War Invasion of Ukraine News Megathread - Thread is only for articles and discussion of articles, general discussion thread is still in Happenings.

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President Joe Biden on Tuesday said that the United States will impose sanctions “far beyond” the ones that the United States imposed in 2014 following the annexation of the Crimean peninsula.

“This is the beginning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine,” Biden said in a White House speech, signaling a shift in his administration’s position. “We will continue to escalate sanctions if Russia escalates,” he added.

Russian elites and their family members will also soon face sanctions, Biden said, adding that “Russia will pay an even steeper price” if Moscow decides to push forward into Ukraine. Two Russian banks and Russian sovereign debt will also be sanctioned, he said.

Also in his speech, Biden said he would send more U.S. troops to the Baltic states as a defensive measure to strengthen NATO’s position in the area.

Russia shares a border with Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.

A day earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered troops to go into the separatist Donetsk and Lugansk regions in eastern Ukraine after a lengthy speech in which he recognized the two regions’ independence.

Western powers decried the move and began to slap sanctions on certain Russian individuals, while Germany announced it would halt plans to go ahead with the Russia-to-Germany Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

At home, Biden is facing bipartisan pressure to take more extensive actions against Russia following Putin’s decision. However, a recent poll showed that a majority of Americans believe that sending troops to Ukraine is a “bad idea,” and a slim minority believes it’s a good one.

All 27 European Union countries unanimously agreed on an initial list of sanctions targeting Russian authorities, said French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, and EU foreign affairs head Josep Borell claimed the package “will hurt Russia … a lot.”

Earlier Tuesday, Borell asserted that Russian troops have already entered the Donbas region, which comprises Donetsk and Lugansk, which are under the control of pro-Russia groups since 2014.

And on Tuesday, the Russian Parliament approved a Putin-back plan to use military force outside of Russia’s borders as Putin further said that Russia confirmed it would recognize the expanded borders of Lugansk and Donetsk.

“We recognized the states,” the Russian president said. “That means we recognized all of their fundamental documents, including the constitution, where it is written that their [borders] are the territories at the time the two regions were part of Ukraine.”

Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Putin said that Ukraine is “not interested in peaceful solutions” and that “every day, they are amassing troops in the Donbas.”

Meanwhile, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday morning again downplayed the prospect of a Russian invasion and proclaimed: “There will be no war.”

“There will not be an all-out war against Ukraine, and there will not be a broad escalation from Russia. If there is, then we will put Ukraine on a war footing,” he said in a televised address.

The White House began to signal that they would shift their own position on whether it’s the start of an invasion.

“We think this is, yes, the beginning of an invasion, Russia’s latest invasion into Ukraine,” said Jon Finer, the White House deputy national security adviser in public remarks. “An invasion is an invasion and that is what is underway.”

For weeks, Western governments have been claiming Moscow would invade its neighbor after Russia gathered some 150,000 troops along the countries’ borders. They alleged that the Kremlin would attempt to come up with a pretext to attack, while some officials on Monday said Putin’s speech recognizing the two regions was just that.

But Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters Tuesday that Russia’s “latest invasion” of Ukraine is threatening stability in the region, but he asserted that Putin can “still avoid a full blown, tragic war of choice.”

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Christ, you can't make this shit up:
https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1527366592668938250
(I don't know how to embed Twitter videos, sadly.)
Russian senator Frants Klintsevich has an ingenious new excuse for his country's slow progress in Ukraine He says Ukraine's army is "one of the strongest and best-trained" because it's comprised of "Russian soldiers and officers with exactly our mentality"
Somehow, the Russians have gone beyond mere cope into a state of existence words do not yet exist to describe.

And as is typical for me, a shitpost:
https://newsthump.com/2022/03/31/st...ough-to-become-a-general-in-the-russian-army/
 

Today was the Rammstein 2.0 NATO summit, a mo later from the first Rammstein meet.

Harpoons are nice, but range is under 100 nmi. A big issue right now Russia is blocking Ukrainian grain export. Some grain storage was destroyed, some grain was stolen and sent to Egypt to be sold (they refused) This goes to the fears that Ukrainian grain feeds a lot of people in Afrika/ME region and this may have consequences, possibly some more starvation and more refugees headed to EU.

Also the other big request was to get longer range missiles, up to 300km range and that doesn't seem to pan out, or at least no news on getting those.
 
Today was the Rammstein 2.0 NATO summit, a mo later from the first Rammstein meet.

Harpoons are nice, but range is under 100 nmi. A big issue right now Russia is blocking Ukrainian grain export. Some grain storage was destroyed, some grain was stolen and sent to Egypt to be sold (they refused) This goes to the fears that Ukrainian grain feeds a lot of people in Afrika/ME region and this may have consequences, possibly some more starvation and more refugees headed to EU.

Also the other big request was to get longer range missiles, up to 300km range and that doesn't seem to pan out, or at least no news on getting those.
The issues with those are a low number of launchers to start with, and concern by companies and nations that destruction could impact sales.

As is the Harpoons ensure the Russian navy won’t risk a landing for the time being.
 
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A big issue right now Russia is blocking Ukrainian grain export. Some grain storage was destroyed, some grain was stolen and sent to Egypt to be sold (they refused) This goes to the fears that Ukrainian grain feeds a lot of people in Afrika/ME region and this may have consequences, possibly some more starvation and more refugees headed to EU.
Do they not have hopper cars for their railroad or something? Can't they just ship grain via rail to Romania or someplace and load it on ships there?

I don't think the logistics of shipping is the actual issue here. It's the cost of shipping. Those countries buy their grain because it's cheap. If there are more handling charges from rail then they can't afford it.
 
at least he got a real casket, at this point families doesn't even bother with them at extra expense, heros get a plain pine box with shipping labels still attached.

View attachment 3311514

but things aren't so bad, finally after extensive volunteer work and generous donors, this wounded DNR soldier finally received a set of crutches.


View attachment 3311520

View attachment 3310578

The Russian military can't even get their shit together for a funeral. It's bad enough they can't even get buglers that aren't suffering from Parkinson's disease but the officers can't even render a decent salute. There probably isn't even a body in the casket.
I’ve said this before but seeing this and the shit funeral makes me pity the young men that die in fighting old men’s wars. Such a waste. That’s someone’s little boy there once. If he was Ukrainian at least he died defending his country.
 
Do they not have hopper cars for their railroad or something? Can't they just ship grain via rail to Romania or someplace and load it on ships there?

I don't think the logistics of shipping is the actual issue here. It's the cost of shipping. Those countries buy their grain because it's cheap. If there are more handling charges from rail then they can't afford it.
As you say, it's the problem with cost. Freight rails are more expensive simply because the amounts of good they can send in one trip is far lower than using cargo ships
 
Highly unlikely to be true.

They’re still at about 8 alleged, three or so confirmed.
3 the Russian’s have admitted to. Western Intelligence seems confident of 8, and suspects another 3. Not counting today’s flyboy. I’m doubtful just because no sane Military let’s a General fly combat missions… ever. This was a huge issue in WW2 when a number of low to mid tier General’s wanted to fly Bomber missions to get a better feel for the situations faced by the pilots, and were told unequivocally no by everyone up to and including the President.

Of course I’m not sure if sanity or intelligence actually apply to todays Russian Military? They might just be crazy enough to let a Major General fly a combat mission. I mean who in theater is going to tell him no? Odds are if he was flying he wasn’t flying sober.
 
I’m doubtful just because no sane Military let’s a General fly combat missions… ever.
>Russia
>Sane military

It's also worth noting that despite the issues in WW2 the USAF continued to let Generals fly combat missions even into the Vietnam war where they lost at least 3 I know of (2 Major Generals, and 1 Brigadier General. Of course that was 50+ years ago and they seem to have learned that lesson, and given how backwards Russia is I expect they'll be reaching the same conclusions the West did back then, any day year now.
 
Do they not have hopper cars for their railroad or something? Can't they just ship grain via rail to Romania or someplace and load it on ships there?

I don't think the logistics of shipping is the actual issue here. It's the cost of shipping. Those countries buy their grain because it's cheap. If there are more handling charges from rail then they can't afford it.

Your normal bulk grain carrier can manage 400,000+ tonnes of grain per run.

The longest train in the world, assuming you can even get that many grain freight cars together and the civil engineering of tracks and bridges can cope, is about a quarter that. On top of that, the Ukranians still have the legacy issue that a lot of states East of Warsaw do. The Russian awkward gauge of 5ft while most of western europe is running on the relatively global standard gauge of 4ft 8.5 inches. The Russians specifically went with this gauge for itself and among its vassals to make invasion difficult.

Ukranian grain trains could get as far as Slawkow before having to change completely.

I seem to recall reading one estimate putting it at about 100k tonnes/month could manage the rail-line
 
The Israelis already found out how the M60A3 fares against the T72, and the answer is "not very well". I would not bet the farm on the M60 against a peer opponent this year. Had anyone bought the M60-2000 (S120) update, which basically built an M1A1 around an M60 hull, that might be a good half-step. But, anyway, any M60s in the US have been stripped of usable parts and are being used to make reefs or as range targets, none are stored in any kind of serviceable condition. Turkey has a bunch, I think.

Iraqi and Saudi losses are due to neither of those armies understanding the concept of combined arms (come to think on it neither do the Russians it seems...where the fuck have their infantry screens been while their tanks are getting massacred by ATGM teams?). You roll hot with an armored company, you get 73 Easting. You charge your tanks line abreast into an entrenched enemy, you get what happens in Iraq and Yemen. I think the Ukrainians are smart enough to know what to not do...and would get very schooled by US instructors (not that they need it, mind, they're the ones fighting basically a conventional third world war right now). Of course part of the beauty of the M1 is ammo containment. You get a penetrating hit on a T-xx (don't care, anything from a T54 up to a T90) anywhere on a 270' frontal arc, and it's goodnight irene. On an M1, the only "kaboom" spot is the turret bustle, and the blast and fire are being contained, you rotate the turret 90' off center so it vents out into the air vs. fire getting sucked into the turbine and depending on conditions you can either wait it out or bail out, but believe it or not it's safer to wait it out.

If the powerpack and drivetrain are still operational, that tank is back in service in a day or two. It's a wonderful machine, it really is.
Tbf, the Marines used barely-upgraded M60A1s during their last hurrah in the Gulf War and they still did well enough against T-72s. It'd be far from ideal, but M60A3s with thermals and M833 APFSDS would almost certainly have first-shot advantage on most older Russian tanks (T-72As and below, at least). Would I be personally be comfortable sending anything less than M1A1s? Hell no, but it'd be no worse than the Leopard 1s the Germans are being gracious enough to send, and if the reports are true that the Russians have sent all their old T-90s and T-80s to soak up Ukrainian ammo so they can now send in their elite T-62s, the M60 would thrive in that environment. Granted, I'm taking that with a huge grain of salt until I start seeing T-62s pop up on Oryx.
 
Your normal bulk grain carrier can manage 400,000+ tonnes of grain per run.

The longest train in the world, assuming you can even get that many grain freight cars together and the civil engineering of tracks and bridges can cope, is about a quarter that. On top of that, the Ukranians still have the legacy issue that a lot of states East of Warsaw do. The Russian awkward gauge of 5ft while most of western europe is running on the relatively global standard gauge of 4ft 8.5 inches. The Russians specifically went with this gauge for itself and among its vassals to make invasion difficult.

Ukranian grain trains could get as far as Slawkow before having to change completely.

I seem to recall reading one estimate putting it at about 100k tonnes/month could manage the rail-line
I don't think the Black Sea runs as large of bulk carriers as you see elsewhere. Plus it's not like they fill the carriers directly from the trains. They have large grain terminals at the port facilities. Trains come from grain elevators in the interior to the port and offload into their storage which then goes onto the ships when they come in. This change means they instead head west from the elevators.

The bottleneck would likely be the at the break-of-gauge. Not internal rail capacity as that is what was already used to haul the grain to the port to begin with.
 
I don't think the Black Sea runs as large of bulk carriers as you see elsewhere. Plus it's not like they fill the carriers directly from the trains. They have large grain terminals at the port facilities. Trains come from grain elevators in the interior to the port and offload into their storage which then goes onto the ships when they come in. This change means they instead head west from the elevators.

The bottleneck would likely be the at the break-of-gauge. Not internal rail capacity as that is what was already used to haul the grain to the port to begin with.

The rail system is orientated towards the ports though. So it would be capacity and break of gauge. The Ukranians have begun running some corn and grain from some Romanian ports with the Romanians hastily repairing and upgrading long rotted lines from Ukraine to said ports to try and get stuff out to the markets before people begin to actively starve.

The problem is, and it's a big fucking problem, these shipments accounted for 71,000 tonnes and 80,000 tonnes respectively and are the first shipments from Ukraine since the war began. Even assuming those carriers are in the 100k-150k range... they're still leaving not full.

For context however.

Ukraine expanded its grain exports in 2018 to export some staggering 82 million tonnes of the stuff.

I am a little surprised the Ukranians haven't made recovering the southern/novorussiya area its priority.
 
Tbf, the Marines used barely-upgraded M60A1s during their last hurrah in the Gulf War and they still did well enough against T-72s. It'd be far from ideal, but M60A3s with thermals and M833 APFSDS would almost certainly have first-shot advantage on most older Russian tanks (T-72As and below, at least).

You know what, I completely forgot about that. Yes, the USMC -A1s did swimmingly although that might be down to quality of opponent and of APFSDS which by all accounts was absolute garbage. Something about the Iraqis using home-grown hardened steel not tungsten B3M shot (I think the Russian AP rounds are called?)
 
You know what, I completely forgot about that. Yes, the USMC -A1s did swimmingly although that might be down to quality of opponent and of APFSDS which by all accounts was absolute garbage. Something about the Iraqis using home-grown hardened steel not tungsten B3M shot (I think the Russian AP rounds are called?)
Sort of a misconception stemming from vatniks coping so hard about the Gulf War they claimed the Iraqis only had training rounds issued for their tanks; they had first and second generation 125mm BM9 and BM15 APFSDS (3BM denotes the entire shell as opposed to just the penetrator) which true, was incapable of dealing with Abrams at all but would be more than enough for an M60. And granted, the Iraqis were pretty garbage; while they did indeed use T-72s to good effect against Iranian M60s and Chieftains a decade earlier, it was against the post-revolution Iranian army managing to be even more retarded than the Iraqis and blundering their entire tank force into an extremely obvious ambush.
 
The problem is, and it's a big fucking problem, these shipments accounted for 71,000 tonnes and 80,000 tonnes respectively and are the first shipments from Ukraine since the war began. Even assuming those carriers are in the 100k-150k range... they're still leaving not full.
I think you are making a mistake in your thinking here. An assumption that Ukrainian grain is going to go the same way to the same people and if it is short then they are short. It won't work like that.

For example, you are assuming that they wouldn't just load Romanian grain to top those bulk cargo ships off. That isn't how it works. Shipments of grain are priced from port facilities. Whoever sent that ship there bought the grain at whatever the price was at that port in whatever amount. That it was super-special Ukrainian wheat was not part of the calculation. Wheat isn't graded like that. Them trying to punch through that rail line probably has more to do with getting grain to that port so it can be sold at a favorable price than other issues.

What I'm saying is that this is a trade realignment. Just like the oil thing. Europe could just sell off it's grain at higher rates from it's ports and reduce overseas imports and consume imported Ukrainian grain through the rail connections. Yeah, it's slower and not in as large of quantities at once. But if it matches consumption that isn't really a bad thing. The Ukrainians just have to sell at spot rate whenever the train arrives which is better than not getting anything and having it rot in the elevators.

How much can they push through is the question. They could probably swap some bogies and increase the Ukrainian hopper car fleet if needed so I don't consider rail capacity that a large of a problem. It's getting through the break-of-gauge that is the tricky part. It's more than what they are used to seeing. What can those facilities handle?
 
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