Russian Invasion of Ukraine Megathread

[Spicey McHaggis]

I am not lurking here very often, because i don't really care about this war.

But what are the odds that Putin will drop the A-Bomb?

Low. Incredibly low. Despite plenty of people fear mongering, the odds of any global leader, not just putin, dropping a nuke are ridiculously small.

 

[kuuu]

AFU entrenchment getting hit by TOS and artillery.
Might not be a fresh vid.

 

[Ponzo]

Low. Incredibly low. Despite plenty of people fear mongering, the odds of any global leader, not just putin, dropping a nuke are ridiculously small.

If Romania really moves into Moldova/Transnistria and the NATO establishes a "buffer zone" around odessa (like they did in Syria) so Ukraine doesn't end up landlocked, the chances are not that small that it could escalate. Syria is one thing, i don't think Putin will accept the NATO fucking around in Ukraine.

And we already know NATO are criminal bastards that don't really give a shit about casualties

 

[Jimjamflimflam]

Want to rant about Scott Sibley guy I'm hearing about today, skip this post if you don't care

Spoiler: Rant

fuck that anglo and fuck the people supporting him. Runs off to play hero in ukraine while leaving his young daughter with cancer behind and what does he got to show for it? A death certiface because his dumbass got yeet by the russians.

Fuck him and fuck everyone calling him a hero for abandoning his family and more importantly this cancer daughter.

 

[Spicey McHaggis]

If Romania really moves into Moldova/Transnistria and the NATO establishes a "buffer zone" around odessa (like they did in Syria) so Ukraine doesn't end up landlocked, the chances are not that small that it could escalate. Syria is one thing, i don't think Putin will accept the NATO fucking around in Ukraine.

And we already know NATO are criminal bastards that don't really give a shit about casualties

I'd still say even then, it's incredibly fucking low. Even that still wouldn't meet the national survival threshold for using nukes. Tanks approaching Moscow? Sure that does it, but realistically, it's preferable to lose a war outside of your core territory than to start a nuclear war. I wouldn't lose any sleep over nukes flying. We've had people saying that nato or the russians/soviets want nuclear war for generations now. Somehow they've been wrong the entire time.

 

[DumbDude42]

I'd still say even then, it's incredibly fucking low. Even that still wouldn't meet the national survival threshold for using nukes. Tanks approaching Moscow? Sure that does it, but realistically, it's preferable to lose a war outside of your core territory than to start a nuclear war. I wouldn't lose any sleep over nukes flying. We've had people saying that nato or the russians/soviets want nuclear war for generations now. Somehow they've been wrong the entire time.

in part you are right. russia as a state can easily afford losing in ukraine without being threatened in its existence.
however, putins regime probably can't. losing in ukraine would be impossible to sell to russians, he'd end up ousted from power and probably killed.
because of this, i could see putin being willing to start nuclear war, because if he's gonna end up dead anyway, why not fuck shit up on your way out?
the question then is whether the russian military will carry out such an order, or refuse and rebel. no way for us to know this in advance.

 

[Ponzo]

I'd still say even then, it's incredibly fucking low. Even that still wouldn't meet the national survival threshold for using nukes. Tanks approaching Moscow? Sure that does it, but realistically, it's preferable to lose a war outside of your core territory than to start a nuclear war. I wouldn't lose any sleep over nukes flying. We've had people saying that nato or the russians/soviets want nuclear war for generations now. Somehow they've been wrong the entire time.

We never had a conflict as retarded as this before. Literally every single western country is clutching its pearls over Ukraine and sending arms and billions in aid with NATO training their troops to use "western" equipment. If NATO happens to greenlight an operation like they did in Libya (Operation Unified Protector), this could all escalate. Russia won't take NATO troops shooting down their planes or bombing their troops.

 

[Spicey McHaggis]

in part you are right. russia as a state can easily afford losing in ukraine without it threatening its existence.
however, putins regime probably can't. losing in ukraine would be impossible to sell to russians, he'd end up ousted from power and probably killed.
because of this, i could see putin being willing to start nuclear war, because if he's gonna end up dead anyway, why not fuck shit up on your way out?
the question then is whether the russian military will carry out such an order, or refuse and rebel. no way for us to know this in advance.

I don't see putin getting killed as the most likely outcome of him losing power. If anything he'd probably get a golden handshake type deal just to fuck off quietly.

 

[Spicey McHaggis]

We never had a conflict as retarded as this before. Literally every single western country is clutching its pearls over Ukraine and sending arms and billions in aid with NATO training their troops to use "western" equipment. If NATO happens to greenlight an operation like they did in Libya (Operation Unified Protector), this could all escalate. Russia won't take NATO troops shooting down their planes or bombing their troops.

Nigger what do you think the Vietnam War was? It was quite literally the soviet union sending billions of dollars worth of its best gear to kill Americans. This is nothing new. Nukes will not fly over this.

 

[Sexual Chocolate]

Low. Incredibly low. Despite plenty of people fear mongering, the odds of any global leader, not just putin, dropping a nuke are ridiculously small.

Idk if this is the right way to think about the possibility of nuclear war.

It's unlikely to happen after some world leader calmly weighed the options and said "Da, let the nukes fly". It's more likely to happen due to misunderstandings, escalation, fear and confusion, all of which are pretty easily obtained in peace time, and more so in war.

The Cuban Missile Crisis nearly turned into WW3 because US Navy ships were depth charging a nuclear armed Soviet sub. They thought they were forcing the sub to surface. The Russian captain believed WW3 might already have started, and wanted to launch nuclear torpedoes.

In 1983 the Soviets already believed NATO was about to nuke them, and then their early warning radar malfunctioned and reported the launch of American ICBM's.

These weren't the only close calls, they're just two that we know about. The longer and harder Russia and NATO rub up against each other, the more likely something worse will happen. Intentions don't really matter, capabilities are what matter.

 

[Ponzo]

Nigger what do you think the Vietnam War was? It was quite literally the soviet union sending billions of dollars worth of its best gear to kill Americans. This is nothing new. Nukes will not fly over this.

I don't remember russians bombing americans during the vietnam war or creating buffer zones around vietnamese cities to protect them. We are talking about NATO involvement here which is not that unlikely considering they already throw the book at ukraine.

 

[Spicey McHaggis]

I don't remember russians bombing americans during the vietnam war or creating buffer zones around vietnamese cities to protect them. We are talking about NATO involvement here which is not that unlikely considering they already throw the book at ukraine.

There were dozens of times throughout the cold war where nato and soviet forces engaged each other, with fatalities, and no war. I think you're vastly underestimating just how far things have to go before nato goes to war or nukes fly.

 

[Elwin Ransom]

I am not lurking here very often, because i don't really care about this war.

But what are the odds that Putin will drop the A-Bomb?

In the current situation, zero.
However, if there is direct NATO intervention, Russia will (correctly) see it as a war of national survival, a second Great Patriotic War, and from that point all bets are off. Certainly the nukes will fly long before an American M1 drives into Moscow.

 

[Super Book]

While I don't disagree that a tactical nuke might get used if Russia becomes incredibly desperate and NATO starts breathing down their back more, thinking that they will go full scorched earth in Ukraine and try to wipe it off the map with an atom bomb is kinda going against their plans. What the hell are they going do to with the land they acquired if it's completely radiated and destroyed? I think most discussions around the topic end up being more or less fearmongering/doomposting.

 

[JosephStalin]

Lol what? Nuclear war is far from inevitable. People have been saying that for over seven decades now, and yet here we are, nuclear war free. There's been periods of for greater tension that didn't result in nuclear war.

Shit, I remember when the Soviets wanted to nuke China in 1969 but President Nixon said no.

 

[Spicey McHaggis]

Shit, I remember when the Soviets wanted to nuke China in 1969 but President Nixon said no.

Yeah, towards the end of the cold war the soviets were far more afraid of the Chinese than the US. In hindsight, we probably could have used that as the basis of us-russian relations post Cold War, but it will remain a "what if" for the foreseeable future. Who knows though, there may be another sino-russian split, and maybe we'll re-evaluate our relationship with Russia then.

 

[Mr Processor]

The question shouldn't be, "Could this escalate into a nuclear war?" but rather, "Am I willing for myself and everyone I know to die in a nuclear war for Zelenskyy?" The answer should be obvious.

Honestly, who could say no to that face? I regret that I have only one life to sacrifice for Zelenskyy!

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky owns $850 million in assets and is questioned where he got that much money.

News of his stupendous income was released by the Pandora Papers leak that revealed his actual wealth, which would have been secret until the expose. He was presented in such a way that any form of corruption was the farthest notion until now.

Volodymyr Zelensky's $850 Million Accumulated Assets Questioned by Dutch Party After Campaign Vows Against Corruption During Elections​

Honestly, though, the time to really worry is if US troops and Russian troops are facing each other for real on a battlefield. The reason why the nukes could fly in such an instance is simple because both sides would have to be prepared for the other side launching them all at once. It's kind of funny to read people talk like Russia would launch a nuke at Washington, DC and then another one later, possible at NYC. No, they'd launch every nuke aimed at every major NATO city all at once. All our nukes would launch around the same time. I mean MAD doctrine hasn't changed, has it? The whole reason we never directly took on the Soviet Union was due to that.

But of course, we didn't have a charismatic man like Zelenskyy to make it worth it at that time. If only we had, maybe we'd have taken Stalin out back then. It's very sad that Zelenskyy was not the leader of the free world back then!

 

[draggs]

Russia has failed to take Kiev or Kharkov and has made no real advances in the last 4 weeks other than pushing Azov back to the steel factory without NATO soldiers being on the battlefield, why would NATO soldiers show up when Russia has yet to show it can decisively beat the hohols?

 

[JoseRaulChupacabra]

The question shouldn't be, "Could this escalate into a nuclear war?" but rather, "Am I willing for myself and everyone I know to die in a nuclear war for Zelenskyy?" The answer should be obvious.

LOL imagine dying for a country that isn't even your own.

 

[Cavalier Cipolla]

I am not lurking here very often, because i don't really care about this war.

But what are the odds that Putin will drop the A-Bomb?

Very unlikely, as he's threatening to do it. He generally does the opposite he says, threats wise.
Besides, the oligarchs hope to eventually return to their western mansions, and their kids are studying in the finest western private schools.
Besides, dropping nukes doesn't really make it credible that it's just a special military operation, even to the biggest vatniks.
Even nuking Ukraine is unlikely, because...well geography. Belarus probably wouldn't want fallout in its turf and neither would Russia.
And there's also the question whether or not the nukes are even maintained properly, and thus weapon worthy. Imagine if they barely make it out of the silos and then blow up in Russia.