War Invasion of Ukraine News Megathread - Thread is only for articles and discussion of articles, general discussion thread is still in Happenings.

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President Joe Biden on Tuesday said that the United States will impose sanctions “far beyond” the ones that the United States imposed in 2014 following the annexation of the Crimean peninsula.

“This is the beginning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine,” Biden said in a White House speech, signaling a shift in his administration’s position. “We will continue to escalate sanctions if Russia escalates,” he added.

Russian elites and their family members will also soon face sanctions, Biden said, adding that “Russia will pay an even steeper price” if Moscow decides to push forward into Ukraine. Two Russian banks and Russian sovereign debt will also be sanctioned, he said.

Also in his speech, Biden said he would send more U.S. troops to the Baltic states as a defensive measure to strengthen NATO’s position in the area.

Russia shares a border with Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.

A day earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered troops to go into the separatist Donetsk and Lugansk regions in eastern Ukraine after a lengthy speech in which he recognized the two regions’ independence.

Western powers decried the move and began to slap sanctions on certain Russian individuals, while Germany announced it would halt plans to go ahead with the Russia-to-Germany Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

At home, Biden is facing bipartisan pressure to take more extensive actions against Russia following Putin’s decision. However, a recent poll showed that a majority of Americans believe that sending troops to Ukraine is a “bad idea,” and a slim minority believes it’s a good one.

All 27 European Union countries unanimously agreed on an initial list of sanctions targeting Russian authorities, said French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, and EU foreign affairs head Josep Borell claimed the package “will hurt Russia … a lot.”

Earlier Tuesday, Borell asserted that Russian troops have already entered the Donbas region, which comprises Donetsk and Lugansk, which are under the control of pro-Russia groups since 2014.

And on Tuesday, the Russian Parliament approved a Putin-back plan to use military force outside of Russia’s borders as Putin further said that Russia confirmed it would recognize the expanded borders of Lugansk and Donetsk.

“We recognized the states,” the Russian president said. “That means we recognized all of their fundamental documents, including the constitution, where it is written that their [borders] are the territories at the time the two regions were part of Ukraine.”

Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Putin said that Ukraine is “not interested in peaceful solutions” and that “every day, they are amassing troops in the Donbas.”

Meanwhile, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday morning again downplayed the prospect of a Russian invasion and proclaimed: “There will be no war.”

“There will not be an all-out war against Ukraine, and there will not be a broad escalation from Russia. If there is, then we will put Ukraine on a war footing,” he said in a televised address.

The White House began to signal that they would shift their own position on whether it’s the start of an invasion.

“We think this is, yes, the beginning of an invasion, Russia’s latest invasion into Ukraine,” said Jon Finer, the White House deputy national security adviser in public remarks. “An invasion is an invasion and that is what is underway.”

For weeks, Western governments have been claiming Moscow would invade its neighbor after Russia gathered some 150,000 troops along the countries’ borders. They alleged that the Kremlin would attempt to come up with a pretext to attack, while some officials on Monday said Putin’s speech recognizing the two regions was just that.

But Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters Tuesday that Russia’s “latest invasion” of Ukraine is threatening stability in the region, but he asserted that Putin can “still avoid a full blown, tragic war of choice.”

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Russia's channel 1 reports:



Those parents of conscripts are trying to discredit RF military, so it seems

Also lol at the "storm".


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Ivans just don't seem to be good with RPGs and NLAWs, first it was the comedy with Polish made RPGs, now empty AT4 tubes are presented as captured trophies:

Russia Today news:



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I love seeing the Russians and their LPDR bootlicks brag about recovering expended tubes. Are the Russian shills on telegram not aware the Ukrainians netted a couple of armored companies worth of the latest and greatest Russian main battle tanks in operational condition as well as a few hundred of the latest and greatest Russian APCs, IFVs and dozens if not hundreds of AK12s and VAL rifles? I'd make that trade form a handful of basic bitch anti armor weapons any day.
 
https://markets.businessinsider.com...-sanctions-frozen-reserves-ukraine-war-2022-4
Since Western nations imposed economic sanctions on Russia, it has struggled to find alternatives for its frozen foreign-currency reserves, according to Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina.

Russian officials estimate that sanctions have frozen about half of its $642 billion in reserves, leaving it with mostly China's yuan and gold.

"We need to look toward the future, but at the moment I am struggling to give specific suggestions," Nabiullina told a parliamentary committee in Moscow on Monday. "The list of the countries issuing liquid reserve currencies is limited and they are the ones that have taken hostile measures and limited our access."

Before invading Ukraine, 11% of Russia's holdings were dollars, as the bank had dramatically decreased its US exposure for years while adding the yuan and euro to its reserves, Bloomberg reported. Now, over a third of its reserves are in euros, with additional investments in the pound and yen.

But all of the above have been frozen by foreign countries amid the war, which forced Russia's central bank to take drastic measures. It has had to resort to steep interest rate hikes and stringent capital controls, such as limits on how much foreign currency Russians could transfer.

The central bank has since eased interest rates a bit, and Nabiullina said Monday a further rate cut is possible as well as a loosening of requirements for exporters to sell foreign-currency proceeds, according to Reuters.

The central bank is also planning legal retaliations against countries that blocked Russian assets, but any action "must be very carefully thought through…so that we might get the desired result," she added.

Meanwhile, Nabiullina said it would take two years to pull inflation back to its 4% target and warned that the effects of sanctions are moving from financial markets to the real economy.

Russian industry will have to find new international partners to adapt to the sanctions, spurring long-term changes in the economy, she said.

"The period when the economy can live on reserves is finite," Nabiullina said. "And already in the second and third quarter we will enter a period of structural transformation and the search for new business models."
Russia finally admits the obvious. Their economic situation is FFUBAR: Fucking Fucked Up Beyond All Recognition.
https://hotair.com/ed-morrissey/202...merican-artillery-systems-within-days-n463074
In for a penny, in for a pound. And for Howitzers and more too:

U.S. expects to begin training Ukrainian military on American-provided Howitzer artillery systems outside of the country "in the next few days": senior U.S. defense official

It’s a significant move, one that may escalate matters with Vladimir Putin. Ukraine’s unexpectedly robust defense has had one unfortunate effect, which is that they have run out of heavier artillery ammunition necessary to stop and then to roll back Russian invaders. Over the weekend, that supply issue became critical, especially with the looming Russian offensive in the Donbas region.

It looks like NATO has run short as well on the Soviet inventory:

There is growing concern about the need to get more ammunition — and in particular artillery ammunition — to Ukrainian forces more rapidly as heavy ground combat against Russian units is expected to unfold in the coming days, according to a US official.
While the United States is shipping 18 155mm towed howitzers and 40,000 artillery rounds to Ukraine as part of the new security assistance announced by President Joe Biden’s administration this week, even that amount could be expended within several days, raising the prospect of Ukraine forces running out of ammunition, the official said.
During some of the heavy earlier fighting, Ukrainian forces fired up to thousands of artillery rounds in a given day, the official noted.
Consider this the death of plausible deniability … and implausible deniability, for that matter. Until now, we have mostly supplied Ukraine indirectly by allowing our allies in eastern Europe to send their old Soviet-era arms without explicit NATO involvement, and then backfilling them with newer US systems. That was a cautious strategy aimed at holding down the potential for escalation directly with NATO.


Of course, that cat’s been out of the bag for a while as NATO-alliance leaders go public with the extent of support we have already supplied Ukraine. We’re holding press conferences to discuss the specific armament shipments, which feeds right into Vladimir Putin’s narrative about this war being against NATO rather than an annihilation of Slavic brothers and sisters.

Speaking of which, Biden’s announcement about the Howitzers last week already suggested a more direct supply to Ukraine, but Detsch’s report suggests that this will soon accelerate. The problem appears to be that Ukraine has lasted long enough for our former Iron Curtain allies in eastern Europe to have run out or are at a strategic floor of inventory necessary for their defense. Until the US and other NATO suppliers can resupply them, the finite amount of materiel available for Ukraine will run out, and so will our options for caution.

We’ve hit the fish-or-cut-bait point on Ukraine: either we keep arming them or we don’t. The former option means we’ll have to start arming them with US and NATO systems, which would essentially be the de facto outcome that Putin claims to want to prevent — NATO systems on his border facing his troops. The latter option is a surrender of Ukraine to the invaders and the betrayal of Volodymyr Zelensky, a political disaster that won’t wear well in any Western country at this point. If we’re going to set up a training program of any significance, that means we’ll be sending a lot more than 18 towed Howitzers and the ammunition for their use. We might end up seeing Western anti-aircraft systems and perhaps anti-ship platforms too after the sinking of the Moskva. We would be escalating by arming Ukrainians more directly, perhaps a signal that the West and especially the White House now recognize that incrementalism has largely failed to restrain Putin.


That’s yet another way this war has backfired on Putin, but it’s also one way it could still backfire on us. How will Putin react when Ukraine starts using not just old Soviet arms that are technologically inferior to Putin’s armaments, but Western heavy arms that will likely prove superior? Putin might opt to start striking the lines of communication bringing those arms into Ukraine, and we might end up with a intercontinental war as a result. Putin will lose that too, but he can make sure no one wins it.
And an interesting article. Apparently the West has already shipped every single piece of Pact gear we can spare to Ukraine, and we may have to shut the tap off for a while unless we want Leopards and Leclercs flying Ukrainian flags.
 
The Russians just took over Azovs official telegram. Kek

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Those M777s might be interesting if they start off loading special ammo like Coperheads and Excaliburs. Otherwise it's not going to be a game changer.
I doubt we'd be sending those. They're expensive due to being made out of titanium, and the relatively static nature of the war means the M198's weight isn't much of an issue. Besides, I'm pretty sure its easier to train Ukrainians to use and maintain a howitzer that entered service in 1979 as opposed to a modern, all-digital replacement.
 
supposedly Russia has started the major offensive in donbass. not much info so far
It probably might be an effort to have something, anything that Putin can use to declare overwhelming victory by Victory Day on May 9.

Telegram is the one location where the Russian military can say they've been victorious
And all they did was likely capture and torture the admin. The Azovstal position including the above ground plant and tunnels is still held by the Azov regiment.
 
The Azovstal position including the above ground plant and tunnels is still held by the Azov regiment.
It took Monte Cassino four months & four assaults to fall. The fight for Azovstal reminds me of that in a lot of ways; except for being on top of a goddamned mountain, and supplies/ammo are still making it in. Same time of year even.

Makes me wonder if the Poles are gonna end this too, somehow. Rescuing the nazis, that would be peak clown.
 
Something boring like a rusty T-72 (a bit vague given the trillion variants) or potentially a T-80 (nearly ditto).
If things keep going, I wouldn't be surprised to see something like an IS or T-10 being dug up & used by separatists; or possibly even Nork or Chicom tanks, but only if Jong Un & Xi want to extend Putin that kind of credit.
They're not going to risk a parade queen when based on what we've seen it's survivability would not be noticeably better than the soviet era shit we've seen.
I can see them sending at least one platoon to a secure(ish) area & getting pulled after an engagement, if only to bust Armata's combat cherry.
 
I can see them sending at least one platoon to a secure(ish) area & getting pulled after an engagement, if only to bust Armata's combat cherry.
Usually military jumps at the opportunity to be able to apply "Combat Tested" sticker to their potential export gear but russia is fine with "Looks Great at Parades! and we'll throw in a 30% discount"
 
T-14 has to make an appearance at some point, right? I have a feeling one will end up on this list before any victory parade.
I guarantee you if one shows up, its going to get captured by Ukraine given Russia's track record. "Hey, America, how much aid is an intact Armata worth?"
Usually military jumps at the opportunity to be able to apply "Combat Tested" sticker to their potential export gear but russia is fine with "Looks Great at Parades! and we'll throw in a 30% discount"
Armata doesn't even do that. Remember the breakdown?
 
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