Disaster India bans wheat exports to try and tame prices as a scorching heatwave curtailed output - India is the second-largest wheat producer on the world.

https://archive.ph/OaX7O

May 14 2022

India banned wheat exports on Saturday, just days after saying it was targeting record shipments this year, as a scorching heatwave curtailed output and local prices hit an all-time high amid strong export demand.

The government said it would still allow exports for letters of credit that have already been issued and on the request from countries that are trying “to meet their food security needs.”

Global buyers were banking on the world’s second-biggest wheat producer for supplies after exports from the Black Sea region plunged following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February. Prior to the ban, India was targeting to ship out a record 10 million tonnes this year.

The Indian ban could drive up global prices to new peaks and hit poor consumers in Asia and Africa.

“The ban is shocking,” a Mumbai-based dealer with a global trading firm said. “We were expecting curbs on exports after 2-3 months, but seems inflation numbers changed government’s mind.”



Rising food and energy prices pushed India’s annual retail inflation up towards an eight-year high in April, strengthening economists’ view that the central bank would have to raise interest rates more aggressively to curb prices.
Wheat prices in India have risen to a record high, in some spot markets to as high as 25,000 rupees ($322.71) per metric ton, versus the government’s fixed minimum support price of 20,150 rupees.

Heat wave shrinks crop​

Earlier this week, India outlined its record export target for the 2022/23 fiscal year that started on April 1, adding it would send trade delegations to countries such as Morocco, Tunisia, Indonesia and the Philippines to explore ways to further boost shipments.
But a sharp and sudden rise in temperatures in mid-March means the crop size could be smaller than expected at around 100 million tonnes or even lower, a New Delhi-based dealer with a global trading firm said, versus a government estimate for an all-time high of 111.32 million tonnes.

“The government’s procurement has fallen more than 50%. Spot markets are getting far lower supplies than last year. All these things are indicating lower crop,” the dealer said.

In April, India exported a record 1.4 million tonnes of wheat and deals were already signed to export around 1.5 million tonnes in May.

“Indian ban will lift global wheat prices. Right now there is no big supplier in the market,” the second dealer said.

 

[Sweet and Savoury]

So not only are we heading for a economic crises were looking at a possible worldwide famine as well.

Wunderbar.

 

[Cincinnatus]

So not only are we heading for a economic crises were looking at a possible worldwide famine as well.

Wunderbar.

It's more like a "probable worldwide famine" at this point.

 

[wtfNeedSignUp]

China is currently sitting on an astronimical amount of the worlds wheat supply, stockpiled. Which probably has more to do with India's move than anything else. The worlds wheat supply was suddenly hoovered up by China over the past 2 years. And other governments are getting nervous.

It's China though, no way a massive percentage of it isn't filled with rat shit and doused with harmful chemicals.

 

[Kane Lives]

So not only are we heading for a economic crises were looking at a possible worldwide famine as well.

Wunderbar.

Meh. Worldwide is an overstatement imo. Very likely, if there's a famine, it'd be unevenly distributed. The Americas, for example, would be likely quite unaffected, save for a few seasonal products vanishing, since they're a net food exporter. Ditto for Western Europe, which will be rich enough to get first dibs on food imports.

The biggest losers would likely be a large swathe of Africa and poorer Middle Eastern countries, which were already food insecure in better times. Expect mass casualties and horrific wars sparked by this over there. Asia is so-so, China had been already stockpiling food for sometime, and the richer ones like Japan and most of SEAsia would likely make it without issue. India might feel the crunch however, as do the poorer Central Asian -stans.

 

[Cincinnatus]

Western Europe, which will be rich enough to get first dibs on food imports.

If there is a worldwide famine the stream of refugees from Africa and the Middle-East we have seen for the last decade will become a deluge. Read Camp of the Saints if you want an analysis of how that would end.

 

[CAPTAIN HAPPY]

It's another good day to be a potato farmer.

 

[Cincinnatus]

It's another good day to be a potato farmer.

Until your hungry neighbors decide to pay you a visit...

 

[CAPTAIN HAPPY]

Until your hungry neighbors decide to pay you a visit...

It's a good day t be a potato farmer among other potato farmers lol

 

[Cincinnatus]

It's a good day t be a potato farmer among other potato farmers lol

By neighbors I mean the culturally enriched, extremely populous communities your state/country has. Imagine thousands of starving city-dwellers armed with guns they stole from a police station or national guard armory.

 

[FFinfo]

It's more like a "probable worldwide famine" at this point.

View attachment 3291174

@Null going to be taking that PPP weight loss challenge after all unless you return to Florida and hunt gators.

 

[Gender: Xenomorph]

guns they stole from a police station or national guard armory

In Europe?

 

[Cincinnatus]

In Europe?

Yes. Every government stockpiles weapons, even wimpy countries like Sweden.

 

[Mega Man II Intro - GB]

Africa and poorer Middle Eastern countries, which were already food insecure in better times. Expect mass casualties and horrific wars sparked by this over there

Conveniently we're sending troops to Somalia. I mean I don't want to doompost about how they're engineering WW3... but if they were doing that, wouldn't it look similar to this?

Famine in Africa and Middle East. Every European country joining NATO. Russia/China/India allied against the West. We have no access to chips if they declare it so. Europe has no access to oil if they declare it so.

We're going to see an uptick in apocalyptic talk soon.

 

[Ow The Edge]

By neighbors I mean the culturally enriched, extremely populous communities your state/country has. Imagine thousands of starving city-dwellers armed with guns they stole from a police station or national guard armory.

Large numbers of those will be dead in short order if this really gets going, mostly at one another's hands.

 

[Cincinnatus]

Large numbers of those will be dead in short order if this really gets going, mostly at one another's hands.

London has nearly 9 million people. If 10% of them survive that's still 900,000 people.

 

[CAPTAIN HAPPY]

By neighbors I mean the culturally enriched, extremely populous communities your state/country has. Imagine thousands of starving city-dwellers armed with guns they stole from a police station or national guard armory.

This isn't the soviet times, chief.
Let those fags who can barely lift their iphones come to the countryside. We'll get a chance to show how poor and defenseless us potato farmers are these days.

 

[Ow The Edge]

London has nearly 9 million people. If 10% of them survive that's still 900,000 people.

The average modern urban dweller is not much of a tactical threat right now, let alone when burdened with starvation, dehydration, and massive trauma. I doubt very much they even know what potato plants look like, let alone where to go looking for them.

 

[Cincinnatus]

This isn't the soviet times, chief.

Actually I think it's exactly like the Soviet Times. The urban populace will enslave the rural populace the way the Moscovites enslaved Ukraine.

The average modern urban dweller is not much of a tactical threat right now, let alone when burdened with starvation, dehydration, and massive trauma. I doubt very much they even know what potato plants look like, let alone where to go looking for them.

I think you are severely underestimating the capacity for violence people have. If there is a famine an army of desperate, organized, well-armed people who outnumber you 100-to-1 will be at your doorstep soon enough.

 

[Ow The Edge]

I think you are severely underestimating the capacity for violence people have. If there is a famine an army of desperate, organized, well-armed people who outnumber you 100-to-1 will be at your doorstep soon enough.

The problem with your theory is the "organized" and "well-armed" bits. If there is a famine they will eat each other long before assembling an army to march out of the concrete jungle.

 

[Cincinnatus]

The problem with your theory is the "organized" and "well-armed" bits. If there is a famine they will eat each other long before assembling an army to march out of the concrete jungle.

I disagree. There are plenty of government officials, including military and police, in cities, and as I have already mentioned every government stockpiles weapons. There is a reason historically that rural communities are subjugated by urban communities.