When I went hunting with my mortgage approval amount, I didn't play games. When an opportunity came up, I told my agent to shove all the chips onto the table. In the case of where I live now, that came out to $20,000 over asking price and no pre-sale inspection. Property "as is". The seller agreed 3 days later. Agent said I was nuts and would have to come down because there was no way the mortgage lender would agree once the assessment came back. Assessment said I had undervalued the property by $5,000. Lender agreed to close. A year later if zillow is to be believed the property is worth $25,000 more today then it was a year ago.
It really just underscores how absolutely insane the housing market is right now. And just how lucky I was. For one thing there was nothing majorly wrong with the property. The most I had to do was repair the AC/Heating unit. Also, the only reason I even shoved so aggressively was thanks to this shithole forum convincing me I needed to get out of my shitbox urban apartment post haste.
For those still trying to get out, it's not too late, yet. Provided you are willing to make some serious sacrifices vis a vis location. You will have to buy out in bumfuck nowhere or the ghetto to get a reasonable price. Though at this point wait and see may also serve you well. Mortgage rates have actually gone down recently due to crashing demand for mortgages. Really strong bubble popping indicators when it comes to real estate.
It's an interesting time. I believe the odds are very good we'll see ~20% reductions in prices for the majority of markets, and maybe around ~30% for the heavy overvalued markers like Boise, Dallas, most of Florida, etc. The primary driving force being the decrease in demand, which will likely wipe out any of the "covid gains." This definitely won't be a repeat of 2008 though. The market is healthier than its been for a long time, and lending standards have only gotten stricter (don't think I've seen anybody get an ARM since like 2010 lol).
That being said, mortgage rates are only going to increase to combat double digit inflation. Simultaneously, rent is only going to keep increasing as a result, likely keeping demand for homes high (not 2020/21 high but still higher than average).
I find it unlikely that rates will be dropping in the next 5 years or so (but could be wrong), so no matter what you'll get buttfucked, whether or not you overpaid, or interest will rape you. However, any corrections in the market will likely rebound way faster than 2008, as there isn't a subprime crisis or underlying housing issues this time around. Just a massively skewed supply and demand. This will allow you to sell and/or refinance hopefully within 5-10 years, only if need be of course. Plus, supply overall has still not recovered from the housing crisis, which was one of the variables in homes becoming so expensive in the past decade.
All in all, don't worry about timing the market. If you want to buy a house and you are financially and mentally ready, go for it. Houses are long term investments, and unless you know exactly what you're doing (you probably don't) you shouldn't be purchasing a home unless you wish to stay in it for at least 5 years. Preferably more than 10 if the market so deems it.
As an aside, I bought my second home in early 2007 (yikes). Needless to say, my ass got fried. But I still own it, its worth ~$50k more than I bought it for, and it's almost paid off. Yeah, I could have gotten a better deal, but I'm not going to be a sulky little bitch about it. Just buy and hold.
Anyway, sorry for the ramble, I'm old and tired.
