Russian Invasion of Ukraine Megathread

How well is the war this going for Russia?

  • ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Blyatskrieg

    Votes: 249 10.6%
  • ⭐⭐⭐⭐ I ain't afraid of no Ghost of Kiev

    Votes: 278 11.8%
  • ⭐⭐⭐ Competent attack with some upsets

    Votes: 796 33.7%
  • ⭐⭐ Stalemate

    Votes: 659 27.9%
  • ⭐ Ukraine takes back Crimea 2022

    Votes: 378 16.0%

  • Total voters
    2,360
Status
Not open for further replies.
Was there ever a proper head count possible of the Moskva sailors that were paraded the other day?. I read there were a hundred, but that might be bullshit. I would say that there is potential for 25-30% to have died from the combination of initial attack, the following explosion and there would have been some who were alive, but trapped, and went down with the ship. Poor fuckers.
Haven't seen a proper headcount of the video. A bit too short to offer any certainty. From some quick checking around a hundred is a reasonable estimate for the number of survivors shown in the video. Given none of them seemed to be wounded, it's possibly the discrepancy could be explained by the rest still being in the hospital treated for various injuries.
 
  • Agree
Reactions: JosephStalin
Really? The US produced an amount of steel in 2020 that was 14.5x the total tonnage of the US Navy. Japan about 18.5x. South Korea about 13.5x. Germany and Turkey about 7x each

China does not have the ability to prevent the US from replacing materiel losses in a war because muh steel

Where do you guys come up with these completely retarded statements? Google is right there. Use it ffs. All the major powers have the ability to produce way more than enough steel to fight a long, bloody war
>Google is right there
lol yes, and it says you're retarded.
Capture.PNG

About the only company in the US "producing" steel is Nucor which is mostly just a steel recycling company. There's of course U.S. Steel, but they've been in a death spiral for years now because China and India keep driving down the steel market. Also, you mention Germany, but most of their production does not take place within Germany and their biggest company which is number 2 on the above list is owned by India now.

Edit:
The US government has also said basically the same shit I said.
 
Do you guys think they will try to capture Odessa and Kharkov or will they just stick to the south and the donbass? I imagine Russia and Germany want this over asap and are eager to start pushing through new gas deals.
Depends on how ground down the Ukrainian army ends up. Sounds like ammo has been a problem.

I would have been worried about Ukrainian morale since they drafted every man they could get their hands on but WW1 had Americans go off and die in trench warfare for four years so morale is probably still decent.

Of course. Russia's full of bigoted transphobes and bigoted transphobes never win. Right now the transblack Muslim Ghost of Kyv is sieging Moscow and soon he's gonna win.
btw nato please send everything you have to aid us not that we need it or anything haha

People (who believe the MSM) keep saying this and acting like Ukraine's not taken massively heavier losses and is on its last legs militarily. You think Russian forces just ran in and started killing each other while Ukrainians sat back and drank vodka? There's a very good reason the media is absolutely silent on Ukrainian military casualties.
I'm glad someone else has noticed the complete lack of casualty data from Ukraine.
 
Edit:
The US government has also said basically the same shit I said.
even Russia produces about 1.5 times more steel than the USA these days. It's incredible how far the us steel industry has fallen.


Depends on how ground down the Ukrainian army ends up. Sounds like ammo has been a problem.

I would have been worried about Ukrainian morale since they drafted every man they could get their hands on but WW1 had Americans go off and die in trench warfare for four years so morale is probably still decent.


I'm glad someone else has noticed the complete lack of casualty data from Ukraine.
actually the Americans were there for just the last year, a few volunteers aside. The grind of trench warfare and mass casualties for 4 years destroyed France's resolve as a nation for a generation after. Ukraine's fervent patriots are all dying in mass, the apathetic ones are doing their best to surrender if they can't flee overpressured positions.
 
Last edited:
I'm glad someone else has noticed the complete lack of casualty data from Ukraine.
It's probably basically identical or slightly higher. Ukraine has the defender's advantage. Pretty sure they DID say how many men died, but it was about as trustworthy as the Russian's claims of their casualties, as in it's only in the one or two thousand range.
 
  • Agree
Reactions: Pocket Dragoon
even Russia produces about 1.5 times more steel than the USA these days. It's incredible how far the us steel industry has fallen.
Well, a lot of it is because of Chinese steel dumping, but the US really should have put some harsh tariffs on steel imports to correct that. Trump took some steps towards this while he was in office which helped a lot, but has so far been too little too late. Other than food of course, I'd say steel, aluminum, and oil are things that if you're reliant on importing, your economy is seriously at risk if there's ever a major war or if there is a global economic crisis.
 
Last edited:
Well the US military would already be pretty much dependent on China in an all-out war since pretty much all steel either comes from China or places China could easily cut off from the US. The battery thing is no joke. Those would be worse for crew survivability than the petrol engines were which most countries replaced with diesel prior to WW2.
View attachment 3209246

This is one of those things where I don't know but just have suspicions. The whole battery and electric car thing isn't where they see the future being. It'll be some sort of green substitute to petrol. Ideally, something that can cleanly burn in existing engines. I suspect the development of this is further along than we're being told. It may not be though. It may just be something they hope someone figures out.

Electric cars replacing petrol burning ones just doesn't make any practical sense to me. In theory, yes but in reality, I don't see how it can happen. Both in resources of making batteries, plus the practicality of charging. I am not seeing apartments built where every carpark has a charging station. There's zero work put into on-street charging for people who don't have onsite parking. We already have major issues with congestion and infrastructure. The easiest solution is fewer cars.

I think there's a plan to reduce car ownership, and electric cars with a premium price and their limitations is the mechanism to do so in the west in the near term. Public transport will become a way to manage how and where people travel most of the time. It's part of the whole, "you'll own nothing and be happy" crap. It's a way to manage overpopulation, while allowing rich people to still have their options to go places that are less crowded.

I think we'll get a reduction in cars, electric start to dominate, then suddenly green petrol, green aviation fuel and other such stuff come in after that. Of course, it will be more expensive. Biden's handlers are probably just looking at getting the ball rolling on that groundwork for the US military.
 
It's probably basically identical or slightly higher. Ukraine has the defender's advantage. Pretty sure they DID say how many men died, but it was about as trustworthy as the Russian's claims of their casualties, as in it's only in the one or two thousand range.
Defender's advantage doesn't matter as much as it did decades ago. "Official" media-approved estimates have Ukrainian casualties at about half of Russia's, and Ukraine itself has an even more lopsided number. When a few groups actually spoke out and said it was pretty obvious Ukrainian propaganda that NATO was accepting, they just stopped talking about Ukrainian losses altogether, and instead act like Russia's done nothing but lose troops and battles since they got there and that Ukraine is somehow on the verge of counterinvading them, which is all on the same level of reality denial as Hitler's nonexistent counterattack armies in 1945. Denying reality's what their agenda's all about though.
I would have been worried about Ukrainian morale since they drafted every man they could get their hands on but WW1 had Americans go off and die in trench warfare for four years so morale is probably still decent.
Besides foreign volunteers American troops were only deployed for about a year for one campaign, and though we did take pretty fucking heavy casualties it was a war that was more or less already won by that point, we just sped up the outcome (and took a little too much credit postwar).
 
Last edited:
The one thing I absolutely loathe about this whole bullshit western virtue signaling campaign, is the narrative that Ukraine is a "democracy". This is particuarly perpetuted among Americans who insist that Europe=democratic. Ukraine is just about as free as Mexico and El Salvador. The ignorance of the average American about the outside world is astounding.

No one cares what democracy is, it's just a feature of "good white people." It's just a label. Bad white people, like Russians and Republicans, are anti-democracy. Therefor can be dehumanised. Good white people don't need to actually be for or understand democracy and therefore can be complete hypocrites over it.
 
It's probably basically identical or slightly higher. Ukraine has the defender's advantage. Pretty sure they DID say how many men died, but it was about as trustworthy as the Russian's claims of their casualties, as in it's only in the one or two thousand range.
I've found Wikipedia's not too bad a source for the subject of casualties in the war, as long as you aren't interested in Russia's claims as far as how many it's killed/wounded, or Ukraine's claims as far as how many it's killed or wounded. As it stands:

BreakdownCasualtiesTime periodSource
Civilians24,157–24,324+ killed (estimated)[73]
2,500–2,700 killed (processed)[74][75]
24 February – 19 April 2022
24 February – 18 April 2022
Ukrainian government
2,435 killed, 2,946 wounded24 February – 21 April 2022United Nations[75]
Ukrainian forces
(UAF, NGU)
2,500–3,000 killed, 10,000 wounded24 February – 15 April 2022Ukrainian government[76]
2,000–4,000 killed24 February – 9 March 2022US estimate[77]
Russian Armed Forces1,351 killed, 3,825 wounded[note 5]24 February – 25 March 2022Russian government[78]
Donetsk PR forces1,413 killed, 5,716 wounded26 February – 21 April 2022Donetsk PR[79]
Luhansk PR forces500–600 killed24 February – 5 April 2022Russian government[80]
Russian and allied forces
(RAF, Rosgvardiya,
PMC Wagner, DPR & LPR)
7,000–15,000 killed24 February – 23 March 2022NATO estimate[81]
10,000+ killed24 February – 30 March 2022US estimate[82]

Updated estimates have gotten a lot slower all around as the war's dragged out.
 
>Google is right there
lol yes, and it says you're retarded.
View attachment 3210816
About the only company in the US "producing" steel is Nucor which is mostly just a steel recycling company. There's of course U.S. Steel, but they've been in a death spiral for years now because China and India keep driving down the steel market. Also, you mention Germany, but most of their production does not take place within Germany and their biggest company which is number 2 on the above list is owned by India now.

Edit:
The US government has also said basically the same shit I said.
Cleveland-Cliffs is the largest steelmaker in the US I believe.
 
Defender's advantage doesn't matter as much as it did decades ago. "Official" media-approved estimates have Ukrainian casualties at about half of Russia's, and Ukraine itself has an even more lopsided number. When a few groups actually spoke out and said it was pretty obvious Ukrainian propaganda that NATO was accepting, they just stopped talking about Ukrainian losses altogether, and instead act like Russia's done nothing but lose troops and battles since they got there and that Ukraine is somehow on the verge of counterinvading them, which is all on the same level of reality denial as Hitler's nonexistent counterattack armies in 1945. Denying reality's what their agenda's all about though.
The counter invasion shit is pure copium, but at the same time there is a real chance of this invasion failing without mobilization on Russia's part, depending on what you believe their goals to be at least, such as landlocking Ukraine.
I've found Wikipedia's not too bad a source for the subject of casualties in the war, as long as you aren't interested in Russia's claims as far as how many it's killed/wounded, or Ukraine's claims as far as how many it's killed or wounded. As it stands:

BreakdownCasualtiesTime periodSource
Civilians24,157–24,324+ killed (estimated)[73]
2,500–2,700 killed (processed)[74][75]
24 February – 19 April 2022
24 February – 18 April 2022
Ukrainian government
2,435 killed, 2,946 wounded24 February – 21 April 2022United Nations[75]
Ukrainian forces
(UAF, NGU)
2,500–3,000 killed, 10,000 wounded24 February – 15 April 2022Ukrainian government[76]
2,000–4,000 killed24 February – 9 March 2022US estimate[77]
Russian Armed Forces1,351 killed, 3,825 wounded[note 5]24 February – 25 March 2022Russian government[78]
Donetsk PR forces1,413 killed, 5,716 wounded26 February – 21 April 2022Donetsk PR[79]
Luhansk PR forces500–600 killed24 February – 5 April 2022Russian government[80]
Russian and allied forces
(RAF, Rosgvardiya,
PMC Wagner, DPR & LPR)
7,000–15,000 killed24 February – 23 March 2022NATO estimate[81]
10,000+ killed24 February – 30 March 2022US estimate[82]

Updated estimates have gotten a lot slower all around as the war's dragged out.
Pretty shit and all over the place.

My two cents on how many people Ukraine and Russia has lost, both are probably at the very least over 10k KIA at this point and another 15 to 20k WIA. Ukraine has probably lost more, definitely not by something ridiculous like a 2:1 casualty ratio, and pretty doubtful it's even 1.5:1, Mariupol was a big hit for them in terms of casualties but clearing out urban areas is always costly for the attacker as well, and Ukraine can play the numbers game since they're in total war mode.
 
I've found Wikipedia's not too bad a source for the subject of casualties in the war, as long as you aren't interested in Russia's claims as far as how many it's killed/wounded, or Ukraine's claims as far as how many it's killed or wounded. As it stands:

BreakdownCasualtiesTime periodSource
Civilians24,157–24,324+ killed (estimated)[73]
2,500–2,700 killed (processed)[74][75]
24 February – 19 April 2022
24 February – 18 April 2022
Ukrainian government
2,435 killed, 2,946 wounded24 February – 21 April 2022United Nations[75]
Ukrainian forces
(UAF, NGU)
2,500–3,000 killed, 10,000 wounded24 February – 15 April 2022Ukrainian government[76]
2,000–4,000 killed24 February – 9 March 2022US estimate[77]
Russian Armed Forces1,351 killed, 3,825 wounded[note 5]24 February – 25 March 2022Russian government[78]
Donetsk PR forces1,413 killed, 5,716 wounded26 February – 21 April 2022Donetsk PR[79]
Luhansk PR forces500–600 killed24 February – 5 April 2022Russian government[80]
Russian and allied forces
(RAF, Rosgvardiya,
PMC Wagner, DPR & LPR)
7,000–15,000 killed24 February – 23 March 2022NATO estimate[81]
10,000+ killed24 February – 30 March 2022US estimate[82]

Updated estimates have gotten a lot slower all around as the war's dragged out.
I'd imagine it's something like 10,000 KIA + WIA for Russia and 18,000 KIA + WIA for Ukraine, fairly close to a 2:1 but not all there given that there's a general parity between them in terms of numbers and equipment. If/when Russia starts sending in frontline units that'll more than likely change. I think Russia's underreported their losses overall, but I think their estimates are still more accurate than Ukraine's. Last I checked they were claiming something like a 10:1 ratio against Russian forces. It's important to note though that Ukraine doesn't have that bad of a military. Russia's stronger, but they've mainly sent in secondary or reservist units against the entirety of Ukraine's army. The media's trying to paint Russia as fighting the equivalent of Somalia and getting its ass kicked, when in reality it's fighting a competent regional power and achieving success with a few setbacks. I feel bad for both armies losing men while their leaders, especially Zalenksy, are treating it like a political game or something though.
 
Besides foreign volunteers American troops were only deployed for about a year for one campaign, and though we did take pretty fucking heavy casualties it was a war that was more or less already won by that point, we just sped up the outcome (and took a little too much credit postwar).
To be fair, the American entry into the war in 1918 had shocked the Central Powers, as they did not expect the US to rearm and ship their men over that quickly. (Sounds familiar, doesn't it?) Prior, they were already drawing up plans for extending the war into 1919 and beyond, but the sheer weight of numbers (even if the actual American performance in the war were shockingly dismal) convinced Hindenburg and Luderhoff that there was no fighting their inevitable loss.
 
actually the Americans were there for just the last year, a few volunteers aside. The grind of trench warfare and mass casualties for 4 years destroyed France's resolve as a nation for a generation after. Ukraine's fervent patriots are all dying in mass, the apathetic ones are doing their best to surrender if they can't flee overpressured positions.
Well then, demoralization is back on the table. I have doubts that the average Ukrainian from the Kiev suburbs is going to be happy to be sent to what is the Ukrainian equivalent of "Ohio".

Just imagine being told "you have to risk your life to save Detroit." No one in their right mind is going to accept that order.
 
Pretty shit and all over the place.
It's sourced and dated estimates. Makes for a nice starting point for the minimums. After that you're left either getting into evaluating how plausible Russia and Ukraine's claims about their kill counts are, or just straight up pulling numbers out of thin air.

I'd imagine it's something like 10,000 KIA + WIA for Russia and 18,000 KIA + WIA for Ukraine, fairly close to a 2:1 but not all there given that there's a general parity between them in terms of numbers and equipment. If/when Russia starts sending in frontline units that'll more than likely change. I think Russia's underreported their losses overall, but I think their estimates are still more accurate than Ukraine's. Last I checked they were claiming something like a 10:1 ratio against Russian forces.
Last I checked was a bit over a week ago. Ukraine's claims were at a roughly 7:1 ratio, while Russia was the one claiming a 10:1 ratio. Looking back to what we were arguing at the time, Russia was claiming 14,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed and 16,000 wounded as of March 25th, while Ukraine as of April 15th was claiming 19,000 to 20,000 Russian soldiers killed(article linked just said casualties but was clearly using it to mean killed), and no estimate of how many they'd wounded.

So taking Russia's claims at face value, as of March 25th Russia was claiming 14,000 kills to 1,351 deaths, or a ratio of roughly 10.36:1 kills/deaths and 16,000 enemies wounded to 3,825 injured soldiers or a ratio of roughly 4.18:1 wounds inflicted/suffered. Taking Ukraine's claims at face value, as of April 15th they were claiming up to 20,000 kills to 3000 deaths, or a ratio of roughly 6.67:1 kills/deaths. While admitting to 10,000 wounded and making no estimate of how many Russians they'd wounded. So I'd take Ukraine's claims here as far more likely by virtue of them having the less absurd ratio claimed. Especially as their April 15th claim was no more than 5000 more than the upper end estimate from NATO on March 23rd three weeks before. Which would be consistent with Ukraine getting a lot of kills in poorly guarded supply lines to the north early on when Russia basically thought they could just walk in and take over, then having less success after Russia got smarter and eventually pulled back.

Now, taking both sides kill claims at face value we're at 20,000 Russian soldiers killed vs 14,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed, or a ratio of roughly 1.43:1 in Ukraine's favor. If you take into account the time difference between when each side made their claim, it probably gets even closer to even.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back