Russian Invasion of Ukraine Megathread

[JosephStalin]

Most of it isn't refined in Russia but in Bulgaria.

Whoa. Always believed, for some reason, that the USSR had ample refineries as a result of WWII, reasonably well-dispersed throughout the country.

 

[Spicey McHaggis]

Also, By May, Russia will be out of refined petroleum. Its mind boggling considering how much petroleum Russia has, but they have very little refinement capacity, and their ability to move refined product to where its needed is severely hamstrung at this point. Its why the Russian Airforce is MIA right now. They are out of Aviation Fuel. By May, if they are to maintain operational tempo they are going to have to start rationing civilian use of refined petroleum. Or else abandon mechanized warfare entirely.

I'm not so certain they'll run out. The soviets always kept large stockpiles of stuff hidden in case of emergency. I suspect the Russians have kept up with that tradition.

 

[mindlessobserver]

Most of it isn't refined in Russia but in Bulgaria.

Or in Germany itself. Russia is a huge producer of raw and unrefined natural gas and oil. Its in much the same boat as Iran though, in that what refining capacity it does have dates to the post World War 2 era and still uses vacuum tubes in its on site computers. All those pipe lines into Europe? They were two way. Russia sent the raw product, and Europe sent the refined product back. Worked great, cheap for both sides. Until now.

Russia can certainly refine enough fuel to keep its tanks in the field, but not its civilian cars and certainly not its aircraft. Attack Helicopters and Modern Jets burn through shit tons of highly refined product that Russia does not produce independently in the quantities required. They only had enough fuel to sustain air operations at full capacity for 7 days. Which they burned through even faster then that. Its why Ukraine can still fly its own attack helicopters and jets despite being numerically outnumbered by the Russian Air Force.

I said on day 1, all Ukraine had to do to win was blow up the Fuel Tankers.

 

[MG-34]

Whoa. Always believed, for some reason, that the USSR had ample refineries as a result of WWII, reasonably well-dispersed throughout the country.

I think a lot of that legacy stuff is still there but couldn't keep up with modern needs. The Bulgarian refineries are Russian owned, however.

 

[Spicey McHaggis]

Whoa. Always believed, for some reason, that the USSR had ample refineries as a result of WWII, reasonably well-dispersed throughout the country.

Keep in mind the country they were dispersed in used to be much larger. A fair amount of that capacity is now in the post soviet states.

 

[JosephStalin]

I think a lot of that legacy stuff is still there but couldn't keep up with modern needs. The Bulgarian refineries are Russian owned, however.

How does the crude oil, and later the refined products go between Russia and Bulgaria?

I always enjoy learning about new areas. Thanks!

 

[Übertroon]

Interview with Col Douglas MacGregor. interesting that Desert Storm vets like him and Scott Ritter treat it as self evident that Ukraine is turbofucked whereas GWoT veterans rate the Ukrainians. Suspect it is this issue that Ukranian forces are well trained and equipped for tactical battles whereas Russia is utterly dominant on the operational level in terms of air power, mobility and long range fires.

(Original, long)

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@JosephStalin interested in your thoughts as someone from that generation

Both Scott Ritter and Douglas MacGregor are regulars on RT though. Not saying that necessarily mean they are wrong, but they've been known quantities for years, and should not be taken as a surprise that they lean towards the Russian narrative.

Plenty of high profile men in their generation who have completely different opinions. For example James Mattis was unfortunately such a warhawk that he misled the president about the presence of US troops in syria.
Almost all the joint chiefs of staff is from the same generation, and they've all participated in prolonging the forever wars and arming Ukraine

 

[MG-34]

How does the crude oil, and later the refined products go between Russia and Bulgaria?

I always enjoy learning about new areas. Thanks!

It seems like it's delivered by tanker to this facility

Lukoil Burgas Refinery and Petrochemical complex, Bulgaria

The Lukoil Burgas refinery in Bulgaria is one of the biggest oil refineries in southeast Europe. Lukoil Neftochim Burgas is the owner and operator.

www.nsenergybusiness.com

 

[Richardface]

Or in Germany itself. Russia is a huge producer of raw and unrefined natural gas and oil. Its in much the same boat as Iran though, in that what refining capacity it does have dates to the post World War 2 era and still uses vacuum tubes in its on site computers. All those pipe lines into Europe? They were two way. Russia sent the raw product, and Europe sent the refined product back. Worked great, cheap for both sides. Until now.

Russia can certainly refine enough fuel to keep its tanks in the field, but not its civilian cars and certainly not its aircraft. Attack Helicopters and Modern Jets burn through shit tons of highly refined product that Russia does not produce independently in the quantities required. They only had enough fuel to sustain air operations at full capacity for 7 days. Which they burned through even faster then that. Its why Ukraine can still fly its own attack helicopters and jets despite being numerically outnumbered by the Russian Air Force.

I said on day 1, all Ukraine had to do to win was blow up the Fuel Tankers.

Russia can refine 6,736,000 barrels per day

Russia - oil refinery capacity 2020 | Statista

In 2020, Russian oil refineries produced approximately 6.7 million barrels per day, marking a slight increase compared to the previous year.

www.statista.com

Germany, as a point of comparison, can do about 2,000,000 bpd of refining, and seems to have the largest capacity in europe from my eyeballing of this list

https://www.mckinseyenergyinsights.com/resources/refinery-reference-desk/european-refineries/

You should probably check your daydreams aren't immediately falsifiable before sharing them

 

[Techpriest]

Both Scott Ritter and Douglas MacGregor are regulars on RT though. Not saying that necessarily mean they are wrong, but they've been known quantities for years, and should not be taken as a surprise that they lean towards the Russian narrative.

Plenty of high profile men in their generation who have completely different opinions. For example James Mattis was unfortunately such a warhawk that he misled the president about the presence of US troops in syria.
Almost all the joint chiefs of staff is from the same generation, and they've all participated in prolonging the forever wars and arming Ukraine

It's also important to note that Ritter is a convicted pedophile and has an actual Russian honeypot as a wife. Anything he says should immediately be suspect as fuck.

 

[Stoneheart]

Sorry for the double post, but small arms and rifle ammo doesn't mean shit. The important shit is missiles, ordinance.

thats a modern western idea. back in the cold war small arms did matter, but then Nato moved to bad rifles.

The important shit is missiles, ordinance. Lot numbers, UXO rate as well as the communications speeds on the electronics found in aircraft wrecks and any ground based radars, artillery computers and SAM systems left in Ukraine.

why should you find anything like this in an ifv?

Whoa. Always believed, for some reason, that the USSR had ample refineries as a result of WWII, reasonably well-dispersed throughout the country.

they never mastered that.

Russia is a huge producer of raw and unrefined natural gas and oil. Its in much the same boat as Iran though, in that what refining capacity it does have dates to the post World War 2 era and still uses vacuum tubes in its on site computers.

refining nat gas isnt a big issue, you can run pretty much everything with raw gas. Russia never developed any modern ways of producing base chemicals. they used old as Nazi german plants till the 90s. even their more modern factories run on east german tech.

hey were two way. Russia sent the raw product, and Europe sent the refined product back. Worked great, cheap for both sides. Until now.

thats oil, not gas. germany has some of the most modern fuel refineries while russia cooks its domestic fuel production in very basic plants.

ussia can certainly refine enough fuel to keep its tanks in the field, but not its civilian cars and certainly not its aircraft.

those are 3 different qualities of fuel. Tanks can run on pretty much any oil while cars need more refined fuel. jet fuel is highly complicated to produce and russia lack the oil to do it easily.

They only had enough fuel to sustain air operations at full capacity for 7 days. Which they burned through even faster then that. Its why Ukraine can still fly its own attack helicopters and jets despite being numerically outnumbered by the Russian Air Force.

shipping from china via rail is super expensive.

How does the crude oil, and later the refined products go between Russia and Bulgaria?

thats complicated. you need a mix of crude to produce Kerosine in meaningful amounts. making gasoline from oil is oretty complicated and most people dont know that there are different types of oil.

 

[Spicey McHaggis]

thats a modern western idea. back in the cold war small arms did matter, but then Nato moved to bad rifles.

Lol wut? Rifles haven't been the primary killer on the battlefield since long before the cold war. Some of the nato rifles may have been better than others, but I'd hardly call them shit.

 

[Smity Werbenjagermanjensen]

It's also important to note that Ritter is a convicted pedophile and has an actual Russian honeypot as a wife. Anything he says should immediately be suspect as fuck.

So, we got alphabet people firmly on Ukraine's side and pedophiles on Russia's side.

Meh I guess it evens out.

 

[JosephStalin]

It seems like it's delivered by tanker to this facility

Lukoil Burgas Refinery and Petrochemical complex, Bulgaria

The Lukoil Burgas refinery in Bulgaria is one of the biggest oil refineries in southeast Europe. Lukoil Neftochim Burgas is the owner and operator.

www.nsenergybusiness.com

Thanks much! Bookmarked the site.

 

[Stoneheart]

Lol wut? Rifles haven't been the primary killer on the battlefield since long before the cold war. Some of the nato rifles may have been better than others, but I'd hardly call them shit.

Nato had the G3 in europe till the end of the cold war. the perfect gun.

 

[Feline Supremacist]

@Chandelier (reply bug, it bugs me)

Are we talking about the people tied to trees, naked from the ass down, and whipped by soldiers/civvie soldiers?
Re: planes, not only do you need people to fly them, you need engineers. The US just seems content dumping a bunch of guns and equipment a lot of people don't know how to use. When they break down you don't have anyone to repair them and no factories to make new parts.

No I'm talking about the civilian looking murdered people in Ukrainian controlled areas. War doesn't bring out the worst in just soldiers.

Yes, that's why those planes require a dedicated and trained crew to service those payload configs as well as the Pratt and Whitney engines. We sell those fighters, but we don't sell other countries the same ones we use, with the same electronics and capabilities. And they aren't idiot proof either.

Both Scott Ritter and Douglas MacGregor are regulars on RT though. Not saying that necessarily mean they are wrong, but they've been known quantities for years, and should not be taken as a surprise that they lean towards the Russian narrative.

Plenty of high profile men in their generation who have completely different opinions. For example James Mattis was unfortunately such a warhawk that he misled the president about the presence of US troops in syria.
Almost all the joint chiefs of staff is from the same generation, and they've all participated in prolonging the forever wars and arming Ukraine

What guys like MacGregor are saying Russia can a do a Desert Storm if they wanted, the GWOT generals are assuming a long pacification and extended occupation. Both may be right about some things, wrong about others.

It's also important to note that Ritter is a convicted pedophile and has an actual Russian honeypot as a wife. Anything he says should immediately be suspect as fuck.

16 year old girls are in the realm of hebephilia and 16 was legal in the US until very recently. Stop trying to make him out to be a baby rapist. What is important is that's he's a Middle Eastern expert, not a Russian one.

 

[Richardface]

So, we got alphabet people firmly on Ukraine's side and pedophiles on Russia's side.

Meh I guess it evens out.

You mean, we have paedophiles on both sides

 

[Spicey McHaggis]

Nato had the G3 in europe till the end of the cold war. the perfect gun.

It's not bad, but it's far from perfect lol. Optics mounting is sub optimal, the roller delayed blowback leads to more recoil than other rifles in the same category, and it's relatively large compared to several other contemporary rifles.

 

[MG-34]

why should you find anything like this in an ifv?

IFVs? No. The real NATO prizes are things like the downed KA-52s, C3 trailers as well as the pantsir and modern TORs. The Russians better pray none of those hypersonics didn't crash without exploding as that would be a great catch since that one MiG defection in Japan.

 

[mindlessobserver]

Russia can refine 6,736,000 barrels per day

Russia - oil refinery capacity 2020 | Statista

In 2020, Russian oil refineries produced approximately 6.7 million barrels per day, marking a slight increase compared to the previous year.

www.statista.com

Germany, as a point of comparison, can do about 2,000,000 bpd of refining, and seems to have the largest capacity in europe from my eyeballing of this list

https://www.mckinseyenergyinsights.com/resources/refinery-reference-desk/european-refineries/

You should probably check your daydreams aren't immediately falsifiable before sharing them

There is refined oil, and there is the stuff you can put in your car. My daydreams are fine. The simple truth is Russia's refineries are designed to produce 1950's grade Mazut. Good enough to put in a soviet shitbox. Not good enough to put in a modern MIG fighter. The Fuel that Europeans put in their cars comes from Germany, Italy, Saudi Arabia and the United States. Not Russia. The Fuel from Russia is solely used for powering electrical plants and providing heating and cooking gas. Or base product that is refined domestically to supplement imports from North America and the Middle East.

Russia's domestic refining capacity is fine for peace time needs, but not for the war time tempo. There is also a serious issue in that Russia has no way to transport the refined product it IS capable of producing to where its needed. That is another issue separate to their capacity limits. Ukraine has made fuel tankers the primary target of their partisan forces. Russia is running out of transport capacity that can move the refined product to where its needed. Further hindering their capacity,