Looks like that's it for connections from Slovakia & Poland to Ukraine for now.
What remains are the Hungarian connections (irrelevant, no arms shipments allowed through) and I believe some Romanian connections, though perhaps not to Odessa since they were also hit today.
Three days ago, Yampol was taken. Today, LiveUAMaps quietly admitted it. The Russians slowly and silently inch towards Slaviansk. An offensive is being prepared by the LPR and Russian forces towards the city (village?) of Barvinkove. Looks like the second battle of Slaviansk will happen eventually, but in my opinion it will still take a while. Lyman and Barvinkove must still be taken, as well as a lot of villages in between.
Talking of bombs and missiles. I saw a very interesting video today about the old W-53 (Titan II) nucular bomb! The largest bomb ever put in to service by the USA. 9 Megatons. It's located in Arizona and you can still go and see it up close and personal and even do a mock firing of it. It's decommissioned of course otherwise that might be highly dangerous.
Based upon the Mk-53 "hydrogen" bomb, the W53 was modified to be carried by the Titan II Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM). With a yield in the megaton range, the W53 fit into a Mk-6 re-entry vehicle installed on top of the Titan II.
The interesting thing about this missile is the fact that it only had 3 final destinations. No MIRVs so it's basically just one big fuck off warhead. It also is limited to a range of just over 6000 Miles. I looked up on Google maps and it could just about hit Moscow, Tokyo and Beijing (formerly Peking): the capital cities of Russia, Japan and China respectively.
I can't think what other cities this monster would be aimed at. It's a Strategic weapon so only used when SHTF in a major way. The Countervalue plan - aimed at restricting the other sides ability to rebuild and reconstruct after nuclear war has broken out for real, and most of your cities have been destroyed anyway, so it doesn't really matter. Deaths in the 10's of Millions and more.
This bomb/missile combo could be programmed on launch to be airburst or surface burst, with airburst causing many more casualties according to the nuke similators I tried. But it seems as if certain cities were chosen then that would inform which one would be used. Perhaps one had greater underground facilities which they would be more interested in destroying rather than just killing millions of the population which they would be doing anyway. 1 death is a tragedy and all that...
The 3 Cities chosen that it was pre-programmed to hit were classified then and classified now. Would be interesting to know what they were. The missiles were put out of action in the late 80's. Here's the video I watched:
They all had somethng like 5 Million fucking dead with 5-10 Million more casualties. I guess those figures are based on today's population stats. It's purely theoretical/hypothetical.
I mean, the USA might have had them pointed at Mexico or France or Australia, or wherever the fuck, but those 3 candidates seem the most likely to me. I'm 99 percent certain Moscow was one of them, but they might have had another Russian City as well, or all 3! Whatever, I think China was probably on the list somewhere as they were already a Nuclear power then. I'm probably wrong about Tokyo because the Japs weren't a nucular power then or now. I guess we'll never know.
Anyway, all this shit goes to show how seriously this has been taken by both sides, and to even throw around threats about using these monsters is a form of unhinged insanity in itself.
This is how close we could actually come to a nuclear Armageddon -
Once shit pops off you are looking at 100 Million dead without later casualties and the fact the whole of Planet Earth would be 'salted' for probably centuries to come. I've no idea, but what is frightening about that video is that it was only made a few years back and the main instigator of SHTF was a Russian shot across the bows, to warn Nato off, which would then be retaliated against.
It takes in to consideration the posturing involved and it specifically names USA and Russia as the main protagonists. It talks about an escalation from conventional war and once the nuclear button is pressed, all bets are off from it not escalating in to full on nuclear war including the aforementioned Countervalue plan which is basically a guaranteed setback for all humanity lasting at least a century.
That is the bit that sent a chill down my spine. It's a frightening video and if you haven't seen it yet (probably someone posted it before here) then it's worth a watch. Basically Russia is the bluffer in all of this, but once their bluff is called, it's all in for them, taking out Nato bases across all of Europe would be the first thing they did if their bluff was actually called. No turning back from that. Europe would suffer more than any other place on Earth and practically be wiped out.
Goodbye UK, as well, because we have a shit ton of those missiles pointed at us. They say that the other launch missiles that we had here have all gone now IIRC, (Pershing???), but still there are US bases with nuclear capable planes/bombers. I don't know.
These growing tensions and the looming deployment of new nuclear weapons in Western Europe was met with alarm by millions of citizens. In the UK, the government’s decision to station Cruise missiles at two military bases – Greenham Common and Molesworth – was accompanied by the separate decision to modernise the British nuclear deterrent by replacing the ageing Polaris with the new Trident system. These decisions, against the backdrop of what British Foreign Secretary Lord Carrington called the ‘megaphone diplomacy’ between the superpowers, raised fears that an unimaginably destructive nuclear war was increasingly possible.
The Russian-NATO dispute on Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) has gone on for nearly a decade
These decisions, against the backdrop of what British Foreign Secretary Lord Carrington called the ‘megaphone diplomacy’ between the superpowers, raised fears that an unimaginably destructive nuclear war was increasingly possible.
Now, I don't think anyone is going to go nuking anyone, not even a shot against the bows. So all this is moot. But the really scary fucking thing is that if one person dares to hit that big red button because of whatever reason, then it seems more than plausible that things would escalate to a far more frightening degree. Perhaps not even full on nuclear Armageddon, but certainly to an extent that all our lives would be changed for ever (those that had them left) and also the lives of our children and their children.
IIRC the smallest nuclear bomb ever made. For tactical use on the battlefield.
Or who knows, maybe they didn't, and some madman actually thinks they can gain some kind of tactical advantage by using one if they have one in their inventory. I doubt they've stopped researching them. They probably have nukes the size of hand-grenades now!
It's the Davy Crockett's of this world that start world wars and herald nuclear holocausts to come for humanity, not the Titan II's (W-53).
Who cares if your Earth is salted, after there's very little of it left, or rather very few people in decent shape to inhabit it?
@K-Hole IIRC There was a wargame that the British military played out to test various levels of 'Nuclear viability' to ascertain what various levels of command would do when given authority over nuclear bombs. They found that nearly every single member of the military - once given the option to let them off the chain - would use nuclear weapons, be it strategic or tactical. Once the genie's out the bottle, there's no putting it back, especially as once your upper command gets nuked, and control drops down, we wouldn't see a decrease in the use of atomics, but rather either an increase or a maintenance of their use.
@K-Hole IIRC There was a wargame that the British military played out to test various levels of 'Nuclear viability' to ascertain what various levels of command would do when given authority over nuclear bombs. They found that nearly every single member of the military - once given the option to let them off the chain - would use nuclear weapons, be it strategic or tactical. Once the genie's out the bottle, there's no putting it back, especially as once your upper command gets nuked, and control drops down, we wouldn't see a decrease in the use of atomics, but rather either an increase or a maintenance of their use.
Yet the reality of the British nuclear deterrent is a malfunctioning submarine in the North Atlantic, with the crew constantly trying to repair it to ensure it can get back to port before the next barely functioning sub can replace it.
Tokyo was actually a likely target back in the day. If the Chinese break through the first island chain and manage to get a foothold in Japan, then everything is on the table. And Russia entertained the possibility of invading Japan via Kuril during the Cold War in order to give them a forward-operating base in the Pacific.
These days highly unlikely. The Japanaese have a sophisticated navy of their own and are not likely to be threatened by a Chinese (much less Russian) amphibious invasion. Of course, Japan is inching closer and closer towards acquiring nuclear armaments so who knows where the balance of power will stand a few decades from now.
Tokyo was actually a likely target back in the day. If the Chinese break through the first island chain and manage to get a foothold in Japan, then everything is on the table. And Russia entertained the possibility of invading Japan via Kuril during the Cold War in order to give them a forward-operating base in the Pacific.
These days highly unlikely. The Japanaese have a sophisticated navy of their own and are not likely to be threatened by a Chinese (much less Russian) amphibious invasion. Of course, Japan is inching closer and closer towards acquiring nuclear armaments so who knows where the balance of power will stand a few decades from now.
If Japan wanted nukes, it would probably be less than a year from the time of the decision to getting a working weapon. If the mutual defense agreement with the US ever ends, they will make them. For now though, I think they're fine with the US providing the nuclear shield.
Yet the reality of the British nuclear deterrent is a malfunctioning submarine in the North Atlantic, with the crew constantly trying to repair it to ensure it can get back to port before the next barely functioning sub can replace it.
That's what happens when you underfund your state of the art gear, barely test it; and then cope like crazy. IIRC, they justified the trident test going the wrong way, and then crashing as 'Well the Americans ones work! So ours do as well, despite that being literally fucking retarded. They didn't even bother justifying the HMS Astute grounding itself, the HMS Tireless having an onboard explosion - that killed two sailors - or the HMS Vanguard ramming the French sub.
We're having a naval recruitment drive right now; especially for the submarines. So I imagine the government will be trying to either big up the astute that I think is due to deploy after testing soon, 'overhaul' the Vanguards, or just try and prepare for when the Dreadnought class is ready for launch - whenever that may be. The actual issue of course, is that we don't seem to have enough submariners, enough submarines for an actual deterrent - or at least one that exists as more than a 'don't make me get up!' Schrodinger threat - or enough funding to maintain what we do have currently. We need to up spending, recruit more sailors, and seriously consider war as a concern rather than a holding action until big daddy USA arrives with his endless supply of guns, bombs, and midwestern dirt farmers ordered to die so we can have grubhub; and at least try to maintain a navy worth a damn.
If Japan wanted nukes, it would probably be less than a year from the time of the decision to getting a working weapon, probably less. If the mutual defense agreement with the US ever ends, they will make them. For now though, I think they're fine with the US providing the nuclear shield.
Oh I definitely agree. There is a pretty large faction of the Japanese government that wants nuclear weapons but the issue itself is political suicide in Japan. I wouldn't be surprised if some crisis in the near-future changes that and we see Japan acquire their own nuclear weapons.
Oh I definitely agree. There is a pretty large faction of the Japanese government that wants nuclear weapons but the issue itself is political suicide in Japan. I wouldn't be surprised if some crisis in the near-future changes that and we see Japan acquire their own nuclear weapons.
I wouldn't be surprised if this war leads to a Japanese military buildup. They have to be looking at this and wondering how much it will embolden China to make moves on various disputed areas. Taiwan isn't the only island China claims that's occupied by another country, and all of them would be a much easier fight than Taiwan. Less political fallout as well depending on what country they go after.
I wouldn't be surprised if this war leads to a Japanese military buildup. They have to be looking at this and wondering how much it will embolden China to make moves on various disputed areas. Taiwan isn't the only island China claims that's occupied by another country, and all of them would be a much easier fight than Taiwan. Less political fallout as well depending on what country they go after.
Japan's been doing military build-up since like 2010. Being one of the largest importers of mideast oil but not having forces to put on the table when mideast happenings are underway has put them in a very vulnerable position and they know it.
They already have the fourth largest navy in the world in terms of tonnage.
@K-Hole, that "Plan A" clip reminds me a bit of the ending of the movie "War Games".
One Youtuber dropped that comment.
Todd Stohs
Me, 39 years ago: Wow, what an awesome movie with an uplifting final message!
Me today: Frantically searching for the "Ukrainian Escalation" scenario.
Japan's been doing military build-up since like 2010. Being one of the largest importers of mideast oil but not having forces to put on the table when mideast happenings are underway has put them in a very vulnerable position and they know it.
They already have the fourth largest navy in the world in terms of tonnage.
They have the Izumo class and its predecessor the Hyuuga class. Both of these are technically termed 'helicopter destroyers' but modifying them to launch STOVL aircraft like the F-35B would be trivial. Four such vessels are currently in operation by the JSDF.
It's real shit. Several "helicopter destroyers" that definitely aren't f35 carriers. Until they finally said fuck it and admitted they were. They've got a good sub fleet as well.
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They have the Izumo class and its predecessor the Hyuuga class. Both of these are technically termed 'helicopter destroyers' but modifying them to launch STOVL aircraft like the F-35B would be trivial. Four such vessels are currently in operation by the JSDF.
They've already started converting some of them I believe and iirc test flights have been made. I wouldn't be surprised if they make an outright catapult carrier soon though. These ships will help rebuild their ability for carrier operations.
Speaking of which. For some fucking reason a lot of the guys on the Pro-Russia side of things hyping up these nuclear threats seem to forget about Mutually Assured Destruction.
Plus I'm admittedly not an expert on the matter, but I do question if it's even possible to cause a massive tsunami with a nuclear weapon unless it's significantly more powerful than even the Tsar Bomba.
Substation "Sknilov-transit" — 49.829456, 23.945272
