Russian Invasion of Ukraine Megathread

[Derka Derka]

What map are you using, to track the front lines/hotspots?

I'm currently using liveuamap.com.
But have seen at least one other (in some earlier vids) that highlights daily changes interactively

 

[Based Boy]

Chief Rabbi of Ukraine asks Israel to save Azov

https://www.segodnya.ua/strana/podr...rosit-izrail-spasti-boycov-azova-1620634.html
https://24tv.ua/ru/glavnyj-ravvin-u...omoch-spasti-zashhitnikov-mariupolja_n1979657

Sorry AZOG sisters... Should not have sided with the Jews.

 

[DumbDude42]

I can't get over how according to him the Ukies somehow have over twice as many killed over wounded.

this seems very suspicious
usually the number of wounded far exceeds the number of killed, no?

 

[XYZpdq]

Chief Rabbi of Ukraine asks Israel to save Azov

honk honk

 

[mindlessobserver]

Some more hot M777 action.

 

[Smity Werbenjagermanjensen]

this seems very suspicious
usually the number of wounded far exceeds the number of killed, no?

Yes. Usually it's a wounded outnumber dead by around double. Now the fact that dead outnumber wounded isn't an instant bullshit alarm, more of a massive red flag, but the fact that according to Rybar dead outnumber wounded by more than double is the instant bullshit alarm. To get that ratio you have to go back to the days before antibiotics, where getting shot basically means a massive chance to either die of the resulting infection or having the limb chopped off.

 

[World in Scarlet]

We have proof that Ukrainian boots were on the ground. This heavily supports the Russian claims of bombings (confirmed by Ukrainian video of them), followed and preceded by heavy UAV activity (confirmed by both sides) and an eventual landing. They didn't teleport there. Not only that but we also got confirmation from the Ukrainians that Igor Bedzai died there - who was apparently piloting a helicopter. Bedzai was an important guy - deputy commander of the Ukrainian Navy (for aviation) and one of their most senior pilots. All the evidence points towards a strong attack on Snake Island that failed miserably.

The claim in the very first day of the landing on the island was that the Russians had waited for the Ukrainians to land, destroyed all their boats and helicopters, and stranded them on the island. There isn't any proof that would make me believe this wasn't the case, especially when I see several Ukrainians dead on the Island and no helicopter wreckage. Also notable is that Ukrainian sources confirmed Bedzai was shot down by a fighter missile - and the Russians also claim that all the helicopters used on the attack were destroyed by Russian aviation.

When it comes to their boasts - well, it would be absurdly lucky if any of the jets, UAVs and helicopters crashed in the island instead of the ocean, not to mention the landing and attack craft. 6 helicopters were also claimed to be destroyed in an airfield in Odessa - though they were meant to join the attack. There will likely never be any way to confirm this, but we know at least one pilot was there, and died, presumably with his helicopter.

What evidence of Ukrainian boots on the island do we have?
The bodies on the ground could be anyone, for all we know it's just members of the Russian garrison doing a video ops. Their faces are blurred out and one of them wears what appears to be a Russian belt. I don't think I saw any injuries either.

The Russian media has replaced the video that showed the bodies with one where the entirety of the bodies is blurred out for some reason, which is strange, since there was no gore or anything. It does hide the Russian looking belt though.

Igor Bedzai died, but the Ukrainians have not said where and when it happened, and as far as I know the Russians have provided no evidence that he was flying over Snake Island that day either. They also reported his death several days after the Ukrainians, which makes sense since they keep having these incidents where people they said they killed or captured go on to post videos on social media mocking them. Of course they could have somehow learned it was him later, but that requires further assumptions we have no information on.
So unless I'm unaware of something, that means there is no evidence for the Ukrainian landing.

Why believe it took place then? I mean, why prefer an unlikely story without evidence, over one that is reasonably well documented? As you say, we won't learn the actual truth of most of these things until after the war, if even then.

I haven't seen any proof of heavy losses from both sides around the border. What we saw was a very rapid Ukrainian advance (often taking several villages within hours). This wouldn't happen with heavy fighting, even the dinkiest small village that's well defended would take more than that to take. In fact, the only reported fighting I've heard about involved LPR conscripts near Staryi Saltiv and obviously didn't go their way.

The Ukrainian offensive started like 3 weeks ago and the Russian border is only 20-30 miles from Kharkiv. I'm sure the Russians evacuated some exposed positions, but I think if there was no substantial resistance the Ukrainian army would have covered the distance faster than that.

The problem with attacking Belgorod isn't range, it's getting your limited artillery arsenal destroyed by counter battery fire or spotted by UAVs and subsequently destroyed by aviation because you want to hit targets of questionable importance in a place where you have no SAM umbrella. I imagine anything nailed to the ground that's valuable within artillery range has already, or is in the process of, being moved. But that's just a guess.

Yeah, but pushing back the Russians gives the Ukrainians the ability to hit targets from behind defences, even though they could probably theoretically do it from maximum range with artillery close to the front line before. Facilities can't be easily moved, and forcing Russian logistics in the back of Izyum into a less comfortable position is probably worth something in itself.

 

[Aidan]

Some more hot M777 action.

View attachment 3286487

Is this a non-retarded arty strategy? "Bounding artillery" or some shit? I get that knowing grid squares you can probably adjust accordingly to hit your mark and stay on the move but fuck if it seems extremely cumbersome.

 

[DumbDude42]

Is this a non-retarded arty strategy? "Bounding artillery" or some shit? I get that knowing grid squares you can probably adjust accordingly to hit your mark and stay on the move but fuck if it seems extremely cumbersome.

it is cumbersome, self propelled howitzers are much better at this compared to towed ones, but it's still worth doing to avoid getting blasted by counter battery fire

 

[mindlessobserver]

Is this a non-retarded arty strategy? "Bounding artillery" or some shit? I get that knowing grid squares you can probably adjust accordingly to hit your mark and stay on the move but fuck if it seems extremely cumbersome.

You have to move after every fire mission. It's a pain in the ass, but it has to be done. Usually artillery companies will have a more stationary command tent a good distance away from the guns where they do all the fire control and so on. The guns themselves have to move after every mission, even if it's just a few hundred meters.

Also, it's confirmed by science that if you get to pull the lanyard on an M777 your penis gains an inch in length.

 

[Big Fat Frog]

damn this war footage is getting crazy

 

[St.Davis]

The bodies on the ground could be anyone, for all we know it's just members of the Russian garrison doing a video ops. Their faces are blurred out and one of them wears what appears to be a Russian belt. I don't think I saw any injuries either.

What makes it appear to be a Russian belt? I admittedly don't know what belts the Russians typically wear with their uniforms, so I would be interested in being more knowledgable.

 

[Givi]

What evidence of Ukrainian boots on the island do we have?
The bodies on the ground could be anyone, for all we know it's just members of the Russian garrison doing a video ops.

What kind of theory is this? Yeah, I'm sure the Russians recorded their own dead on the island and posted them online, right after looting them. And of course, they also brought Javelins along with them so they could drop them next to these corpses to make it more convincing.

Igor Bedzai died, but the Ukrainians have not said where and when it happened,

He's a member of the Ukrainian Navy and was in a Mi-14 anti submarine helicopter. He was confirmed killed by a fighter missile, consistent with what the Russians said happened to all the helicopters assaulting Snake Island, his death was reported one day, by Ukrainian sources, after the initial May 7 landing. All the evidence points to him being part of the assault.

Why believe it took place then? I mean, why prefer an unlikely story without evidence, over one that is reasonably well documented? As you say, we won't learn the actual truth of most of these things until after the war, if even then.

What are you talking about? All the evidence here points to Bedzai being part of an attack party on Snake Island. Both sides' versions line up well with what I'm saying, and both sides admit to key points that make it possible to reconstruct the events.

The Ukrainian offensive started like 3 weeks ago and the Russian border is only 20-30 miles from Kharkiv. I'm sure the Russians evacuated some exposed positions, but I think if there was no substantial resistance the Ukrainian army would have covered the distance faster than that.

They were probably under artillery and aviation fire the whole time. Not only that but they have to clear out the villages and surroundings before moving on to the next one, they can't just go through and expect the places to be clear, that's how the Russians got ambushed constantly in the first stages of the war. Not to mention that you have to give time to your engineers so they can make sure places aren't booby trapped, and deal with any obvious mines laid about. I've seen no evidence of prolonged resistance from the Russians from either side, in fact, IIRC the Ukrainians published a video about the taking of some of these villages where we see no fighting.

Yeah, but pushing back the Russians gives the Ukrainians the ability to hit targets from behind defences, even though they could probably theoretically do it from maximum range with artillery close to the front line before.

A border isn't a defensible point, it's a morale victory in the sense that they pushed them back but there's very questionable tactical benefit to it. Nobody's going to set up artillery batteries on the Russian border where they're vulnerable to basically everything, including small scale special forces incursions (wouldn't be the first time Russians send small groups to deal with batteries, it's happened to a lot of GRADs in this war). You want your artillery as far away from fighting as you can without it losing effectiveness.

Facilities can't be easily moved, and forcing Russian logistics in the back of Izyum into a less comfortable position is probably worth something in itself.

The entire point of this push is exactly to try to force the Russians to move troops away from the Donbas and Izyum, but the Russians aren't biting so they still have to make a very risky river crossing if they want to put more pressure on them, their only choice is to pick where.

 

[mr.moon1488]

Yes. Usually it's a wounded outnumber dead by around double. Now the fact that dead outnumber wounded isn't an instant bullshit alarm, more of a massive red flag, but the fact that according to Rybar dead outnumber wounded by more than double is the instant bullshit alarm. To get that ratio you have to go back to the days before antibiotics, where getting shot basically means a massive chance to either die of the resulting infection or having the limb chopped off.

No, it's not. If this is coming from Russian information, then they're only reporting what enemy casualties they actually know of. A wounded Ukrainian soldier is a lot less likely to be discovered in a battle damage assessment than a dead one is since most armies aren't going to just leave their wounded lying around unless they absolutely have to.

Edit:
Even in both Iraq and Afghanistan, it was very rare to find wounded Taliban fighters or Iraqi soldiers. This is despite them obviously not having that great of medivac capabilities.

 

[draggs]

That attempted river crossing oof

Maybe losses weren't as high as the hohols claim but that still stings, you don't try a river crossing devoting those kinds of resources without being pretty not happy if it fails

 

[Lookie-lou]

I still find it amusing that Russia lost her Flagship...in a land war.

what makes it twice as funny is when you realise, given the below waterline strike and Ukrainian inability to torpedo: it was likely a bunch of crappy mines dumped off an odessa docks weeks before dock that most likely did it.

BTW, Russian flagship is byword for soviet era white elephant, they've not given a damn about their surface fleet since the collapse. Blue water to Russians means boomers. and if you don't get it read below the headlines from now.

 

[World in Scarlet]

What kind of theory is this?

Ok, here is my theory:

The Ukrainians attack Snake Island by air, as they did before, and destroy various materiel, as they did before, including a helicopter. This is visible on video and we see the wrecking on the next day.
The Russians are embarrassed, because this shows that they are apparently incapable of keeping the Ukrainian air force from striking the island at will. The timing is awkward as well. So they make up a story about how ACTUALLY Russia won a great victory there, destroying many Ukrainian forces, great debacle! The Ukrainians are so cocky, but reality is not twitter, kokoko~ You know how they act in their propaganda broadcasts.

They find that NATO tube somewhere and find some corpses. Maybe it's their own dead from the attack, maybe it's living soldiers posing for the video. I think it's the latter, since none of them have obvious injuries. They film a shitty 10 second black and white video and blur out the faces, so nobody can identify anyone. However, because it's such an improvised rushed job, they accidently have one of the "corpses" wear a belt that is only sold in Russia and features a symbol the Ukrainian military doesn't use. So they delete the first release and re-release it with the entire bodies being blurred out.

They dig up the name of an Ukrainian officer who died around that time and claim actually he was killed in an attack on the island.

There, it fits all the evidence, it fits how both sides behave (Russians have been caught staging shit and lying about events many times during this conflict), it requires no secret battles that nobody noticed and that left no traces. It requires no bizarre motivations on the Ukraine side (a suicide attack that can't possibly succeed or accomplish anything an air strike can't accomplish just as well), or on the Russian side (letting the Ukrainian air force bomb a strategically located outpost to rubble and destroy your equipment there just to bait in some ground troops, even though you were actually capable of destroying the Ukrainian air assets used in the operation at basically any point).

You want your artillery as far away from fighting as you can without it losing effectiveness.

So if the Russians are pushed back 20 miles, that means the artillery can move up 20 miles without increasing the danger. Likewise Ukrainian targets move out of range of some Russian weapons and make attacks more risky.

The entire point of this push is exactly to try to force the Russians to move troops away from the Donbas and Izyum, but the Russians aren't biting so they still have to make a very risky river crossing if they want to put more pressure on them, their only choice is to pick where.

I don't know what their exact goals are or what the exact situation on the ground is, but I don't think it's as harmless as you make it out to be. If the region was truly useless, the Russians could have just left it, as they did in the north. I think there are things in Belgorod Oblast and Izyum they would rather keep the Ukrainian army away from, but they lack the ability to put up more of a fight than they currently do.
It's not like the Ukrainians are the only ones who suffered severe losses in this war.

 

[Smity Werbenjagermanjensen]

No, it's not. If this is coming from Russian information, then they're only reporting what enemy casualties they actually know of. A wounded Ukrainian soldier is a lot less likely to be discovered in a battle damage assessment than a dead one is since most armies aren't going to just leave their wounded lying around unless they absolutely have to.

Edit:
Even in both Iraq and Afghanistan, it was very rare to find wounded Taliban fighters or Iraqi soldiers. This is despite them obviously not having that great of medivac capabilities.

Issue is Rybar is claiming to get his infomation from insiders in the Ukie General Staff so according to Rybar themselves this isn't infomation from Russia, but infomation from their ass from some high ranking Ukie officer.

 

[World in Scarlet]

What makes it appear to be a Russian belt? I admittedly don't know what belts the Russians typically wear with their uniforms, so I would be interested in being more knowledgable.

It's sold in a Russian store, is called "Patriot Belt (Navy)" and features what looks like the emblem of the Russian Marines.

https://www.knife-vorsma.ru/remen-poyasnoy-patriot-vmf/ [Archive]

It's not 100% proof it's staged, but it's weird for a Ukrainian soldier to wear the emblem of the Russian Marines, and it's weird that the Russians edited the video after people started to wonder about it.

 

[Aidan]

You have to move after every fire mission. It's a pain in the ass, but it has to be done. Usually artillery companies will have a more stationary command tent a good distance away from the guns where they do all the fire control and so on. The guns themselves have to move after every mission, even if it's just a few hundred meters.

Also, it's confirmed by science that if you get to pull the lanyard on an M777 your penis gains an inch in length.

Were you arty?
The video seemed like they were shootin' 'n scootin' which will probably mitigate the issue of return fire but at the cost of really doing much. It's 1 gun. I don't know anything about arty tactics it just seems ineffective. As far as I know, and maybe this only applies to the sandbox, but US troops set up shop and can fuck shit up for miles away and have no reason to move because well... there's miles of impact zone to navigate to get to them and you're not sneaking up on them.