War Invasion of Ukraine News Megathread - Thread is only for articles and discussion of articles, general discussion thread is still in Happenings.

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President Joe Biden on Tuesday said that the United States will impose sanctions “far beyond” the ones that the United States imposed in 2014 following the annexation of the Crimean peninsula.

“This is the beginning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine,” Biden said in a White House speech, signaling a shift in his administration’s position. “We will continue to escalate sanctions if Russia escalates,” he added.

Russian elites and their family members will also soon face sanctions, Biden said, adding that “Russia will pay an even steeper price” if Moscow decides to push forward into Ukraine. Two Russian banks and Russian sovereign debt will also be sanctioned, he said.

Also in his speech, Biden said he would send more U.S. troops to the Baltic states as a defensive measure to strengthen NATO’s position in the area.

Russia shares a border with Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.

A day earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered troops to go into the separatist Donetsk and Lugansk regions in eastern Ukraine after a lengthy speech in which he recognized the two regions’ independence.

Western powers decried the move and began to slap sanctions on certain Russian individuals, while Germany announced it would halt plans to go ahead with the Russia-to-Germany Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

At home, Biden is facing bipartisan pressure to take more extensive actions against Russia following Putin’s decision. However, a recent poll showed that a majority of Americans believe that sending troops to Ukraine is a “bad idea,” and a slim minority believes it’s a good one.

All 27 European Union countries unanimously agreed on an initial list of sanctions targeting Russian authorities, said French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, and EU foreign affairs head Josep Borell claimed the package “will hurt Russia … a lot.”

Earlier Tuesday, Borell asserted that Russian troops have already entered the Donbas region, which comprises Donetsk and Lugansk, which are under the control of pro-Russia groups since 2014.

And on Tuesday, the Russian Parliament approved a Putin-back plan to use military force outside of Russia’s borders as Putin further said that Russia confirmed it would recognize the expanded borders of Lugansk and Donetsk.

“We recognized the states,” the Russian president said. “That means we recognized all of their fundamental documents, including the constitution, where it is written that their [borders] are the territories at the time the two regions were part of Ukraine.”

Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Putin said that Ukraine is “not interested in peaceful solutions” and that “every day, they are amassing troops in the Donbas.”

Meanwhile, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday morning again downplayed the prospect of a Russian invasion and proclaimed: “There will be no war.”

“There will not be an all-out war against Ukraine, and there will not be a broad escalation from Russia. If there is, then we will put Ukraine on a war footing,” he said in a televised address.

The White House began to signal that they would shift their own position on whether it’s the start of an invasion.

“We think this is, yes, the beginning of an invasion, Russia’s latest invasion into Ukraine,” said Jon Finer, the White House deputy national security adviser in public remarks. “An invasion is an invasion and that is what is underway.”

For weeks, Western governments have been claiming Moscow would invade its neighbor after Russia gathered some 150,000 troops along the countries’ borders. They alleged that the Kremlin would attempt to come up with a pretext to attack, while some officials on Monday said Putin’s speech recognizing the two regions was just that.

But Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters Tuesday that Russia’s “latest invasion” of Ukraine is threatening stability in the region, but he asserted that Putin can “still avoid a full blown, tragic war of choice.”

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Why go through Odessa ? just siege it and mine the ukraine seas, Russia is no longer playing nice so Leningrading Odessa should be no problem if they can make it that far.

1. I don't know how, but RF forces in Mariupol didn't have enough strength further, which seems counterintuitive since as besieged area shrinks, you need less troops on the perimeter. I really wander if those plans from Soviet days about Azovsteel being nuke proof fortress is true, and there is underground system that allows you to basically pop around in the middle of the city, kill and retreat. In Grozny, underground city tunnels were used extensively to move troops around.

2. Interesting factoid. As chLeningrad was besieged, Nazis did allow people to leave, the Soviet claimed starvation was a lie. In fact chLeningrad factories turned out record breaking military production all this time and no Nazi was convicted of war crime starving anyone in the city. (starvation did take place, but basically between two tyrants, no one gave a fuck about peasants)
 
So, Russian EMERCOM media outlet posted this:

otvet_nato.jpg
The headline goes like this: "Russian EMERCOM recommendations in the event of a retaliatory nuclear strike by NATO countries"

It says that according to intelligence, there's a possibility of a retaliatory nuclear strike on the 24th of April and gives general tips on preparedness.

EMERCOM claims the website was hacked and now it's out of service.
 
Interesting video of OSINT that attempts to count Russia tanks in long term storage through satalite imagery.


He reckons around 3000 tanks might be in a position to be brought back into working order. Though who knows how many have already been cannibalised for parts.

Russia perhaps doesn't have the number of armoured vehicles we thought they did. Normal numbers put out are 10k plus.
 

Russia claims it has captured Kharkiv arms depot​

Thousands of tonnes of Ukrainian ammunition is now said to be in Russia's hands, after the capture of an arms depot in the Kharkiv region was claimed by the Russian military.
The Tass news agency reported the claim by the country's defence ministry and described the depot as large.
There was no independent verification of the news, although earlier in the day, Ukraine had said that Russian forces were trying to mount an offensive in the area.
In the city of Kharkiv itself, Ukraine said that Russian shells had struck a wedding hall and the main Barabashovo market, causing casualties.
BBC Link
 
Bundeskanzler Scholz refuses to send armour to Ukraine suggesting it will leads to escalation to nuclear war:

The leader has faced sharp criticism for failing to delivery heavy weapons to the besieged country, such as tanks and howitzers to fend off savage Russian attacks.

Other Western allies have stepped up their military shipments to Volodymyr Zelensky's forces but Scholz has held firm in his bid not to upset Vladimir Putin.

Instead, on Tuesday, he said Germany would provide Ukraine with £830million to buy their own weapons.

Asked in an extensive interview published on Friday why he thought delivering tanks could lead to nuclear war, he said there was no rule book that stated when Germany could be considered a party to the war in Ukraine.

He told Spiegel: 'We need to do everything to avoid a direct military confrontation between NATO and a heavily armed superpower such as Russia, a nuclear power

'I will do everything to avoid an escalation that could lead to World War III – there can be no nuclear war.

'That's why it is all the more important that we consider each step very carefully and coordinate closely with one another.



'To avoid an escalation towards NATO is a top priority for me.

'That's why I don't focus on polls or let myself be irritated by shrill calls. The consequences of an error would be dramatic.'

The comments were a departure from his previous statements on the topic, focusing on the fact that Germany's own military's stocks were too depleted to send any heavy battlefield weapons while those the German industry has said it could supply could not easily be put into use.



Asked why he would not explain his government's reluctance with the threat of nuclear war, he said such 'simplifications' were not helpful.

He was yesterday accused of removing heavy weapons systems, including Boxer transport vehicles and German-made Leopard 2 battle tanks, from a list agreed with Ukraine, according to details leaked to Bild newspaper.

Germany has claimed sending heavy weaponry such as tanks from its own stocks would 'significantly weaken' its own defensive capability and leave the country unable to fulfil its own Nato requirements.

By contrast, Britain has provided at least £450million of military aid and weaponry, including armoured vehicles and anti-tank missiles.

Yesterday, the US announced a further £612million of military aid including heavy artillery weapons, dozens of howitzers and tactical drones, following a similar-sized package of assistance earlier this month.

Other Western allies have stepped up their military shipments to Volodymyr Zelensky's forces but Scholz has held firm, not wanting to upset Vladimir Putin (pictured today)
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Other Western allies have stepped up their military shipments to Volodymyr Zelensky's forces but Scholz has held firm, not wanting to upset Vladimir Putin (pictured today)

The apparent leak of the weapons list appears to confirm claims from Andrij Melnyk, the Ukrainian ambassador to Germany, earlier this week, who said: 'The weapons we need are not even on this list.' The agreed list came to just £257million – about a third of that promised by Mr Scholz.

Germany instead reached an agreement yesterday with allies in eastern Europe to supply Ukraine with heavy artillery, tanks and armoured vehicles provided by other countries before Berlin replenishes stocks, defence minister Christine Lambrecht said.

It will also train Ukrainian soldiers to use its Panzerhaubitze 2000 self-propelled howitzers, reportedly sent by the Netherlands.

Mrs Lambrecht said Germany cannot send the howitzers itself as its army 'does not have the stocks'. The opposition party may force a vote on the issue next week, forcing Mr Scholz into an embarrassing backtrack.

Separately, Scholz defended his decision not to immediately end German imports of Russian gas in response to what Russia calls a 'special military operation' in Ukraine.

'I absolutely do not see how a gas embargo would end the war. If (Russian President Vladimir) Putin were open to economic arguments, he would never have begun this crazy war,' he said.

'Secondly, you act as if this was about money. But it's about avoiding a dramatic economic crisis and the loss of millions of jobs and factories that would never again open their doors.'
sourced by them to a Der Spiegel article
Interesting video of OSINT that attempts to count Russia tanks in long term storage through satalite imagery.


He reckons around 3000 tanks might be in a position to be brought back into working order. Though who knows how many have already been cannibalised for parts.

Russia perhaps doesn't have the number of armoured vehicles we thought they did. Normal numbers put out are 10k plus.

I haven't watched it yet, but any infrared or advanced targeting systems some had will remain kaput as the French systems they seem to use a lot have been unavailable since sanctions first imposed in 2014.

edit: mostly unavailable, but companies like Thales who could somehow claim there was an 'existing contract' could continue selling to Russia. This caused concern as lot of Russian weapons use French systems. Possibly the loophole has been closed but Macron is likely on Putin's 'annoying twerps' list rather than his 'enemies' list where Russians on it get find themselves drinking bad tea.
 
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Interesting video of OSINT that attempts to count Russia tanks in long term storage through satalite imagery.


He reckons around 3000 tanks might be in a position to be brought back into working order. Though who knows how many have already been cannibalised for parts.

Russia perhaps doesn't have the number of armoured vehicles we thought they did. Normal numbers put out are 10k plus.

total number of tanks Soviet Union has produced was around 22k, so I believe.

In 2014, there was a tank storage depot, separatists claimed to have captured it (because they were getting Russian tanks so they tried every lie as usual), but that claim actually produced fairly extensive articles detailing the storage depot (still in Ukrainian hands) and basically how usable they were. 30-25% were junk, apparent from just looking at them, most were basket cases. There weren't many tanks that could be simply driven off the lot, if they could Ukrainians would not mind. Granted that Ukrainian army pre-2014 was basically Belarus-grade and FSB liked to keep it that way, still, getting tanks in operation is no easy task.


There is also these satellite shots of what seem styrofoam fleet of planes in the making (or needing repair), makes one wander how many tanks are real tanks or were at any point in time. Putting old hauls next to actually stored tanks would make good satellite pictures.

1650653191711.png
 
So, Russian EMERCOM media outlet posted this:

View attachment 3205924
The headline goes like this: "Russian EMERCOM recommendations in the event of a retaliatory nuclear strike by NATO countries"

It says that according to intelligence, there's a possibility of a retaliatory nuclear strike on the 24th of April and gives general tips on preparedness.

EMERCOM claims the website was hacked and now it's out of service.
So Russia is planning on doing some crazy shit on the 24th?
 

Will the Ukrainians attempt to sink it?
I can honestly imagine it going full blue's mobile once it arrives on location.
So, Russian EMERCOM media outlet posted this:

View attachment 3205924
The headline goes like this: "Russian EMERCOM recommendations in the event of a retaliatory nuclear strike by NATO countries"

It says that according to intelligence, there's a possibility of a retaliatory nuclear strike on the 24th of April and gives general tips on preparedness.

EMERCOM claims the website was hacked and now it's out of service.
I know people who are legitimately in full panic mode after I shared it with them so thanks, I guess, it's fun trying to explain to someone that no, if a nuke goes off over here you're not going to feel pain.

Though, horrifyingly, would it really surprise anyone if russia went for it? Normies seem to believe it, russia has at this point did nothing but butcher a bunch of Ukrainian civilians and utterly humiliate itself to everyone but it's own sleepwalking population, they lose so many troops and equipment they'll legit run out long before they can threaten anyone else even if they took all of Ukraine, the (literal) meat of their frontline army, at this point, is formed via gunpoint conscription with poor fucker's families held as hostages.

What the fuck does russia have left to show the world that it's actually dangerous and that it'll do and get what it wants or else, other than actually going 'there'?
 
They - we - are not doing enough. This should have been in place before the invasion. I can sympathize that they didn't want the Russians getting ahold of it.

Yet, once it was known Russia wouldn't win quickly why has it been months for it to be discussed for Ukraine.

If Western nations - not just the US - were smart their military production complex would of reawaken by March. We should be spending $10bn per nation, handing that shit to Ukraine and let them lay low our main ally. Why didn't we?

I think part of the reason why is because some were hoping that Ukraine would bow out, accept Russia's shit, and things would continue as normal; UN condemning it, western countries condemn it, everyone wrings their hands and does nothing similarly to how we reacted when Russia took Crimea or invaded Georgia; in Germany's case in particular I think this is what Scholz was hoping for because of how in bed the Germans have become with the Russians for natural gas.


For comparison, from D-Day to the end of August (about three months), it was 20,688 confirmed KiA on the ground on the American side.

Well, at least the VDV are around to help bypass hardpoints. Oh wait, no they're not.

The VDV are in hell asking the Fallschrimjägers where it all went wrong.



Will the Ukrainians attempt to sink it?

Not a ship expert but I feel like that ship would fair even worse to Neptune missiles than Moskva did. Ukraine may attempt to sink it just to send another message to the Ruskies.
 
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