US US Politics General - Discussion of President Biden and other politicians

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whatever I feel like said:
Not even Rasmussen has him that low. If anything, I think his numbers are probably better than 538 is showing. There are a lot of libs/moderates who don't like him but will hold their noses and vote for him anyway (doubly so if Trump is his opponent) and an outsized amount of the daily polls are coming from one source, Rasmussen/POS. That matters because all of the poll-houses do their own internal response rating to try to estimate the true national attitude and then 538 tries to unbias them all to get a more realistic picture. But even with that unbiasing you still want a lot of sources being compared together, which they aren't currently getting.

Bear in mind that we are still 4 months away from midterms, 19 from pres. primaries and 28 from the pres. general election. The economy/inflation is going to make or, probably, break Biden day by day, week by week.
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The polling itself is indication of otherwise. The "media portmortum" from the 2020 election indicates that Biden overwhelmingly won 3rd party voters to narrowly flip key states to his column. Let's say thats true. He is now polling in the 20's with independants and even lower with the 3rd party voters. These people are non-affiliated with either party and thought Trump's Coof policy was a deal breaker. You're telling me that the economy going down the toilet day by day won't be a dealbreaker to them now that Covid is declared over?
 
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whatever I feel like said:
Not even Rasmussen has him that low. If anything, I think his numbers are probably better than 538 is showing. There are a lot of libs/moderates who don't like him but will hold their noses and vote for him anyway (doubly so if Trump is his opponent) and an outsized amount of the daily polls are coming from one source, Rasmussen/POS. That matters because all of the poll-houses do their own internal response rating to try to estimate the true national attitude and then 538 tries to unbias them all to get a more realistic picture. But even with that unbiasing you still want a lot of sources being compared together, which they aren't currently getting.

Bear in mind that we are still 4 months away from midterms, 19 from pres. primaries and 28 from the pres. general election. The economy/inflation is going to make or, probably, break Biden day by day, week by week.
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How can you still sniff Nate Copper's farts after his spectacular failures? You have not been outside if you don't think people are angry at Joe Biden. Not only has the bottom fell out on him with independents but with Hispanics too. Elections are about turn-out. They're not going to turn-out if they think president walking-zombie has stolen money from them, which is now the opinion of randos on the street who barely pay attention to politics.

No amount of cope will change this. The polling is absolutely underestimating how unpopular he is and even establishment dems know this since the polling is biased in FAVOR OF THEM and always has been. You may as well recreate that VR program where Hillary is president if you think this old fart has a political future. The dems aren't this stupid and won't put him on a ballot again. They've been loudly messaging as much as of this week. You don't even have to wait for it anymore. The media is running speculation that he won't to meme it into reality.

Biden is out of gas especially brain-wise. He only cares about his legacy as having been a president. I'm sure he doesn't even give enough of a crap to not be persuaded to not run again, because that way he won't have a defeat on his record if he just quits like he quit trying to fix anything in this bullshit administration.
 
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GuntPunt said:
The polling itself is indication of otherwise. The "media portmortum" from the 2020 election indicates that Biden overwhelmingly won 3rd party voters to narrowly flip key states to his column. Let's say thats true. He is now polling in the 20's with independants and even lower with the 3rd party voters. These people are non-affiliated with either party and thought Trump's Coof policy was a deal breaker. You're telling me that the economy going down the toilet day by day won't be a dealbreaker to them now that Covid is declared over?
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I mean, I think Trump was bad at covid, but I also think he was going to lose anyway due to his unpresidential demeanor. If anything, Covid threw him a lifeline, which he quickly threw away by, among other things, saying it would be over by Easter despite everyone damn well knowning it wouldn't be.
 
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Puff said:
What boggles my mind is what the fuck are they doing with the money they're taking out of the markets? I sure as shit wouldn't want to have all of my assets in USD right now.
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This is when you see the problem with leverage. A bunch of people and institutions who borrow essentially free money to fuck around with in the market are getting margin calls right now.

In order to make their margin calls whole, debtors are liquidating otherwise better assets. So the debt causes secondary instability also.

People scoff at my very boring “get rich incredibly slow” scheme of buying boring dividend-paying banks and energy companies and sitting on them for decades. But not today!
 
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Blake Chortles said:
Thats another big spike. I would consider getting out or reducing exposure to equities until we know if this (small) is another fear trade for the fomc. But honestly no matter what you do even cash is gonna get fucked.
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I'm a long way from retirement, so I'll be hodling my ETF shares that make up my Roth.
 
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Clockwork_PurBle said:
Now this I disagree with you on.
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They knew he was a corpse during the 2020 presidential cycle. The plan was always just push him over the finish line coasting on his attachment to Obama, worry about the shit show it will create later. They never planned on running this idiot again, and I'm still about 80 percent certain that will be the case. Their problem though is they were so stupid they bought into the idea that Harris could be a second bench when she's mainly where she is becuase California is a joke and she gave good blow jobs to her boss (literally, it's in the historical record).
 
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Flan Handler said:
This is when you see the problem with leverage. A bunch of people and institutions who borrow essentially free money to fuck around with in the market are getting margin calls right now.

In order to make their margin calls whole, debtors are liquidating otherwise better assets. So the debt causes secondary instability also.

People scoff at my very boring “get rich incredibly slow” scheme of buying boring dividend-paying banks and energy companies and sitting on them for decades. But not today!
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"Once again, the conservative-heavy sandwich portfolio pays off!"

-John Zoidberg M.D.?
 
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mandatorylurk said:
Hannity showing he's a fucking idiot like always:

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Glad to see bell-end moves by Mr. Tick-tock, but I feel as if this one ¾ Hannity and ¼ Tucker; where was Tuck on Hunter?

Mothra1988 said:
They knew he was a corpse during the 2020 presidential cycle. The plan was always just push him over the finish line coasting on his attachment to Obama, worry about the shit show it will create later. They never planned on running this idiot again, and I'm still about 80 percent certain that will be the case. Their problem though is they were so stupid they bought into the idea that Harris could be a second bench when she's mainly where she is becuase California is a joke and she gave good blow jobs to her boss (literally, it's in the historical record).
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Too bad that Biden is unironically their best candidate to field in 2024. Incumbent bonus is cope at this point, and even at this date, and I can't see a path for.

But if certain women want to move to the left of California and Vermont politically because of Drumpf, Republicucks, and affable grandpa veneer of Biden, be my guest.
 
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Mothra1988 said:
How can you still sniff Nate Copper's farts after his spectacular failures? You have not been outside if you don't think people are angry at Joe Biden. Not only has the bottom fell out on him with independents but with Hispanics too. Elections are about turn-out. They're not going to turn-out if they think president walking-zombie has stolen money from them, which is now the opinion of randos on the street who barely pay attention to politics.

No amount of cope will change this. The polling is absolutely underestimating how unpopular he is and even establishment dems know this since the polling is biased in FAVOR OF THEM and always has been. You may as well recreate that VR program where Hillary is president if you think this old fart has a political future. The dems aren't this stupid and won't put him on a ballot again. They've been loudly messaging as much as of this week. You don't even have to wait for it anymore. The media is running speculation that he won't to meme it into reality.

Biden is out of gas especially brain-wise. He only cares about his legacy as having been a president. I'm sure he doesn't even give enough of a crap to not be persuaded to not run again, because that way he won't have a defeat on his record if he just quits like he quit trying to fix anything in this bullshit administration.
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Silver has done far better than any individual polling firm over time. He gave Trump something like a thirty percent chance to win in 2016, far more than any other mainstream rater, and low and behold he did. That's like rolling a five or six on a dice, it's higher than you would predict but we'll within the realm of possibility, which he always pointed out. He gave Trump less of a chance to win in 2020 and in that case ended up being right.

As I said in the last post, not a single poll in either side has him in the twenties, which is where "lower than polling indicates" would have to put him. And as to impossible, don't ignore black swans, HW Bush shot up in the Gulf War, then plummeted in a ressession, his son sky rocketed post-9/11, Trump actually got to positive territory for like a day when Covid started, before opening his mouth and reminding people that he was incompetent. 29 months is a thousand eternities in politics and we don't know what the future holds.

What could save Biden's ratings and Democrats' chances? A Chinese economic collapse, a terrible Republican nominee, Democratic gaming of the system in regards to the EC, Trump running as an independent, some sort of Republican non-presidential scandal (remember that time in 2006 when Republicans lost the senate because a house member fucked his congressional page?), a war in South America, Chinese adventurism, a failed assassination attempt, a successful assassination attempt, him dieing of natural causes. Anything.
 
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