Russian Invasion of Ukraine Megathread

[Hell on Earth]

Russia tried to seize a city of several million people by cramming an entire army group down a two lane road from a little used border checkpoint. Of course they would have tried to zerg rush over the one part of the little Dneiper they managed to bridge. it would have worked too, were it not for the fact that they still don't have air superiority. The Ukrainian Air Force is still flying fighter jets, never mind the drones. With the Arrival of the American M777's, its even worse. Ukraine's artillery now outranges the Russians. its why you are getting videos of artillery shells slamming into Russian Artillery and Villages. The US 155MM howitzer is no fucking joke. A trained monkey can land hundreds of pounds of high explosive with pin point accuracy using basic Newtonian math with those things.

I said at the start, Russia had a time limit here. Time ran out awhile ago. It boggles my mind that Putin still has not gone to the Russian people and told them his special military operation is now a full on war, and they will have to bear every burden to see it through. Russia is not going to win this by half measures.

Yeah, the Ukries have like 5 M777's and a couple of trained guys there right now, let me know when they have more than 500-1000 deployed.

You've really hyped this weapon as a "superweapon" when you forget that they have like 90 of them right now and most of them are stored in western Ukraine, lol.

 

[kuuu]

I posted some of these in the other thread, unless the site crashed before the videos were posted. I’d take it with a grain of salt since the videos could be curated and the channel is pro-Ukraine but I hope future historians have access to phone calls like these on both sides. It’s interesting to see the perspective of some of the individuals involved, assuming the translations are accurate.

Description
The main purpose of this channel is to give people around the globe an opportunity to get a peek on what's actually going on in Ukraine, Russia and Belarus. I'm not a propagandist of any kind. I'm just trying to get the idea of why people from neigboring country do such things to my nation I'm sure in the future the content of this channel will be much more bright and positive, but it won't be so while Ukrainians are suffering from the Russian invasion. BTW, in order to survive in this war, I, as an Ukrainian, have to embed small ads under my videos. Also I have to add my PayPal everywhere and ask for donations - rapdraga1@gmail.com Since for now it's the only way I'm actually getting paid for work I'm doing. Feeling a little dumb for doing this, but I just don't want to use Patreon due to its recent blockings of pro-Ukrainians campaigns! Also please be aware that as an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases to make my ends meet.

Joined Dec 22, 2021

hmm..

 

[Smity Werbenjagermanjensen]

Did they have to blur soldiers so nobody finds out that they are not ukrainians operating it?

Extremely doubtful and a bit copey for multiple reasons, one is that said artillery arrived pretty recently, so the mere prospect of the Russians already capturing and manning one is unlikely at this time, secondly it would have been called out as fake because they would have to get the OG footage from an almost certainly Pro-Russian source, and said OG footage would be spread around debunking the new footage.

The most likely prospect IMO is that the whole area was pixelated so bad to make it impossible geolocating where this artillery piece is, or at least make it extremely difficult compared to an unpixellated version.

 

[Ponzo]

Extremely doubtful and a bit copey for multiple reasons, one is that said artillery arrived pretty recently, so the mere prospect of the Russians already capturing and manning one is unlikely at this time, secondly it would have been called out as fake because they would have to get the OG footage from an almost certainly Pro-Russian source, and said OG footage would be spread around debunking the new footage.

The most likely prospect IMO is that the whole area was pixelated so bad to make it impossible geolocating where this artillery piece is, or at least make it extremely difficult compared to an unpixellated version.

Im not talking about Russians, im talking about NATO cucks operating it for the Ukes

 

[Based Boy]

Russia tried to seize a city of several million people by cramming an entire army group down a two lane road from a little used border checkpoint. Of course they would have tried to zerg rush over the one part of the little Dneiper they managed to bridge. it would have worked too, were it not for the fact that they still don't have air superiority. The Ukrainian Air Force is still flying fighter jets, never mind the drones. With the Arrival of the American M577's, its even worse. Ukraine's artillery now outranges the Russians. its why you are getting videos of artillery shells slamming into Russian Artillery and Villages. The US 155MM howitzer is no fucking joke.

I said at the start, Russia was had a time limit here. Time ran out awhile ago. It boggles my mind that Putin still has not gone to the Russian people and told them his special military operation is now a full on war, and they will have to bear every burden to see it through. Russia is not going to win this by half measures.

Eh, i always thought that move on Kiew was a simple Russian gambit. Surrender now or else. But of course, as with any gambit, if your moves are seen through, you lose. It boggled my mind why did they decided to retreat from there, considering what propaganda lose that is, but then it was revealed that they had only 200k troops on all fronts combined, which made such a move more understandable. You also have to consider that Kiev is very important city for east Slavs, so carelessly bombing it would provoke very negative reaction form Russian populace, which was not that bloodthirsty at the beginning of the war, so simply leveling Kiev to the ground was and probably still is a no-no.
Don't know about out ranging, considering Russian Malka has effective range from 37,5km to 47,5km and for longer shots missiles are used. Also there is little Ukraine can do about strategic aviation, though Russia did not use it very much, admittedly.
I don't know who thought of shooting at Russian villages without any military targets is a good move, but it is not. Probably some kind of insubordination.
How much Russia have in terms of time, i don't know. Depends on what kind of equipment and how much of it West is going to send in the future and what real loses are. Also depends on what kind of measures Russia itself is willing to enact. There is still plenty of manpower and equipment they can throw at Ukraine, if there is political will to do so, of course. Don't know who will kneel under economic pressure first either, West or Russia.

 

[Cool Dog]

Owning putin by exterminating ukrainian children, very stunning and brave adolf

This fucking faggot got taken for a ride, any hoe can call him for free money

 

[Smity Werbenjagermanjensen]

Eh, i always thought that move on Kiew was a simple Russian gambit. Surrender now or else. But of course, as with any gambit, if your moves are seen through, you lose. It boggled my mind why did they decided to retreat from there, considering what propaganda lose that is, but then it was revealed that they had only 200k troops on all fronts combined, which made such a move more understandable. You also have to consider that Kiev is very important city for east Slavs, so carelessly bombing it would provoke very negative reaction form Russian populace, which was not that bloodthirsty at the beginning of the war, so simply leveling Kiev to the ground was and probably still is a no-no.
Don't know about out ranging, considering Russian Malka has effective range from 37,5km to 47,5km and for longer shots missiles are used. Also there is little Ukraine can do about strategic aviation, though Russia did not use it very much, admittedly.
I don't know who thought of shooting at Russian villages without any military targets is a good move, but it is not. Probably some kind of insubordination.
How much Russia have in terms of time, i don't know. Depends on what kind of equipment and how much of it West is going to send in the future and what real loses are. Also depends on what kind of measures Russia itself is willing to enact. There is still plenty of manpower and equipment they can throw at Ukraine, if there is political will to do so, of course. Don't know who will kneel under economic pressure first either, West or Russia.

With the 40 Billion dollars in military aid from the US that will be sent to Ukraine and also to US defense companies Ukraine got a big help and the US can afford it, sure that's a lot of money, but it's actually just over 5 percent of what the US Military's annual budget is. Which is why I don't get people acting like this will put the US military in a really bad position. Once/if Donbass is captured by the Russians, Putin will declare victory, leave a peacekeeping force in Kherson and Donbass regions, and it will basically turn into what the Donbass War was during 2015-2021, a stalemate where both sides occasionally shell one another and shake their fists at each other most of the time.

 

[mindlessobserver]

With the 40 Billion dollars in military aid from the US that will be sent to Ukraine and also to US defense companies Ukraine got a big help and the US can afford it, sure that's a lot of money, but it's actually just over 5 percent of what the US Military's annual budget is. Which is why I don't get people acting like this will put the US military in a really bad position. Once/if Donbass is captured by the Russians, Putin will declare victory, leave a peacekeeping force in Kherson and Donbass regions, and it will basically turn into what the Donbass War was during 2015-2021, a stalemate where both sides occasionally shell one another and shake their fists at each other most of the time.

That is not how this works. Russia can call this a special military operation all day, if it wants. But what it actually is, is a war. And wars don't end unilaterally. Especially when you are fighting against a peer power. Ukraine, supported by Billions in NATO weapons and economic assistance is a peer power to Russia. Russia doesn't get to declare victory unilaterally this time. This is not Georgia in 2004, or Ukraine in 2014. Putin has bungled his country into an honest to god war. A war where a Russian city with a population of 350,000 is now in range of enemy guns.

If he even tried to pull back and leave a "peacekeeping" force, they would get wrecked immediately. What good is a peacekeeping force when the other side is perfectly happy to lob high explosive ordinance into their positions? What peace is there to keep? Putin either needs to figure out how to bring Ukraine to the table by force, or start offering concessions. Barring that, he needs to commit as many Russian lives as necessary to the furnace in order to try and change the on the ground situation. Because right now Ukraine has no interest in a negotiated settlement. The word out of Kiev atm is they think they can settle their issues with Russia by force, and impose a peace on their terms.

 

[mindlessobserver]

Fighting through the DDoS, BBC news on the Kharkiv front inadvertently filmed one of Elon Musks "Starlink" Sattelite communicators. Ukraine is actually using those fuckers on the front line.

 

[Feline Supremacist]

That is not how this works. Russia can call this a special military operation all day, if it wants. But what it actually is, is a war. And wars don't end unilaterally. Especially when you are fighting against a peer power.

I'll take what is The Korean War for 200 Alex.

Ukraine, supported by Billions in NATO weapons and economic assistance is a peer power to Russia. Russia doesn't get to declare victory unilaterally this time. This is not Georgia in 2004, or Ukraine in 2014. Putin has bungled his country into an honest to god war. A war where a Russian city with a population of 350,000 is now in range of enemy guns.

The war began on 25 June 1950 when North Korea invaded South Korea following clashes along the border and rebellions in South Korea. North Korea was supported by China and the Soviet Union while South Korea was supported by the United Nations, principally the United States. The fighting ended with an armistice on 27 July 1953.

If he even tried to pull back and leave a "peacekeeping" force, they would get wrecked immediately. What good is a peacekeeping force when the other side is perfectly happy to lob high explosive ordinance into their positions? What peace is there to keep? Putin either needs to figure out how to bring Ukraine to the table by force, or start offering concessions. Barring that, he needs to commit as many Russian lives as necessary to the furnace in order to try and change the on the ground situation. Because right now Ukraine has no interest in a negotiated settlement. The word out of Kiev atm is they think they can settle their issues with Russia by force, and impose a peace on their terms.

Division of Korea (1954–present): Since the armistice, there have been numerous incursions and acts of aggression by North Korea. From 1966 to 1969, a large number of cross-border incursions took place in what has been referred to as the Korean DMZ Conflict or the Second Korean War. In 1968, a North Korean commando team unsuccessfully attempted to assassinate South Korean president Park Chung-hee in the Blue House Raid. In 1976, the axe murder incident was widely publicized. Since 1974, four incursion tunnels leading to Seoul have been uncovered. In 2010, a North Korean submarine torpedoed and sank the South Korean corvette ROKS Cheonan, resulting in the deaths of 46 sailors.[307] Again in 2010, North Korea fired artillery shells on Yeonpyeong island, killing two military personnel and two civilians.

Source:Wikipedo

Dude, please stop with your Reddit tier babby's first foray into international conflicts. I know the Western media is running on high octane and trying to convince everyone this is akin to Operation Barbarossa and boomer TV is running ads from a shady Christians for Jews outfit to squeeze scam money for the 6 gorillion from the gullible and impressionable with emotional and manipulative content but you should know better. After the claims Afghanistan was to liberate wahmen from the burka. OBL Al Qaeda the Taliban and Iraq was revenge for babbys in incubators to bring Saddam to justice gassed Kurds WMD oppressed Shias ISIS Iran peace in the Middle East you should know better.

 

[mindlessobserver]

I'll take what is The Korean War for 200 Alex.

The war began on 25 June 1950 when North Korea invaded South Korea following clashes along the border and rebellions in South Korea. North Korea was supported by China and the Soviet Union while South Korea was supported by the United Nations, principally the United States. The fighting ended with an armistice on 27 July 1953.

Division of Korea (1954–present): Since the armistice, there have been numerous incursions and acts of aggression by North Korea. From 1966 to 1969, a large number of cross-border incursions took place in what has been referred to as the Korean DMZ Conflict or the Second Korean War. In 1968, a North Korean commando team unsuccessfully attempted to assassinate South Korean president Park Chung-hee in the Blue House Raid. In 1976, the axe murder incident was widely publicized. Since 1974, four incursion tunnels leading to Seoul have been uncovered. In 2010, a North Korean submarine torpedoed and sank the South Korean corvette ROKS Cheonan, resulting in the deaths of 46 sailors.[307] Again in 2010, North Korea fired artillery shells on Yeonpyeong island, killing two military personnel and two civilians.

Source:Wikipedo

Dude, please stop with your Reddit tier babby's first foray into international conflicts. I know the Western media is running on high octane and trying to convince everyone this is akin to Operation Barbarossa and boomer TV is running ads from a shady Christians for Jews outfit to squeeze scam money for the 6 gorillion from the gullible and impressionable with emotional and manipulative content but you should know better. After the claims Afghanistan was to liberate wahmen from the burka. OBL Al Qaeda the Taliban and Iraq was revenge for babbys in incubators to bring Saddam to justice gassed Kurds WMD oppressed Shias ISIS Iran peace in the Middle East you should know better.

The korean war took 3 years and 2 million casualties to resolve. I don't know if that is the precedent you truly want to hang your hat on.

 

[Getting tard comed]

I'm late for my gloating session! It's two, that's right, 2. I repeat, TWO days after the last and final prediction of Russia running out of food, fuel, ammo, and men. It's May 11th, the Russians have now run out of all of those things 4 times! The war is over and evil Russia has lost! AGAIN!!!!

So... now that that's over, what's happening? I glance through this and see rumblings of a Ukrainian counter attack, but (x) to doubt. Also, I'm aware America has joined the war via this lend lease. Based on WW2 America will drop the facade and fight with their own troops out in the open in 8-12 months. Also, Russia has lost another important ship? Any thing I missed?

 

[Feline Supremacist]

The korean war took 3 years and 2 million casualties to resolve. I don't know if that is the precedent you truly want to hang your hat on.

My point is it is not yet resolved, the war has not ended. We have a truce, an armistice. That's why we have US military bases and soldiers all over South Korea.

It's like you makes posts about subjects you have little to no understanding about.

 

[mindlessobserver]

My point is it is not yet resolved, the war has not ended. We have a truce, an armistice. That's why we have US military bases and soldiers all over South Korea.

It's like you makes posts about subjects you have little to no understanding about.

Please make me understand then. Explain how Russia can bring Ukraine to an armistice?

 

[Feline Supremacist]

Please make me understand then. Explain how Russia can bring Ukraine to an armistice?

I am responding to your points, which were as follows:

That is not how this works. Russia can call this a special military operation all day, if it wants. But what it actually is, is a war. And wars don't end unilaterally.

Wars can end in any number of ways. I gave the Korean War as an example of a war that has called a truce, but you can look all over Africa where low scale conflict has been going on for decades. Turkey is about to get enmeshed in a conflict in Armenia.

Especially when you are fighting against a peer power. Ukraine, supported by Billions in NATO weapons and economic assistance is a peer power to Russia.

It's the USA. It's us. Without the US NATO is garbage. We're the ones pushing for conflict and financing it, to the point our politicians and President are ignoring very real issues at home

Russia doesn't get to declare victory unilaterally this time. This is not Georgia in 2004, or Ukraine in 2014.

If Russia can, it will. and no one is claiming this is Georgia; however, it is a continuation and aftermath of 2014 in Ukraine.

If he even tried to pull back and leave a "peacekeeping" force, they would get wrecked immediately. What good is a peacekeeping force when the other side is perfectly happy to lob high explosive ordinance into their positions? What peace is there to keep?

It would be exactly what someone posted, a new border with troops on it, which will erupt into low scale engagements periodically.

Because right now Ukraine has no interest in a negotiated settlement. The word out of Kiev atm is they think they can settle their issues with Russia by force, and impose a peace on their terms.

That's the word from DC and when the time comes (and it will come) when this constant flow of US taxpayer money is shut off and the arms shipments stop, then Ukraine will agree to a ceasefire and starts to negotiate. Or they just get rolled over.

I mean this is obvious to a first year pol sci major at third tier college.

 

[Smity Werbenjagermanjensen]

So... now that that's over, what's happening? I glance through this and see rumblings of a Ukrainian counter attack, but (x) to doubt. Also, I'm aware America has joined the war via this lend lease. Based on WW2 America will drop the facade and fight with their own troops out in the open in 8-12 months. Also, Russia has lost another important ship? Any thing I missed?

Russians have been confirmed to be pulling back/being pushed back to the Russian borders north of Kharkiv for the past couple days, meaning that battle is likely to soon to be over which is that counterattack you talked about. The second Russian warship being sunk turned out to be fake news, Donbass front is getting slow but steady Russian advances, Kherson-Mykolaiv front still a total stalemate.

 

[mindlessobserver]

I am responding to your points, which were as follows:


Wars can end in any number of ways. I gave the Korean War as an example of a war that has called a truce, but you can look all over Africa where low scale conflict has been going on for decades. Turkey is about to get enmeshed in a conflict in Armenia.

The fights between post soviet States like Armenia and Azerbaijan, or the internal African tribal conflicts are not the same types of conflicts as what we have here. Invariably these were civil conflicts, not State on State warfare. Even the great African war was largely an expression of the internal conflict within Zaire and the various border states picking sides within it. In none of these scenarios did you have a situation where the legislature of one state authorized war (sorry, special military operations) against another, and have its declaration reciprocated in kind. Further more, none of these examples involve a State backed Army, invading directly with its own forces on the order of its legislature the territory of another State backed army, who, both flying their national flags, engage in conventional warfare with each other.

It's the USA. It's us. Without the US NATO is garbage. We're the ones pushing for conflict and financing it, to the point our politicians and President are ignoring very real issues at home

Now this is not true at all. Without a doubt the USA is the most powerful NATO Member, and the Compass club is definitely designed with this in mind. But to claim that if the USA were to go poof the rest of NATO would suddenly not be a problem for Russia is a big mistake. If anything, the USA is a moderating force. Without America sitting on the Europeans there would be nobody holding them back from settling old scores with the Russians. And its not like Russia is in a position to stop that score setting. Even without the USA, the NATO aligned militaries have 5 times the active military component, triple the population, and a massive technological and economic edge. With the ascession of Sweden and Finland, NATO is literally within a 12 hours drive of a good 40% of Russia's entire population. Even nukes are not a true deterrant, considering the UK and France have the capability of killing 3/4ths of the Russian population in a day if Russia decided to go nuclear.

If Russia can, it will. and no one is claiming this is Georgia; however, it is a continuation and aftermath of 2014 in Ukraine.

Sure, its the aftermath of 2014. But its a very different war. Russia walked into Ukraine in 2014 while it was in Chaos from the Euromaidan and didn't have a military. That was 8 years ago, and Ukraine has clearly taken the lessons of it too heart. They've spent the last 8 years training their Army to fight Russia, and it shows.

It would be exactly what someone posted, a new border with troops on it, which will erupt into low scale engagements periodically.

How precisely do you propose deescalating this war to a low level that "border troops" would even be a thing? Right now, "Border troops" would just be a big neon sign that says "Counter attack here". What exactly is Russia offering to Ukraine right now that will convince them to not drop as much high explosives ordinance on those Russian border guards as they can, sweep in, cut off the heads from the corpses, wrap those heads in the tattered Russian flags ripped from the border posts, and then fire both head and flag at their retreating comrades from a tank?

You CANNOT unilaterally end a war. Especially a war like this. if Russia even tried, they would have to explain to their people why hundreds of bodies are being sent home in boxes from their peacekeeping, totally not a war.

That's the word from DC and when the time comes (and it will come) when this constant flow of US taxpayer money is shut off and the arms shipments stop, then Ukraine will agree to a ceasefire and starts to negotiate. Or they just get rolled over.

If the US money stops, its because we've stopped sitting on Europe. In which case god help us all because Poland, Finland and the Baltics will get involved directly. Russia has used up ALL its good will at this point. None of the countries west of the Dneiper trust them, and will get involved the moment it seems things on the front are wavering.

I mean this is obvious to a first year pol sci major at third tier college.

Without exception every first year and senior pol sci major I met was a fucking retard. Their discipline is also as retarded as they are, and if you are identifying with those mouth breathers, or god help you, are one of them, then you too are retarded.

 

[Fougaro]

I recently watched a stream made by a foreign fighter, but this time by one who took the Russian side. The Serb Dejan Berić "Deki" fought for the DPR since 2014 and has been active in this SpedOp as well. Unfortunately the stream is in Serbo-Croatian with no subtitles (yet), but I'll post below some key takeaways I found interesting.

Key takeaways:

• While we don't see all of Russia's equipment, they are indeed sending mostly lower tier stuff. The artillery, even the shit tier one, is doing its job pretty decently.
• The reason why the Russians are advancing almost as slow as the plot of One Piece is that Ukrainians are deeply dug-in in cities and villages and urban warfare being always a complicated matter. What makes it even more complicated is how the Ukrainians are going for the Palestinian approach of stationing their military equipment among civilian buildings. Ukraine also happens to be in terms of manpower and equipment the second military power in Europe after Russia, especially after eight years of Rocky Balboa montage training and gibs.
• In response to that, the Russians are flattening the battlefield with artillery before having the troops move in.
• The morale on the Russian side is for most part is pretty good. The Ukrainians have also a pretty decent morale, until the Russians put up a serious fight, which disappoints the Ukrainians immeasurably and ruins their day.
• As painfully full of shit the Ukrainian media is, it does, at least what Deki was able to hear from their radio stations and from Ukrainian POWs, deliver effective doses of copium to the Ukrainian troops by telling them stories how the Russians are on the run, how victory is near, how NATO will enter the war on their behalf any day etc.
• The Russians couldn't give less of a fuck about the world's opinion and even anticipated the hysterical reaction they got. They are dead set to see the SpedOp through. At least the troops on the ground.
• Deki noticed the presence of the Ukrainians, as both in manpower and military hardware, getting increasingly smaller. He also said that the overall losses of the Russians are far from small while describing Ukrainian casualties as "catastrophic". Deki's unit suffered 120 wounded and 20 KIA.
• The Ukrainians are using camouflage on their units and hardware as well as decoys pretty effectively.
• The Russians did at the very beginning indeed, and without the slightest hint of irony, expect that the Ukrainians would fold like a house of cards and embrace them with open arms. They didn't expect the Ukrainians not only to train for how to fight the Russians, but also how to hate them for the past eight years.
• The Ukrainian soldiers that are sent to the front don't undergo any rotation. Until the war ends, they're returning either on stretchers or in body bags. There are rumours on Ukrainian social media how dead Ukrainian soldiers have their organs harvested.
• The Ukrainians were capable of hiding some of their aircraft from initial Russian onslaught, in a similar way to how Serbia did in 1999, which is why Russia doesn't have uncontested air supremacy. The power discrepancy between Russia and Ukraine today is also much lower than between Serbia and NATO back then.
• The current Russian retreat from Kharkov Kharkiv isn't a 4D gamer move, but a tactical retreat since the Russians are being way too undermanned on that front. The Russian commanders' tactic in general is simply to throw the towel when they expect the casualties to be too unsustainable, retreat, regroup and then try again. Similar to Saturday morning cartoon villains, they take the L today and try again tomorrow. Deki heard that the Russians suffered some "serious" losses there, but we don't know how much. It's more or less the same situation as with the failed attempt at Kevin.
• Zelensky has hardly any influence among the Ukrainian military, which is de facto almost entirely commanded by foreign officers. Zelensky himself is merely a puppet who's left to hold the bag. How Ukraine is going to end the war is not his call to make.
• When answering a question from a comment on how the average Joe could donate money to the widows and orphans of this war, Deki brought up the fact that if he did a fundraiser through YouTube, Susan would take 30% of the cut, making all these Ukraine grift and shill videos from the beginning of the war even more kekworthy in hindsight.
• Deki speculates, and that's just his personal opinion, that the Donetsk, Lugansk Luhansk and Kherson Oblasts will most likely join Russia like Crimea and Sevasto/pol/' did, making all the Novorossiya meme maps a possible outcome. What Russia's end goal is remains to be seen. Deki also believes that all Azovites should be allowed to evacuate and fuck off to western Ukraine so that (if the Russians do indeed take everything east of the Dniepr river) they and the other Nazi LARPers can be the EU's problem from now on.
• The Russian tactic of dealing with western equipment that is sent to Ukraine is to wait for the trains to reach their first stop and literally BTFO them. Also a great number of Ukrainian train bridges have been destroyed making things for the Ukrainians even more easier said than done. The western material support to Ukraine is indeed a modern Lend-Lease and the question of how, or rather if, Ukraine is going to pay it back remains to be seen. While the casualty rates of both sides are as of now difficult to determine, yours truly believes it is safe to say that the American taxpayer is getting felted harder than both the Russians and the Ukrainians combined.
• The reason why the Russians aren't bombing Ukrainian HQs is that the Ukrainians have wisely dispersed and decentralised their command. If the Russians would bomb the Ukrainian MOD building now, chances are they'd only kill a few squatters and a j*nny.
• The artillery pieces the Ukrainians got from Germany and the Netherlands are mostly a morale boost since they loose more equipment than they receive.
• In regards to Snake Island Deki recounts what he heard from an officer: Apparently there were no Russian troops on the island left. The Ukrainians tried to recapture it as a propaganda victory for May 9th, but got their shit pushed in solely by Russian aircraft all for the sake of an empty rock. Omegalul if true. After that incident, the Russians redeployed some troops there.
• According to Deki, NATO will almost certainly not enter the war on behalf of Ukraine. If war with Russia was the goal, we'd have World War III already by now.
• In practical terms, Russia doesn't take any volunteers. If you want to fight for Russia, you have to be a Russian citizen and enlist in the military. The only way for anyone to enter the Donbass region from Russia is either as part of the military, as a journo of an accredited media outlet or if you have the right documents. We most likely won't see a Russian Reddit Battalion.
• The Chechens apparently do genuinely fight and aren't just glorified Instagram thots. The Russians are for OpSec reasons mostly prohibited from making videos. Why the Chechens are an exception is a mystery for now.
• Deki accuses Igor Girkin "Strelkov" of being a certified pussy and a traitor. It was due to Strelkov's incompetence that back in 2014 the DPR lost not only vital cities such as Sloviansk, but almost half of its territory leading him to become a disgraced laughingstock. Strelkov's doomposting whenever the Russians take an L is his way of expressing schadenfreude and getting back at the people who bullied him. Strelkov is at this point probably one of Ukraine's main copium dealers as apparently one Ukrainian POW Deki interviewed was convinced in Ukraine's victory after binge watching Strelkov's doomposting videos on YouTube.
• The current happenings in Transnistria Pridnestrovia is most likely a gay op to get Moldova involved on Ukraine's side and wipe out the local Russian troops there.
• Captured foreign volunteers and mercs will have the book thrown at them. Those who are found guilty of committing warcrimes on the DPR will be shot. End of story. You did it Reddit!
• Big if true: Apparently a Canadian (maybe Trevor John Cadieu or someone else) and an American NATO officer were captured in Mariu/pol/' and have already been sent to Russia. It would probably explain why the Ukrainians were so desparate to evacuate the Azovstal complex via helicopter. I expect this to be either confirmed or deboonked within days or weeks at most.
• In what has to be peak Berenstein Universe, the Azov Nazi LARPers within Azovstal were, during their latest attempt to contact the outside world, begging Israel to rescue them.
• The Bayraktar drone is ridiculously overrated and overhyped to the point of being meme as the Russians are easily destroying them. It is actually the very small drones with which the Ukrainians get shit done and are a massive pain in the Russians' vag as said drones do an excellent job at scouting and leading the Ukrainian artillery.
• What the Russians have going for them: Aircraft and artillery. What the Ukrainians have going for them: Massive numerical superiority and, thanks to the west, better equipment.

Again, since he is a DPR soldier, and thus an active participant in this war, take what he said with a grain of salt. But it's fascinating even if half of the shit he said turns out to be true. I would especially love to hear the take of our Russian posters.

And also apologies for the long spergpost.

 

[Givi]

Russia doesn't get to declare victory unilaterally this time.

They absolutely do. Ukraine does not have the manpower, means, air support or artillery to ever even think of attacking a defensive Russian line if they decided to end it without forcing Ukraine to accept their terms (which they probably won't). That is, unless they want to go on their own retarded 200,000 men offensive that would just result in them getting ass fucked by air power and artillery.

There's a reason they can't even attack Kherson, dude. No artillery, no air power, no way to attack heavily defended places.

This is not Georgia in 2004, or Ukraine in 2014. Putin has bungled his country into an honest to god war. A war where a Russian city with a population of 350,000 is now in range of enemy guns

Can people on the internet please stop falling for the fucking retarded wunderwaffen hype on the media? Hypersonic missiles aren't a game changer, switchblade drones have done fuck all we can verify in this war so far, and 90 howitzers isn't going to make a lick of difference in it either (that is, of course assuming all of them make it intact to the frontline which obviously isn't happening in even the best of conditions).

Belgorod has been in range of Ukrainian artillery for at least a month and a half, the city hasn't fucking moved and neither have the borders. Ukraine always had Pions and Smerchs that could easily have been used to fire at the city. They weren't used because counter battery would have immediately wiped them off the map for no gain other than maybe a couple of dead vatnik civilians, which is exactly why Ukraine is probably not going to bother shelling anything in Belgorod unless there's a military warehouse in range, which is actually a worthwhile target to risk your artillery battery over.

If he even tried to pull back and leave a "peacekeeping" force, they would get wrecked immediately.

If Russia pulled back, they wouldn't leave a "peacekeeping force", they'd leave 100,000 men and have their air force on call forever in case the Ukrainians tried anything, and the Ukrainian troop build up for any realistic offensive would be so obvious that they'd be able to station more men and equipment there as well in preparation.

What good is a peacekeeping force when the other side is perfectly happy to lob high explosive ordinance into their positions?

Counter battery fire don't real?

The word out of Kiev atm is they think they can settle their issues with Russia by force, and impose a peace on their terms.

There is literally nothing more retarded in a war than ignoring the situation on the ground and listening to politicians who have to rally their people and keep morale high. Ukraine isn't going to come out and say "we're losing lol, get ready to lose the Donbas, Kherson and half of Zaporizhia forever xD" and Russia wouldn't do it either in the same situation. Stop listening to the belligerents of a war, in the middle of a war, and assuming what they're saying is completely and 100% true and honest.

@Fougaro

Amazing post, thanks for translating and transcribing this stuff. His opinions seem to be lockstep with what we've been able to see and figure out from the changing situation in the battlefield and the opinion of fighters from all fronts. Separatist and Russian morale in general seems to be fairly high despite the fact that they're taking losses, and his opinion of the Chechens matches what other separatists have said about them: fanatic, but good fighters.

 

[Feline Supremacist]

The fights between post soviet States like Armenia and Azerbaijan, or the internal African tribal conflicts are not the same types of conflicts as what we have here.

Why not? What makes this war so special other than your weird claim it is? War is the continuation of politics by other means you doofus. This observation was made by von Clausewitz in 1832. I'm not going to get into Crimea, the Donbass separatists and their position because it would take pages and others have already discussed it at length.

If anything, the USA is a moderating force. Without America sitting on the Europeans there would be nobody holding them back from settling old scores with the Russians.

Nigga are you deaf, dumb and blind? We aren't moderating shit, we're funding and arming a country that would collapse otherwise. That's not moderation, that's instigation. There is no country in Europe that could take on Russia and win on its own.

Sure, its the aftermath of 2014. But its a very different war. Russia walked into Ukraine in 2014 while it was in Chaos from the Euromaidan and didn't have a military. That was 8 years ago, and Ukraine has clearly taken the lessons of it too heart. They've spent the last 8 years training their Army to fight Russia, and it shows.

Are you saying the Ukraine had no military in 2014? Whose was lobbing missiles into the Donbass then?

How precisely do you propose deescalating this war to a low level that "border troops" would even be a thing?

I am not proposing anything. I am merely making observations on the limited and often dubious information available. Nowhere in this thread have I proposed a single thing regarding this conflict.

If the US money stops, its because we've stopped sitting on Europe. In which case god help us all because Poland, Finland and the Baltics will get involved directly. Russia has used up ALL its good will at this point. None of the countries west of the Dneiper trust them, and will get involved the moment it seems things on the front are wavering.

Not my problem. And its not yours either.

Without exception every first year and senior pol sci major I met was a fucking retard. Their discipline is also as retarded as they are, and if you are identifying with those mouth breathers, or god help you, are one of them, then you too are retarded.

Dude, you are the biggest retard here. I simply made an observation that someone starting to study political affairs would have a better grasp of what the actual issues are and the probable outcomes of this conflict, based on past historical events. Your takes are literally plebe tier.