Global Depression 2022 - Time to do the Breadline Boogaloo!

[Kujo Jotaro]

What is likely going to happen in the US is what happened in England and will likely happen to the ECB this week. Wall Street dumps bonds to drive yields up, which the government can't afford to pay. Wall street is trying to force the government to go back to money printing and halt rate hikes/lower the fund rate. And right on time the UN is calling for the Fed to do exactly that.

That is why the Fed is trying to force everyone into the dollar and bonds. You have to suffer with us.

I found someone who eloquently lays out what the overlords have in store for us - Dan Tubb.

Interview with a podcast:

Twitter thread on many of those points (archive)

They're going to take option 3 - try to contain inflation while printing money. Japan already has, England already has. There's also the reality that the Fed wants inflation - it shrinks the debt. They can live with a 7-9% CPLie annually for several years, even if we can't because its really at 15-20%.

>crypto shill analysis
lol

 

[Tumbo II]

We are In the mindst of an accelerated de globalization what should have taken a decade or more is now more than likely going to happen in a few years. thx Corona Chan This is especially true of the current supply chain issues however the good news particularly for America is that it is a global power and the US dollar is still a global reserve currency. TLDR North America will be fine everywhere else that depends.

 

[F13 Key]

I'm not convinced that US manufacturing can possibly make any form of comeback to offset globalization of supply chains. Union organization domestically combined with decades of gutting vertical integration is going to make that unlikely unless companies are going to be convinced to hire domestic labor at competitive wages with benefits. They've been addicted to cheap third world labor and manufacturing far too long to quit cold turkey.

 

[Kujo Jotaro]

I'm not convinced that US manufacturing can possibly make any form of comeback to offset globalization of supply chains. Union organization domestically combined with decades of gutting vertical integration is going to make that unlikely unless companies are going to be convinced to hire domestic labor at competitive wages with benefits. They've been addicted to cheap third world labor and manufacturing far too long to quit cold turkey.

On god this dude has no ability to see past the current paradigm.

 

[Conefused By Alphabets]

I'm not convinced that US manufacturing can possibly make any form of comeback to offset globalization of supply chains. Union organization domestically combined with decades of gutting vertical integration is going to make that unlikely unless companies are going to be convinced to hire domestic labor at competitive wages with benefits. They've been addicted to cheap third world labor and manufacturing far too long to quit cold turkey.

This is true for a few fronts. Since Trump and Tim Apple had sat down and talk during the last presidency, Tim has spend a huge value judgement effort in moving one of their product lines partially back state wise. Said product is the Mac Pro, to be assembled in Austin Texas. When the program began, the success rate for a completed product were 30% yield, meaning for every 10 Mac Pro's that were created, 3 of them made it to the end of the finish line and past quality control. To this day, it would still be a stretch to say that the yield is 50% in US factories, and this is on the easier to manufacture devices, not your nano sized circuitry and semiconductors. It would take a very long time to develop comparable supply chains in the west for the fact that mass semiconductor and electronics fabrication isn't a native skill anymore.

 

[HTTP Error 404]

I'm not convinced that US manufacturing can possibly make any form of comeback to offset globalization of supply chains. Union organization domestically combined with decades of gutting vertical integration is going to make that unlikely unless companies are going to be convinced to hire domestic labor at competitive wages with benefits. They've been addicted to cheap third world labor and manufacturing far too long to quit cold turkey.

I don't think we can discount the effort the Email Caste, the bugmen in the hives, will take to prevent manufacturing jobs and the economic and political power this would bring to the red states and rural areas from coming back. Remember, they have plans for everyone to live in the forever blue bugman hives and restrict our movement outside of them. US Manufacturing fucks with that, a lot.

 

[F13 Key]

I don't think we can discount the effort the Email Caste, the bugmen in the hives, will take to prevent manufacturing jobs and the economic and political power this would bring to the red states and rural areas from coming back. Remember, they have plans for everyone to live in the forever blue bugman hives and restrict our movement outside of them. US Manufacturing fucks with that, a lot.

How DARE companies think about bringing half decent jobs to Pennsylvania, Ohio and Wisconsin, people there... might vote blue? I'm not sure if it's Democrats who've been holding back job growth in those places. The GOP control every level of government in the Dakotas, Nebraska and other states where poverty is rampant and there's not much in the way of quality job growth. That said, I don't think it's a particularly partisan problem, neither party has really had much in the way of a plan to revitalize domestic manufacturing. Overseas manufacturing is so cheap that state governments have to practically subsidize companies' entire operations to get them to build anything anywhere more than a few hundred miles inland from the coast. Job creation is usually done more to buy votes. Elites don't want domestic manufacturing to recover because it impacts their costs, regardless of what party they align with.

 

[F13 Key]

Zerohedge mentions that the Fed will change its inflation target from 2-3% to something like 4-5% in the future so that it doesn't have to keep raising interest rates.

Expect a wave of propaganda in the near future that this is good.

According to the fed's most recent outlook, they've already got a potential range of 2.4 - 4.1% for core PCE inflation in 2023. My guess is they'll do another 75 point hike then claim they're done with larger hikes and that quantitative tightening / liquidity draining measures can handle it from there. Their problem for Q4 of this year is that OPEC just cut output and oil is going to rise again, fucking up this quarter's inflation numbers and keeping them above their hopeful targets they were banking on with gasoline prices having come down. A rail strike could also make gasoline prices rise if goods suddenly have to shift to truck, even if it's short-lived.

We're already in a recession, they just moved the goalposts on calling it to protect the stock markets, but in my view it's too little too late and this "recession" will be one of the worst ever, because I can't see how they can use expansionary money policy this time around. Probably not going to end up in a "depression" yet, but this decade is going to be pretty much shit for anyone who isn't sitting on half a million or more in assets right now.

 

[Zbk3VmLfujjzjxBd43tL]

How DARE companies think about bringing half decent jobs to Pennsylvania, Ohio and Wisconsin, people there... might vote blue? I'm not sure if it's Democrats who've been holding back job growth in those places. The GOP control every level of government in the Dakotas, Nebraska and other states where poverty is rampant and there's not much in the way of quality job growth. That said, I don't think it's a particularly partisan problem, neither party has really had much in the way of a plan to revitalize domestic manufacturing. Overseas manufacturing is so cheap that state governments have to practically subsidize companies' entire operations to get them to build anything anywhere more than a few hundred miles inland from the coast. Job creation is usually done more to buy votes. Elites don't want domestic manufacturing to recover because it impacts their costs, regardless of what party they align with.

Look how many Republican Congresscritters are signing off for billions to Ukraine. Like forget Israel for a moment, in not even a year, Ukraine has received what Israel has got in like 20+ years. I really wish it was that these fuckers didn't understand money and thought we could freely give billions to Ukraine while if they wanted their states/districts to get that money they'd have a fight, but no, these are smart people, they're just fucking evil. And evil in their own way unlike a Democrat rep/senator. Let's keep in mind Cocaine Mitch represents Kentucky, which is a state full of poor whites--and poor blacks and Hispanics in some places--yet Cocaine Mitch is covering up all sorts of awful shit he and his buddies have done in Ukraine, China, etc. and of course doesn't give a fuck about his constituents.

 

[Male Idiot]

The problem with US manufacturing is that they can't ever compete with Chinese prices unless Democrats declare that Lincoln was a nazi and force nignogs to work for a 10 dollars a day, 6 days a week.

 

[F13 Key]

Israel gets a pittance as flat out cash foreign aid from the US government, wealth transfer from the USA is mostly done in the form of private investment in companies/research there and through preferred interest rates on loans. Investment in Ukraine mystifies me to a degree, as the USA contributes more than the rest of NATO combined, but it also spends more on its own military than the rest of NATO combined. US aid to Ukraine in the form of weapons is largely in weapons that have already been budgeted and paid for, belonging to the US military, so isn't so clear on whether it's inflating forward cash expenditures or not. I'm not sure if the military is ordering more to fill the inventory gaps and there's probably no way to easily find out as some of that info would be classified.

Not to exactly defend the US sinking billions into Dark Brandon's proxy war, but my guess is it's not directly resulting in an increased amount of cash drain, as the cash was already spent before the war started.

 

[Kujo Jotaro]

 

[tehpope]

https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1578019497277263889

This is where the fun begins.

 

[Zbk3VmLfujjzjxBd43tL]

View attachment 3719732

https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1578019497277263889

This is where the fun begins.

He doesn't have any choice. Even if he is the best puppet state leader a country could ask for (Belarus was one of the most free places in the world during the "pandemic", more free than either Russia or even red state USA), at the end of the day, he's exactly that--ruler of a puppet state. He has been unable to move out from under Russia's thumb and make his own domestic policy, and that's too bad since I think Lukashenko is one of the better world leaders today.

 

[DamnWolves!]

That can turn a $3200/mo payment into $4800 a month, on top of a sudden property tax increase and increased energy costs those families are out $2000+ a month more now than they were in January, and they probably can't afford it. Or they bought a couple years ago planning to flip for a big profit, but now can't sell because the market went to shit and nobody's buying.

Yes, and in 1875 most people lived with their parents until they got married, or struck out on their own and lived with others in cramped or tight quarters. People really don't get how abnormal the age we live in really is.

Yeah, that's why we should have done everything in our power to keep things "abnormal", instead of letting the global poor invade our countries and start giving out asinine entitlements, like we were the playthings of megalomaniacal goyslop-shilling, WEF-chairing, Davos-attending, "world citizen" plutocrats. Too late now, I guess--should have know the global elite would find a way to make us all serfs again.

Mostly because its ensured I'll never be able to buy a home in the current system; I could do so and could've done so in the past

You think you've got it bad, try being a Leaf. At least you can still get a half-decent $350k home near a medium-sized city. Canada has no medium sized cities; it doesn't have an equivalent of Raleigh, NC or Austin, TX or Denver, CO. It only has cities that think they're NYC (Toronto) or LA (Vancouver), and the housing prices reflect that. The reality is that if you are a professional, you need to live in one of these cities to do your job and make money.

The chart below encompasses nearly 1/3 of the Canadian population. Keep in mind that our salaries our similar to the US (somewhere around the $50-65k mark, for low-level professionals or tradesmen), only they're denominated in Canadian dollars. It's basically 15-20X annual salary to be able to afford a starter home. Unless you're double income with 6 figure salaries, you will be a perpetual renter. Somehow, every Pajeet, Hajii and Ching Chong Ding Dong manages to buy up at least 1 house here though. Apparently, our housing stock is no longer for the people who live here and want to build a family; instead, its for aristocrats from societies with hilarious income inequality to bring their millions here and gouge out the eyes of our young people so they can make even more... and to top it all off, we have tax treaties with these very corrupt governments (China and India, to name a few), so we aren't even making tax dollars off of them.

Our government has long ago forgotten that immigration is supposed to be for the benefit of the people who already live here, and is not some grandiose social experiment designed by Justin Trudeau so he can be highly-spoken of in the tranny-written history books of the future, just like his father was (despite his father increasing our national debt by 1200%).

This actually does have some benefits. Stockbrokers don't actually care much about recessions, they care about predictability.

I doubt many people here consider the hollowing out of the American economy so (((stockbrokers))) can make some money as a win.

Of course you can make money in a bear market, but everyone betting the economy goes tits up creates enormous pressure to make sure it actually does. The entire market essentially becomes a "long squeeze", market caps start tanking, loans start defaulting and then Jim who drives a truck gets let go and shoots himself in the head. (((Derivatives traders))) are the lowest form of life next to (((payday loan operators))); they deserve the least consideration from public policy out of anyone, if they deserve any at all. I'm generally a capitalist, but really: "too big to fail" needs to become "too big to exist". I guess antitrust law has been dead since the 80s anyway, thanks to regulatory capture.

Look how many Republican Congresscritters are signing off for billions to Ukraine. Like forget Israel for a moment, in not even a year, Ukraine has received what Israel has got in like 20+ years. I really wish it was that these fuckers didn't understand money and thought we could freely give billions to Ukraine while if they wanted their states/districts to get that money they'd have a fight, but no, these are smart people, they're just fucking evil.

I wish there was a law that said every new spending bill needs to add up the cost, divide it by the actual number of taxpayers in this country, and then explain--in excruciating detail--how much this is costing the average person and what they could have bought themselves and their family with that money instead. They could break it down by which tax quintile you're in. More than anything else, it is profoundly disrespectful to send billions of American tax dollars to some place the average American doesn't give a fuck about.

The top 50% of taxpayers pay 90% of tax and there are 74 million of them. I'll round up to 100%, because this is napkin math anyway. We've sent $17.5 billion to Ukraine, so that's $236 every single productive person in this country could have saved or spent instead of sending it to fucking Ukraine. I get that it's not quite that simple, with sales tax and corporate tax and all the other non-people sources of tax, but if people could understand the magnitude of government waste, there'd be a lot more people asking questions. Admittedly, that's nothing compared to the $6,081 each taxpayer spends on nigger welfare, but if people could better compare how the government spends their money vs. how they'd rather spend their money, there would be a lot more fiscal conservatives.

I'm not convinced that US manufacturing can possibly make any form of comeback to offset globalization of supply chains.

I'm of the opinion that "supply chain issues" is really just short for "we need domestic microchip production". The US or Canada are the perfect place to make chips in this hemisphere; chips outside the influence of China. How much of those supply chain issues were driven by the chip shortage? Cars, farm equipment, truck emissions sensors?

P.S. Null, fix your fucking site or at least add a pop-up to tell people when their draft isn't being saved anymore; changing the page ate half my reply and I had to type it up again REEEEEEE

 

[wtfNeedSignUp]

@DamnWolves!

Our government has long ago forgotten that immigration is supposed to be for the benefit of the people who already live here, and is not some grandiose social experiment designed by Justin Trudeau so he can be highly-spoken of in the tranny-written history books of the future, just like his father was (despite his father increasing our national debt by 1200%).

There is a good reason for mass immigration and that is increasing numbers. No one wants to be the next Japan and be a ticking population and social welfare time bomb. And most western countries citizens will rather kill themselves than engage in jobs they see as lowly.
Of course, like with the energy sector, the politicians ignore the fact that most third world immigrants are a net loss, and instead buy the fake American ideal of refugees pulling themselves up.

 

[Vyse Inglebard]

"STOP USING THE GAS, PLEBS! IT'S FOR THE GOOD OF UKRAINE!"

 

[F13 Key]

@DamnWolves!

There is a good reason for mass immigration and that is increasing numbers. No one wants to be the next Japan and be a ticking population and social welfare time bomb. And most western countries citizens will rather kill themselves than engage in jobs they see as lowly.
Of course, like with the energy sector, the politicians ignore the fact that most third world immigrants are a net loss, and instead buy the fake American ideal of refugees pulling themselves up.

Poor / low skill immigrants are a net economic loss, but someone has to clean toilets or sling french fries. As the population ages, there's also a shortage of workers in elder care and lower level nursing. Someone also has to change grandpa's diapers or bathe him.

They'll also have more kids on average so will add to the labor pool and economy in the very long term by keeping the birth rate from plummeting for longer.

I'd rather have refugees who cost us a little extra money but will do menial jobs and help grow the labor pool, than wealthy chinese expats who buy up all the housing and end up not paying much in taxes while channeling their profits out of the country. They don't really want to come here to sit on welfare and do nothing, it's not much of a life with the cost of living the way it is. I don't like how Canada lets them immigrate elderly relatives to suck the healthcare system dry though.

 

[Desu Mountain]

@DamnWolves!

There is a good reason for mass immigration and that is increasing numbers. No one wants to be the next Japan and be a ticking population and social welfare time bomb. And most western countries citizens will rather kill themselves than engage in jobs they see as lowly.
Of course, like with the energy sector, the politicians ignore the fact that most third world immigrants are a net loss, and instead buy the fake American ideal of refugees pulling themselves up.

Yeah, we tried that in Sweden. The result is ethnic replacement funded by taxpaying Swedes (because the immigrants live off of welfare).

 

[wopirish]

View attachment 3720154
"STOP USING THE GAS, PLEBS! IT'S FOR THE GOOD OF UKRAINE!"

I wonder if Herr Klaus lives in a mansion? Rules for thy peasant not for the elite.