the invasion.

Zelenskiy also said in his TV address that he talked to Joe Biden for an hour on Wednesday during another “very active diplomatic day”. He said he thanked the US president for a new $1bn humanitarian aid package and an additional $500m in direct budget support. Zelenskiy said: “The support of the United States is vital for us. And now it is especially important to lend a hand to Ukraine, to show all the power of the democratic world.”

A possible shift in the military situation in Ukraine came as the head of Britain’s spy services agency claimed that Putin has been misinformed about the extent of Russian military failure in Ukraine because his advisers are too frightened to tell him the damning truth.

Sir Jeremy Fleming, in a speech given in Australia on Thursday, said the Russian leader had misjudged the strength of Ukrainian resistance, the western response and the ability of his forces to deliver a rapid victory.

Fleming, whose comments were backed up by US and EU officials, said that the failure to achieve a quick victory must be causing discord in the Kremlin. “And even though we believe Putin’s advisers are afraid to tell him the truth, what’s going on and the extent of these misjudgments must be crystal clear to the regime.”

Pentagon spokesperson John Kirby agreed and said: “It’s [Putin’s] military. It’s his war. He chose it ... the fact that he may not fully understand the degree to which his forces are failing in Ukraine, that’s a little discomforting.”

Other key developments include:

• The Russian defence ministry announced a local ceasefire on Thursday to allow civilians to be evacuated from Ukraine’s besieged port city of Mariupol, according to Agence France-Presse. A humanitarian corridor from Mariupol to Zaporizhzhia, via the Russian-controlled port of Berdiansk, would be opened from 10am (7am GMT), it said.
• The Biden administration is considering a plan to release roughly one million barrels of oil a day from US reserves for several months, in order to combat
  rising fuel prices exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, according Bloomberg.
• Germany has triggered the first stage of plans to ration power if the standoff with Russia over gas supplies and sanctions is not resolved. Moscow is demanding that payment for energy be made in roubles, but this could undercut western sanctions on Russia and countries are under pressure not to go along with the Kremlin’s plan.
• The Russian rouble has recovered to its pre-war value despite western sanctions on the country’s exports and financial systems. The currency was trading at 75.5 to one US dollar on Thursday morning, compared with almost 140 at the beginning of March when it crashed with the onest of sanctions.
• Zelenskiy was due to address Australian parliament on Thursday.
• Global restrictions on exports of industrial components to Russia have hit car and tank production. A carmaker has shut down and tank production has halted, according to the US. Baikal Electronics, a Russian semiconductor company and computer manufacturer, has been cut off from integrated circuits to support its surveillance, servers, and other domestic communications equipment.
• Liz Truss, Britain’s foreign secretary, is due to land in India on Thursday to urge Narendra Modi’s government to reduce its strategic dependency on Russia. Her arrival in New Delhi coincides with that of her sparring partner Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, who will be making his first visit since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
• Major jewellers including American brand Tiffany & Co, Swiss watch and jewellery-maker Chopard, Signet, the largest retailer of diamond jewellery, and Pandora, the world’s largest jeweller, have released statements saying they will stop buying diamonds of Russian origin.
• The UK has announced new laws targeting the access of Russian oligarchs to “UK aviation and maritime technical services”, according to the Foreign Office.

 

[MarvinTheParanoidAndroid]

The Ruble probably has a fairly limited market now, allowing Central Bank to more easily employ gold sales (Russia produces 200 tons of it) and other measures to prop it up, like using foreign currency grabbed from citizens. Zerohedge is always going to take the most pro-Russian angle on this anyhow.

View attachment 3127293

dictator drip

None of those clothes look especially expensive, they look like shit that I could find on a hanger at ROSS. Who the fuck would pay $2,500 for a parka? It's not even leather, it's a winter track suit.

 

[Iceland Heavy]

The Ruble probably has a fairly limited market now, allowing Central Bank to more easily employ gold sales (Russia produces 200 tons of it) and other measures to prop it up, like using foreign currency grabbed from citizens. Zerohedge is always going to take the most pro-Russian angle on this anyhow.

View attachment 3127293

dictator drip

The most disappointing thing about this war so far has been finding out that the mighty Chechens are just a bunch of buck broken arab-tier Instagram larpers.

 

[Elim Garak]

The most disappointing thing about this war so far has been finding out that the mighty Chechens are just a bunch of buck broken arab-tier Instagram larpers.

They always were

 

[MarvinTheParanoidAndroid]

The most disappointing thing about this war so far has been finding out that the mighty Chechens are just a bunch of buck broken arab-tier Instagram larpers.

This war has so far proven that everyone who used to be a badass nation during the WW2 years are pathetic by today's standards.

 

[ArthuriusMartyrius]

Fun fact: The UK has started two world wars over honouring neutrality/independance of other states.

We did it for Belgian Neutrality in 1914 (the treaty was 150 years old and the germans thought we, the people who basically wrote global contract law wouldn't honour it)

We did it for Polish garuntees of independance also.

Both times a million of our people died to restore the world back to a rough balance.

I think we've done our bit for now. Ukies increasingly seem like they can boot the Russians out and I'm sure we can let them join NATO then.

Same with Georgia, who could probably retake the bits the russians stole in 2008.

Uh, both of those were done for British interests (Britain was literally ready to false-flag itself into WW1 on the French side if Germany didn't give them casus belli). In the case of Poland, Britain and France both left Poland to rot and didn't do shit until Germany actually invaded France. If Germany held off on that bit of autism, it's likely no WW2 would've occurred and Poland likely wouldn't exist as an independent country today.

 

[Uranus Pink]

WWII was going to happened one way or another and when Stalin was ready to launch it.

 

[No. 7 cat]

when Gulag prisoners planned to run, they brought with them "canned food" - prisoners fattened up that were expected to be food during a long trip to civilization.


Kadyrov's boots are actually ladies Prada boots, only the best

View attachment 3127488 View attachment 3127493


and ruble ... private person can't purchase those, but in the action marketplace, you can buy 100$ bills for their collectors value for 25'000 rubles.

in USSR a dollar was 0.6 Ruble ... but you could not buy it because posession of foreign currency by private parties was illegal (unless you were going on a trip, which is never for mere mortal)

Banks will still buy foreign currency from you.

The boot thing is disturbing. Kadyrov a secret transvestite or troon?

 

[teriyakiburns]

The boot thing is disturbing. Kadyrov a secret transvestite or troon?

Nah. Manlet with small feet.

 

[Niggernerd]

Turns out Trump was a better president for Russia than Putin. Kept the midgets dreams of conquering Ukraine in check for awhile thus kept Russia afloat for 4 years

 

[Vince McMahon]

Turns out Trump was a better president for Russia than Putin. Kept the midgets dreams of conquering Ukraine in check for awhile thus kept Russia afloat for 4 years

Does this mean that "ORANG MAN BAD" people were on to something, when they kept calling him a Russian asset? Hmmmm.

 

[MarvinTheParanoidAndroid]

 

[Rezza]

The boot thing is disturbing. Kadyrov a secret transvestite or troon?

Look at the sole thickness. That's to add the manlet's height

 

[Vince McMahon]

Russians have apparently dug trenches in the Red Forest.

What the fuck russkibros, are you still winning?

 

[The Demon Pimp of Razgriz]

Russians have apparently dug the trenches in the Red Forest.

What the fuck russkibros, are you still winning?

Only the Russians would be stupid enough to dig trenches around Chernobyl.

 

[MarvinTheParanoidAndroid]

Russians have apparently dug trenches in the Red Forest.

What the fuck russkibros, are you still winning?

Did they go fishing in the nearby lake too?

Only the Russians would be stupid enough to dig trenches around Chernobyl.

"Evrika! Look Dimitri, these blyats have abandoned a nuclear power plant fortress! What a defendable position they've just given us! We could use this as a base of operations, there's even wildlife abundant with extra limbs for us to hunt! A lake for us to fish, trees for campfires & the soil so rich for local agriculture, truly this is God's paradise! Come, Dimitri, we have fortifications to build.

Don't worry about core four, we'll use that as a latrine."

 

[Tovarisz]

Russians have apparently dug trenches in the Red Forest.

What the fuck russkibros, are you still winning?

I hope they got enough to where their skin peels off, that they didn't shoot the CO and deserted the moment he gave orders to dig trenches there is proof their grunts are illiterate buck broken idiots because I'm sure there were warning signs all over the area.

Also shows how much Russians value their people, they're not even worth getting them the most basic anti-radiation protection, much less any fucking consideration for their well being.

Russians were the ones responsible for cleaning Chernobyl up and fate of liquidators taught them nothing. I wonder if modern russians are even aware of Chernobyl or are they taught the disaster is western lies and propaganda aimed at making their glorious empire look incompetent.