War Invasion of Ukraine News Megathread - Thread is only for articles and discussion of articles, general discussion thread is still in Happenings.

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President Joe Biden on Tuesday said that the United States will impose sanctions “far beyond” the ones that the United States imposed in 2014 following the annexation of the Crimean peninsula.

“This is the beginning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine,” Biden said in a White House speech, signaling a shift in his administration’s position. “We will continue to escalate sanctions if Russia escalates,” he added.

Russian elites and their family members will also soon face sanctions, Biden said, adding that “Russia will pay an even steeper price” if Moscow decides to push forward into Ukraine. Two Russian banks and Russian sovereign debt will also be sanctioned, he said.

Also in his speech, Biden said he would send more U.S. troops to the Baltic states as a defensive measure to strengthen NATO’s position in the area.

Russia shares a border with Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.

A day earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered troops to go into the separatist Donetsk and Lugansk regions in eastern Ukraine after a lengthy speech in which he recognized the two regions’ independence.

Western powers decried the move and began to slap sanctions on certain Russian individuals, while Germany announced it would halt plans to go ahead with the Russia-to-Germany Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

At home, Biden is facing bipartisan pressure to take more extensive actions against Russia following Putin’s decision. However, a recent poll showed that a majority of Americans believe that sending troops to Ukraine is a “bad idea,” and a slim minority believes it’s a good one.

All 27 European Union countries unanimously agreed on an initial list of sanctions targeting Russian authorities, said French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, and EU foreign affairs head Josep Borell claimed the package “will hurt Russia … a lot.”

Earlier Tuesday, Borell asserted that Russian troops have already entered the Donbas region, which comprises Donetsk and Lugansk, which are under the control of pro-Russia groups since 2014.

And on Tuesday, the Russian Parliament approved a Putin-back plan to use military force outside of Russia’s borders as Putin further said that Russia confirmed it would recognize the expanded borders of Lugansk and Donetsk.

“We recognized the states,” the Russian president said. “That means we recognized all of their fundamental documents, including the constitution, where it is written that their [borders] are the territories at the time the two regions were part of Ukraine.”

Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Putin said that Ukraine is “not interested in peaceful solutions” and that “every day, they are amassing troops in the Donbas.”

Meanwhile, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday morning again downplayed the prospect of a Russian invasion and proclaimed: “There will be no war.”

“There will not be an all-out war against Ukraine, and there will not be a broad escalation from Russia. If there is, then we will put Ukraine on a war footing,” he said in a televised address.

The White House began to signal that they would shift their own position on whether it’s the start of an invasion.

“We think this is, yes, the beginning of an invasion, Russia’s latest invasion into Ukraine,” said Jon Finer, the White House deputy national security adviser in public remarks. “An invasion is an invasion and that is what is underway.”

For weeks, Western governments have been claiming Moscow would invade its neighbor after Russia gathered some 150,000 troops along the countries’ borders. They alleged that the Kremlin would attempt to come up with a pretext to attack, while some officials on Monday said Putin’s speech recognizing the two regions was just that.

But Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters Tuesday that Russia’s “latest invasion” of Ukraine is threatening stability in the region, but he asserted that Putin can “still avoid a full blown, tragic war of choice.”

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Nope but how long did it take for Russians to pull out of Afganistan ? Russians cant keep going indefinetly but they can keep going until they run out of weapons, and thats assuming they arent able to bypass critical components sanctions to atleast small level. It can go on for long time.
Oh, for fuck's sake.

Modern Russia is NOT the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union had many different nations, each with millions underneath their regimes, taking orders from Moscow. The Soviet Union was an economic competitor of the USA, today's Russia can't even make more money than New York State. Modern Russia also doesn't have that much in terms of manpower, especially since their own numbers have been going down due to decades of alcohol abuse and birth control knocking down their replacement rates to pathetic lows. Not to mention the runaway corruption in the economy and the military that Putin did NOT put an end to, which is only now beginning to bite his military operations in the ass.

It can't go on for a long time. Especially since unlike the USSR, which was mostly on its own, modern Russia needs the international market to survive. And if they rely on China to make up for all their lost trade, well, that will only end with their nation becoming Northern China as a result. The CCP doesn't help others out of altruism, they only help others to benefit themselves, and they will obviously bilk the Russians for all they're worth.
 
"Act of a good will", as they continued shelling Ukrainian cities and bombing them with cruise missiles
Do they really think people would just forget? Fucking assholes.
In fairness Peskov looks like he's dying (which he deserves, frankly given his job lying for monke, and I suppose Russia still has some vodka / weed if he has any qualms), but perhaps the official who directed him to say that found the cynicism tickling. Perhaps he was asked about the murder of the civilians at the train station, but his answer (the Ukies did it) would be so predictable.

Oh, for fuck's sake.

Modern Russia is NOT the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union had many different nations, each with millions underneath their regimes, taking orders from Moscow. The Soviet Union was an economic competitor of the USA, today's Russia can't even make more money than New York State. Modern Russia also doesn't have that much in terms of manpower, especially since their own numbers have been going down due to decades of alcohol abuse and birth control knocking down their replacement rates to pathetic lows. Not to mention the runaway corruption in the economy and the military that Putin did NOT put an end to, which is only now beginning to bite his military operations in the ass.

It can't go on for a long time. Especially since unlike the USSR, which was mostly on its own, modern Russia needs the international market to survive. And if they rely on China to make up for all their lost trade, well, that will only end with their nation becoming Northern China as a result. The CCP doesn't help others out of altruism, they only help others to benefit themselves, and they will obviously bilk the Russians for all they're worth.

Russia is selling its gas at a very poor rate to PRC who are likely making the most out of this of anyone, just on that. The Chinese was also sell, and are, selling second rate chip sets no one else wants, even credit card tech ffs. This trade is almost colonial in its exploitiveness. They have the RF over a barrell. It's defeating Russia in a way as clearly as Ukraine shooting down SU-37s with museum age BUKs.
 
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"Act of a good will", as they continued shelling Ukrainian cities and bombing them with cruise missiles
Do they really think people would just forget? Fucking assholes.
its cope
its like saying "napoleon ordered the grande armee to leave moscow as an act of good will towards the tsar" or "hitler ordered army group north to abandon the siege of leningrad as an act of good will towards stalin"
 
They have no real direction as a nation, without bitterness they have no national idea. So the only way for them to cope with existential dread is to drag everyone else down with them into filth.
And at the same time they believe everyone else in the world is jealous and envious of them.
The Soviet Union was an economic competitor of the USA, today's Russia can't even make more money than New York State.
Not even that. The Soviet economy was a shitshow and I could talk all day about it. It's just that back then they could actually maintain a somewhat competitive army and keep the population in line because as you state, they had resources and manpower. The average citizen had little access to pretty much anything, but they could churn out tanks and AKs just fine and waste funds on deadend projects because they had all the ability to throw resources around with brute force (through extensive growth typical to command economies, as opposed to capitalist intensive growth). But you couldn't keep that shitshow around forever and now in the 21st century their old mentality is getting a kick in the pants.
 
And at the same time they believe everyone else in the world is jealous and envious of them.

Not even that. The Soviet economy was a shitshow and I could talk all day about it. It's just that back then they could actually maintain a somewhat competitive army and keep the population in line because as you state, they had resources and manpower. The average citizen had little access to pretty much anything, but they could churn out tanks and AKs just fine and waste funds on deadend projects because they had all the ability to throw resources around with brute force (through extensive growth typical to command economies, as opposed to capitalist intensive growth). But you couldn't keep that shitshow around forever and now in the 21st century their old mentality is getting a kick in the pants.
Stalin started copying Fords and Packards which only accelerated with lend-lease. Stalin was carried out in an armored ZiS which was a Packard with metric bolts and a slightly different grill. Avtovaz were the result of an Italian government deal resulted in a thick metalled comfy seated car based on the FIAT 131. It resulted in the West, particularly Italy getting a lot of terrible Soviet steel. Thank to Togliatti, Soviet citizens got good cars, the Euro's Miafiore rotted to ell. Now they did develop a class of rugged mid sized GAZ cars with long travel suspension, and the ZAZ Zaporozhets despite their FIAT resemblance were their work, despite the FIAT resemblance. They seemed fairly poor at consumer technology, like the economy was a war economy primarily. I might be wrong, but it seems like that to me.

Russia has all these parastatals that can churn out tanks and naval vessels, but I suspect they're not doing too much, given how sanctions and Western divestment. They cannot obviously get the parts from COMECON members nor from the other SSRs, if they cannot get the parts themselves somehow. Now maybe they can scavenge parts., but that's not gonna win wars. The Germans near the end of WW2 took captured vehicles and museum vehicles to the front as they'd nothing else. I wonder if any T-64s or earlier will make an appearance. They'd be better built for one thing. I wonder if any Bulgarians or others are ripping off the Russians selling their own old Warsaw Pact crap to them. Maybe not. That'd be too desperate.

Turns out it's all because Ukrainians didn't want to share the recipe for Ukrainian Borscht...
What do you guys think is going to be the next piece of damning evidence that Ukrainians are nazis?

Fuck, she's sauced.
 
This video raises a very good point that I haven't seen mentioned yet:

If Kiev was indeed a "feint" by Russia then it might actually be one of the worst feints in military history

Ignoring all the international prestige they lose from giving up ground, the vast majority of the Ukrainian armed forces are still operational and are gearing up for a titanic confrontation in the east, so clearly their plan of "wiping out enemy forces near Kiev" was a failure.

Whatever angle you look at this from, Russia failed

For real, if you still believe Russia wasn't banking on blitzing the capital you're either autistic, gullible, or (more likely) a mix of both
There was a time during the first couple of weeks that I thought Kiev was possibly a feint to encircle the east, but that would involve the Russians keeping troops there to tie up the Ukrainians instead of hastily withdrawing in poor order leaving behind plenty of their own equipment and dead civilians while coping hard about how it's all going to plan. It's the equivalent of saying Army Group Center's push to Moscow was just a diversion to grab the Caucasus oilfields and the Germans never intended to actually take it, except the Germans managed to actually pull off some massive encirclements instead of coping and seething about how they'll do it in two more weeks.
 
Fighting globohomo one child at a time.
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Russia is selling its gas at a very poor rate to PRC who are likely making the most out of this of anyone, just on that. The Chinese was also sell, and are, selling second rate chip sets no one else wants, even credit card tech ffs. This trade is almost colonial in its exploitiveness. They have the RF over a barrell. It's defeating Russia in a way as clearly as Ukraine shooting down SU-37s with museum age BUKs.
So basically, the Chinese are swindling the Russians in this trade deal, and the Russians don't mind so long as they have a trade partner? Damn, this is desperate. As I said, if this keeps going on, Russia will become a Chinese colony, akin to how India was to Great Britain during the latter's height of power.

And at the same time they believe everyone else in the world is jealous and envious of them.
Their nation is such a shithole, that they have to convince themselves that they're the best at something, other than alcoholism.

Not even that. The Soviet economy was a shitshow and I could talk all day about it. It's just that back then they could actually maintain a somewhat competitive army and keep the population in line because as you state, they had resources and manpower. The average citizen had little access to pretty much anything, but they could churn out tanks and AKs just fine and waste funds on deadend projects because they had all the ability to throw resources around with brute force (through extensive growth typical to command economies, as opposed to capitalist intensive growth). But you couldn't keep that shitshow around forever and now in the 21st century their old mentality is getting a kick in the pants.
Back then, they could maintain the illusion that they were close to America in economic output. Now? They're not even close. But their leadership caste full of Soviet-era boomers don't see it that way, and they think they can bring down the West by a simple show of force. But then again, this is the same caste of leaders who think butt-rape builds character for the soldiers, so it's not like they're grounded in any form of reality.

Fighting globohomo one child at a time.
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Perhaps next time these invaders get captured, someone ought to give them the snip? It seems that they just can't help being degenerate filth.
 
In the recent decade a lot of Russian upper-crust tried to revive Tsarist pageantry while also trying to glorify anything Soviet as far as they could. A lot of movies and day time drama about Tsarist times, elaborate costumes and fashions (all French really) St. Pete has seen a lot of work to restore a lot of architecture to Tsarist splendor. The elites started holding debutante balls.

As far as army goes, Russia changed parade uniforms back to high neck collars that was fairly obscure and short lived Soviet uniform, which looked a lot like Tsarist uniforms, essentially building an image of the officer corp that held in highest esteem the concept of honor and nobility (since all officers were nobility). Also traditional Tsarist military officer's salute was "I retain/have my honor".

Well, 2022, UK starts with bringing petty housegoods to Russian embassy, referencing the looting by RF forces. Same action in Lviv, they even brought a dog house (I've posted a pic of Russian truck) stealing that shit as well. This is becoming a real meme, Russian military a gang of bandits looting most trivial shit that civilized people take for granted (automatic laundry machine, food mixers etc)

A few weeks back one Russian officer, commander of tank battalion or brigade just shot himself instead of following orders. It makes you wander if the guy was simply too embarassed to be a part of this shitshow Russia calls military.


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on the subject of toilets, old woman mentioned that when Russian occupied her village, they squatted in her house and asked for a bucket. When she asked why they need a bucket, they said for shitting. They were real surprised to find out that all private houses had inside toilets and running water.
 
In the recent decade a lot of Russian upper-crust tried to revive Tsarist pageantry while also trying to glorify anything Soviet as far as they could. A lot of movies and day time drama about Tsarist times, elaborate costumes and fashions (all French really) St. Pete has seen a lot of work to restore a lot of architecture to Tsarist splendor. The elites started holding debutante balls.

As far as army goes, Russia changed parade uniforms back to high neck collars that was fairly obscure and short lived Soviet uniform, which looked a lot like Tsarist uniforms, essentially building an image of the officer corp that held in highest esteem the concept of honor and nobility (since all officers were nobility). Also traditional Tsarist military officer's salute was "I retain/have my honor".

Well, 2022, UK starts with bringing petty housegoods to Russian embassy, referencing the looting by RF forces. Same action in Lviv, they even brought a dog house (I've posted a pic of Russian truck) stealing that shit as well. This is becoming a real meme, Russian military a gang of bandits looting most trivial shit that civilized people take for granted (automatic laundry machine, food mixers etc)

A few weeks back one Russian officer, commander of tank battalion or brigade just shot himself instead of following orders. It makes you wander if the guy was simply too embarassed to be a part of this shitshow Russia calls military.


View attachment 3158144 View attachment 3158146


on the subject of toilets, old woman mentioned that when Russian occupied her village, they squatted in her house and asked for a bucket. When she asked why they need a bucket, they said for shitting. They were real surprised to find out that all private houses had inside toilets and running water.
I like this protest, it's some powerful imagery.
 
Zhirinovsky, leader of Russian communist part, openly boy lover, with family living safely in Switzerland, Vlad's main clown is officially dead.

The body was opened for viewing with Vlad showing up, but shots of him near the coffin is legit like find what's different with this picture (one hint: both guards are gone)

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He's probably the most paranoid man on the planet right now.
 
"Рашистські" - a portmanteau of "Раша" (transliteration of the word "Russia" in Cyrillic) and "фашистські" (Ukrainian spelling of "fascist").

So basically something like "Russcist occupiers". A reinterpretation of the old Soviet thought-idea "fascist occupiers", to counter-act the Russian long-lasting narrative of everyone they don't like being a Nazi.
 
Zhirinovsky, leader of Russian communist part, openly boy lover, with family living safely in Switzerland, Vlad's main clown is officially dead.

The body was opened for viewing with Vlad showing up, but shots of him near the coffin is legit like find what's different with this picture (one hint: both guards are gone)

View attachment 3158179View attachment 3158180
he wasnt the leader of the communist party, that's sjuganov
zhirinovsky was the leader of the liberal democratic party, a small meme party with no real influence (all opposition parties in russia are thinly veiled putin supporters, otherwise they would get dissolved and banned)
 
Incredibly informative article on the Russian invasion of Ukraine/Russia's "Special Military Operation" through the eyes of International Law. Archived.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: an international law perspective​

BY DR ALISON PERT - APR 08, 2022 9:00 AM AEST

Snapshot​

  • While Russia’s military operation in Ukraine is almost universally condemned as an unambiguously unlawful act of aggression, the conflict raises an unusual number of issues of international law.
  • In the proceedings in the International Court of Justice, Russia denied using alleged genocide as a justification for its operations, asserting that it was acting in self-defence. Consideration is given to the possible justifications for the invasion, in light of the rules on self-defence.
  • Media reports suggest several breaches of the laws of war have occurred, particularly by Russia.
On 24 February 2022, eight years after seizing Crimea, Russia began a ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine with the apparent aim of acquiring the whole of Ukraine and (re-)absorbing it into the Russian Federation. While almost universally condemned as an unambiguously unlawful act of aggression, the conflict raises an unusual number of issues of international law. This article outlines just some of those issues, including the various justifications claimed by Vladimir Putin, issues of secession, statehood and recognition, the conduct of hostilities, and the participation of foreign fighters.
Ukraine has a long and complicated history but a few points should be noted here. In the middle ages Kiev was at the heart of ‘Kievan Rus’, a federation that included parts of present-day Russia and Belarus, and which is regarded as a key part of their common cultural heritage.[1] Ukraine became part of the Russian Empire and later the USSR, becoming independent in 1991. Its eastern region of Donbas has long had a predominantly Russian-speaking population; when Russia invaded Crimea in 2014, pro-Russian separatist groups in Donbas declared the independence of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DPR and LPR), and with Russian military support have been fighting the Ukraine government ever since. Three days before the 2022 invasion, Putin recognised the two Republics as independent states.

A. The use of force

The use of force – prohibited aggression

As is well-known, the use of armed force is prohibited by art. 2(4) of the United Nations Charter and customary international law, except in lawful self-defence, or when authorised by the UN Security Council.[2] There was clearly no Security Council authorisation here so the focus is on self-defence, considered below. But Putin initially justified the action on another ground – the prevention of genocide.

The prevention of genocide

On several occasions in February 2022, Putin and his ministers accused Ukraine of committing genocide in Donbas, and declared that Russia’s military action was necessary to protect the population there.[3] Ukraine is challenging this in the International Court of Justice, arguing that under the Genocide Convention, a false allegation of genocide provides no lawful excuse for Russia’s actions.[4] On 16 March 2022, the ICJ found this argument ‘plausible’ for the purposes of indicating provisional measures, ordering Russia to suspend its operation.[5] It is far too early to tell how the Court will rule on the merits of the case, but as it noted:
‘it is doubtful that the Convention, in light of its object and purpose, authorizes a Contracting Party’s unilateral use of force in the territory of another State for the purpose of preventing or punishing an alleged genocide.’[6]
Although Russia refused to take part in the ICJ hearing, it sent a written submission to the Court in which it denied using alleged genocide as a justification for its operations, asserting instead that it was acting in self-defence.[7] This claim has several aspects, described below.

Self-defence – the basic rules

It is well settled that for a state to use force lawfully in self-defence, it (or another state which has sought its assistance) must have been the victim of an armed attack, and it can only respond with such force as is necessary and proportionate.[8] It must also report its actions to the UN Security Council,[9] which Russia did on 24 February.[10] However, it is unclear what exactly Russia is claiming. Its letter to the Security Council refers to an attached speech by Putin, which obliquely raises three possible justifications: defence of Russia itself, defence of the DPR and LPR, and defence of Russian nationals in Ukraine.[11]

Defence of Russia itself – pre-emptive self-defence

There is an unresolved debate about whether the armed attack, necessary to enliven the right of self-defence, must be in progress or at least have recently occurred, or whether a state can act in anticipatory self-defence when an armed attack is imminent. There has clearly been no actual or threatened armed attack by Ukraine against Russia, and Putin does not claim that an attack is imminent. Several passages in his speech suggest he is claiming to act in ‘pre-emptive’ self-defence – action to prevent an attack which is not imminent and indeed may never occur – in response to the threat posed by NATO’s expansion into territories bordering on Russia.[12]
Although practised by Israel and the United States, pre-emptive self-defence is not considered lawful because of its potential for abuse and escalation of the conflict, and because the key requirements of necessity and proportionality of the response cannot be measured.[13] It is not compatible with the wording of art. 51 of the UN Charter and its customary equivalent, which set out the requirements for lawful self-defence, and there is no evidence that a new rule of customary international law, permitting pre-emptive self-defence, has developed. This claim of defence of Russia therefore has no legal basis.

Defence of DPR and LPR – collective self-defence

Collective self-defence – defending another state – is lawful if the other state is the victim of an armed attack and requests assistance.[14] Putin is claiming that the DPR and LPR have been attacked by Ukraine and have requested assistance from Russia.[15] Russia’s recognition of the two entities as independent states on 21 February was clearly designed to support this claim. However, only one other state appears to have formally recognised the putative republics, which continue to be regarded by the rest of the international community as part of Ukraine.[16]

Defence of Russian nationals in Ukraine – protection of nationals abroad

Putin also seems to be making a wider claim that Russia is acting to protect all ‘Russians’ in Ukraine, whether in the so-called DPR and LPR or not.[17] ‘Russians’ in this context include not only Russian nationals but all those of Russian ethnicity, who form a substantial minority in eastern Ukraine.[18] In the 19th century, the forcible protection by a state of its nationals abroad was commonplace and accepted, but few jurists argue that its legality survived the restrictions placed on the use of force by the UN Charter.[19] Others view it as one aspect of self-defence, where the object of the armed attack is not the territory of the victim state but its nationals abroad, but there is no settled position.[20] And even on this view, to be lawful, Russia would have to show that there had been an armed attack by Ukraine; given that the attacks alleged by Russia are in response to an insurgency and a continuing civil war, that might be difficult to establish. In addition, it could only apply to attacks on Russian nationals – there is no support for the view that it could justify defence of anyone who was ethnically Russian.[21]

Necessity and proportionality

If there has been no armed attack, then the question of necessity and proportionality of the response does not arise. But putting the Russian case at its highest – that the DPR and LPR have been attacked – then a response which has Russia bombarding cities far from those areas, and engaging in a full-scale ground invasion, is clearly disproportionate.[22]

Russia’s irredentist claims

This leads to yet another implied justification for Russia’s actions – an irredentist claim to restore Russia to its former glory by reclaiming Ukraine and other territories populated by ethnic Russians.[23] Putin is on record as decrying the collapse of the Soviet Union and the loss of Soviet territories including Ukraine, which he says was historically Russian.[24] He seems to be asserting that this, and his claim that Russia and Ukraine are one people, somehow give Russia the legal right to use force to ‘reclaim’ its lost territories. There is no basis in international law for such an argument. Ukraine is a sovereign state, and one of the principal attributes of sovereignty is the right to enjoy territorial integrity and political independence.

Intervention by invitation

If the DPR and LPR are not states, it might be argued that their representatives (pro-Russian separatists) could nevertheless invite Russia’s assistance in the insurgency. However, in such a case the separatists would be characterised as insurgents against the Ukrainian state, and the ICJ has firmly dismissed any suggestion that an opposition movement could lawfully invite outside military assistance.[25]

B. Russia’s recognition of DPR and LPR

Remedial secession

Russia’s recognition of the two republics as independent states raises other issues of international law. As a general rule, states are free to recognise or not recognise a new state.[26] But where, as here, the putative state is formed through secession from a parent state (Ukraine), without that state’s consent, then recognition may be a violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty.[27] The legality of secession in international law is hotly contested, but even those states that admit the possibility tend to confine it to exceptional cases of ‘remedial’ secession, where an identifiable people has been subjected to appalling treatment by the parent state.[28] Putin seems to be claiming that the Russian-speaking population of Donbas is a ‘people’ entitled to self-determination and to remedial secession because of, for example, the alleged genocide against it committed by Ukraine.[29] But all the available evidence suggests that the conditions for remedial secession, assuming it exists, are not met in eastern Ukraine.

Statehood

Even if entitled to secede, an entity must meet certain criteria in order to constitute a state in international law. The minimum, ‘Montevideo’ criteria are that it must have a permanent population, a territory, an effective government, and independence.[30] The DPR and LPR may have a population and a defined territory, but their self-declared governments do not control the whole of that territory and they are so heavily supported by Russia that they could not be said to be independent.[31]
A further condition for statehood is that the state must not have been created in violation of international law – notably a jus cogens norm such as the prohibition of aggression. This is complemented by a duty on all states not to recognise the result of a jus cogens violation,[32] as illustrated by the UN General Assembly’s call on member states not to recognise as lawful Russia’s seizure of Crimea in 2014.[33] Russia’s documented military support of the separatists in the Donbas region since 2014[34] would most likely also qualify as an unlawful use of force against Ukraine, precluding international recognition of DPR and LPR as new states.

C. The conduct of the hostilities

The law of armed conflict/international humanitarian law (‘IHL’)

The situation in Ukraine is clearly an international armed conflict, possibly with a parallel non-international armed conflict between separatist and Ukrainian government forces[35] continuing in the east.[36] Russia and Ukraine are parties to nearly all the major treaties on the laws of war;[37] media reports suggest that several breaches of these have occurred, particularly by Russia.
(a) The intentional targeting of civilians and civilian objects:[38] the destruction of so many residential buildings, and civilian objects such as theatres and schools, suggests that many of these (Russian) attacks were deliberate and prohibited in IHL. Russia has at times claimed that a civilian building was being used by Ukrainian forces; if true, Russia would need to show that the damage to civilians and civilian objects would not be excessive in relation to the military advantage gained by attacking the building.[39] Intentionally targeting cultural or medical facilities is similarly prohibited.[40] The evidence currently emerging as Ukrainian forces retake previously occupied areas suggests that Russia has targeted and executed unarmed civilians.
(b) Indiscriminate attacks: Russia’s apparent use[41] of ‘dumb bombs’ – bombs which lack precision guidance systems – may constitute indiscriminate attacks, which are prohibited.[42] Similarly its rumoured use of cluster bombs:[43] even though Russia is not a party to the treaty banning cluster munitions,[44] their effect in civilian areas could be indiscriminate.
(c) Thermobaric bombs and white phosphorus: neither of these is expressly prohibited. Thermobaric munitions, or ‘vacuum bombs’, are particularly destructive; they first disperse a flammable (and toxic) aerosol which is then ignited to produce a huge blast that sucks up the surrounding oxygen, creating a vacuum and obliterating or causing horrendous injuries to all those in the vicinity.[45] Despite this, their use is not per se unlawful, although it has been argued that they fall foul of the IHL restrictions or prohibitions on incendiary and chemical weapons, and on causing unnecessary suffering.[46] White phosphorus can be used to illuminate targets and create smoke screens, but causes extensive burns and poisoning if it comes into contact with human skin. Because of this, some states prohibit its anti-personnel use,[47] but its use is otherwise limited only by the general rules of IHL.[48]
(d) Chemical, biological and nuclear weapons: the US says that Russia is contemplating the deployment of chemical and nuclear weapons in Ukraine.[49] Russia is a party to the Conventions prohibiting chemical and biological weapons,[50] but not the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons 2017.
(e) Mistreatment of prisoners-of-war: Ukraine has broadcast humiliating footage of captured young Russian soldiers,[51] and allegedly deliberately injured Russian prisoners-of-war,[52] in violation of the Third Geneva Convention 1949.[53]

Possible war crimes

Although there is no uniform definition or list of ‘war crimes’, a widely accepted view is that a war crime is a serious breach of the laws and customs of war entailing individual criminal responsibility. They can be prosecuted in domestic courts if the relevant state has established the necessary jurisdiction, or in an international court or tribunal. Already 41 states (including Australia) have referred the situation in Ukraine to the International Criminal Court (‘ICC’), where the Prosecutor has opened an investigation.[54] Neither Russia nor Ukraine is a party to the Rome Statute establishing the ICC,[55] but the Court has jurisdiction because Ukraine has accepted that jurisdiction over all acts on its territory since early 2014.[56]
The Rome Statute contains a list of war crimes covering most of the above violations of IHL,[57] but it does not expressly include indiscriminate attacks or weapons,[58] or the use of chemical, biological and nuclear weapons.[59] A special tribunal established to prosecute war crimes[60] from the conflict might be able to overcome this, if the crimes within its jurisdiction could be drafted carefully enough to avoid breaching the nullum crimen sine lege principle.[61] As Supreme Commander-in-Chief, Putin himself could be prosecuted if he ordered these violations, or failed to prevent acts he knew or ought to have known were occurring.[62] He could not be prosecuted at the ICC for the crime of aggression,[63] but a special tribunal might be given that jurisdiction.

Status of participants in the conflict

The distinction between civilians and combatants is fundamental to IHL. Combatants can be lawfully targeted, at any time – civilians cannot. Provided that they comply with IHL, combatants cannot be prosecuted for their actions during the conflict, whereas civilians can. Civilians who take a direct part in the hostilities have the worst of both worlds: they can be lawfully targeted but have none of the combatant’s privileges such as POW status if captured, or immunity for their acts.[64] The distinction between combatant and civilian becomes blurred in some situations.

Levée en masse

First, as the Russian invasion began, there were reports of Ukrainian civilians arming themselves to repel the invaders.[65] IHL recognises that civilians who spontaneously take up arms on the approach of an enemy, without having time to organise themselves into a regular armed unit (a ‘levée en masse’), are entitled to POW status if captured – provided they carry their arms openly and adhere to IHL.[66] Many hurriedly-formed volunteer groups in Ukraine would have had this status, and others might too as ground troops approach other parts of the country. However, as the invasion progresses, this temporary protection is likely to cease; the Ukrainian government is actively calling on citizens to resist with force, and providing weapons and rudimentary training, so any action is no longer ‘spontaneous’.

Volunteer corps

Secondly, civilians who answer the government’s call and take up arms will be regarded as lawful combatants if they join Ukraine’s armed forces (obviously), or militia or volunteer corps that are part of the armed forces, or if they join ‘other militias and … volunteer corps, including … organized resistance movements.’[67]
Ukraine’s newly formed ‘Territorial Defence Force’ (‘TDF’) would satisfy the criteria for the former category – a militia or volunteer force forming part of the state’s armed forces.[68] The latter category, including an organised resistance movement, has further requirements: the members must be under responsible command, wear a distinctive sign (such as the yellow arm band of the TDF),[69] carry their arms openly, and obey the laws of war.[70] Only if all four conditions are satisfied will the members be entitled to combatant status.

Direct participation in hostilities

Third and as mentioned earlier, in all other cases, a civilian loses their protection if and for as long as they take a direct part in the hostilities.[71] This has proved fiendishly difficult to define, but a simple example would be a civilian driving a military truck carrying ammunition to the front line.[72] Ukrainian civilians wishing to help the war effort therefore need to be mindful of the (very indistinct) line between assistance and direct participation.

Mercenaries and foreign fighters

The conflict is attracting many mercenaries and foreigners, on both sides.[73] For ‘foreign fighters’ to benefit from the combatant’s privilege, they must fall within the categories listed above. For many, that should cause little difficulty as Ukraine is permitting foreign nationals to join the TDF[74] and even its armed forces.[75] Others however must fall within the requirements of an organised resistance movement, or risk being regarded as unlawful combatants. Russia has warned that it will treat any foreign fighter in Ukraine as a mercenary and unlawful combatant.[76]
As to mercenaries, both states are party to Additional Protocol I which expressly denies mercenaries the right to POW status if captured.[77] It defines a mercenary as someone who is specially recruited to fight in the conflict, financially motivated, paid substantially more than their peers in the recruiting state’s armed forces, and not a national, resident or member of the armed forces of either party.[78] Few foreign fighters would be caught by this definition because of the requirement of financial motivation.

D. State responsibility

If it is accepted that the invasion is unlawful, Russia’s international legal responsibility is engaged. In international law it is under a duty to cease the wrongful conduct and make reparation to Ukraine, and orders to this effect are being sought by Ukraine in its ICJ claim described above. In an unusually compressed timetable, the first round of pleadings will be complete in 12 months (Ukraine asked for 3) so we may have a result, at least on the preliminary question of whether the Court has jurisdiction, by mid-2023.
An interesting related question is the responsibility of Belarus for facilitating the invasion, for example by enabling Russian troops to invade northern Ukraine from Belarus territory.[79] Under customary international law, it is unlawful for a state to knowingly assist another state to commit an internationally wrongful act.[80] There is no obvious jurisdictional basis for any claim against Belarus that Ukraine might want to make before the ICJ, as states must expressly agree, somewhere, to have the case heard by the Court. But Ukraine faced the same difficulty with its claim against Russia. It overcame that difficulty, at least for the time being, by framing its complaint as a violation by Russia of the Genocide Convention – and disputes under the Convention can be heard by the ICJ. Whether that imaginative route to jurisdiction is ultimately successful will not be known until the Court’s ruling on jurisdiction and admissibility some time in 2023.

Dr Alison Pert lectures in public international law, international law and the use of armed force, and international humanitarian law at the University of Sydney.​

[1] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-18010123

[2] UN Charter https://www.un.org/en/about-us/un-charter/full-text art. 2(4); https://www.icj-cij.org/public/files/case-related/70/070-19860627-JUD-01-00-EN.pdf para.190.​

[3] https://www.icj-cij.org/public/files/case-related/182/182-20220227-APP-01-00-EN.pdf para. 8.​

[4] Ibid.​

[5] https://www.icj-cij.org/public/files/case-related/182/182-20220316-ORD-01-00-EN.pdf paras. 60, 86.​

[6] Ibid. para. 59.​

[7] https://www.icj-cij.org/public/files/case-related/182/182-20220307-OTH-01-00-EN.pdf para. 16.​

[8] UN Charter art. 51; Nicaragua para. 237; Armed Activities https://www.icj-cij.org/public/files/case-related/116/116-20051219-JUD-01-00-EN.pdf para. 146.

[9] UN Charter art. 51.​

[10] UN Doc. S/2022/154​

https://documents-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N22/268/16/PDF/N2226816.pdf?OpenElement.​

[11] Ibid.​

[12] Ibid. p.6.​

[13] See eg Ashley Deeks, ‘Taming the Doctrine of Pre-emption’ in Marc Weller, Oxford Handbook of the Use of Force in International Law, (OUP 2015) p. 661.​

[14] UN Charter art. 51, Nicaragua para. 232.​

[15] UN Doc. S/2022/154 p.6.​

[16] https://syrianobserver.com/news/736...-of-luhansk-and-donetsk-president-office.html

[17] Ibid.​

[18] Ian Bremmer, ‘The Politics of Ethnicity: Russians in the New Ukraine’ (1994) 46(2) Europe-Asia Studies 261.​

[19] Gray, International Law and the Use of Force (4th ed. OUP 2018) pp. 165-169.​

[20] Ibid.​

[21] Ibid. p. 169.​

[22] See eg Armed Activities, para. 147.​

[23] Vladimir Putin, ‘On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians’, 12 July 2021, http://en.kremlin.ru/misc/66182

[24] Ibid.​

[25] Nicaragua, para. 246.​

[26] James Crawford, Brownlie’s Principles of International Law (9th ed., OUP 2019), p.138.​

[27] Malcolm Shaw, International Law (9th ed., CUP 2021), p. 392.​

[28] Reference re Secession of Quebec https://www.canlii.org/en/ca/scc/doc/1998/1998canlii793/1998canlii793.html , para. 138.​

[29] Eg Russia ICJ submission https://www.icj-cij.org/public/files/case-related/182/182-20220307-OTH-01-00-EN.pdf para. 17; Putin speech UN Doc. S/2022/154.​

[30] Montevideo Convention https://treaties.un.org/doc/Publication/UNTS/LON/Volume 165/v165.pdf p. 19, art 1.​

[31] https://www.crisisgroup.org/europe-...kraine/russia-and-separatists-eastern-ukraine.​

[32] International Law Commission, Articles on State Responsibility https://legal.un.org/ilc/texts/instruments/english/commentaries/9_6_2001.pdf art. 41.​

[33] UNGA A/RES/68/262 (27 March 2014) https://documents-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N13/455/17/PDF/N1345517.pdf?OpenElement.​

[34] Eg https://military-history.fandom.com/wiki/Russian_military_intervention_in_Ukraine_(2014–present) .​

[35] https://www.icrc.org/en/doc/resourc...-ihl-repatriate-bodies-malaysian-airlines.htm

[36] https://web.archive.org/web/20150912102834/https://www.amnesty.org/en/press-releases/2014/09/ukraine-mounting-evidence-war-crimes-and-russian-involvement/

[37] https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/applic/ihl/ihl.nsf/vwTreatiesHistoricalByCountry.xsp

[38] Additional Protocol 1, arts. 51, 52, 85 https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/applic/ihl/ihl.nsf/INTRO/470.​

[39] Ibid.​

[40] Ibid., arts. 12, 53.​

[41] https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03...nnocent-ukrainians-queuing-for-food/100900146

[42] Additional Protocol 1, art. 51 https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/applic/ihl/ihl.nsf/INTRO/470 .​

[43] https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03...-thermobaric-cluster-bombs-missiles/100897730

[44] https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/appl...C08D5B5B9C12574C6002EE0D3&action=openDocument

[45] https://jmvh.org/article/munitions-thermobaric-munitions-and-their-medical-effects/

[46] See eg https://opiniojuris.org/2022/03/18/russian-violations-of-ihl-the-icc-is-not-the-complete-answer/

[47] Eg UK Ministry of Defence, Manual on the LOAC, https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/jsp-383 para. 6.12.6.​

[48] Gary Solis, The Law of Armed Conflict (3rd ed, CUP 2021) pp. 606-608.​

[49] https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/us-...mical-weapons-ukraine-biden/story?id=83648189

[50] CWC 1993 https://www.opcw.org/chemical-weapons-convention , CBW 1972 https://www.un.org/disarmament/biological-weapons

[51] https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/03/16/ukraine-respect-rights-prisoners-war

[52] https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/28/world/ukraine-russia-war?​

[53] GC III https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/appl...3BE01D004C12563CD002D6B3E&action=openDocument art. 13.​

[54] https://www.icc-cpi.int/Pages/item.aspx?name=20220311-prosecutor-statement-ukraine

[55] https://www.icc-cpi.int/NR/rdonlyres/EA9AEFF7-5752-4F84-BE94-0A655EB30E16/0/Rome_Statute_English.pdf

[56] https://www.icc-cpi.int/ukraine.​

[57] Rome Statute art. 8, especially paras. (2)(b)(i), (ii), (iv) and (ix). https://www.icc-cpi.int/NR/rdonlyres/EA9AEFF7-5752-4F84-BE94-0A655EB30E16/0/Rome_Statute_English.pdf

[58] Rome Statute art. 8(2)(b)(xx) refers to these but only applies once the crimes have been included in an annex to the Statute, which has not yet occurred.​

[59] For conflicting views on whether these are covered by paras. (2)(b)(xvii) and (xviii) of art. 8 see eg https://opiniojuris.org/2015/11/05/...-criminalise-chemical-and-biological-weapons/ and https://www.justsecurity.org/27359/icc-islamic-state-chemical-weapons/.​

[60] https://opiniojuris.org/2022/03/16/...traordinary-ukrainian-chamber-for-aggression/

[61] For example, the ICJ has stated that the use of nuclear weapons is not per se unlawful (https://www.icj-cij.org/public/files/case-related/95/095-19960708-ADV-01-00-EN.pdf), so the crime would have to focus on, eg, the inherently indiscriminate nature of the weapon.​

[62] See eg Emily Crawford and Alison Pert, International Humanitarian Law (2nd ed. CUP 2020) pp. 284-287.​

[63] Akande and Tzanakopoulos, ‘Treaty Law and ICC Jurisdiction over the Crime of Aggression’ (2018) 29(3) EJIL 939.​

[64] ICRC DPH Guide pp.83-84. https://www.icrc.org/en/publication...participation-hostilities-under-international

[65] https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-01/ukraine-civilians-take-up-arms/100870538

[66] GC III https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/appl...3BE01D004C12563CD002D6B3E&action=openDocument art. 4A(6).​

[67] Ibid. art. 4A(1) and (2).​

[68] https://kyivindependent.com/national/who-can-and-cant-join-ukraines-new-territorial-defense-force/ .​

[69] https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/26/world/europe/ukraine-russia-civilian-military.html

[70] GC III art. 4A(2).​

[71] Additional Protocol 1, https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/applic/ihl/ihl.nsf/INTRO/470 art. 51(3).​

[72] See eg Gary Solis, The Law of Armed Conflict (3rd ed. CUP 2021), pp. 190-193.​

[73] https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/25/russia-war-syrian-mercenaries-car-ukraine/?utm_source=PostUp&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Editors%20Picks%20OC&utm_term=40514&tpcc=Editors%20Picks%20OC# ; https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/15/ukraine-war-foreign-fighters-legion-volunteers-legal-status/

[74] International Legion of Defense of Ukraine https://fightforua.org.​

[75] https://kyivindependent.com/nationa...ilitary-as-a-foreigner-heres-what-you-can-do/ ; https://www.ukraine-legion.com/en

[76] https://www.newsweek.com/russia-vows-prosecution-foreign-fighters-after-16k-join-ukraine-1684671

[77] https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/applic/ihl/ihl.nsf/INTRO/470 art. 47(1).​

[78] art. 47(2).​

[79] https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/02/24/russia-ukraine-war-belarus-chernobyl-lukashenko/

[80] International Law Commission, Commentary to art. 16 of the Articles on State Responsibility https://legal.un.org/ilc/texts/instruments/english/commentaries/9_6_2001.pdf.​

 
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