If Russia loses, or, more likely, suffers a pyrrhic victory in Ukraine, and then Finland joins NATO, which would likely cause Sweden to join in as well, we're in for a very entertaining Pro-Russia meltdown over the Summer. Won't really tip the balance, since Finland and Sweden are already Globohomo, but will piss Russia off.
Biggest issue Russia faces is they only sent 200k troops max and seem dead set on not committing more Russian troops (Mercs and Chechens are free game however), assuming they sent that max of 200k, it's not a leap at all to assume at least 25k of those are either dead, wounded, or captured at this point, might even be conservative depending on who you believe.
I'm convinced the only city besides Mariupol Russia is realistically seriously thinking about taking at this point is Kharkiv, maybe Zaporizhzhia but that's going to be a lot trickier to encircle thanks to being divided by the Dnieper and encircling is mandatory for a city of it's size given over a month and a half to ready it's defenses.
Russia wouldn't have completely pulled out of Kiev and the northeastern front if it mainly served as a pinning of Ukrainian troops there. It was Russia moving all it's troops to the only significantly successful front to salvage something that could be called a victory.