War Invasion of Ukraine News Megathread - Thread is only for articles and discussion of articles, general discussion thread is still in Happenings.

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President Joe Biden on Tuesday said that the United States will impose sanctions “far beyond” the ones that the United States imposed in 2014 following the annexation of the Crimean peninsula.

“This is the beginning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine,” Biden said in a White House speech, signaling a shift in his administration’s position. “We will continue to escalate sanctions if Russia escalates,” he added.

Russian elites and their family members will also soon face sanctions, Biden said, adding that “Russia will pay an even steeper price” if Moscow decides to push forward into Ukraine. Two Russian banks and Russian sovereign debt will also be sanctioned, he said.

Also in his speech, Biden said he would send more U.S. troops to the Baltic states as a defensive measure to strengthen NATO’s position in the area.

Russia shares a border with Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.

A day earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered troops to go into the separatist Donetsk and Lugansk regions in eastern Ukraine after a lengthy speech in which he recognized the two regions’ independence.

Western powers decried the move and began to slap sanctions on certain Russian individuals, while Germany announced it would halt plans to go ahead with the Russia-to-Germany Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

At home, Biden is facing bipartisan pressure to take more extensive actions against Russia following Putin’s decision. However, a recent poll showed that a majority of Americans believe that sending troops to Ukraine is a “bad idea,” and a slim minority believes it’s a good one.

All 27 European Union countries unanimously agreed on an initial list of sanctions targeting Russian authorities, said French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, and EU foreign affairs head Josep Borell claimed the package “will hurt Russia … a lot.”

Earlier Tuesday, Borell asserted that Russian troops have already entered the Donbas region, which comprises Donetsk and Lugansk, which are under the control of pro-Russia groups since 2014.

And on Tuesday, the Russian Parliament approved a Putin-back plan to use military force outside of Russia’s borders as Putin further said that Russia confirmed it would recognize the expanded borders of Lugansk and Donetsk.

“We recognized the states,” the Russian president said. “That means we recognized all of their fundamental documents, including the constitution, where it is written that their [borders] are the territories at the time the two regions were part of Ukraine.”

Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Putin said that Ukraine is “not interested in peaceful solutions” and that “every day, they are amassing troops in the Donbas.”

Meanwhile, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday morning again downplayed the prospect of a Russian invasion and proclaimed: “There will be no war.”

“There will not be an all-out war against Ukraine, and there will not be a broad escalation from Russia. If there is, then we will put Ukraine on a war footing,” he said in a televised address.

The White House began to signal that they would shift their own position on whether it’s the start of an invasion.

“We think this is, yes, the beginning of an invasion, Russia’s latest invasion into Ukraine,” said Jon Finer, the White House deputy national security adviser in public remarks. “An invasion is an invasion and that is what is underway.”

For weeks, Western governments have been claiming Moscow would invade its neighbor after Russia gathered some 150,000 troops along the countries’ borders. They alleged that the Kremlin would attempt to come up with a pretext to attack, while some officials on Monday said Putin’s speech recognizing the two regions was just that.

But Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters Tuesday that Russia’s “latest invasion” of Ukraine is threatening stability in the region, but he asserted that Putin can “still avoid a full blown, tragic war of choice.”

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There are still mines from the early 80s and before fucking up Cambodia.

Also, little kids, doggos, wildlife, and livestock can't read.

Mines are awful.

And Vietnam, I read an article where older women were volunteering to help clear old minefields because most of the leftover mines were maiming and killing children.
 
@Mr E. Grifter There's also the X-37B, which has been in orbit since 2020. Its capabilities are all classified to hell and back, but the speculation is that it carries a fairly comprehensive sensor suite, which combines with its known ability to shift orbits at will to provide an unpredictable, highly capable observation platform. The OTV-5 mission was observed to change orbits multiple times, leaving several-day gaps between it "disappearing" and public knowledge of its new orbit filtering out again.
 
The idea that the US could ever run out of weapons is ridiculous. You would have to be ignorant of how things work in the US or really gullible to believe it. Also, this idea that we are going to go broke giving weapons to Ukraine is just as idiotic. I could see if everything was being produced for Ukraine but it's not. It's weapon systems the US already has, and it's all been paid for years ago. Defense contractor doesn't make a bunch of weapons and then sell them to the government.
The idea that Uncle Sam will go broke trying to outspend a country that makes less money than New York does in a year is hilarious. We literally bankrupted the USSR by spending more than they possibly could and scaring the crap out of them, modern Russia is even worse than the USSR due to all the oligarchies and corruption. If the Russians were smart, they'd have declared victory and withdrew months ago, but apparently, the ruination of their country and the humiliation of its military is a small price to pay for keeping their neighbors away from the West. Which only led to Sweden and Finland applying for NATO membership.

Any news on Putin getting sick? It sounds awfully familiar to what Hitler was going through in his last few days.
 
The BMD makes much more sense when you consider it was supposed to be air dropped into the rear lines where guys with GMPG's with AP rounds would be less prevalent and also likely suffering chemical attacks. It's an OK scout vehicle in that it's light and can pack quite a punch, but using it outside of fire support against lightly armed resistance or to threaten flanks is dangerous
The BMD has its flaws compared to the Bradley (major flaws that should have been attended to years ago, BMD-1, late 60s and the present one dates from 2004), but certainly the bigger flaw seems to be supposedly elite Russian troops huddling in it, rather than dismounting and resolving the issues a soldier faces in an urban area like ambushes. Sad for their families. If their deaths are acknowledged, they'll barely get a fraction of the price of a meal in the fine dining establishments Putin and his pals would frequent. Little Macron is probably already cooking up another Ukrainian surrender to save little Pootin and his blanky.



In 1944, expelling the Crimean Tatars from their land, the then torturers were convinced that none of the displaced would return home, to Crimea.
Now, trying to occupy Ukraine and destroy our lives, the current torturers of the people were also convinced that everything would work out for them and that we would not be able to endure it.
And we endured. And we are struggling to bring life back to every corner of our home. And we are coming back.

Eternal memory to all victims of the genocide of the Crimean Tatar people!

Official Zelenskiy telegram channel

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Відновлення України зараз має стати таким же історичним прикладом для нашого часу і майбутнього, яким свого часу стало відновлення європейських країн після Другої світової війни. —— The reconstruction of Ukraine must now become the same historical example for our time and for the future as the restoration of European countries after World War II. Photo: Rui Caria, David Guttenfelder, Diego Herrera, Slava Ratynski, Zohra Benserma.
Zelenskiy telegram channel

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American M240 machine guns of 7.62 mm caliber, were previously only in service with the US Armed Forces and the Israeli army, now they are also in service with the territorial defense forces of the Zaporozhye region
 
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The recent Ukrainian propaganda about the expulsion of Crimean Tatar makes me think Kyiv might be aiming to retake Crimea now
Ukranian War aims changed dramatically after the Ukranians held off well and now seem to be counter attacking russians in good places. So long term they're going for recovering their turf.
 
The recent Ukrainian propaganda about the expulsion of Crimean Tatar makes me think Kyiv might be aiming to retake Crimea now
Putin's repeated broken promises made to Turkey about respecting Crimean Tatar cultural institutions will likely ensure that Ukraine can happily rely on the newest Bayraktar TB2 UCAVs reaching them in the highest possible quantity. Turkey is officially neutral, what better way to benefit from those Russians using it to evade Western measures, but is neutrality which is much more useful to Ukraine, Any efforts to press into Crimea might make Mr Pootin blanket a little bit berserk, resulting in an unhinged order which gets him removed and sectioned. Perhaps it might be more about making clear the unrecognised annexation will not be accepted. Reducing the shabby Donbas statelets might be more realistic. Ukraine will surely ignore midget Macron's effort to spare the blushes of his fellow manlet. Putinism and related imperial fantasies have to be shown to be an utter ignominious failure.

RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, MAY 17​

May 17, 2022 - Press ISW

Download the PDF

Kateryna Stepanenko, Frederick W. Kagan, and George Barros

May 17, 7:00 pm ET
Mariupol defenders trapped in the Azovstal Steel Plant likely surrendered after Ukrainian officials negotiated evacuation measures with the Kremlin. Russian forces began evacuating wounded Ukrainian forces to Russian-occupied settlements in Donetsk Oblast on May 16 after the Russian Defense Ministry proposed the agreement earlier in the day. Ukrainian officials said that they will seek to return the Mariupol defenders to Ukraine in a prisoner exchange and continue to undertake appropriate measures to rescue all Ukrainian servicemen from Azovstal.
The Kremlin might have agreed to the conditional surrender of the Azovstal defenders to accelerate Russia’s ability to declare Mariupol fully under its control. The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that the Russian Defense Ministry’s Department of Information and Mass Communications is hastily preparing a press tour of foreign journalists through occupied territories of Ukraine between May 18 and May 21.[1] The Kremlin also could have agreed to such a deal to secure a victory in order to deflect criticism on social media of the failed Russian Siverskyi Donets River crossings and the overall slow pace of the invasion.
The Kremlin might refuse to exchange the Mariupol defenders. Some Russian State Duma members are petitioning to pass laws that would prohibit prisoner exchanges for individuals accused of “Nazism.”[2] Russian State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin claimed that the Mariupol defenders must be charged with war crimes and cannot be exchanged for Russian prisoners of war.[3] The Kremlin may ignore the Russian State Duma’s concerns or use them to sabotage negotiations with Ukraine.
The surrender agreement generated some outrage and confusion on pro-Russian social media, rather than the celebration of the full capitulation of Mariupol that the Kremlin likely expected—possibly undermining Russian information operations. Some Russian Telegram channels ridiculed the Russian Defense Ministry for negotiating with Ukrainian “terrorists” and “Nazis.”[4] Some bloggers criticized the Donetsk People’s Republic for organizing the evacuation proceedings and blamed negotiating authorities for creating conditions for Ukrainian martyrdom.[5] Several Russian bloggers also called for the imprisonment or murder of surrendered Ukrainian servicemen.[6] Russian audiences are likely dissatisfied with the surrender agreement because they expected Russian forces to destroy Ukrainian defenders at Azovstal. The Kremlin has created large amounts of propaganda that portrayed successful Russian assaults on Azovstal without clearly setting conditions for surrender negotiations. Some Russians may find it difficult to reconcile the triumphant messaging with the abrupt negotiations leading to a negotiated surrender.
Russian forces have intensified artillery fire on Ukrainian border settlements in Chernihiv and Sumy oblasts over the past few weeks. The Ukrainian Northern Operational Command reported that Russian forces shelled the border between Sumy Oblast and Russia over 70 times on May 17.[7] Sumy Oblast Administration Head Dmytro Zhyvytskyi said that Russian saboteurs unsuccessfully attempted to break through the Ukrainian border on May 17.[8]
Key Takeaways
  • The Ukrainian military command ordered the remaining defenders of Azovstal to surrender, likely conditionally, in hopes of returning them to Ukraine as part of yet-to-be-negotiated prisoner exchanges.
  • The announcement of the likely conditional surrender generated outrage in the Russian information space and demands in the Russian Duma for laws prohibiting exchanging the surrendered defenders of Azovstal.
  • Russian forces continued to make limited advances in Donbas, primarily focused on setting conditions for the Battle of Severodonetsk.




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see remainder

ISW are a very good resource. Russia is feeding so much into this war, so this war remains extraordinarily harsh, but Ukraine is making far greater progress than Russia.




We remember Crimea. And we will never forget 1944 - the genocide of Crimean Tatars committed by the Soviet authorities. And 2014 - the second wave of destruction of everything free on the Crimean peninsula.
Especially on this day I signed the law on the protection of persons deprived of liberty by the occupiers, as well as on the protection of family members of such people. We are talking about all the Kremlin prisoners - both in Crimea and in the occupied part of Donbas. The law gives them more protection and assistance from the state.
source
 
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From what I hear raised money isn't all that significant thanks to level of life being shitty and rolling down fast. A lot of Russians just don't have a lot of income to donate and certainly worry about future, so it's not a major flow. There are some volunteers who try to get shit toward the front, but they are not high priced items, even if they get drones, they usually get the bottom priced ones and then complain that they suck.

In terms of Crimea ...

Ukraine moved to recognize persecution of Crimeans tatars sirca 2014 as acts of terrorism and genocide or something and Turkey jumped on that bandwagon pronto. It's somewhere in EU, they pass resolutions all the time, but seems like Turkey is def 100% support any beef against Crimean tatars.

There is an activization of the sabbotage/guerilla groups in Kherson/Melitopol and now Crimea, so it's def being warmed up.

Also, almost few months back there was a news of sudden increase of apartments for sale in Crimea and people trying to get out, especially if property bought was after 2014. A few weeks back someone posted similar news, that military, FSB and others are moving their families out and there is an excess of real estate for sale.
 
Since many Russiaboos keep saying that Russia is fighting with one hand tied behind its back, I have to ask, what the hell will mobilizing Russia as a nation in this war actually accomplish for Putin? Some of their best units like the Spetsnaz and the VDV were at the forefront and got wiped out rather decisively. Tanks and airplanes are getting shot down at an alarming rate. Would sending in more conscripts into the grinder solve anything? Not unless the Russians have more soldiers than the Ukrainians have bullets, and thanks to Uncle Sam, that obviously won't be the case.

At this point, declaring the "Special Military Operation" a full-on war won't just be an admission of defeat from Putin, it will be the end of Russia as a regional power as we know it.
 
Since many Russiaboos keep saying that Russia is fighting with one hand tied behind its back, I have to ask, what the hell will mobilizing Russia as a nation in this war actually accomplish for Putin? Some of their best units like the Spetsnaz and the VDV were at the forefront and got wiped out rather decisively. Tanks and airplanes are getting shot down at an alarming rate. Would sending in more conscripts into the grinder solve anything? Not unless the Russians have more soldiers than the Ukrainians have bullets, and thanks to Uncle Sam, that obviously won't be the case.

At this point, declaring the "Special Military Operation" a full-on war won't just be an admission of defeat from Putin, it will be the end of Russia as a regional power as we know it.
My main problem with mobilization being this mythical thing that would turn the tide is, what would they equip all those conscripts with? We've all seen pictures that show russians were already sending in rotting uniforms with rusting armor plates and sure, they probably have a shit ton of tanks and other combat vehicles in deep storage but A: using most of it effectively requires SOME training which takes time B: who knows how many of those engines will ever start again. The only thing that probably wouldn't be a massive issue is giving each conscript some variation of AK rifle and ammo.

Russia can declare mobilization and by the time they manage to plunder all of their storage for equipment and send in the first waves of untrained, low-morale conscripts armed to the teeth in surplus Red Army gear is about the time Ukrainians will be sending in theirs to the front lines with one major difference, Ukrainian conscripts will not only be better equipped, likely with NATO weapons and armor but also they will have had months of training by then and have sky-high morale by comparison.
 
My main problem with mobilization being this mythical thing that would turn the tide is, what would they equip all those conscripts with? We've all seen pictures that show russians were already sending in rotting uniforms with rusting armor plates and sure, they probably have a shit ton of tanks and other combat vehicles in deep storage but A: using most of it effectively requires SOME training which takes time B: who knows how many of those engines will ever start again. The only thing that probably wouldn't be a massive issue is giving each conscript some variation of AK rifle and ammo.
That's the most Russia can do; drown the enemy in men and assume the best. Despite the fact that their best clearly wasn't enough, so the most they can send now is more cannon fodder or more vehicles for Ukrainian farmers to steal.

Russia can declare mobilization and by the time they manage to plunder all of their storage for equipment and send in the first waves of untrained, low-morale conscripts armed to the teeth in surplus Red Army gear is about the time Ukrainians will be sending in theirs to the front lines with one major difference, Ukrainian conscripts will not only be better equipped, likely with NATO weapons and armor but also they will have had months of training by then and have sky-high morale by comparison.
Not to mention the fact that the Ukrainians will probably have NATO advisors teaching them how to fight, and many local militia would have become the equivalent of shock troops after drenching themselves in Russian blood for months on end.
 
That's the most Russia can do; drown the enemy in men and assume the best. Despite the fact that their best clearly wasn't enough, so the most they can send now is more cannon fodder or more vehicles for Ukrainian farmers to steal.


Not to mention the fact that the Ukrainians will probably have NATO advisors teaching them how to fight, and many local militia would have become the equivalent of shock troops after drenching themselves in Russian blood for months on end.
NATO hasn't exactly been hiding that they've been training the Ukranians since Crimea got invaded. They're just surprised it stuck, since most places it's turned out to be useless, like training the Afghans.

Now they're getting pretty specialized training.
 
From what I hear raised money isn't all that significant thanks to level of life being shitty and rolling down fast. A lot of Russians just don't have a lot of income to donate and certainly worry about future, so it's not a major flow. There are some volunteers who try to get shit toward the front, but they are not high priced items, even if they get drones, they usually get the bottom priced ones and then complain that they suck.
From what I hear Russian crowd funding attmepts are pathetic and demoralizing in itself. Things like LDPR fodder begging for a wheel chair or Russian soldiers getting beofeng radios. Meanwhile the the US there are dozens of organizations not only sending food and medical supplies, but uniforms, scopes, NVGs, body armor and the like for the Ukr military. I cleared out the gear the Army let me keep after I retired. The only thing I held on to besides my dress uniform is my old CVC helmet from crewing a M113. It is pretty uplifting to see stuff collected for people who I genuinely feel deserve it for a change.
 
Check out this post from @potato fan. It's that fucking sad and pathetic.
What a bunch of losers. I really hope it hits hard that they cosigned this when supporting the Novorussian movement in 2014. I heard a rumor that they have to take a photo for book keeping with the money. I read less depressing shit in warhammer 40k novels.
 
NATO hasn't exactly been hiding that they've been training the Ukranians since Crimea got invaded. They're just surprised it stuck, since most places it's turned out to be useless, like training the Afghans.

Now they're getting pretty specialized training.
I've seen comparisons to Afghanistan before, but they never made sense. Ukraine has national identity and history that makes them very motivated when it comes to Russia trying to erase them.
 
That's the most Russia can do; drown the enemy in men and assume the best. Despite the fact that their best clearly wasn't enough, so the most they can send now is more cannon fodder or more vehicles for Ukrainian farmers to steal.
I did some poking around at what Russia had in stored equipment and make some rough guesses when this idea was first kicked around. I figure best case they could mobilize 500k more. 350k in mostly equipped BTGs and 150k in lightly armed rear units doing logistics and security. This would strip everything bare. That's what the best case "red wave" could bring to the table. I think the Ukrainians could match it with foreign equipment and assistance. But that's pretty iffy.

However, the more I thought about it that is not a very good way to look at it. It's an assumption that they could do absolutely everything all at once and smash into each other. But that isn't how wars are fought. You can't go 0-60 like that. There isn't enough resources to process that amount of people that quickly. It would instead be just an expansion of the already in place training and equipping systems they have now. Going from processing 60k conscripts every 6 months to 120k in 3 months or something. That's the thing that is hard to get a handle on.

How many reservists can they push through refresher training? How quick can the stored equipment be put back into service? How much can the rail network handle? That is simply too much to predict. What it does show is that even my rosy prediction of 500k fresh troops if they went all-in is way too high. Merely constraining it to one variable (equipment) ignores all of the other rotten infrastructure needed to make it happen and one ignoring one other unconsidered variable. Time. They could maybe field all of them with all the stored equipment but it would likely take many years to do it.

The most they could do in actual war-winning terms is increase the rate at which fresh equipped troops show up to the meat grinder until their infrastructure reaches it's training/equipment/logistics limit. There will be no "red wave" and it's kinda pointless to think about it that way. Instead, already established units will just be able to make good their losses better (they have been getting mauled) and maybe some lighter units get bulked out. I don't think that is enough of an edge to get by the Ukes who can do the same thing but better and have a head start. Though it does mean a longer bloodier war before they are exhausted.
 
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