Global Depression 2022 - Time to do the Breadline Boogaloo!

Who is going to get hit the hardest?

  • North America

  • South America

  • Asia

  • Europe

  • Australia

  • Africa

  • The Middle East

  • Everyone's fucked

  • Nothing will happen


Results are only viewable after voting.
I'm old enough to remember the first time this occurred back with the dot-com bubble bursting. It was a fucking catastrophe and large amounts of companies just died overnight, huge amounts of websites that were popular just folded because they could not maintain themselves. Sites like SomethingAwful, Newgrounds or even 4chan had serious problems combating their own growth, ad revenue paid absolutely nothing and media heavy sites like 4chan and Newgrounds danced the razor wire, if I recall properly 4chan died twice before it finally secured enough money to accommodate bandwidth and hardware costs through some sort of donation drive and users donating hardware. KF has various problems with funding as is, a global downturn may end up killing this site.
Back during the dotcom bust, which lasted from 2000 to 2002, many websites were hosted by racks of expensive, overpriced Sun servers when compared to useful commodity hardware like Intel Pentiums running apache. 4chan didn't really come around to 2003, so it was after the last of the dotcom bust ended.

The crash that followed saw the Nasdaq index, which rose five-fold between 1995 and 2000, tumble from a peak of 5,048.62 on March 10, 2000, to 1,139.90 on Oct. 4, 2002, a 76.81% fall.


4chan is an anonymous English-language imageboard website. Launched by Christopher "moot" Poole in October 2003,

I don't think we will personally see another dotcom bubble where unprofitable companies with no chance of profitability and a small userbase were propped up as tech ponzi schemes to deep pocketed silents and boomers acquisitions like Mark Cuban's broadcast.com sale to Yahoo

This real life fairy tale began with the formation of Audionet.com in 1995 (the predecessor of Broadcast.com); it continued with the record-setting IPO of Broadcast.com in 1998 and culminated in 1999 when Yahoo assimilated Broadcast.com in a deal which was valued at $5.7 billion.


Back then people ran large desktop computers with large and very heavy CRT monitors. The userbase was comparatively small. These days, there are billions of portable computers that fit in people's pockets which can be allow tech reach all across the world simultaneously. There may be a shrinking of the tech industry, and a worldwide fracturing of the global internet into regional or national internets, but that would allow a market for more tech workers to implement work arounds and city wide mesh networks.
 
Pardon the optimism, but this is also why a full-ride tech bro can’t necessarily compete in boring ordinary tech jobs even on a discount. These large highly leveraged tech corps have deeply specific job titles that don’t really make sense in a smaller organization, plus generally job titles that just don’t make any sense due to the organisation not really knowing what it’s doing when it’s growing so fast. This is not a recipe for developing highly sought after workers.
Look at it this way: let's say the job market has 1000 jobs and they're all filled. 50 out of those 1000 are highly-skilled workers and the remaining 950 are useless (an optimistic estimate, believe me). Once all the zombie corps are dead, the market is left with 20 jobs out of the original 1000. So now the useless workers are just straight-up out of a job, and the 50 highly-skilled workers are now at each others throats for those remaining 20 jobs.

This is the sort of apocalyptic scenario the tech industry is facing right now. And nobody in the industry sees it coming.
 
Look at it this way: let's say the job market has 1000 jobs and they're all filled. 50 out of those 1000 are highly-skilled workers and the remaining 950 are useless (an optimistic estimate, believe me). Once all the zombie corps are dead, the market is left with 20 jobs out of the original 1000. So now the useless workers are just straight-up out of a job, and the 50 highly-skilled workers are now at each others throats for those remaining 20 jobs.

This is the sort of apocalyptic scenario the tech industry is facing right now. And nobody in the industry sees it coming.
The really fun part is that those useless "administration and PR" roles tend to be 99% women, troons, and illiterate fat black women.

We're about to see lots of reeeeeeeeeeeeeeee.
 
Seeing reports that Ukraine have allegedly cut off russian gas flows to europe lmao

I wonder if this was sanctioned by the EU or if the Ukrainians got so high on their own propaganda that they think they can blackmail Europe. If it's the latter wonder how the euros will react.

Things are going from bad to worse, I'm going to keep slowly buying non perishable foods. Stay safe and be prepared frens.

E: partial shut off apparently of a pipeline responsible for 1/3 of the flow to europe
 
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Back during the dotcom bust, which lasted from 2000 to 2002, many websites were hosted by racks of expensive, overpriced Sun servers when compared to useful commodity hardware like Intel Pentiums running apache. 4chan didn't really come around to 2003, so it was after the last of the dotcom bust ended.
You're talking a technical recession. Ad revenue on the internet was very weak for nearly a decade or more, if we want to talk centralization of the internet into the current mega-sites; the vast reduction of internet ad revenue being responsible for all of the mom-and-pop style websites dying off would be a good starting point. 4chan launched after the technical recession ended for the dot-com bubble but the ramifications endured until nearly 2011 when there seemed to be a new spurt of growth on the internet, that ad revenue lasted until 2018, whenever PewdiePie had his bridge encounter, suddenly companies realized that most internet sites weren't paragons of purity and the revenue dried up again.
 
Look at it this way: let's say the job market has 1000 jobs and they're all filled. 50 out of those 1000 are highly-skilled workers and the remaining 950 are useless (an optimistic estimate, believe me). Once all the zombie corps are dead, the market is left with 20 jobs out of the original 1000. So now the useless workers are just straight-up out of a job, and the 50 highly-skilled workers are now at each others throats for those remaining 20 jobs.

This is the sort of apocalyptic scenario the tech industry is facing right now. And nobody in the industry sees it coming.
The more realistic view of the tech job market is that there’s 1000 jobs that are filled, with 50 of them those magic unicorn 🦄 workers and 950 are useless.

However, there are 50 more magic unicorn worker slots desperately waiting to be filled elsewhere in the market but there’s just not enough unicorn dust to go around. They are paying generously too, but not flush-with-literally-free-vc-cash tech startup generously. Think basic companies doing “boring” shit like industrial software or accounting. They have good bones and they’re needed as long as industrial society exists, because everything runs on computers. And we need more elaborate computers to wrangle the other computers. It’s computers all the way down.

Bash and stake the zombie corpos down, freeing up 45 unicorns to now roam for new pastures. There’s still demand for more.

The tech industry can contract quite a bit before the supply and demand for the unicorns is anywhere near balanced. Everyone below that unicorn level get super fucked though.
 
Look at it this way: let's say the job market has 1000 jobs and they're all filled. 50 out of those 1000 are highly-skilled workers and the remaining 950 are useless (an optimistic estimate, believe me). Once all the zombie corps are dead, the market is left with 20 jobs out of the original 1000. So now the useless workers are just straight-up out of a job, and the 50 highly-skilled workers are now at each others throats for those remaining 20 jobs.

This is the sort of apocalyptic scenario the tech industry is facing right now. And nobody in the industry sees it coming.
On the plus side, H1Bs, Indian and Chinese tech workers are the first out the fucking door. Having a team dedicated to fixing the fuckups that the streetshitter and chinaman outsourcers make is no longer going to make economic sense. (There will be a short period where they try to maximize this relationship before it collapses, however.)
 
On the plus side, H1Bs, Indian and Chinese tech workers are the first out the fucking door. Having a team dedicated to fixing the fuckups that the streetshitter and chinaman outsourcers make is no longer going to make economic sense. (There will be a short period where they try to maximize this relationship before it collapses, however.)
I actually disagree, and this is a point that I neglected to make previously.

These tech companies have spent the last two years dragging their orgs kicking and screaming into the remote work era. Tech workers celebrated as they sat in their pajamas watching TV and used apps on their computers to jiggle their mouse cursor to appear online in Slack. I know I did. But the dark side of all these companies being set up for fully remote employees is that now they can plug in workers from anywhere and have them up and running on the company infrastructure ready to work quickly. In a time of financial crisis, bloated developer budgets are the first to go. I expect another wave of offshoring to hit soon and it's another big factor that is going to decimate the tech industry.
 
You're talking a technical recession. Ad revenue on the internet was very weak for nearly a decade or more, if we want to talk centralization of the internet into the current mega-sites; the vast reduction of internet ad revenue being responsible for all of the mom-and-pop style websites dying off would be a good starting point. 4chan launched after the technical recession ended for the dot-com bubble but the ramifications endured until nearly 2011 when there seemed to be a new spurt of growth on the internet, that ad revenue lasted until 2018, whenever PewdiePie had his bridge encounter, suddenly companies realized that most internet sites weren't paragons of purity and the revenue dried up again.

The dotcom bust was officially over when Google went IPO in 2004.

August 18, 2017 6:00 AM CDT
...its initial public offering on August 19, 2004 was a mistake. According to Buffett, Google’s founders approached Berkshire with a investment prospectus, but, he admitted, “I blew it.”

In retrospect, Google would have been a winning investment. When it first hit the stock market in 2004, the search engine was worth less than toothpaste-maker Colgate-Palmolive, at about $27 billion at the close of trading that day. Today, it’s the second largest company of the S&P 500 Index with a market value of about $648 billion. And its early investors rose right alongside it.


Google has since gained almost 900 billion in market cap from 2017-2022. Or to put it another way, the value of a search engine and advertising company has almost tripled in value in 5 years. If the lockdowns and quarantines end everywhere finally and for good, advertising revenues will collapse and we will see a bust cycle start.

As of May 2022 Alphabet (Google) has a market cap of $1.505 Trillion. This makes Alphabet (Google) the world's 4th most valuable company by market cap according to our data. The market capitalization, commonly called market cap, is the total market value of a publicly traded company's outstanding shares and is commonly used to mesure[sic] how much a company is worth.


Unless we are not in a bubble. But if we are in a bubble and it bursts, it doesn't really take more than 3 years to get over. However, our problems are compounded by high inflation and a globally distributed work force which may have to tunnel from a foreign Internet to the American Internet if this war in the Ukraine spirals out of control with the Western Powers having declared unofficial War with Russia. If that happens with a Hindi and Chinx workforce, we might start seeing Bollywood television shows dubbed in American English or African American Vernacular.

That's my 2022-9 prediction.
 
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I actually disagree, and this is a point that I neglected to make previously.

These tech companies have spent the last two years dragging their orgs kicking and screaming into the remote work era. Tech workers celebrated as they sat in their pajamas watching TV and used apps on their computers to jiggle their mouse cursor to appear online in Slack. I know I did. But the dark side of all these companies being set up for fully remote employees is that now they can plug in workers from anywhere and have them up and running on the company infrastructure ready to work quickly. In a time of financial crisis, bloated developer budgets are the first to go. I expect another wave of offshoring to hit soon and it's another big factor that is going to decimate the tech industry.
I don’t think you understand just how terrible Chinese Tech is.
 
I don’t think you understand just how terrible Chinese Tech is.
Or Indian tech workers.

I'm sure some are good. But on average, they're functionally fucking retarded. They check in whenever they want -- had a user who couldn't get logged in because they didn't know their username and password. It was 3 weeks into their job. As far as we can tell, they're just sharing usernames and passwords amongst their outsourcing company. Ask one of them a troubleshooting question? 2 weeks later they'll come back to tell you their shit is still broken . You know, the shit they need to do their job? Don't worry tho, the paychecks kept coming so whatever. Why would a software developer need a working PC?

Their work is first year college student tier passable. Absolute gibberish. If your requirements are more complex than "Do X" they'll completely shut down and do X anyway. If you want to add something later, expect 3-4 weeks for each change, even if it's something minor. Error messages? For lesser human beings. Critical thinking? What's that? Does it go well with curry?

And none of that is getting into the weird class structure they have over there. I get they have their version of the Jews and their version of I'm guessing the Gypsies(?), they're all streetshitters to me. Some of them, the tard-wranglers, sure do have inflated opinions of themselves, tho.

But yeah, Hippo's probably right and they'll be happily using the remote worker shift to move us to massive outsourcing. But I maintain that they simply won't be able to do the work without Americans cleaning up after them. And after that secondary collapse I predicted above. The companies can afford the luxury of cheap Indian workers right now. When that dries up, they'll desperately try and find cheap Americans. At least Americans can be spoken to and are culturally close enough to the bosses that they will respond well to threats and other coercion.

(Meanwhile, in one of my clients, they simply moved an entire callcenter worth of Indians and Chinese people over to two sites. We get calls all the time from two sites that are ostensibly in the US but every time they call it sounds like a mix between a kindergarten and a restaurant and they barely, BARELY, speak English.)
 
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I don’t think you understand just how terrible Chinese Tech is.
Or Indian tech workers.
Absolutely correct. Even the apparently competent ones are fucking retarded in my experience. (No Professor Chong, you can't just mash a couple of neural networks together to shit out yet another machine learning paper and expect people to think you're a good researcher. And no Kumar, I don't trust that you set up our backend server correctly, and I don't care how many StackOverflow posts you pilfered to frankenstein together a Dockerfile that you think works when you still can't even explain in your own words what a container even is.)

Part of me really hopes this shit gets bad enough that all pretense of equality ("there's no such thing as a bad culture or a worthless people, bigot!") is just abandoned overnight. Pretending that you can replace significant parts of your business infrastructure with useless streetshitters and bugmen without things breaking is something that only happens when you're existing in a budget surplus fantasy world. And I really hope that the second that's no longer true for many of these software/cloud/IT outfits, that they'll finally re-learn their lesson for good for at least the next decade or two.
 
I'm already seeing this happening, with a large essential company pushing for remote work. Problem is, the American hires don't show up to work and don't do their job. The newest hires-to-be straight up don't report on their first day. I know this is probably a case of the employee getting a call back on an application for a better place, but a courtesy call would be nice. Waiting for an American to fill the job is still better than outsourcing to India.
 
But the dark side of all these companies being set up for fully remote employees is that now they can plug in workers from anywhere and have them up and running on the company infrastructure ready to work quickly
As an Eastern European techbro (sadly not a unicorn) I can tell you this is absolutely happening. I work for a globehomo tech company on an American project, and besides the leadership everyone on my project is from around the bloc, nobody I know works on a project that's originated in Eastern Europe, our closest clients are the Germans.

I found it weird how when I was hired last summer during the covid lockdowns they would hire 30-40 people per month and brag about this growth, never mind the fact that for the first couple of months I, and probably everyone else alongside me, was doing absolutely nothing because "projects don't start during the summer". It's very likely that the powers that be are preparing to offload a lot of their work to cheapskates like us and they need the manpower. I make an okay middle class income which is nothing compared to American wages, hell even our top level seniors never make it to a "six figure income."
 
And none of that is getting into the weird class structure they have over there. I get they have their version of the Jews and their version of I'm guessing the Gypsies(?), they're all streetshitters to me. Some of them, the tard-wranglers, sure do have inflated opinions of themselves, tho.
India has over 100 million "untouchables". You'll never hear about it because Indians are inherently nationalistic and deeply ashamed of their culture -- remember that time they were utterly and completely dominated by a small island nation of dandy fops drinking tea and making the world's worst cuisine? We only import their priestly caste of course, who aren't actually interested in equality and spend their lives working towards the Indian Dream of driving a BMW and ensuring that their children are one day successful enough to drive a BMW.

Their innate racism would make the most backwater KKK card carrying cracker blush. They'll of course chime in decrying the evils of white America while having an actual, honest-to-God REAL culture of discriminating based on cultural background and skin color.

Jesus, even Wikipedia couldn't find a way to cover this up:
According to the 2014 NCAER/University of Maryland survey, 27 per cent of the Indian population still practices untouchability; the figure may be higher because many people refuse to acknowledge doing so when questioned, although the methodology of the survey was also criticised for potentially inflating the figure
Imagine importing millions and millions of people who believe in that shit while simultaneously screaming about how Americans are inherently racist.

Sorry, complete diversion there.
 
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