Russian Invasion of Ukraine Megathread

How well is the war this going for Russia?

  • ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Blyatskrieg

    Votes: 249 10.6%
  • ⭐⭐⭐⭐ I ain't afraid of no Ghost of Kiev

    Votes: 278 11.8%
  • ⭐⭐⭐ Competent attack with some upsets

    Votes: 796 33.7%
  • ⭐⭐ Stalemate

    Votes: 659 27.9%
  • ⭐ Ukraine takes back Crimea 2022

    Votes: 378 16.0%

  • Total voters
    2,360
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Mathematics, statistics, and wargame theory isn't in my wheelhouse, but I stumbled upon something that was still fairly interesting; while reading on the subject of Russia playing longball in this war, and Ukraine still being able to win.

Lanchester's Laws
... are mathematical formulae for calculating the relative strengths of military forces. The Lanchester equations are differential equations describing the time dependence of two armies' strengths A and B as a function of time, with the function depending only on A and B.
And amusingly:
Zoologists have found chimpanzees intuitively follow Lanchester's square law before engaging another troop of chimpanzees. A group of chimpanzees will not attack another group unless the numerical advantage is at least a factor of 1.5.
Yet somehow Russia fucked up their invasion, where even chimps wouldn't have.

And then there's this: the Salvo combat-model.
.... describes the basic elements of modern missile combat in a very simple manner. This is similar to how Lanchester's square law provides a simple model of modern gun combat.
Although intended for naval warfare, I wonder if something like this could be relevant in the planning/assessment of tank warfare & mechanized infantry engagements, given the number of ATGMs being used in a fairly target-rich environment.

In any case.... no doubt this stuff is first-year shit in war colleges & officer training schools, which I guess is why they get paid the big cash money wad. But though it's not something my brain can easily parse, maybe someone with more autism & time can make use of it.
 
I'm constantly amazed at how the Ukies manage to fuck up but this one really backfired and has Russians literally crying and demanding retribution.

I admit this really offended and upset me. She just a poor, old lady in a warzone and didn't deserve that.
The ukrainian soldiers gave her food in the video the russians are upset about. Being old is not an excuse for waving a Soviet flag in the country which most affected by the Holodomor and other Soviet crimes while also supporting a foreign invasion.
 
The ukrainian soldiers gave her food in the video the russians are upset about. Being old is not an excuse for waving a Soviet flag in the country which most affected by the Holodomor and other Soviet crimes while also supporting a foreign invasion.
Shut up slavneger lover, she's old and senile. You don't abuse old people, much less record it and put it on the internet. I hope you end up in a nursing home where sheboons slap you around, leave you to stew in your own filth all day and insult you all night long and then put it on Tik Tok so all the other hood rats can laugh at you.
 
Shut up slavneger lover, she's old and senile. You don't abuse old people, much less record it and put it on the internet. I hope you end up in a nursing home where sheboons slap you around, leave you to stew in your own filth all day and insult you all night long and then put it on Tik Tok so all the other hood rats can laugh at you.
Issue is Vatniks aren't making a symbol out of some senile lady who belongs in an old folks home being abused, they're making a symbol out of a lady that's waving around a soviet flag.

Vatniks are hilarious that way, they can't seem to understand why nearly every single country that was split off from the USSR or the Warsaw Pact absolutely loathes their 50 to 70 years under Soviet rule. Fucking Stalin is looked upon favorably by modern Russia, and not just because "he" defeated the Nazis (even though he shared a massive amount of the blame of the massive military disasters of the USSR during 1941 and early to mid 1942 because he got in the way and purged most of the competent officers.)

Vatniks seethe about places like Poland destroying Commie monuments because they view themselves as liberators of Europe, and they view this war as a version 2.0 where they liberate shit again, completely whitewashing the fact that that right up until Barbarossa they helped Germany's war effort massively, not to mention the fact the USSR performed mass executions inside Poland, and modern Russia encourages romanticization of the USSR and saying that even outside of World War 2 Stalin was actually a good leader.

Vatniks don't care that some old person with one foot already in the grave got shit on by Ukrie troops, they care because they saw they can make her an idol that encourages further romanticization of a country and it's former satellite states that fell apart as soon as the threat of tanks rolling in was taken off the table. Gorbachev may have been a fucking idiot, but he exposed how only a small minority in the regions under the USSR and countries in the Warsaw Pact actually wanted to be in the USSR and the Warsaw Pact, and Vatniks have been seething ever since.
 
I'm starting to get the suspicion that that dude loves his cocaine and is constantly coked out for interviews.


if you want to know what your enemy is doing behind closed doors, listen to what they accuse you of. tbf wouldnt be surprised if yeah, both are cokeheads
 
German–Polish declaration of non-aggression
Munich Agreement
Peace for our time
German–Estonian Non-Aggression Pact
German–Latvian Non-Aggression Pact
German–Romanian Treaty for the Development of Economic Relations between the Two Countries
Lots of allies for Germany, don't you think?
also
Без названия.jpg
Assad is fucking right
Russia encourages romanticization of the USSR

If you are a moron, then sure

“Whoever does not miss the Soviet Union has no heart. Whoever wants it back has no brain.”​

― Vladimir Putin
Stalin was actually a good leader
He was a ruthless leader who managed to do the job. No more, no less.
Vatniks don't care that some old person with one foot already in the grave got shit on by Ukrie troops
Mind reading much? Is it bewildering to you that people that you dislike have a distaste for the abuse of senile old ladies?
Gorbachev may have been a fucking idiot, but he exposed how only a small minority in the regions under the USSR and countries in the Warsaw Pact actually wanted to be in the USSR
Of course, they were threatened into submission, and the distaste of future generations has nothing to do with the economic hellhole that was made out of the union by Gorbi and later Yeltsin.

A referendum on the future of the Soviet Union was held on 17 March 1991 across the Soviet Union. The question put to voters was
Do you consider necessary the preservation of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics as a renewed federation of equal sovereign republics in which the rights and freedom of an individual of any ethnicity will be fully guaranteed?
1650957457606.png1650957269525.png
 
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A referendum on the future of the Soviet Union was held on 17 March 1991 across the Soviet Union. The question put to voters was

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This was before the coup attempt by the hardliners in August, which failed so hard that it speed up the end of Soviet Union.
Good riddance, as the Soviet Union was rotten to the core.
 
This was before the coup attempt by the hardliners in August, which failed so hard that it speed up the end of Soviet Union.
Good riddance, as the Soviet Union was rotten to the core.
The soviet union was complete and utter dogshit, but the collapse was a cluster fuck. It ended up unleashing just as much bad shit as the soviets did because of how it went down. It was really a no happy endings type situation.
 
The soviet union was complete and utter dogshit, but the collapse was a cluster fuck. It ended up unleashing just as much bad shit as the soviets did because of how it went down. It was really a no happy endings type situation.
The Baltic’s were very happy that the Soviet fell. Being under occupation for 40 years and getting their country’s ruined make you hate it.
Anyone who is nostalgic for it is, is a tankie or a lunatic.
 
This was before World War 2 broke out, and the M-R Pact was fuck ton a lot more than just non-aggression, it was "Hey let's not just not fight each other, but instead fight together and we each get what we want from Poland."

If you are a moron, then sure

“Whoever does not miss the Soviet Union has no heart. Whoever wants it back has no brain.”​

― Vladimir Putin
From 2017, Russian FM gets pissy about Poland announcing intentions to destroy some Soviet era war memorials that glorify the Red Army.
 

If you are a moron, then sure

“Whoever does not miss the Soviet Union has no heart. Whoever wants it back has no brain.”​

― Vladimir Putin
This is hard for boomer/zoomers fed a steady diet of "Russian Commies coming for you" their entire lives to understand. And they won't.
Mind reading much? Is it bewildering to you that people that you dislike have a distaste for the abuse of senile old ladies?
They do not care; the dehumanization of a certain segment of the population is complete and absolute. There is no empathy, not even the cold calculated understanding that normalizing relations would benefit them and make them wealthier; they do not care. These same people, if this was done to a loved one, or themselves, if and when they would require care, would wail and denounce the abusers as inhuman scum. But since they perceive the old woman as not being on their side, she deserves no sympathy or decent treatment, despite, or maybe even because of, her diminished mental state, and attack anyone showing any kindness.

It is more important to show your allegiance and support of The Current Thing even if you have to kick a helpless old woman and denounce anyone coming to her aid.
 
This was before World War 2 broke out
Hey let's not just not fight each other, but instead fight together and we each get what we want from Poland
Again. Munich Agreement
Yeah, how convenient for this history to start in Poland and not Czechoslovakia. Because suddenly, Czechoslovakia ceased to be a sovereign country, since the good guys decided so and just fed it to Germany. Again, when major powers agree on a Nazi land grab, it's good. When the Soviets do it, it's evil.
From 2017, Russian FM gets pissy about Poland announcing intentions to destroy some Soviet era war memorials that glorify the Red Army.
Aha, revering your war veterans is kind of a common thing, and when you destroy their monuments, the guys get kind of pissed.

It seems obvious, does it not?
 
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