War Invasion of Ukraine News Megathread - Thread is only for articles and discussion of articles, general discussion thread is still in Happenings.

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President Joe Biden on Tuesday said that the United States will impose sanctions “far beyond” the ones that the United States imposed in 2014 following the annexation of the Crimean peninsula.

“This is the beginning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine,” Biden said in a White House speech, signaling a shift in his administration’s position. “We will continue to escalate sanctions if Russia escalates,” he added.

Russian elites and their family members will also soon face sanctions, Biden said, adding that “Russia will pay an even steeper price” if Moscow decides to push forward into Ukraine. Two Russian banks and Russian sovereign debt will also be sanctioned, he said.

Also in his speech, Biden said he would send more U.S. troops to the Baltic states as a defensive measure to strengthen NATO’s position in the area.

Russia shares a border with Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.

A day earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered troops to go into the separatist Donetsk and Lugansk regions in eastern Ukraine after a lengthy speech in which he recognized the two regions’ independence.

Western powers decried the move and began to slap sanctions on certain Russian individuals, while Germany announced it would halt plans to go ahead with the Russia-to-Germany Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

At home, Biden is facing bipartisan pressure to take more extensive actions against Russia following Putin’s decision. However, a recent poll showed that a majority of Americans believe that sending troops to Ukraine is a “bad idea,” and a slim minority believes it’s a good one.

All 27 European Union countries unanimously agreed on an initial list of sanctions targeting Russian authorities, said French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, and EU foreign affairs head Josep Borell claimed the package “will hurt Russia … a lot.”

Earlier Tuesday, Borell asserted that Russian troops have already entered the Donbas region, which comprises Donetsk and Lugansk, which are under the control of pro-Russia groups since 2014.

And on Tuesday, the Russian Parliament approved a Putin-back plan to use military force outside of Russia’s borders as Putin further said that Russia confirmed it would recognize the expanded borders of Lugansk and Donetsk.

“We recognized the states,” the Russian president said. “That means we recognized all of their fundamental documents, including the constitution, where it is written that their [borders] are the territories at the time the two regions were part of Ukraine.”

Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Putin said that Ukraine is “not interested in peaceful solutions” and that “every day, they are amassing troops in the Donbas.”

Meanwhile, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday morning again downplayed the prospect of a Russian invasion and proclaimed: “There will be no war.”

“There will not be an all-out war against Ukraine, and there will not be a broad escalation from Russia. If there is, then we will put Ukraine on a war footing,” he said in a televised address.

The White House began to signal that they would shift their own position on whether it’s the start of an invasion.

“We think this is, yes, the beginning of an invasion, Russia’s latest invasion into Ukraine,” said Jon Finer, the White House deputy national security adviser in public remarks. “An invasion is an invasion and that is what is underway.”

For weeks, Western governments have been claiming Moscow would invade its neighbor after Russia gathered some 150,000 troops along the countries’ borders. They alleged that the Kremlin would attempt to come up with a pretext to attack, while some officials on Monday said Putin’s speech recognizing the two regions was just that.

But Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters Tuesday that Russia’s “latest invasion” of Ukraine is threatening stability in the region, but he asserted that Putin can “still avoid a full blown, tragic war of choice.”

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Lolno

Not only does Ukraine not have the capability to build or field any kind of sizeable surface fleet, but they also lack the naval tradition and institutional knowledge that would make such a fleet useful anyway.

Who in Ukraine is going to lead this black sea fleet and what do they know about captaining a ship larger than a tugboat, much less a fleet of such ships?
NATO. Or to be more precise, "foreign contractors totally not on-loan from the US and UK". Its not hard to build a navy if you have a shitton of foreign assistance and the willpower. Just look at Japan's meteoric rise from not even having galleons in the 1850's to having one of the most modern, skilled fleets in the world by 1890 as a result of massive foreign training programs conducted with the UK. Yes, it took thirty years, but considering they were working from complete scratch, that's damn fast. Add in what <Slavic Gibberish> above me said regarding existent talents, because fucking trying to @ a name like that, and its entirely possible.
Microscopically slim to none. Even if they've kept the maintenence up it's full of 30 year old Soviet systems that weren't exactly good to begin with. You'd have to essentially strip her back to the bare hull and then find a way to design and cram in Western replacements for pretty much everything, and by that point you might as well have just built a modern ship to an existing, superior, design and have done with it.
Yeah, speaking of maintenance...
1649998199793.png

Yeah... that was in 2013, so... "President Zelensky, I don't feel so good." You get the W here, for sure. Christ, she looks in even worse shape than the Russian Navy does.
 
A lot of Soviet era higher ranks are still around. Back then experience was far better too. There are many good size ports and Soviet academies. Mykolaev was a big shipbuilding city that built Moscow, Kuznetsov and other large ships. Also there is a huge business in the river fleet, and not all fleet is military, there are lot of ukrainian merchant marines.

After 2014, cadets who did not switch sides to Russia ended up going to UK for education and training.

Maintaining navy is stupid expensive, unless you are rolling in dough I just don't see the need for a large offensive force or to project anything.



Commander of the Black Sea fleet, Igor Osipov has been arrested.

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I'm sure treating everyone as traitor criminal after any failure will boost morale.

Idk, to me it seems excessively stupid to arrest officers during wartime, once the war is over, go to town on their asses.

russia is having a lot of field promotions and the people getting the position are not going to be more efficient if every single time they have to make a decision they'll be asking themselves "If this goes wrong in any way, what's going to happen to me?" War requires taking risks and attempting to create drunken idiot-proof plans requires god level intelligence and years of planning.
 
Maintaining navy is stupid expensive, unless you are rolling in dough I just don't see the need for a large offensive force or to project anything.
That's the other thing: Ukraine doesn't really have need for an ocean fleet beyond shore/nearshore patrol. If Ukraine were to build that fleet it would almost certainly be to take the fight to Russia and retake Crimea, which would be a non-starter if they join NATO.
 
That's the other thing: Ukraine doesn't really have need for an ocean fleet beyond shore/nearshore patrol. If Ukraine were to build that fleet it would almost certainly be to take the fight to Russia and retake Crimea, which would be a non-starter if they join NATO.
Frankly even a couple Western patrol frigates would be enough to permanently cockblock Russia given their demonstrated capabilities.
 
A lot of Soviet era higher ranks are still around. Back then experience was far better too. There are many good size ports and Soviet academies. Mykolaev was a big shipbuilding city that built Moscow, Kuznetsov and other large ships. Also there is a huge business in the river fleet, and not all fleet is military, there are lot of ukrainian merchant marines.

After 2014, cadets who did not switch sides to Russia ended up going to UK for education and training.

Maintaining navy is stupid expensive, unless you are rolling in dough I just don't see the need for a large offensive force or to project anything.



Commander of the Black Sea fleet, Igor Osipov has been arrested.

View attachment 3180932
You'd think people would learn by now not to trust people named Igor. It's like the slav version of Randy. Their name destines them to being worthless scum.
 
Frankly even a couple Western patrol frigates would be enough to permanently cockblock Russia given their demonstrated capabilities.
Lighter, faster missile boats would probably be better.
Zip in, fire off AShMs from beyond radar horizon, zip out.
Easier to conceal than larger ships, too.
 
Lighter, faster missile boats would probably be better.
Zip in, fire off AShMs from beyond radar horizon, zip out.
Easier to conceal than larger ships, too.
Uh... those are extremely limited in capability and cannot project power in any way. Plus with the Black Sea's weather conditions they'd be heavily restricted to green water operations near the coast, plus a patrol frigate would allow for ASW search and rescue operations using their helicopters. Hell, the USA might as well sell Ukraine some US Coast Guard 418-foot "cutters". Pay no attention to the fact they're 90% in accordance with USN operational and design standards and are pre-designed to fit extra weapons and sensors if needed...
 
Lolno

Not only does Ukraine not have the capability to build or field any kind of sizeable surface fleet, but they also lack the naval tradition and institutional knowledge that would make such a fleet useful anyway.

Who in Ukraine is going to lead this black sea fleet and what do they know about captaining a ship larger than a tugboat, much less a fleet of such ships?
Well technically it was Ukraine that build every Soviet Surface Ship larger than a Frigate. Odessa was the primary shipyard. Polyarny being a bit on the cold side. But to spring off on what Best and greatest said, Ukraine doesn't need a sizable fleet. They have just achieved Area Sea denial and thus Area Air Control over most of the Northern Arc of the Black Sea. The Russian Black Sea Fleet has evacuated to down hugging Georgia and Turkey's coastlines. Sinking Moskva took out 50% of the Black Sea Anti Air defense. With the remaining 10 ships fleeing to Turkish Waters the Russian Invasion no longer has any Air Defense over sea approaches. Ukraine can come up along the coast and lay into the areas surrounding Mariupul. Or start taking potshots at Sevastopol itself. Look at a map and take note of where Ukraine could attack by striking from the sea. Mix that with the new Mig 29's that everybody is sending them. And the rather impressive list of armaments coming from the UK, US etc. And suddenly this is no longer a purely defensive war for the Ukrainians.
 
Or Ukraine could go with the Independence class LCS which didn't have the problems the Freedom class LCS had until recently.
Far, far too pricey and loaded with far too complicated equipment. Buy some Legend-class "cutters" without the top-end US electronics for "coastal patrol" and then hire some naval experts and buy some equipment from Italy to "modernize existing assets" and then whoops, turns out there was a paperwork mishap and Ukraine accidentally into some top-end combat ships. Hell, considering how much of the fancy electronics in Russian combat vehicles have "Made in France" stamped on them I'm quite sure the French will be delighted to give them a discount on purchases in order to prevent any ahem further misunderstandings.
Well technically it was Ukraine that build every Soviet Surface Ship larger than a Frigate. Odessa was the primary shipyard. Polyarny being a bit on the cold side. But to spring off on what Best and greatest said, Ukraine doesn't need a sizable fleet. They have just achieved Area Sea denial and thus Area Air Control over most of the Northern Arc of the Black Sea. The Russian Black Sea Fleet has evacuated to down hugging Georgia and Turkey's coastlines. Sinking Moskva took out 50% of the Black Sea Anti Air defense. With the remaining 10 ships fleeing to Turkish Waters the Russian Invasion no longer has any Air Defense over sea approaches. Ukraine can come up along the coast and lay into the areas surrounding Mariupul. Or start taking potshots at Sevastopol itself. Look at a map and take note of where Ukraine could attack by striking from the sea. Mix that with the new Mig 29's that everybody is sending them. And the rather impressive list of armaments coming from the UK, US etc. And suddenly this is no longer a purely defensive war for the Ukrainians.
Honestly things were already sliding that way well before this. The minute the Russians began pulling back forces from Kiev that was it for the Russians in terms of offensive operations. Having your speartip drive towards the enemy capital blunted through your own incompetence tends to do that, and I believe Ukraine had already begun trying to relieve Mariupol. We've also seen plenty of images of Russian units fleeing with their loot, so to say this is the tipping point is a bit disingenuous. Especially since even without the Russian Navy present Ukraine itself doesn't have many naval assets that could launch naval attacks. I'm not up to date on the disposition of Russian ground forces (and if anyone has an update I'd love to see it), but I don't think this was as big in terms of the land war as you believe it is.
 
So what's next? An especially retarded reverse re-enactment of the Russian journey to Tsushima, but this time it's the Russian Pacific Fleet sailing for the Black Sea and dumping half a dozen kalibrs into a Japanese fishing trawler because they think it's a Ukrainian harpoonski boat?
I heard a few commercial ships were already damaged or destroyed by the Russians. I'm personally hoping for Russian operation Arclight as it would cripple the Russian bomber fleet.To incur even a handful of losses it would jeopardize one arm of their nuclear triad. It would also be funny. I hope I'm not too old to visit Ukraine when they open their victory museum displaying all the equipment they captured or destroyed. The crumpled husk of a Tu-95 or Tu-160 would be a pretty cool exhibit.
 
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I just want to say, if Kremlin's propagandist is starting to use that rhetorics again and again, that's a signal Kremlin is starting to shift their policy and willing to call what they have refused to call 'war' a war, and ordering a general mobilization. I have no idea how that will turns out though
Really fucking badly. A "special military operation" is one thing to hide and lie about to your own citizens, and upgrading it to a war would start making even the vatniks wonder about how badly things are going if Putin needs to ramp things up. Worse, it would also further escalate matters with Europe, with even Germany forced to admit that Russia is asshole as a result. The increased pro-NATO sentiment in Europe would be solidified, and Finland and Sweden would be fast-tracked into NATO practically overnight. There would also be a non-zero chance of a mysterious increase in Polish-speaking Ukrainian citizens that just so happen to be qualified to operate Western combat vehicles.

Those damn Slav bastards in Ukraine already snuck across the border and made off with a bunch of Polish-modernized T-72's. Who is to say they wouldn't steal an armored battalion or two, personnel included?
 
Far, far too pricey and loaded with far too complicated equipment. Buy some Legend-class "cutters" without the top-end US electronics for "coastal patrol" and then hire some naval experts and buy some equipment from Italy to "modernize existing assets" and then whoops, turns out there was a paperwork mishap and Ukraine accidentally into some top-end combat ships.
Hmmm looking at the prices you may have got it backwards. As the Legend class is about 650 to 750 million per ship compared to roughly 360 million for one Independence or Freedom class LCS.
 
Ukraine developing a navy need not be expensive, you just need to consider what capabilities it requires. If it wants more capabilities, the price will go up.

If we exclusively look at it being used to protect Ukraine's coast, and to disrupt Russian naval operations this could be done relatively inexpensively.

The Ukrainians already have their own long range Anti-Ship Missiles, they have been looking to acquire Sea Spear a shorter range Naval Brimstone derived missile too.

Both of these could be fired from coastal batteries, and small attack craft, and fixed with assets. Sea Spear could be fired from Helicopters.

Naval aviation by way of drones is inexpensive and effective, for spotting and targeting enemy craft.

The only thing this doesn't allow them to do is to protect against Russian submarines and interdiction of shipping. That would be far more expensive, but it would still stymie the Russia Black Sea fleet at a fraction of the cost.
 
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