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I'm looking particularly at hardwood stumpage and it didn't fall badly in 2008 (was already going down and maintained trajectory with a slight acceleration). I'd have thought it would fall hard.
Maybe it'll be a small hit. Maybe.
1. You are an Ozzie so you have it far far far fucking worse dystopian-wise than we Yanks do.Where are you getting these numbers? It seems more like a doomer feeling than a quantifiable metric. I'm aware there was an attempt to get the more unruly 'alt-right' blue checkmarks off twitter, I just feel that the smarter amongst the blue checkmarks accept the interplay between poltical forces. How exactly would they sell limiting a blue checkmark to their own? Fighting against 'hate speech', we're not quite there yet. Maybe in a few years if things worsen and the U.S enters a 'years of lead' insurgency like Italy.
And, yeah, of course some particularly unhinged celebrities or talkung heads like Keith Olberman would prefer to get rid of conservatives from twitter but Twitter itself still has an ideological underpinnning that supports free speech, Trump was only turfed after the most egregious behaviour. Twitter's business model is dependent upon the interactions between left and right and the fighting that produces drama. That fighting produces profit.
Sorry, I read your stuff and find you interesting. Maybe the fact I'm Australian means I see U.S politics as a fellow anglophone but not on the ground and can't see how bad it is. I just don't think those norms have broken as yet.
If this shit works out, I can expand more aggressively than anticipated. If not... well, I'm stuck with a (now cheap) loan on minimum payments longer than intended. Watching the lumber spike I assumed this was how it worked, but I got into this knowing nothing. Good to hear it from somewhere instead of just guessing at it.Hardwood stumpage is so early in the flow that a crisis might last years before major effects show up.
If we look at housing market as the final product, there are very many steps between a tree and a finished house
and even when one individual step stops it will still take quite some time until the previous step in the process is affected, etc.
Disruption does not happen all at once, it happens at one stage, then slowly over months it starts affecting the previous step
so it will take possibly years for the pipeline, say for chipboard, before the Stumpage guy is affected:
New Construction -> Builder -> Distributor/Warehouse -> TheChipboardMaker -> The Mill -> Stumpage Guy.
There are more layers than this but you get the idea. Also, every stage in this layering is a company that will try as hard as possible to mitigate and delay the impact of the downturn. Every company in this layering also have buffers that can keep them going for many months before a downturn in orders translate into laying people off/shutting down the company.
On a much more positive note:
IF you want to build a house, just after a housing crash is the best time to do it. When things are booming, builders will not even bid on small jobs and the guy you eventually get has too much work elsewhere so he will just speedrun building your house.
When you build a house after the crash, that guy building your house will take his sweet time and build it supercarefully and not taking any shortcuts anywhere. Because he knows that once your contract is finished he might not have any other job for many months.
The guy that builds your house:
BOOM: any% speedrun, glitches allowed
CRASH: 100% no-hit-run hardest-difficulty
He isn't saying that the radicals of the 1970s are like AntiFA today. He's saying that the radicals of the 1970s are literally the teachers, NGO leaders and Obama officials of today.cool story bro
I live in the PNW, I know antifa, they are my neighbors. I also was a red diaper baby in the bay area in the 80s and went to high schools full of 60s activist teachers. They are not the same people.
He also decided to launch a $6 billion effort to support financially distressed nuclear power plants to prevent them from closing. While this is going to drive up inflation, I'm interested in seeing if he'll come out in full support of creating new nuclear power plants in the US, or if that topic is forbidden by virtue of alienating the majority of his fearful and generally misinformed [about nuclear power] supporters, while also shooting down his 2024 re-election attempts (or rather more so than he already has, anyway).
It'll be six billion dollars for training niggers to run nuclear power plants in the name of equality. Hope you're upwind.
We are at the point where, tbh if we were in a normal timeline where one could expect things to function normally, the only explanation for Biden would be that someone in the Dem party wanted to hand power to the Republicans for a generation or so.
I don't even know how the fuck to explain it. I wasn't alive at the time but from what I've seen, read and heard, even Carter wasn't thrown to the sharks in quite the same way Biden has been. And the most terrifying thing is that the most likely reality isn't that someone has grown a conscience and decided to let him bumble his way into the spotlight - they're probably sincerely trying to prop up a dementia patient as the leader of western democracy, a man who technically has (is supposed to have) control of our nuclear response arsenal.
There's no mechanism for us to take power back. They've finally hit the point where they don't have to worry about anybody getting in their way (at least they think, I wouldn't be altogether surprised if they fuck up the steal again and Trump wins with 130 million votes and they can't fake their way out of it).We are at the point where, tbh if we were in a normal timeline where one could expect things to function normally, the only explanation for Biden would be that someone in the Dem party wanted to hand power to the Republicans for a generation or so.
Jen Psaki is crying, and "going crazy" because they can't groom kids in school anymore.
Softwood. Hardwood isn't suitable for making paper products. Unless this is some weird americanism where hardwood actually means softwood for some reason.Also, hardwood pulp is an odd one since they need it for cardboard boxes.
What if the Democrats are planning to stop illegal immigration by turning America into Venezuela? Notice the heel-turn towards Trump's position during the last SOTU? What's a better wall than poverty?It also sounds like a Chavez -> Maduro situation, where Venezuela really started going to shit after Chavez died, leaving Maduro to run a dumpster fire.
Perhaps the plan is to make the US into such a shithole, give the Republicans this shithole, unfixable US, and when things get even worse, the blame game goes all out on the Republican party, to the point that either the Democrats win them back, or it starts an uprising, to eliminate all Republicans, Final Solution-style.
Seeing Valerie Jarrett makes me wish Roseanne had doubled down on making fun of her.Nobody is telling them they *can't* wear a mask, but they can't fathom this. It's self-flagellation.
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Guess the MIP got their compensation for canceling the forever war, now they're just gonna ship their shit to Ukraine and have them beta test themBiden approved an $800 million package for additional aid to Ukraine in the form of extra ammunition and support (eg: aircraft parts, howitzers). The military-industrial complex must be overjoyed.
He also decided to launch a $6 billion effort to support financially distressed nuclear power plants to prevent them from closing. While this is going to drive up inflation, I'm interested in seeing if he'll come out in full support of creating new nuclear power plants in the US, or if that topic is forbidden by virtue of alienating the majority of his fearful and generally misinformed [about nuclear power] supporters, while also shooting down his 2024 re-election attempts (or rather more so than he already has, anyway).
You can tell it kills them. They want oil and nuclear (and coal) to go out completely, but their plans to make infrastructure run on peat and dreams isn't ready, so they have to do the bare minimum to prop them up again after botching the hit job. Seethe and cope.regarding nuclear power.
We are having a 1970's energy crises....again. Nuclear has a very very high up front cost, and regulation is a fucking nightmare.
Same with public relations.
But when you shut down coal mines, when you move to gas powered co gen plants, and then stop extracting gas... then you have a good motive to not decommission the fucking things.
The admin is running around with its head cut off and they can more easily fund mainting existing nuclear plants rather having new ones built or take the very very public L for going back on "drill baby drill"
Isn't this the guy who admitted to "accidentally" downloading pizza cheese? Why is he not being gangraped in prison right now?Keep preening about your moral superiority for wearing science burqas, and someone might receive "violence" in the form of pointing and laughing. Maybe a bitchslap or a shove, if you're sufficiently obnoxious about it.
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Na, I know a couple Aussies. This shit is retard-grade shitposting by their standards.Ah. Your constant lukewarm-IQ shitposting suddenly makes sense.
The media would bury it.Demented Biden engaging in untoward activity towards a white house staffer would be the absolute golden turd atop this administration. Imagine the fractal, six dimensional mental gymnastics they would require to handwave away their guy grabbing some poor intern by the pussy and it getting out.
That first pic looks like those little metal minatures.From what we've seen, governments will allow and even fund extremist groups, as long as they operate within the plans the governments have set out. They don't care about ideology. Just as long as you achieve the objectives they want.
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Of course wine aunts are the only ones that are feeling the pain less.Na, I know a couple Aussies. This shit is retard-grade shitposting by their standards.
As for economics, at least wine is cheap in the USA right now. Massive surplus thanks to a bunch of people opening up vineyards and wineries years ago, and now there's a glut. Better think about switching over if you're a beer drinker, because prices there have just been skyrocketing.
Are you kidding me? $7 for a bottle of decent Cabernet is a hell of a sweet deal. That's cheaper than a six-pack of quality beer these days.Of course wine aunts are the only ones that are feeling the pain less.