I think his conclusions are wrong and don't take into account that most of the western money and material coming to Ukraine is getting more advanced and numerous almost every week and Russia will struggle in the long term to get the advanced components to produce the smart weapons that are almost indispensable in modern war due to sanctions. (unless China gets involved in the war)
His point about conscripts is total bullshit because Russia has lost a lot of combat potential for it's professional forces and they're scraping the bottom of the barrel by bringing mercenaries and foreign fighters from the Middle East and the Caucasus, in short, they have a manpower
Russian sources are just as autistically retarded as Western sources, just in reverse.
Irregardless, I don't expect the gun drops on Ukisrael will change the outcome of the war, and doubt Nato expects them to. This is partly about making the war as damaging and costly for Russia as possible (it also does the same thing to Ukraine but nobody cares about Ukrainians), partly about setting up the successor state of Western Ukraine to become a Nato FOB disguised as a country in preparation for the next war with Russia.
Their economy is now almost exclusively based on Western charity, which comes with unpleasant strings attached (no peace until the US says you can have peace), more than 5 million of their most valuable citizens (women of childbearing age and the kids) have left
so far, and they've suffered unknown but probably terrible casualties among their professional fighting men.
Doesn't matter very much at this point if they get 1,000 Abrams tanks with laser cannons, it'll take months to years to train a new army, integrate new weapons systems, update their doctrine. Ukraine doesn't have that kind of time. It's headed toward being a failed state / American Manchukuo / permanent PvP zone.
Russia has probably lost a few thousand men already, but since they have the fifth largest military in the world in terms of active duty manpower, they're very far away from scraping the barrel. Instead, they're determined to do this war as cheaply as possible for a bunch of reasons. Getting Chechens and ME dudes to do Russia's dirty work is partly a response to Nato's attempts to bleed the Russian army dry in Ukraine. Can't bleed Russia dry if you're killing not-Russians
But it also means Russia expects, or is at least preparing for, the followup to their Ukrainian Bogus Journey. Which, sad to say, is looking pretty likely before 2030 and will be the true sequel to WW2 we've all been waiting for.
