Debate why the United States will/won't continue to be the sole hegemon for the rest of the century

[kartofel]

How would Russia survive if China collapses and they go apeshit? They almost went to nuclear war with each other in the late 1960s and China has legitimate claims on Russian territory due to the unequal treaties.

It isn't the 60s anymore. The Russians and Chinese sat down and hammered out all their border disputes in the late 90s and early 2000s. The USSR's collapse also removed the pissing match over who had a better form of communism. They don't really have anything to fight over at this point. If anything, America's retarded foreign policy decisions have basically pushed them together and they are both far more worried about America than they are about each other.

Lets say some crazy shit happens and China for some reason becomes a problem. One of the obvious outcomes of a Chinese
collapse is a food shortage since they don't make enough themselves and won't have the money to import it easily anymore. Russia could easily pick a friendly faction, give them cheap food and they will come out on top because all the other factions are starving to death. It is somewhat similar to what they are doing to Europe right now, only with something even more vital than natural gas. If it comes to force, nothing is going to happen because the Russians have nukes. Even if we limit things to conventional arms, the Chinese can't really do anything to the Russians. Trying to zerg rush Siberia will only end with millions of dead Chinese. The Russian military will kill a ton of them, and the ones the Russian army doesn't get will freeze to death. Siberia is a desolate, frozen wasteland. It is sparsely populated because living there sucks. Half of the population was put there by the Tsars and Soviets as a punishment and their descendants are just too poor to leave. The main resource the Chinese would really need, ie food, is mainly produced in European Russia, so it isn't something they can sieze in a quick strike either.

This is all a daydream though. Neither the Russian nor Chinese governments want to cause problems with each other. China is worried about their coastline and enduring another century of destruction/humiliation from foreign naval powers. That and Taiwan are why they are focusing heavily on their navy right now. Russia is concerned about NATO encroachment on their western and southern borders. Both feel threatened by the US and friends, so they see each other as natural allies at this point.

 

[The Foxtrot]

It isn't the 60s anymore. The Russians and Chinese sat down and hammered out all their border disputes in the late 90s and early 2000s. The USSR's collapse also removed the pissing match over who had a better form of communism. They don't really have anything to fight over at this point. If anything, America's retarded foreign policy decisions have basically pushed them together and they are both far more worried about America than they are about each other.

Lets say some crazy shit happens and China for some reason becomes a problem. One of the obvious outcomes of a Chinese
collapse is a food shortage since they don't make enough themselves and won't have the money to import it easily anymore. Russia could easily pick a friendly faction, give them cheap food and they will come out on top because all the other factions are starving to death. It is somewhat similar to what they are doing to Europe right now, only with something even more vital than natural gas. If it comes to force, nothing is going to happen because the Russians have nukes. Even if we limit things to conventional arms, the Chinese can't really do anything to the Russians. Trying to zerg rush Siberia will only end with millions of dead Chinese. The Russian military will kill a ton of them, and the ones the Russian army doesn't get will freeze to death. Siberia is a desolate, frozen wasteland. It is sparsely populated because living there sucks. Half of the population was put there by the Tsars and Soviets as a punishment and their descendants are just too poor to leave. The main resource the Chinese would really need, ie food, is mainly produced in European Russia, so it isn't something they can sieze in a quick strike either.

This is all a daydream though. Neither the Russian nor Chinese governments want to cause problems with each other. China is worried about their coastline and enduring another century of destruction/humiliation from foreign naval powers. That and Taiwan are why they are focusing heavily on their navy right now. Russia is concerned about NATO encroachment on their western and southern borders. Both feel threatened by the US and friends, so they see each other as natural allies at this point.

Not to mention, economically, China and the West are in a Mexican Standoff with each other as well. We depend on China for our "Fast and Cheap" consumer goods, China relies on us for food. Neither of us can "decouple" from the other without some serious repercussions which neither of us are prepared to face. A bad famine would mean the end of the CCP, while losing out on Chinese manufacturing would mean a LOT of people in the West suddenly don't have day-to-day essential groceries.

Russia is in no such dilemma. They have domestic manufacturing and resource extraction that is independent of the West. We've had Russia "under sanctions" since the 1940s, almost no Russian-made goods are sold in the West, so the current round of "sanctions" is as effective as SJWs "boycotting" a game they were never going to buy anyway. Hell, the Russians choosing to not sell oil to the West is fucking us over, and Western Europe's about to be really fucking cold this winter.

 

[FatmanFatfist]

I'm just waiting to see which country has the resources & power to catch up. I hope it's India if we go by population, the country and people can be retarded like all countries but there's effort being put in and I'm not learning mandarin.

India is almost a lost cause. Its Archaic social system is holding back the country from developing more thoughtfully. Also Just from a diplomatic standpoint, they are extremely weak. Too much of their energy is spent on Pakistan. And they don't do anything too alleviate it, they choose not too ally themselves with anybody out of ego. And they haven't done anything to create an anti china confederacy with the south Asian states. Its actually very depressing because India does have the potential too be a huge check on china.

 

[urr13 account]

I think we're moving toward what will effectivley be a one-world government, but I don't think it will ever be officially declared as such. It'll just be a case where every world leader is all a part of the WEF (or some other group of retards) and are all following the same script.

The U.S. will be a figurehead, elections will be meaningless, and the President will have about as much say over what happens in the U.S. as the Queen has over England.

 

[FatmanFatfist]

Not to mention, economically, China and the West are in a Mexican Standoff with each other as well. We depend on China for our "Fast and Cheap" consumer goods, China relies on us for food. Neither of us can "decouple" from the other without some serious repercussions which neither of us are prepared to face. A bad famine would mean the end of the CCP, while losing out on Chinese manufacturing would mean a LOT of people in the West suddenly don't have day-to-day essential groceries.

Russia is in no such dilemma. They have domestic manufacturing and resource extraction that is independent of the West. We've had Russia "under sanctions" since the 1940s, almost no Russian-made goods are sold in the West, so the current round of "sanctions" is as effective as SJWs "boycotting" a game they were never going to buy anyway. Hell, the Russians choosing to not sell oil to the West is fucking us over, and Western Europe's about to be really fucking cold this winter.

Russia has whether sanction well enough. I don't know if that what Russia wants vs what Putin wants. And its hard too imagine them isolating themselves this much without him at the helm. Lots of Russian oligarchs don't really care about Putin's adventurism.

 

[YourFriendlyLurker]

China - nah, they are too clever and understand who they are. China has always been an expansionist force in its history, they have always lived inside their "inner empire" and were ok with that stautus. Also, they have a very specific culture to become a world hegemon and culture is an important part of so-called "soft-power". Finally there is a problem of middle class in China because if you wanna have an internal market you need relatively rich middle class. And middle class tends to eventually want some freedeoms which are no-go for CCP. Dunno how they are going to solve that but I don't think they can.

Russia - it has great potential and could become a hegemon but I'd say nah because of general day-to-day degradation and terrific demographics. It simply has nothing to give the world aside from old soviet nukes, oil, and gas.

EU - lol nah. They are "old world" with their glory days way behind them.

India - fuck knows honestly. The same issue with specific culture and super poor population.

Muslim world - 100% lolcow countries except for maybe Turkey.

Japan - fucking small, also depopulation.

For the US itself, it will remain hegemon if it doesn't fall to a civil war which with each year seems to be more and more real. The country is divided as fuck and I don't see how it can be avoided.

Conclusion? VIA VATICAN!

 

[Ishtar]

Serious response:

While there are a lot of problems, the Us is a vast country with a large pool of competent(White) men and women who can be trusted to steer ZOG’s ship for a long time to come. The loot and graft of the White middle classes and the eventual disintegration will be an ongoing process that takes decades.

During this time China will have to:

Build a blue water navy, get respectable combat experience for its army which hasn’t had any in nearly fifty years, and somehow bring Europe to heel which at the moment still licks American boot.

Russia: Declining population, will spend years rebuilding their military even if they achieve some sort of victory in Ukraine. Possible power struggle when Putin dies.

Europe: Europe often talks about an independent foreign policy and a unified army. This never happens, as it would involve a break with the United States. And the Atlanticist ideology permeates EU ruling circles, so it’s unlikely that will happen. Also African and Arab migration will result in the decline in living standards.

All of this is an ongoing process of decades, I do not foresee the Us ever totally collapsing barring an unforeseen event, it may remain as a Brazil or South America tier dysfunctional shit hole with gated communities of the affluent for a very long time; thus the US will not cease to be a superpower in my view for this reason until end of century, perhaps a few decades later. Beyond that’s its impossible to predict. China and India could have a nuclear war, or China could colonize all of Asian Russia. Or really anything.

 

[Raoul_Duke]

Serious response:

While there are a lot of problems, the Us is a vast country with a large pool of competent(White) men and women who can be trusted to steer ZOG’s ship for a long time to come. The loot and graft of the White middle classes and the eventual disintegration will be an ongoing process that takes decades.

During this time China will have to:

Build a blue water navy, get respectable combat experience for its army which hasn’t had any in nearly fifty years, and somehow bring Europe to heel which at the moment still licks American boot.

Russia: Declining population, will spend years rebuilding their military even if they achieve some sort of victory in Ukraine. Possible power struggle when Putin dies.

Europe: Europe often talks about an independent foreign policy and a unified army. This never happens, as it would involve a break with the United States. And the Atlanticist ideology permeates EU ruling circles, so it’s unlikely that will happen. Also African and Arab migration will result in the decline in living standards.

All of this is an ongoing process of decades, I do not foresee the Us ever totally collapsing barring an unforeseen event, it may remain as a Brazil or South America tier dysfunctional shit hole with gated communities of the affluent for a very long time; thus the US will not cease to be a superpower in my view for this reason until end of century, perhaps a few decades later. Beyond that’s its impossible to predict. China and India could have a nuclear war, or China could colonize all of Asian Russia. Or really anything.

The British thought they'd continue on as an Imperial power from 1900 to the beginning of the millennium. Perhaps truncated a bit, but still a great power. Didn't turn out well.

Might turn out the same for us here.

 

[Ishtar]

The British thought they'd continue on as an Imperial power from 1900 to the beginning of the millennium. Perhaps truncated a bit, but still a great power. Didn't turn out well.

Might turn out the same for us here.

That is true but there are some crucial differences. The destruction of the two world wars, the pressures of decolonialism(and the expenditures in the creation of the welfare state), and the fact the Us openly backed free trade policies to further hasten the empire’s decline.

There is no similar force that could do the same with the US. The Chinese don’t have the economic power to shut out American corporate and market influence, nor the military power to challenge American hegemony directly. At most they could drive the US out of Asia, or east Asia anyway. Maybe. Actually the East Asian littoral.

The United States’ cultural influence in some ways has never been stronger, every country that decriminalizes sodomy and supports trannies does so because the state department made it happen.

Whatever you might say about our current ruling class-they have an actual ideology even if that ideology is just worship of blacks and gays and troons. And it’s an ideology Europe and other vassals emulate/imitate. The Chinese have no such thing, beyond “let’s just do business”.

American military power will likely decline and I think the US has fought its real last ground war, but I don’t see the American empire actually collapsing anytime soon. And by not collapse-all you need is for foreign elites to support it by legalizing “gay marriage” and troon rights, there is no need for mass buy in. Someone also has to protect global shipping, and I don’t see the Chinese stepping up for that for another century if ever.

 

[SBG]

The US has one of the strongest economies around that others end up sucked into hanging on.

Places like China theoretically could displace the US, but they're corrupt enough they keep fucking efforts that could make it a reality. I think it was Russia that loaned some money to China for an infrastructure development as part of BRICS and then when it was time to pay China went "lolno". So the idea of doing international loans with those countries went right out the window. They'll still do business with each other, but it's more competitive than cooperative.

Beauty of the US is people want to base businesses here or keep their money in dollars for the stability it can offer. There are billionaires that even hide their money away in the US rather than in the Caribbean or in Swiss bank accounts, because the US is just that nice for storing your money (also there's more privacy for goofy reasons). No one is thinking "ah fuck I need to protect my money by getting it in a Chinese bank" and no one is likely to think that in our lifetimes.

 

[Johnny Eastwood cash]

My best guess is France

 

[Ewan McGregor]

- China: If they manage to get out of the big shit they are in right now, they may stand a chance. However, China as it currently stands doesn't have what it takes to be a single hegemon the way the US has been.

- India: Incredibly fucked up country. They are a more dynamic society than China but they neither have what it takes to lead the international community. As it currently stands it's a huge paper tiger.

- Federalized Yurop: Never happening. Next.

- Russia: They have proven to be both not as powerful as everybody imagined AND more resilient than expected. Pretty much suffers from the same problems as India and China.

- Brazil: Nope.

- Some African: Nigeria is on its way to become a regional power, but it's far from achieving world power status.

- UK: Lol no

- Japan: That ship sailed away.

- Mexico: Mexico stands a serious chance to lead on the spanish speaking world for the foreseeable future, out of all of the countries of this list it is the one with a brighter future. But they have a tendency to fuck up their chances so who knows.

- Singapore: Too small.