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You made a very compelling case for siding with Russia.
For the sake of balance I'd like to hear an equally good argument in favour of taking Ukraine's side.
Russian Invasion of Ukraine Megathread
- Thread starter L50LasPak
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For the sake of balance I'd like to hear an equally good argument in favour of taking Ukraine's side.
That wasn't a turret throw. That was the launch of ukraine's newest weapon piloted by The Toast of Kyiv.
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♫I NEVER GIVE IT IIIIIIIIIIIN♫
♫OOOOOOOON WITH THE SHOOOOOOOOOOOOW♫
♫I'll top the bill♫
♫I'll overkill♫
♫I have to find the will to carry on♫
♫On with the shoooooow♫
♫The show must go oooon... go ooon... go oooon... go oooon...♫
K-Hole
kiwifarms.net
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Both Russia and Ukraine are major wheat/grain exporters apparently. Russia is a major fossil fuel exporter. There were massive deposits of oil and natural gas found recently in Ukraine. Might have been coal as well. Can't remember. Enough to go to war over. There is enough there for Ukraine (who already holds Russia by the balls for tranporting FF across its land) to undersell Russia. Russia is self-sufficient but it doesn't make much (unlike China say) to export. FF is a major thing for them to go to war over. I'm sure there are arguments against this, and don't listen to me coz I might have got some shit wrong. But China is a major Coal user -
China is home to the world’s second largest proven coal reserves after the United States, and prior to 2009, China was a net coal exporter. Coal is a cornerstone of the Chinese economy, representing 77 percent of China’s primary energy production and fueling almost 80 percent of its electricity. Moreover, China is the world’s top coal consumer, accounting for nearly half of global consumption in 2010.
Over the past decade, China’s domestic coal output has more than doubled while its coal imports have increased by a factor of 60—the country’s dependence on other nations’ coal exports is growing.2 In 2009, the global coal market witnessed a dramatic realignment as China burst onto the scene, importing coal from as far away as Colombia and the United States. With 182 million tons (Mt) of coal sourced from overseas suppliers in 2011, China has overtaken Japan as the world’s top coal importer.3Moreover, as the world’s top coal consumer, China’s imports could rise significantly again by 2015.4
Over the past decade, China’s domestic coal output has more than doubled while its coal imports have increased by a factor of 60—the country’s dependence on other nations’ coal exports is growing.2 In 2009, the global coal market witnessed a dramatic realignment as China burst onto the scene, importing coal from as far away as Colombia and the United States. With 182 million tons (Mt) of coal sourced from overseas suppliers in 2011, China has overtaken Japan as the world’s top coal importer.3Moreover, as the world’s top coal consumer, China’s imports could rise significantly again by 2015.4
but even they are having to import to keep up with demand. So Exports get less. China tends to export to countries that are closer to it, and that makes financial sense, because guess what? It takes FF and money to export it further. So no net gain, why bother?
If this shit seems counter-intuitive, it's because it is, unless you dig deep.
But yes, if you believe the facts and figures, both Russia and Ukraine export not just massive amounts of wheat/grain but also things like Sunflower Oil as well.
Wonder how much in the way of grain fields in Ukraine has been rendered at least temporarily unusable by this war.
Who can say with any accuracy, at least at the moment. The world is blaming Ukraine, or rather Russia on the dwindling FF supply. There is an energy crisis hitting the whole planet. Yeah, there's reserves left, but countries lie about them for certain reasons (Saudi Arabia looking at you). India as well has Coal problems. India really relies on coal to a massive extent. It's complex. Far more than one human can understand, or at least some bod on KF can mansplain.
India is the world's second-largest producer and consumer of coal. The fossil fuel keeps the country's lights on: three-quarters of the electricity produced uses coal. India sits atop the world's third-highest reserves of coal and boasts of the world's largest coal mining company but per person consumption is still modest.
But to have a go at answering your question:
Wonder how much in the way of grain fields in Ukraine has been rendered at least temporarily unusable by this war.
I would just say, a certain amount, a not insignificant amount, at a time of rising Global Fossil Fuel costs. Fossil fuels are needed for fertiliser and for transport of goods. Diesel is in short supply world wide. Shale only provides a certain amount of the hydrocarbon chain needed to make diesel come about. Certain countries are buying in from outside supply to make up the mix. So the price for tractors tilling the fields goes up as well. You might have heard about it if you didn't live in a bubble. Everyone will be hearing more about it as time goes on and the source of the problem becomes harder to hide.
The resulting grain/cooking oil shortages will be a real problem.
I agree.
Here in the USA, suggest we're looking at 20-25% rise in prices of certain foods as well as spot shortages by the end of the year. In the Middle East/parts of Africa could see widespread food shortages.
You may be a bit better off in the States. At least you haven't been hit by the worst of it so early on as compared to countries like Turkey (70 percent inflation) and Sri Lanka, comparable though I don't have the figures right now.
It will come soon enough though, as this Tsunami waves ripples over the whole planet. Disrupting supply chains, causing further hiccups to the complex system we all rely on for JIT supply.
And yes it will impact Africa/ME because they have traded Fossil fuels for food for a long time, but even they are being hit by the 'bug' (not talking covid). Nigerian Airways threatens to just shut down operations because of a fourfold increase in jet fuel. Nigeria may not be a massive player on the world stage, but they are a fairly substantial player when it comes to oil and FF. Enough for whole villages to be fucking genocided by their own people to make way for new fields. Where did that oil go? Did they sell it all? Why did an illegal oil refinery just blow up with the loss of a hundred lives or more. An illegal oil refinery, you ask? Yeah, amazing what humans can do when money is involved, either to eke out an existence or to profit like a King.
Fossil fuel shortages lead to food shortages. Food shortages lead to riots. Riots lead to war. War uses a lot of Fossil fuels to run a logistic supply chain. Rinse, repeat, for the last century or so, since that black gold came out the ground. And it's not difficult to see why this day was always gonna come.
Covid was both a dry run for population control and easing off on energy usage. It's a fact that by capita energy usage in the EU has been going down (or at least trending down) the last few years, even before Covid. If covid didn't exist, you would have to invent it.
It's very convenient. But it's not over yet. New super strains will come and we will be locked down again, all in the name of stopping spreading a disease, but in reality stopping people from consuming so much. Work from home? Yeah, that's a big one as well. The whole world is slowing down. You've probably noticed it yourself with any services you use not really being available as much any more. It gets worse from here.
This is supposedly influenced by Bill Gates:
In the face of the emerging global energy crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the IEA’s 10-Point Plan to Cut Oil Use proposes 10 actions that can be taken to reduce oil demand with immediate impact – and provides recommendations for how those actions can help pave the way to putting oil demand onto a more sustainable path in the longer term.
1. Reduce speed limits on highways by at least 10 km/h
2. Make public transport cheaper; incentivize walking and cycling
3. Car-free Sundays in large cities
4. Work from home up to three days a week where possible
5. Permit only half the private cars to operate in large cities, by odd/even system
6. Urge care sharing and practices the decrease fuel use
7. Promote efficient use of freight trucks and goods delivery
8. Prefer high-speed and night trains to planes where possible
9. Avoid business travel when alternatives exist
10. Hasten adoption of electric and more efficient vehicles
2. Make public transport cheaper; incentivize walking and cycling
3. Car-free Sundays in large cities
4. Work from home up to three days a week where possible
5. Permit only half the private cars to operate in large cities, by odd/even system
6. Urge care sharing and practices the decrease fuel use
7. Promote efficient use of freight trucks and goods delivery
8. Prefer high-speed and night trains to planes where possible
9. Avoid business travel when alternatives exist
10. Hasten adoption of electric and more efficient vehicles
There is only so much you can do. Only so much you can prep. Energy prices are set to rise again by a significant amount, whilst inflation gets ever worse. There will be no new normal. Things never go back to pre-pandemic wonderland levels. What a coincidence.
The pandemic did make things worse - the way it was handled - but that was intentional. It wasn't really the pandemic that did it, or rather the disease. It was the reaction, the cure that was way worse than the disease. But even that is a distraction.
As so is this stupid war in Ukraine.
These are the good days.
Congratulations, you won the lottery ticket of life if you are just about end of life now, because the greatest show on Planet Earth is coming to an end. All the trains are leaving the station. The stations become fewer and fewer, as do the trains, as do the people on them, eventually.
Electric cars may save us, and Nuclear Fusion may just be around the corner. Keep telling yourself that. In the mean time, no matter what country you reside in, two or three facts will become more apparent to you as the days go by:
1: Fossil Fuel energy gets more expensive. Gas in your car, Gas in your home.
2: Food gets more expensive. Everyone needs food. It's not discretionary. It doesn't get cheaper.
3: People will scramble for others to blame. Expect more social unrest, even among kinsfolk.
I'm really not sure if this war in Ukraine is about FF energy depletion and the fight for the last reserves or the fight for the market of the cheapest reserves. Fucked if I know.
I'm not even sure if it's about Nato expansion (though that is a pretty good bet).
But what I do know is, this very war came at a hell of a time for humanity. It doesn't help - it only hinders. But it is not the cause of all our woes which lie elsewhere.
But Putin and Russia will be blamed for it all of course.
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Based Boy
kiwifarms.net
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But how much of this equipment actually reaching anywhere where it can be effectively used? Sure, throwing old military surplus at the problem is not that big of a deal for America, but you have to remember that America also forced to spend real money on keeping Ukraine out of default, which is the biggest amount of assistance budget, if i understand it correctly. Not only that, but every semi to fully modern system you send will be at risk of being captured and reverse engineered ether by Russians or by Chinese.
If anything, Ukraine needs all types of fuel and anti-rocket systems, which US is not sending for now(if i did not missed that). There is also problems with training people to use new equipment and supplying enough ammunition for it to be effectively used.
Not only that, but you have to understand that Ukraine itself is a hotbed of Russian spies, especially in places such as Odessa, so any movement of western equipment is probably known about and it can be targeted by Russia without said equipment firing a shot. And Russia also have their own satellites, so they know where big shipment is coming in.
This is a prime example of equipment storage bombings from today in Odessa:
Not only that, but i don't understand how American equipment will be delivered from Lvov to Donbass, considering every train substation that lead to central Ukraine is ether damaged or destroyed by Russians. If you want to deliver it by trucks - that requires fuel, which Ukraine is short on. Also, if NATO countries will start supplying fuel in large quantities, it will drive price of fuel even higher, which in turn will increase Russian revenue from selling oil to Europe even higher.
It is also interesting to me how America will replenish their supply of Javelins that they send. Is it fully produced domestically or do they need to buy some parts or materials from non-aligned or covertly hostile countries(such as China)? I don't know much about how it is produced and about supply chain for it's production, so i would be grateful if you can explain this topic to me. If you know, of course.
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Why use the funding given to you to do your job when you can pocket the funding, half ass it, and then collect your salary too. This is how every corrupt beaurocracy functions.
This is also why Russias invasion is such a shit show. Apparently all of their wheeled equipment were using civilian grade Chinese tires and not the military grade stuff that was rated for the equipment and the combat requirements. Why? Well the Russian government gave those units money to buy military grade tires, and instead the officers bought chink shit and pocketed the difference.
And that is how a multi million dollar air defense unit ends up stuck in the mud and towed away by a Ukrainian farmer.
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- Jan 20, 2020
The dedicated Ukraine shilling coupled with identical posting styles and repeat phrases is pretty sus. Lots of videos of blurry objects blowing up with "hurr, russtards rekt" for one.
ColtWalker1847
kiwifarms.net
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- Dec 20, 2017
The FIM-92 Stinger has been out of production for a long time. The army is currently at a crossroads of extending their service life (again) or replacing them with a new system. The production issue they are bitching about is Raytheon creating a whole new line to produce them and troubles sourcing components for a 1980's out-of-production MANPAD. It's a Cold War bordering on obsolete system with an unsteady future ahead of it, homeskillet.
Coulda just went with Javelin and M777. But expendable ATGMs and 90 towed artillery pieces isn't much to put in the "we are fucked and unable to replenish war stores" handbasket. A rounding error in procurement as I mentioned earlier. Call me when they send billions of latest bleeding edge PAC-3, Paladin, and M1A2sepv3.
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A West that's pushing a cultural Marxist agenda along with evil and bordering-on Satanic activities across the globe. Perish the thought of it losing influence in this purely propaganda war being staged in conjunction between them and Putin anyway. The "West" died in 1918, and this war's a sham regardless of which side you support, which honestly should be neither side.
ColtWalker1847
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- Dec 20, 2017
I would stay away from repeating the tire stuff. It's been deboonked and guy who popularized it, Trent Telenko, has been identified as a clueless twitter sperg lolcow and has been embarrassing himself ever since. That CanadianUkrain1 guy is someone to avoid too. He has been found out to be a bullshit LARPer in Toronto who just regurgitates shit he found on Ukrainian Telegram channels. He won't drop the act even after being busted by the OSint community.
K-Hole
kiwifarms.net
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- Dec 21, 2019
I just had a quick look on the Asda site where I did my latest shop. You can still get Sunflower Oil, but not in the big 3L containers. You can get the smaller 1L containers.
Let's do some math:
I bought 3L a couple of weeks ago (I could have bought more but I bought a few other Liters of oil as well - it was all I needed - I don't use that much Sunflower Oil). It cost me £3.
Now they aren't available, I have to buy 3 x 1L of them. 1L of them is £1.30.
3 x £1.30 = £3.90.
I'll round that off as about a 25 percent increase in a matter of weeks (the last 2/3 weeks).
This always happens at the start. The big containers go as the supermarket sells them for less because of economy of scale. People prepping and people saving money (most people) buy them up. So only the more expensive smaller containers left which they gouge you on. They don't care if YOU buy, because SOMEONE ELSE SOMEWHERE will buy.
This hides inflation figures as well I'm sure. But the fact is, you can't get Sunflower Oil now unless you are prepared to pay a quarter more for it than it cost a few weeks ago. How long till hyperinflation? A quarter now, becomes a half later, that doubles, trebles...
Let's not get too hyperbolic and scaremongering. I bought just 3L knowing the price would go up. I could have bought 6L or 9L but there is only so much god damned Sunflower Oil I need when I have liters of Olive oil and Rape Seed oil.
Prices will come back down. But they won't go back to what they were. And the Camel's hump we are all about to have to go over? well...
There is only so much you can sell shit for. Olive oil was supposed to go through the roof and it did get more expensive, but even in my local co-op you could buy it for reasonable prices. Reasonable being the cost of a couple of beers. A fiver! Not everything is relative, but some things are.
Pretty soon you won't be able to get 1L bottles of Sunflower Oil, it will only be 0.5L. Then it will be a new scare, a new scarcity - it will be Rape Seed oil that is in short supply. Then everyone will panic buy that. Then that will go up in price. Until it becomes unavailable. And then the new panic buying item will make itself known...
In the meantime, Sunflower Oil comes back on shelves, so does Rape Seed...
And the cycle continues. The circle continues.
But only in ever decreasing circles. Because they will get harder to find, to make, to bring to market, to have transported to stores, to sell.
We are in the early stages now. People said that the wars in the Middle East were Oil Wars. They may have been right. Resource Wars might have been more accurate. Global powers think decades ahead and the future wars will not just be fought over oil but over water as well.
Whatever the fuck. I've reduced my oil usage. I cook dry now with a bit of butter in the pan and pour the good stuff on later as I need it. I'm not fucking deprived or starving.
But in our not too distant lifetime, anyone alive now will live to see the great famines about to come. And how we justify it to ourselves, well...
I hope I am wrong. Humanity has a way of righting itself. But sometimes not without a certain pain in the process.
ColtWalker1847
kiwifarms.net
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Gulaghomo is not a more desirable system than globohomo. You only have to look at the difference between the prosperity of Poland and the stagnation of Belarus to see an example of it.
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>prosperity of Poland
Poland gets by on gibs me dats from Western European states who like the US, are only economically viable due to currency manipulation. Germany has had an inverted yield curve for I think about a decade now and still somehow has a triple-A credit rating. It's like comparing Theranos to Bob's taco stand.
ColtWalker1847
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I don't care about some economic mumbo-jumbo. It is simple observation of which system works better for the general population of these countries that were both under the SU and split in opposite directions since. One to the west. The other to the east.
Now, is Poland doing better than Belarus? Yes or no.
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>I don't care about some economic mumbo-jumbo
This is a perfect example of why democracy is fundamentally flawed. It should not be beyond even a layman's understanding of economics to see how borrowing money at a net loss for the lender should not lead to you having a perfect credit score.
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I spit in it. It's Russian now. Checkmate.
ColtWalker1847
kiwifarms.net
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I understand it perfectly fine. What I don't get is how the EU Marshal Planning them out of their post-WP funk with generous loan rates is an impediment to their prosperity. It appears to be quite the opposite. Economic growth in Poland has been giving them a broader tax base to draw from and keeping their credit score up. It built their industry to drive their economy while also creating a middle-class of consumers to buy products imported from the Eurozone. This strengthened the EU as a whole because it was in nobody's interest to have a weak basketcase Poland. It is so simple a layman can understand it.
Belarus, on the other hand, had no such assistance. Instead it got more of the same autocratic top-down extractive economy as it's leaderships main goals are the security of the state and keeping the country staunchly in their benefactor Russia's camp. Who is allowed to be rich and powerful has everything to do with their loyalties and little to do with their business acumen. Where keeping the people unable to economically prosper makes them more reliant on the state and less likely to upset the status quo.
And, yes, I am aware that what I described does exist in the west to some extent. But it is way WAY worse over there. This is how their entire society operates. Why Arabs Lose Wars kinda shit.
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>Belarus, on the other hand, had no such assistance
And there you go. You've got two groups of people with basically the same circumstances. One is taking kickbacks from the mob and the other isn't.
>But it is way WAY worse over there
It's not "WAY" worse right now, though it is worse. Particular emphasis on the "right now" part. When the Weimar economy eventually collapsed, it was not the political class that had to whore their underaged daughters out to sex tourists in Berlin in order to put food on the table.
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