Global Supply Chain Crisis 2021: Megathread - A cozy thread for watching the supply chain fall apart just in time for the holidays

[Kuritan Deplorable]

How much would it help if 90% of environmental restrictions were lifted? Basically all stuff save for lead in food and dumping factory waste into the drinking water/farmland?

Just curious how that would effect non pozzed places like India if they didn't need to worry about carbon taxes.

In the short term? Not at all. The cost associated to most of these restrictions is more from the equipment needed to meet those needs - once you've got it, dropping the requirements doesn't really help. In the long term, building new facilities would be significantly cheaper on paper. In practice, nobody in their right mind would actually build to the loosened restrictions - you know for an absolute fact they'll flip the script as soon as they're not desperate and you'll get fined out the ass for all the profit you might have made for daring to have an eco-unfriendly facility.

Nobody trusts governments to not be petty assholes, so nobody is gonna play their games.

Here's a question, at what point do Diesel prices make a lot of things too unprofitable to continue? because we're starting down the barrel of $9 average in the next 100 days, so when can we expect truckers to stop operating?

Hard to say - freelance truckers would drop off the grid basically immediately, but a lot of trucking is large firm with large contracts with large breach of contract fees if one side or another starts to reneg (The only good reason for the non-trucking party to reneg would be if they fucked up and agreed to a fuel costs provision where they pay more if fuel costs climb, a stupid thing to do on a long term contract).

The end of it is the losses would have to climb in excess of whatever contract breach terms exist before it becomes worthwhile to actually terminate services. So it wouldn't be a widespread immediate collapse, but reflective of contract terms, total value being moved, and the liquidity of the firms on both sides while lawyers rake in advisement fees.

 

[Male Idiot]

In the short term? Not at all. The cost associated to most of these restrictions is more from the equipment needed to meet those needs - once you've got it, dropping the requirements doesn't really help. In the long term, building new facilities would be significantly cheaper on paper. In practice, nobody in their right mind would actually build to the loosened restrictions - you know for an absolute fact they'll flip the script as soon as they're not desperate and you'll get fined out the ass for all the profit you might have made for daring to have an eco-unfriendly facility.

Nobody trusts governments to not be petty assholes, so nobody is gonna play their games.

Hard to say - freelance truckers would drop off the grid basically immediately, but a lot of trucking is large firm with large contracts with large breach of contract fees if one side or another starts to reneg (The only good reason for the non-trucking party to reneg would be if they fucked up and agreed to a fuel costs provision where they pay more if fuel costs climb, a stupid thing to do on a long term contract).

The end of it is the losses would have to climb in excess of whatever contract breach terms exist before it becomes worthwhile to actually terminate services. So it wouldn't be a widespread immediate collapse, but reflective of contract terms, total value being moved, and the liquidity of the firms on both sides while lawyers rake in advisement fees.

I didn't mean the west. I meant 3rd world places shifting to stuff like cheaper but less healthy fuel and the like to feed ching, ooga and pajeet.

 

[Kuritan Deplorable]

I didn't mean the west. I meant 3rd world places shifting to stuff like cheaper but less healthy fuel and the like to feed ching, ooga and pajeet.

And those governments are less corrupt and less willing to fuck over their citizenry in some way?

Wouldn't fly. any pajeet or chink knows for a fact their government will personally shove a lethal environmental fine up their ass if they're making money that they could steal instead.

 

[Male Idiot]

And those governments are less corrupt and less willing to fuck over their citizenry in some way?

Wouldn't fly. any pajeet or chink knows for a fact their government will personally shove a lethal environmental fine up their ass if they're making money that they could steal instead.

Lol they got to eat. But you are as informative as a rock.

I asked if such regulations being repealed would help or not, not about theoretical corruption later on.

Like trucker chip shortages that could be easily fixed by simply no longer needing that chip.

 

[Kuritan Deplorable]

Lol they got to eat. But you are as informative as a rock.

I asked if such regulations being repealed would help or not, not about theoretical corruption later on.

Like trucker chip shortages that could be easily fixed by simply no longer needing that chip.

No - because as I said, nobody would jump on those opportunities because nobody trusts that the governments would not punish them to hell and back for it later.

To be more specific, small moves such as pulling environmental sensors from vehicles would not alleviate the immense fuel costs that are going around, and more trucks on the road would make it worse. The shortages have gone well beyond a few pieces that could otherwise easily be pulled without affecting functionality. The production of these newer shortages cannot be bypassed (Diesel is not an optional part of a diesel truck), and setting up or stripping down facilities to produce cheaper gas by bypassing environmental regulations would be extremely expensive due to the sheer amount of infrastructure involved. Any repeals on those rules would eventually see the rules reinstated, and suddenly your diesel plant is incredibly illegal and will cost a fortune once more to bring back into spec, and all you got for it was selling gas at a cheaper price. Even if beyond that, you still wanted to do it, acquiring material to do the work is growing increasingly difficult. And then if you still slogged through, its very likely the next administration will go after these companies for a political win over the excessive environmental damage caused, by their claims.

Unfortunately, there are simply too many interlinked points in the failures at this point. Repealing one piece wouldn't alleviate anything, and repealing massive pieces would just be putting a gun to someones head and telling them "no its ok you can break into my house but *just until I change my mind*".

 

[Male Idiot]

No - because as I said, nobody would jump on those opportunities because nobody trusts that the governments would not punish them to hell and back for it later.

To be more specific, small moves such as pulling environmental sensors from vehicles would not alleviate the immense fuel costs that are going around, and more trucks on the road would make it worse. The shortages have gone well beyond a few pieces that could otherwise easily be pulled without affecting functionality. The production of these newer shortages cannot be bypassed (Diesel is not an optional part of a diesel truck), and setting up or stripping down facilities to produce cheaper gas by bypassing environmental regulations would be extremely expensive due to the sheer amount of infrastructure involved. Any repeals on those rules would eventually see the rules reinstated, and suddenly your diesel plant is incredibly illegal and will cost a fortune once more to bring back into spec, and all you got for it was selling gas at a cheaper price. Even if beyond that, you still wanted to do it, acquiring material to do the work is growing increasingly difficult. And then if you still slogged through, its very likely the next administration will go after these companies for a political win over the excessive environmental damage caused, by their claims.

Unfortunately, there are simply too many interlinked points in the failures at this point. Repealing one piece wouldn't alleviate anything, and repealing massive pieces would just be putting a gun to someones head and telling them "no its ok you can break into my house but *just until I change my mind*".

That is sad news for the west. But I still think the 3rd world will manage somehow, as their governments are more reliant on the serfs' goodwill (or at least full stomach).

Of course if their food production is hit by a drought it won't matter.

I just don't see the full collapse people envision happening everywhere. Instead I think at least some governments will go through a crisis mode. Nationalising, redoing laws, all that.

 

[Kuritan Deplorable]

That is sad news for the west. But I still think the 3rd world will manage somehow, as their governments are more reliant on the serfs' goodwill (or at least full stomach).

Of course if their food production is hit by a drought it won't matter.

I just don't see the full collapse people envision happening everywhere. Instead I think at least some governments will go through a crisis mode. Nationalising, redoing laws, all that.

Barring direct action from hostile nations, its not gonna be a Mad Max future. We are probably going to see some major cultural and governmental shifts, and the societal conflicts and national wars that come with them. You are right that the 3rd world will probably fair a bit better, partially because they have less to lose, but also due to just being more used to hardship in recent memory. The anger over losing the opportunity of the west will exist, but the people themselves will already know how to survive on rice and old chicken.

 

[Flan Handler]

We’re about to have some young generations learn why Great Grandma saved bread bags and washed her aluminum foil. What we now call the“prepper lifestyle” used to be normal life.

So glad to be in the middle of nowhere right now.

Edit: I can’t find it now, but a few years back I watched a video with a Romanian talking about how to survive hyperinflation. Basic message: have stuff. Try to get as many things you will need for a few years to come including clothes, but also tools, metal, whatever you can get. You don’t know what’s going to help you the most.

Minimalists NGMI

 

[teriyakiburns]

Minimalists NGMI

I never did like that minimalist lifestyle bullshit. It's appealing to property ladder climbers, who want a home to look saleable, or to people who want to emulate "influencers" (who always seem to inhabit airy, featureless voids, decorated with the minimum necessary to break up the background,) but it's never a viable lifestyle.

 

[Blobby's Murder Knife]

Home made bread can last a week easily.

More than that. I was at some historical village in Germany and they basically only made bread once every three weeks or so because that was how long it lasted. They also made a point though not to make food taste good, lest the staff eat too much of it, so there ya go.

 

[Kuritan Deplorable]

I never did like that minimalist lifestyle bullshit. It's appealing to property ladder climbers, who want a home to look saleable, or to people who want to emulate "influencers" (who always seem to inhabit airy, featureless voids, decorated with the minimum necessary to break up the background,) but it's never a viable lifestyle.

Modern minimalism is not viable, replacing half a kitchen with a drawer of electric and plastic multipurpose gadgets that'll die after six months of daily use, but it doesn't matter because it looks pretty and fits in your tiny NYC Apartment.

Traditional minimalism is a few good cast iron pots and pans and a gas stove, which'll probably outlive you and your grandchildren, and cook just about anything you'd want with enough effort. Throw in a pressure cooker and some books on canning, and you'll outlast anything short of a nuke.

Somewhere along the way, minimalism went from a focus on dependable and reliable to a focus on fancy, and the whole point died with it.

 

[Flan Handler]

Modern minimalism is not viable, replacing half a kitchen with a drawer of electric and plastic multipurpose gadgets that'll die after six months of daily use, but it doesn't matter because it looks pretty and fits in your tiny NYC Apartment.

Traditional minimalism is a few good cast iron pots and pans and a gas stove, which'll probably outlive you and your grandchildren, and cook just about anything you'd want with enough effort. Throw in a pressure cooker and some books on canning, and you'll outlast anything short of a nuke.

Somewhere along the way, minimalism went from a focus on dependable and reliable to a focus on fancy, and the whole point died with it.

Agreed. I searched for one video for ideas on organizing some things, and my feed filled up with videos from influencers showing me around their almost empty houses and how they were raising their kids like this, and all their emotional problems and I was like, oh no I just need a place for my things, not to get rid of them.

Like you say, a few non-mechanized tools like pressure canners are worthwhile, and learn how to use enamel or cast iron and you’re set. Get an eye for longevity and quality- a lot of that stuff can be found second hand also.

 

[Blobby's Murder Knife]

Modern minimalism is not viable, replacing half a kitchen with a drawer of electric and plastic multipurpose gadgets that'll die after six months of daily use, but it doesn't matter because it looks pretty and fits in your tiny NYC Apartment.

Traditional minimalism is a few good cast iron pots and pans and a gas stove, which'll probably outlive you and your grandchildren, and cook just about anything you'd want with enough effort. Throw in a pressure cooker and some books on canning, and you'll outlast anything short of a nuke.

Somewhere along the way, minimalism went from a focus on dependable and reliable to a focus on fancy, and the whole point died with it.

One of the weirdest things about moving to Germany was how no Germans knew about or the value of cast iron cookware. I was insulted on a few occasions saying I was trying to larp as a peasant from 600 years ago, when honestly, cast iron is superior in several applications in the modern day. Bugmen everywhere.

 

[the fall of man]

There are a lot of unlikely people in California who are already functionally self sufficient, as in they live normal lives with jobs but then go home and tend their chickens and massive container gardens, have no-waste practices, and could survive for quite a length of time right where they are. We're also warned to keep between three days and two weeks of supplies in case of major earthquakes, and I also have solar usb chargers and a few batteries I charge at night for blackouts.

None of this actually helps in case of a major structural collapse, like an airburst nuclear weapon. Luckily, almost nobody wants to be the one who sets off another aboveground nuke - we just recently became able to manufacture low background steel again, and any nuclear power who didn't bring their big boy balls to the MAD table would likely see popular overthrow of their government.

The current global situation is bad and getting worse, but I think the people who are calling this "the great reset" are huffing rainbows. There will be a shift in the global order. Deglobalization is happening- there's a bumper crop of wheat in Australia, and India has stopped wheat exports. Lumber prices are sinking. Persistent high oil prices are beginning to cause demand destruction in the US, and holiday shipments of goods are just now starting to arrive at Target from the massive port backups.

This is a recipe for mass unemployment, recession, and revaluation of commodities to reflect the technological requirements of a neomercantilist, multipolar world. But in some ways, things will be better, even if that just means everything isn't so persistently queer as before. War is likely, and really we only need cut the college loan programs to force people back into the military.

The point of this long rambling TED blog is mostly to agree with posters like @Kuritan Deplorable - the weather report really only calls for moderate amounts of doom.

And if I never go to Ireland again it would not really be missed

 

[Male Idiot]

There are a lot of unlikely people in California who are already functionally self sufficient, as in they live normal lives with jobs but then go home and tend their chickens and massive container gardens, have no-waste practices, and could survive for quite a length of time right where they are. We're also warned to keep between three days and two weeks of supplies in case of major earthquakes, and I also have solar usb chargers and a few batteries I charge at night for blackouts.

None of this actually helps in case of a major structural collapse, like an airburst nuclear weapon. Luckily, almost nobody wants to be the one who sets off another aboveground nuke - we just recently became able to manufacture low background steel again, and any nuclear power who didn't bring their big boy balls to the MAD table would likely see popular overthrow of their government.

The current global situation is bad and getting worse, but I think the people who are calling this "the great reset" are huffing rainbows. There will be a shift in the global order. Deglobalization is happening- there's a bumper crop of wheat in Australia, and India has stopped wheat exports. Lumber prices are sinking. Persistent high oil prices are beginning to cause demand destruction in the US, and holiday shipments of goods are just now starting to arrive at Target from the massive port backups.

This is a recipe for mass unemployment, recession, and revaluation of commodities to reflect the technological requirements of a neomercantilist, multipolar world. But in some ways, things will be better, even if that just means everything isn't so persistently queer as before. War is likely, and really we only need cut the college loan programs to force people back into the military.

The point of this long rambling TED blog is mostly to agree with posters like @Kuritan Deplorable - the weather report really only calls for moderate amounts of doom.

And if I never go to Ireland again it would not really be missed

Just dunk a nigger in a white paint, give him green clothes and beer, and you got Saint Paddy folk 99% authentic there. If its some meth too he'll happily jump in the paint.

 

[Socrates]

uuuuuuuh so maybe I'm just being paranoid, but has anybody else been noticing an increase in the amount of gas stations straight up out of 87 grade fuel? Like it used to occasionally happen due to shipping error but never to the point where I see 2 or 3 of them clear their electronic price sign of the 87 price within a month of each other. Fluke or not it has definitely upgraded my mood from "bemused apathy" to "nervous laughter".

 

[the fall of man]

uuuuuuuh so maybe I'm just being paranoid, but has anybody else been noticing an increase in the amount of gas stations straight up out of 87 grade fuel? Like it used to occasionally happen due to shipping error but never to the point where I see 2 or 3 of them clear their electronic price sign of the 87 price within a month of each other. Fluke or not it has definitely upgraded my mood from "bemused apathy" to "nervous laughter".

Yes, some stations in Washington are reporting lack of supply in everythin but diesel.

 

[Socrates]

Yes, some stations in Washington are reporting lack of supply in everythin but diesel.

Washington state, I presume? That's... terrifying news. Think I'll be going to fill up today.

 

[Kramer on the phone]

I have a 20lb bag of ice party size bought last month now every fucking bag no where I go is now is now 16lbs . Some stores haven't even changed there signs yet. When did the ice company have time to change and reprint the fucking bags so quickly. more importantly now its impossible to find larger then 16lbs bags of ice . No 20-35-50 or 100lbs bags so now going out to buy an ice maker. And before any Niggercattle starts mooing at me about how its only ice get bent. If the fucking power goes again as it often does. It will it make that much harder to find large quantities of coolant for food storage

NGL this is the sort of silly story i'd see in The Outer Worlds, its absurd. the economy shit the bed so fast that the company that makes ice decided it was financially more viable to decrease the size to an uneven amount than increase the price. ice is now 20% harder to come by. Beyond that you buy ice so often that not only did you notice the change but also now feel justified buying an ice maker, a $150 dollar purchase, because it costs you 25% per capita buying ice from the store

One of the weirdest things about moving to Germany was how no Germans knew about or the value of cast iron cookware. I was insulted on a few occasions saying I was trying to larp as a peasant from 600 years ago, when honestly, cast iron is superior in several applications in the modern day. Bugmen everywhere.

to be fair, germany has been teaching the last 70 years that the "old ways" if thinking are evil and absurd and lead to bad outcomes. you're lucky they called you a peasant larper and not a nazi.

uuuuuuuh so maybe I'm just being paranoid, but has anybody else been noticing an increase in the amount of gas stations straight up out of 87 grade fuel? Like it used to occasionally happen due to shipping error but never to the point where I see 2 or 3 of them clear their electronic price sign of the 87 price within a month of each other. Fluke or not it has definitely upgraded my mood from "bemused apathy" to "nervous laughter".

no? but that'll never happen around here. too many elites around, they know there would be quite a lot of people willing to siphon their gas first if shit hit the fan that badly. theres never truely a gas shortage either, there's just an affordable gas shortage. if you're willing to pay $9/gal and have the numbers, you can just straight up order a tank truck to come by, not many places need or can use approx. 200 barrels of gas though. outside of say delivery companies, its not worth it to most places/businesses, and it would be insane for any civilian to do considering gas lasts like a month.

Having said that, if i were a smart business owner, that would be a newly added benefit for working here. I know companies reimburse for travel to and from work and will pay for bus passes and subway cards. This would just be taking it to the next logical conclusion.

 

[Blobby's Murder Knife]

No - because as I said, nobody would jump on those opportunities because nobody trusts that the governments would not punish them to hell and back for it later.

To be more specific, small moves such as pulling environmental sensors from vehicles would not alleviate the immense fuel costs that are going around, and more trucks on the road would make it worse. The shortages have gone well beyond a few pieces that could otherwise easily be pulled without affecting functionality. The production of these newer shortages cannot be bypassed (Diesel is not an optional part of a diesel truck), and setting up or stripping down facilities to produce cheaper gas by bypassing environmental regulations would be extremely expensive due to the sheer amount of infrastructure involved. Any repeals on those rules would eventually see the rules reinstated, and suddenly your diesel plant is incredibly illegal and will cost a fortune once more to bring back into spec, and all you got for it was selling gas at a cheaper price. Even if beyond that, you still wanted to do it, acquiring material to do the work is growing increasingly difficult. And then if you still slogged through, its very likely the next administration will go after these companies for a political win over the excessive environmental damage caused, by their claims.

Unfortunately, there are simply too many interlinked points in the failures at this point. Repealing one piece wouldn't alleviate anything, and repealing massive pieces would just be putting a gun to someones head and telling them "no its ok you can break into my house but *just until I change my mind*".

As an aside, a lot of those sensors have been 'deleted' anyway. They have a negative effect on engine performance and gas mileage (yeah...). The main selling point of the diesel I drive is all that shit has been ripped out, legal or not, who cares, it is in every ad for this vehicle because it drives like shit otherwise. It is all a scam anyway if most of us remember Dieselgate a few years back.