Russian Invasion of Ukraine Megathread - Episode III - Revenge of the Ruski (now unlocked with new skins and gameplay modes!!!)

[mindlessobserver]

Definitely, this entire war will be studied for generations. This is the first conventional war fought between two comparable, modern forces on a total war scale. Considering the last one somewhat comparable was Korea there will be a lot of knowledge gained by both sides.

One thing I've wondered about in hindsight is if the plan was for Belarus to enter the war at the same time, invading alongside the Russian forces from its territory.

I don't think so. Belarus was the Kuwait for Russias invasion here. It was to serve as a jumping off point and supply hub, but not a participant. Russia needed Belarus if it wanted to hit Kiev in the first week.

The problem is they didn't bother to read a map. The only direct route between Kiev and Belarus was right through the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone.

Needless to say, this is not a very well maintained or large road.

So the Belarus launched forces got bogged down in the largest extant wilderness left on the European continent while another offensive raced from a thousand Kilometers from Russia proper to hit Kiev from the East.

In the interim the entire Northern front got stuck in a traffic jam, and the two weeks it took to sort everything out were fatal because Ukraine was given time to mobilize the capital region territorial guards, along with the absolute elite of the Ukrainian Army, the Presidential guards regiment and the Kiev military command. Once Russia had finally gotten its shit together it ran smack into a buzz saw, and without any railroads in the area had no way to feed or arm its forces.

It wasn't that they didn't have the manpower and equipment for a siege. They didn't have the food, fuel or ammo for a siege. So after 4 weeks of fighting they had no choice but to retreat.

 

[Beak Thing]

I don't think so. Belarus was the Kuwait for Russias invasion here. It was to serve as a jumping off point and supply hub, but not a participant. Russia needed Belarus if it wanted to hit Kiev in the first week.

The problem is they didn't bother to read a map. The only direct route between Kiev and Belarus was right through the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone.

Needless to say, this is not a very well maintained or large road.

So the Belarus launched forces got bogged down in the largest extant wilderness left on the European continent while another offensive raced from a thousand Kilometers from Russia proper to hit Kiev from the East.

In the interim the entire Northern front got stuck in a traffic jam, and the two weeks it took to sort everything out were fatal because Ukraine was given time to mobilize the capital region territorial guards, along with the absolute elite of the Ukrainian Army, the Presidential guards regiment and the Kiev military command. Once Russia had finally gotten its shit together it ran smack into a buzz saw, and without any railroads in the area had no way to feed or arm its forces.

It wasn't that they didn't have the manpower and equipment for a siege. They didn't have the food, fuel or ammo for a siege. So after 4 weeks of fighting they had no choice but to retreat.

This is really incredible...how did they not consider this? Wasn't the entirety of Soviet land battle doctrine focused on a war against NATO fought starting in East Germany, of which the UkrSSR was an absolutely essential logistical corridor to the Warsaw Pact and critical to Soviet defense?

Ukraine had also not recovered appreciably in an economic or demographic sense from its level during the Soviet era, so they probably had knowledge of the infrastructure that was more than reasonably accurate based upon even late Soviet sources, let alone what could have been observed over the past 31 years.

 

[UVB-76]

This is really incredible...how did they not consider this? Wasn't the entirety of Soviet land battle doctrine focused on a war against NATO fought starting in East Germany, of which the UkrSSR was an absolutely essential logistical corridor to the Warsaw Pact and critical to Soviet defense?

Ukraine had also not recovered appreciably in an economic or demographic sense from its level during the Soviet era, so they probably had knowledge of the infrastructure that was more than reasonably accurate based upon even late Soviet sources, let alone what could have been observed over the past 31 years.

Two things worth considering:
- The Russian military is not the Soviet military. The Russian military realized they didn't have the budget to keep both the nukes and the army, so they allowed the ground forces to rot a little while spending money on the strategic rocket forces. When their economy recovered they started to reform the military but this had setbacks - the higher ups were opposed to change, Russia couldn't commit to a full profissional force, but they also allowed a lot of the Soviet-era mobilization infrastructure to decay. This lead to the half-measure they have now - every man 18-27 is called to serve a year but the technical/specialized jobs are done by professionals under contract. So in peacetime they have their units manned by a skeleton crew of kontraktniki who should be able to handle small scale conflicts but in case of war the mobilization will fill the less demanding positions with conscripts and reservists. Russia went into Ukraine with this skeleton crew of professionals, boosted by a few conscripts who were "pressured" to sign contracts at the last minute.
- The intelligence was piss poor. Either the SBU did the best counter-espionage ever or the GRU was pocketing all the money while jacking off and saying "Ukraine is weak". It was probably a little bit of both. The knowledge of the infrastructure was hindered by the fact that they went into Ukraine with maps printed in the 1960s-1970s so the Chernobyl exclusion zone wasn't even marked. Stuff they observed was rendered moot when the US tipped off the Ukrainian forces and told them to hide aircraft and anti-air systems at the last minute, so long range missiles didn't hit their targets. And the worst of all, the Russian intelligence lead the government into believing that the Ukrainian forces would lay down their weapons and the civilians welcome the Russian soldiers. That's why they even sent riot troops rolling into Ukraine, they expected to take Kiev with little resistance and then only have to deal with a few protesters. I even heard that Valerii Zaluzhnyi purposefully created an image of being a lazy goofball to keep the Russians' guard down but he turned out to be a ruthless motherfucker who spent the last years preparing to fuck up the invading force.

 

[Beak Thing]

- The intelligence was piss poor. Either the SBU did the best counter-espionage ever or the GRU was pocketing all the money while jacking off and saying "Ukraine is weak". It was probably a little bit of both. The knowledge of the infrastructure was hindered by the fact that they went into Ukraine with maps printed in the 1960s-1970s so the Chernobyl exclusion zone wasn't even marked. Stuff they observed was rendered moot when the US tipped off the Ukrainian forces and told them to hide aircraft and anti-air systems at the last minute, so long range missiles didn't hit their targets. And the worst of all, the Russian intelligence lead the government into believing that the Ukrainian forces would lay down their weapons and the civilians welcome the Russian soldiers. That's why they even sent riot troops rolling into Ukraine, they expected to take Kiev with little resistance and then only have to deal with a few protesters. I even heard that Valerii Zaluzhnyi purposefully created an image of being a lazy goofball to keep the Russians' guard down but he turned out to be a ruthless motherfucker who spent the last years preparing to fuck up the invading force.

That's really incredible...maps from the 60's? Brezhnev was Ukrainian and he invested an enormous amount in the UkrSSR's industry, agriculture, cities, and infrastructure during his teure. I have no idea how any adult alive since 1978 to present would not know about the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant's location even if their map was from the Khruschev era.

And "welcomed by liberators"...no way, not in a million years. How could they be so ignorant of history?

I could absolutely believe pretending to be a goofball to keep the enemy's guard down while you prepare in secret. It has worked many times in history and is classic maskirovka. No idea if it's true but there are plenty of stranger stories in history. In any case, things seem to have been lined up in such a way that it's working out very well now.

 

[TheDarknessGrows]

Russia is winning this.

 

[UVB-76]

That's really incredible...maps from the 60's? Brezhnev was Ukrainian and he invested an enormous amount in the UkrSSR's industry, agriculture, cities, and infrastructure during his teure. I have no idea how any adult alive since 1978 to present would not know about the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant's location even if their map was from the Khruschev era.

And "welcomed by liberators"...no way, not in a million years. How could they be so ignorant of history?

I could absolutely believe pretending to be a goofball to keep the enemy's guard down while you prepare in secret. It has worked many times in history and is classic maskirovka. No idea if it's true but there are plenty of stranger stories in history. In any case, things seem to have been lined up in such a way that it's working out very well now.

Yeah the maps were so outdated that there were towns and water reservoirs that weren't even marked because they were built in the 70s.

Regarding the plant, the Russian forces had the seizure of Chernobyl as one of their objectives so they knew where it was, the issue was the exclusion zone. There's probably several factors at play such as soldiers knowing they were seizing a plant not knowing it was the most famous nuclear plant in the world, and NCOs/junior officers knowing it was Chernobyl they were dealing with, but not understanding the cleanup that had been done.

So they dug revetments and trenches into the soil... I knew from documentaries and the real life "stalkers" that tour the zone that the soil had been turned over so you don't dig around Chernobyl, I can see how 18-19 year old soldiers following orders would do that if they never looked into this kind of stuff. I bet that most people who learned of the soil thing was from the 2019 series, which is pretty recent.

Russia is winning this.

 

[TheDarknessGrows]

Russia is punching the shit out of that guy YEAH!!

 

[Darkholme's Dungeon]

Holy shit we come back and this is absolute hilarity.
I just want to wonder, how much shit did Russia really "loose" via corruption?

New poll should ask:
How well will this counteroffensive end?
1)Ukraine looses all gains and collapses
2) Current Status Quo (as of today)
3) status quo ante bellum
4) Regains all of Ukraine
5) Z man refounds the Kievan Rus

 

[Beak Thing]

Yeah the maps were so outdated that there were towns and water reservoirs that weren't even marked because they were built in the 70s.
View attachment 3718446

That is simply mind-blowing, these are not minor details...did they follow the 1960s routes and run into the reservoirs and small towns rather than ignore the main route which had been built to the west?

God, these guys were being sent into a slaughter.

Regarding the plant, the Russian forces had the seizure of Chernobyl as one of their objectives so they knew where it was, the issue was the exclusion zone. There's probably several factors at play such as soldiers knowing they were seizing a plant not knowing it was the most famous nuclear plant in the world, and NCOs/junior officers knowing it was Chernobyl they were dealing with, but not understanding the cleanup that had been done.

So they dug revetments and trenches into the soil... I knew from documentaries and the real life "stalkers" that tour the zone that the soil had been turned over so you don't dig around Chernobyl, I can see how 18-19 year old soldiers following orders would do that if they never looked into this kind of stuff. I bet that most people who learned of the soil thing was from the 2019 series, which is pretty recent.

I can't imagine how callous you have to be to give an order like that to men under your command,. I find it hard to believe nobody higher up in the chain of command knew what the objective was at that stage of the invasion and what a danger it could pose to the deployed forces if they disturbed the soil in that area.

Also lol, was that a Hungarian volunteer with an inverted flag in the meme alongside the UAF to disguise them as Iranian? It is hilarious people think Hungary of all nations would ever side with Russia on anything, period.

 

[Darkholme's Dungeon]

I can't imagine how callous you have to be to give an order like that to men under your command,. I find it hard to believe nobody higher up in the chain of command knew what the objective was at that stage of the invasion and what a danger it could pose to the deployed forces if they disturbed the soil in that area

Soviet doctrine says hello. Welcome to the eternal power struggle between Party (Oligarchs and co), the military (RUAF), and the spooks (FSB).

Edit: The maps thing is not the first time. During the Sino-Vietnamese "border skirmishes" (border war), they were using people who couldn't fucking read maps or use a compass. The Chinese seem to learn from their mistakes better.

 

[Beak Thing]

Soviet doctrine says hello. Welcome to the eternal power struggle between Party (Oligarchs and co), the military (RUAF), and the spooks (FSB).

No wonder Stalin managed to win WWII. He shot all of the first and most of the last, and let the middle handle things.

Edit: The maps thing is not the first time. During the Sino-Vietnamese "border skirmishes" (border war), they were using people who couldn't fucking read maps or use a compass. The Chinese seem to learn from their mistakes better.

I will say China is a nation that is slow to change when things are deteriorating gradually but they are faster than light when they fuck up really badly.

 

[Mr E. Grifter]

You're only making presumtions, Russia still has tons of equipment and those that are being sent are reservists, not armed civilians.

Morale is difficult to put in a metric and you have to go through 10 filters of propaganda to know what the hell is going on so tell me next year if your presumtions on morale are ultimately correct.

Reports of them being anyone are aplenty, and when we look at what reservists in Russia are it's anyone with any amount of service history. BARS, their actual reservists, are already deployed. Some of these "reservists" haven't touched a weapon in years, maybe over a decade, and skill fade would make them green as anything. Plus, the nature of their training first time around may have been minimalist - conscripts in Russia are hardly the cream of the crop.

As for equipment, you're kidding right? They are suggesting those called up bring tampons because they lack field dressings. You see Russians suggest they attach field tourniquets using cable ties to stop them being stolen (good luck getting them off when you need to put one on your blown off leg). Russia might keep large stocks of weapons and vehicles, but they sure as fuck do not maintain them sufficiently.

Is my take on moral a presumption? Ukraine has had that many volunteers that they have postponed their last round of calling up conscripts as they have enough men under arms. Reports early on showed a willingness for people to join and fight with TDFs even after they had taken heavy casualties. In Russia they struggled to recruit, after straining their professional forces to the limit, calling up actual reserves, conscripting old cripples in DPR and LPR, and attempting to recruit prisoners they had to call a mobilisation of "reservists" (which aren't actually reservists) which caused hundreds of thousands of Russians to flee the fucking country because they don't want to have their limbs shot off for a war they don't care about.

We can come back in a year, I'll still be right. Like I was right about Ukraine being better positioned to win this war in the Medium - Long Term and here we are in the medium term and Ukraine is beating Russia on almost every front with the exception of Bakmut where Russia continue to take entire meters of a ground for heavy losses.

 

[UVB-76]

Also lol, was that a Hungarian volunteer with an inverted flag in the meme alongside the UAF to disguise them as Iranian? It is hilarious people think Hungary of all nations would ever side with Russia on anything, period.

Chechen flag patch, worn by the Kadyrovites who assist the Russian forces.
Chechen volunteers fighting for Ukraine wear the Republic of Ichkeria patch.

 

[mindlessobserver]

This is really incredible...how did they not consider this? Wasn't the entirety of Soviet land battle doctrine focused on a war against NATO fought starting in East Germany, of which the UkrSSR was an absolutely essential logistical corridor to the Warsaw Pact and critical to Soviet defense?

Ukraine had also not recovered appreciably in an economic or demographic sense from its level during the Soviet era, so they probably had knowledge of the infrastructure that was more than reasonably accurate based upon even late Soviet sources, let alone what could have been observed over the past 31 years.

That's the worst part. They DID Consider it! Why do you think there are so many VDV memes today? In the opening days of the Battle of Kiev, Russia unleashed an Air Assault on Hostomel and Antonov Airports. In the case of Hostomel they won, but Antonov was an absolute fiasco. By all accounts the local territorial guards were made up of local Gopnik gangs who joined with the airports security guards to defeat the vaunted Spetznaz.

Russia needed the Antonov Airport because they knew they did not have the logistic capability to support a protracted campaign in the Kiev region. When they failed to take it however, they didn't stop. They kept going and tried to adjust.

But you can't just adjust a plan around a critical failure point. It's what led to the shrieks about Russian troops digging trenches in the chernobyl exclusion zone. Russia had an overly complicated invasion plan with no wiggle room for change based on changing circumstances. So they just kept funneling forces down that shitty two Lane highway to Kiev.

 

[Mr E. Grifter]

Your viewpoint is that "if any country, anywhere, attacks any other country, than every uninvolved country can freely enter the conflict in some way and it's not an escalation". That's flat out bullshit and now how international politics work.

With the caveat that the means used by those intervening do not extend beyond that of the invader, then that is a fair statement of my point. It's not an escalation, because the situation was already escalated by the aggressor to it's current state.

It's funny that you're saying it's not how international politics works, because it absolutely is - nations have a right to self defense, collective defense and the right to defend other nations from aggression in accordance with the UN Charter. The fact Ukraine isn't NATO isn't actually relevant.

 

[Beak Thing]

Spectacularly informative, both of you UVB-76 and mindlessobserver...thank you.

 

[Darkholme's Dungeon]

I will say China is a nation that is slow to change when things are deteriorating gradually but they are faster than light when they fuck up really badly.

Chinese history is a cycle of idiots ushering in a completely balls to the wall era of suffering and violence, but ironically also new thought and progress. The warlord era does break the "bad times = tech innovation" because there is so much needed for modern science.

Take for example:
Spring and Autumn
Warring States
Three Kingdoms
Sixteen Kingdoms
Northern and Southern Dynasties
Five Dynasties and Ten Kingdoms
Southern Song
Warlord era

Only in the bleakest of winters will one take mind of a beautiful bloom of orchids the following spring.

 

[mindlessobserver]

Not to be poetic, but I think the worst nuclear disaster in human history probably saved Ukraine in the opening days of the war. The Chernobyl exclusion zone was a "natural" barrier that shielded Kiev to the North, and Russia could not get past it in a timely manner.

God works in mysterious ways.

 

[Darkholme's Dungeon]

But you can't just adjust a plan around a critical failure point. It's what led to the shrieks about Russian troops digging trenches in the chernobyl exclusion zone. Russia had an overly complicated invasion plan with no wiggle room for change based on changing circumstances. So they just kept funneling forces down that shitty two Lane highway to Kiev.

Does the winter war ring a bell? Remember how originally they tried to one up fall Weiss, fall Gelb and fall Rot with multiple co-centric operations against Finland, and then regrouped and brute forced it's way through the Karelian Isthmus.
That was when the Soviets had a numerical superiority. Now, imagine being dumb (or bold enough) to fight the Ukrainians on numerical parity at best.
Russia may have lost the war the moment they did this without a full call up. They might have a chance if the winter arrives early.

 

[thejackal]

The hohols only have an advantage in manpower, intelligence, and morale?

So only three of the five most important things in a war? Oh and they have the advantage in the fourth too, superior weapons. That "modernized" Soviet tech is getting assraped with no lube by the Western stuff. And the fifth, their logistics are way better than Russia's. Five for five

This war was over when it was revealed Russia was flying sorties in the 1st week with hand written GPS coordinates in their Flankers and a Garmin taped to the fucking instrument panel.