If you're following the news and hearing about Ukrainian counter-attacks you'd have assumed that they've taken a significant amount of land back from Russia over the past few days. However the following image basically shows how pathetically small the advances on Russia have been. Every minor 'win' for Ukraine is going to result in their equipment being exposed to air attacks and heavy losses, unironically making it easier for Russia to reclaim it with another push.
View attachment 3136355
putting on my armchair general hat and looking at that map makes me think Ukraine does still have a solid shot at frustrating any larger offensive. if they manage to do these three things:
1.) hold at Mykolaiv and Odessa. probably the easiest for them - very hard to approach either and from predictable directions. plus I think they've fortified the two places by now pretty well.
2.) get a wide enough perimiter around Kevin, so they don't have to station most of their troops there for fear of a possible assault - this could be hard, since it's not just the western force they have to counterattack but also the one across the Dniepr to the east, which they don't seem to have started doing as much at all as of yet.
3.) hold Kharkiv, thereby allowing a gradual retreat of their best units from Luhansk and Donetsk to a second line that extends to the Dnieper. this could be very hard, and idk if they're even willing to contemplate it, but long-term it would definitely be their best bet. if they stay there at Luhansk and Donetsk, I doubt they can withstand all the troops that are coming in from the russian side AND the ones that get released from Mariupol in a matter of days...but if they move back a bit, their resupply lines get much more manageable, as does the frontline itself as they use the river as part of their defense.
if they pulled off those three things, chances are actually pretty good that Russia would be forced to make some very costly (moreso than they have been thus far anyway) and hard choices that would force them to admit they can't go much further. meaning Putin is likely to stop being stubborn and prideful sooner rather than later and peace talks might actually get somewhere. if, on the other hand, Ukraine keeps persisting in trying to defend the frontline in a stretched manner, then methinks that no matter how much lend-lease comes in from the West, it's gonna have a horribly hard time reaching their frontlines to be of any good and they might lose a lot more, if the russians finally unfuck their logistics. ofc it's just as possible that they won't, in which case I guess they can just stay exactly where they are, pray that what they got is enough and continue to not be mobile at all.