Russian Invasion of Ukraine Megathread - Episode III - Revenge of the Ruski (now unlocked with new skins and gameplay modes!!!)

[Givi]

I'm a bit interested in both Ukrainian and Russian wartime production of military hardware. Has either made significant efforts to increase domestic productions of such items? (not just de-mothballing/refurbishing stored assets or buying/accepting things from other countries).

Russia has ordered the modernization of many tanks and de-mothballed a ton of IFVs (and continues to do so). I presume Ukraine de-mothballed everything they possibly could, including jets (they had a VERY sizable amount of everything).

Uralvagonzavod seems to be mostly busy bringing old T-80BVMs and T-72s out of storage and upgrading them to modern standard, though we've seen plenty of brand-new T-90s, I'm assuming they have several production lines and therefore, have the capacity to do both things at the same time (though I couldn't tell you what their real capacity is).

I haven't heard anything about extensive tank repairs though. Perhaps anything that isn't immediately fixable in a repair depot is just dumped into storage for later repair or salvaging, it may not be worth it to waste time doing extensive repairs on blown out captured T-64BVs when you could be de-mothballing and upgrading another T-80.

Here's a brand new T-90M, sent to a training ground, where the recently mobilized were being trained.

10/09/2022

Omsktransmash (part of the Uralvagonzavod Concern) delivered some Pions ahead of schedule October 12 2022:

There is also this:

https://kiwifarms.st/threads/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-megathread.128094/post-12965071

In general, efforts are seemingly being made not only to make new tanks and equipment as planned, but also to de-mothball and modernize as much as possible. I haven't heard any numbers but that isn't surprising considering this is some top-secret stuff. If you are interested in small arms, I don't know much, but once read that there were more AK variants in storage in Russia today than the USSR ever had.

 

[Hell on Earth]

Russia has ordered the modernization of many tanks and de-mothballed a ton of IFVs (and continues to do so). I presume Ukraine de-mothballed everything they possibly could, including jets (they had a VERY sizable amount of everything).

Uralvagonzavod seems to be mostly busy bringing old T-80BVMs and T-72s out of storage and upgrading them to modern standard, though we've seen plenty of brand-new T-90s, I'm assuming they have several production lines and therefore, have the capacity to do both things at the same time (though I couldn't tell you what their real capacity is).

I haven't heard anything about extensive tank repairs though. Perhaps anything that isn't immediately fixable in a repair depot is just dumped into storage for later repair or salvaging, it may not be worth it to waste time doing extensive repairs on blown out captured T-64BVs when you could be de-mothballing and upgrading another T-80.

Here's a brand new T-90M, sent to a training ground, where the recently mobilized were being trained.

10/09/2022

View attachment 3755854

Omsktransmash (part of the Uralvagonzavod Concern) delivered some Pions ahead of schedule October 12 2022:

View attachment 3755861

There is also this:

https://kiwifarms.st/threads/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-megathread.128094/post-12965071

In general, efforts are seemingly being made not only to make new tanks and equipment as planned, but also to de-mothball and modernize as much as possible. I haven't heard any numbers but that isn't surprising considering this is some top-secret stuff. If you are interested in small arms, I don't know much, but once read that there were more AK variants in storage in Russia today than the USSR ever had.

Ukraine's getting a new army by courtesy of NATO and Russia is modernizing/producing it's equipment, mobilizing reservists/volunteers and copying/buying Iranian drones/cruise missiles at a massive scale. By next year, Russia will have 700,000-800,000 men in Ukraine.

People like Destiny think that waging a large scale war with Russia will force them to see reason and surrender, but there's no evidence supporting that notion. Russia can wage this war for a very long time since it's military industry isn't being threatened at all and it's now being nurtured by other nations.

 

[Givi]

Ukraine's getting a new army by courtesy of NATO and Russia is modernizing/producing it's equipment, mobilizing reservists/volunteers and copying/buying Iranian drones/cruise missiles at a massive scale. By next year, Russia will have 700,000-800,000 men in Ukraine.

People like Destiny think that waging a large scale war with Russia will force them to see reason and surrender, but there's no evidence supporting that notion. Russia can wage this war for a very long time since it's military industry isn't being threatened at all and it's now being nurtured by other nations.

Absolutely - by far Ukraine's biggest problem may be that certain things simply cannot be made or supplied to them in the necessary numbers, realistically speaking. Nobody but Russia and Russia's allies really has enough factories for SAM rockets (a growing concern with the appearance of the Iranian family of drones), Smerch and Alder rockets, 152mm artillery ammunition, T-64BV and T-72 ammo to keep a war of this scale going on indefinitely, not to mention the IFVs and troop transports (for all the foreign stuff supplied to them, the BMP and the BTR are still among the more commonly seen pieces of equipment for Ukraine). There's a reason Ukraine started scrambling jets to shoot down drones (and paid dearly for it).

One could say "but the US does have the capacity that Europe doesn't, and can keep Ukraine afloat in terms of IFVs and troop transports for a while" and I'd say perhaps they can as long as the political good will is there, but then why do they not? For every MaxPro we see, we see 2 or 3 YPRs-765s and five BTRs and BMPs. 200 MRAPs every few months isn't going to make enough of a difference to an army that loses up to 10 tanks and IFVs/APCs a day in ill-advised reconnaissance by force/light attacks in Kherson alone.

Russia keeping their industry afloat (though greatly diminished from the times of the USSR) through corruption, government subsidies, deals with third-world states and making vast amounts of equipment that went straight to storage has, funnily enough, paid dividends for this war, god knows it's much worse having to build a factory from the ground up than just purging incompetent or corrupt retards from its leadership. Europe in comparison has more or less sent everything that they realistically have the capacity to send without having to leech off the US for everything because of decades of neglecting their military industrial complex (lol). Eventually there aren't going to be any more nearly obsolete M113s to dump stock of in Ukraine for a tax-write off and a feel-good article on Reuters.

 

[White_N]

Question
Seems like the next relevant topic will be the dam near kherson, ukies and ruskies have been saying the other will blow up/falseflag the dam to cause a massive flood, another humanitarian crisis, and destruction of Crimea’s water supply. thoughts? nothingburger or something that might happen?

I would say it's crazy but (((someone))) have already shelled a nuclear power plant, so crazy people may well make crazy decisions.

If the dam is damaged or destroyed, the following will happen

• It will flood most of the Kherson region, turning half of the state into ruin.
• Finally, a meltdown of the Zaporozhye NPP that relies on cooling from the Kakhovka reservoir
• loss of water to the Crimean region

The motive is pretty obvious

 

[Ancient Pioneer]

Question
Seems like the next relevant topic will be the dam near kherson, ukies and ruskies have been saying the other will blow up/falseflag the dam to cause a massive flood, another humanitarian crisis, and destruction of Crimea’s water supply. thoughts? nothingburger or something that might happen?

The Southfront channel (Pro Assad and Pro Russia, channel's main focus was Syria but that conflict went cold) seem to believe that Ukraine is likely to attack this dam and Russia will likewise attack the dam north of Kiev causing most of the bridges along the Dniper River to be destroyed as the rush of water hits them, leading to the country being effectively bifurcated logistically by the river. Mind you, the caveat is that Russia will only take out this dam IF Ukraine blows the Kherson one.
https://odysee.com/@SouthFront:4/kiev-to-launch-dam-war:0

 

[Hell on Earth]

Absolutely - by far Ukraine's biggest problem may be that certain things simply cannot be made or supplied to them in the necessary numbers, realistically speaking. Nobody but Russia and Russia's allies really has enough factories for SAM rockets (a growing concern with the appearance of the Iranian family of drones), Smerch and Alder rockets, 152mm artillery ammunition, T-64BV and T-72 ammo to keep a war of this scale going on indefinitely, not to mention the IFVs and troop transports (for all the foreign stuff supplied to them, the BMP and the BTR are still among the more commonly seen pieces of equipment for Ukraine). There's a reason Ukraine started scrambling jets to shoot down drones (and paid dearly for it).

One could say "but the US does have the capacity that Europe doesn't, and can keep Ukraine afloat in terms of IFVs and troop transports for a while" and I'd say perhaps they can as long as the political good will is there, but then why do they not? For every MaxPro we see, we see 2 or 3 YPRs-765s and five BTRs and BMPs. 200 MRAPs every few months isn't going to make enough of a difference to an army that loses up to 10 tanks and IFVs/APCs a day in ill-advised reconnaissance by force/light attacks in Kherson alone.

Russia keeping their industry afloat (though greatly diminished from the times of the USSR) through corruption, government subsidies, deals with third-world states and making vast amounts of equipment that went straight to storage has, funnily enough, paid dividends for this war, god knows it's much worse having to build a factory from the ground up than just purging incompetent or corrupt retards from its leadership. Europe in comparison has more or less sent everything that they realistically have the capacity to send without having to leech off the US for everything because of decades of neglecting their military industrial complex (lol). Eventually there aren't going to be any more nearly obsolete M113s to dump stock of in Ukraine for a tax-write off and a feel-good article on Reuters.

Is there any way Russia can be forced to surrender? That scenario simply doesn't seem plausible at all with how things are going, and I don't think the people planning all of this thought of an off-ramp if things don't go their way.

WIth how things are going, I wouldn't be surprised if hundreds of thousands became casualties as a result of the intensity of the conflict by it's later stages when more than a million men are mobilized and industry is fine-tuned for warfare (just seems the logical end-point). Also, I think Russian elites are now coming to the idea that an off-ramp doesn't exist anymore and accordingly, they made it into law that the Russian state is obliged to complete the capture of the annexed regions.

Even if Russia is forced to surrender some regions by sheer military force, they can just regroup/resupply in Russia/Belarus and just keep launching offensives/attacks in vulnerable areas of the huge border. The fact that Russia can't get invaded just means that the threat posed by them will never go away.

 

[Doctor Professor Timon]

Is there any way Russia can be forced to surrender? That scenario simply doesn't seem plausible at all with how things are going, and I don't think the people planning all of this thought of an off-ramp if things don't go their way.

Joe Biden flies down in his Iron-Man suit.

Putin: "I have an army."

Joe Biden: "I don't know who I am."

Putin: "I will continue waging war!"

Joe Biden: "C'mon man!"

Putin: "I have seen the error of my ways."

Just like heckin' Harry Potter, right?


Just sayin'. Russia's done with a lot of countries' shit. At this point, they're doing it to spite NATO now.

 

[LeChampion1992]

Well I'm not just talking about the super high tech stuff, but shit like engines, chassises, cannons, ammunition, rockets (sans guidance) etc. The decreased availability of microchips and rare earth minerals shouldn't be a that much of a problem for missile production since those mostly run very simple trigonometric calculations (meaning low-performance chips like the russian ones made without x-ray lithography should be enough) and mostly use single-use thermal batteries rather than rechargeable fancy ones.

Like, even simple trucks with off-road capability. Has either side increased production of even that?

Targeting systems, GPS guidance, the Russians can develop cheaper and single use versions. But the west holds the key to targeting systems, and many ultra advanced products. Russia if they don't have access to the global market won't have access to the high and middle end chips. Most of the lower chip manufacturing still relies on materials that are from the US/Japan/Taiwan.

This war has seemed to kick off the second great chip shortage.

 

[Givi]

Is there any way Russia can be forced to surrender? That scenario simply doesn't seem plausible at all with how things are going, and I don't think the people planning all of this thought of an off-ramp if things don't go their way.

Only if a Ukrainian counter-offensive is so decisive and successful that Russian morale is irretrievably broken, ending the war through any means becomes a major concern in Russia and Putin has to do it to save his own government. In my opinion neither side, but especially Russia, can be defeated through equipment losses or even through casualties, something decisive must happen in this war for it to end. Equipment losses and casualties can make this theoretical offensive on either side happen more easily, but Russia has the means to replace theirs far more than the UAF.

If casualties are spaced far enough apart, and there's never a moment where Russia loses 10,000-20,000 men in a month or a few weeks, then I think the public won't get mad enough to force Russia into a retreat. And really, even if they retreated, I'm not convinced the conflict wouldn't just get frozen as with separatist republics as Russia waits for a time of NATO weakness to strike again, building up their own strength again meanwhile (though I don't believe this would work very well, NATO has more resources and money to help Ukraine than Russia has to help itself).

Keep in mind that this counter-offensive would have to at the very least, retake Kherson and drive Russia from the LPR to its own borders without completely sapping the UAF's capacity to fight, which is basically impossible, especially as the Russians have decided to start building proper fortifications in the places they take and intend to hold.

These things are always hard to predict though, so many variables and all...

 

[Simpadoo]

Disregard the Pollack rapebaby musings.

They live in a different, cleaning chemical-fume-induced fantasy.

 

[Simpadoo]

Give me my puzzle pieces but reading this reminded me of Babylon 5. The europeans are the Centauri with their glory days behind them, forced to negotiate and treat former enemies as equals. The USA are like the shadows lending them advanced weapons and assistance which leads to them behaving with renewed aggression because they suddenly have a powerful ally. I don't know who the Naan are. I guess Russians as a group trying to cling on to the power they have after decades of weakness and humiliation.

Centauri are Whites, Narns are niggers and Earth is a composite fantasy race.

The Shadows were right but them riding into the sunset along with the Vorlons (both Jews) is another fantasy.

 

[Simpadoo]

Ukraine has the Spice, and the fucking Harkonnens want to steal it

It is a gay Dune: Ukrainian spice is semen.

 

[LeChampion1992]

The war was always going to happen, sooner or later anyways. The logic of the western (mostly American) elites in planning all of this is : "Our only possibility to cripple Russia in the geo-political arena, is to bleed them to death." This Falkenhayn-style strategy worked in WW1 against the Russians (and almost against the French) but it failed spectacularly in WW2 against the Soviet Union.

This is it's modern iteration, but instead of using the lives of your own citizens, you're using the lives of disposable people and the only cost to you is the military hardware you give to them. However, it only worked in WW1 because Russia was in a pitiable condition when it came to military, economic, political and nutritional terms back in 1917.

What Russia will look like at the end, I don't know, but right now it's stable enough to keep the war going for the rest of this decade and beyond.

I don't think Russia is as strong as people make them out to be. The biggest concern I have is the demographic crisis they're facing. There is a real shortage of fighting age ment that want to fight in Ukraine.

Initially I expected a war to be 2-6 weeks long in their favor but if anything Russian propaganda and Russian realities aren't the same thing. The only country in a worse demographic crisis is Ukraine and last I checked.

The ont thing I would like to get is accurate casualty reports from the uktaninan side. Because I want to see which side has a higher casualty rate. So far one can say with confidence that 70,000+ Russians are probably dead. With tens of thousands more wounded, captured or missing in action.

What's the civilian and Ukraine army. Because Russian sources love to say we "killed 170,000" troops "Ukraine army is destroyed" even though there are no proper stats.

Russia isn't stable enough to keep the war going much longer than another year much less a decade+ lol

Refilling equipment losses with gibs from Iran and Belarus and people think they have the juice to keep going for years?

Being that high oil prices can allow them to offset some economic issues they can offset some of these things. But Russia's trained professional army probably got destroyed by this war.

 

[Simpadoo]

Absolutely - by far Ukraine's biggest problem may be that certain things simply cannot be made or supplied to them in the necessary numbers, realistically speaking. Nobody but Russia and Russia's allies really has enough factories for SAM rockets (a growing concern with the appearance of the Iranian family of drones), Smerch and Alder rockets, 152mm artillery ammunition, T-64BV and T-72 ammo to keep a war of this scale going on indefinitely, not to mention the IFVs and troop transports (for all the foreign stuff supplied to them, the BMP and the BTR are still among the more commonly seen pieces of equipment for Ukraine). There's a reason Ukraine started scrambling jets to shoot down drones (and paid dearly for it).

One could say "but the US does have the capacity that Europe doesn't, and can keep Ukraine afloat in terms of IFVs and troop transports for a while" and I'd say perhaps they can as long as the political good will is there, but then why do they not? For every MaxPro we see, we see 2 or 3 YPRs-765s and five BTRs and BMPs. 200 MRAPs every few months isn't going to make enough of a difference to an army that loses up to 10 tanks and IFVs/APCs a day in ill-advised reconnaissance by force/light attacks in Kherson alone.

Russia keeping their industry afloat (though greatly diminished from the times of the USSR) through corruption, government subsidies, deals with third-world states and making vast amounts of equipment that went straight to storage has, funnily enough, paid dividends for this war, god knows it's much worse having to build a factory from the ground up than just purging incompetent or corrupt retards from its leadership. Europe in comparison has more or less sent everything that they realistically have the capacity to send without having to leech off the US for everything because of decades of neglecting their military industrial complex (lol). Eventually there aren't going to be any more nearly obsolete M113s to dump stock of in Ukraine for a tax-write off and a feel-good article on Reuters.

I thought Ukraine’s biggest problem is having a Jew president.

 

[Hell on Earth]

I don't think Russia is as strong as people make them out to be. The biggest concern I have is the demographic crisis they're facing. There is a real shortage of fighting age ment that want to fight in Ukraine.

Initially I expected a war to be 2-6 weeks long in their favor but if anything Russian propaganda and Russian realities aren't the same thing. The only country in a worse demographic crisis is Ukraine and last I checked.

The ont thing I would like to get is accurate casualty reports from the uktaninan side. Because I want to see which side has a higher casualty rate. So far one can say with confidence that 70,000+ Russians are probably dead. With tens of thousands more wounded, captured or missing in action.

What's the civilian and Ukraine army. Because Russian sources love to say we "killed 170,000" troops "Ukraine army is destroyed" even though there are no proper stats.

Being that high oil prices can allow them to offset some economic issues they can offset some of these things. But Russia's trained professional army probably got destroyed by this war.

The Russians will probably have parity in numbers in a couple of months and I think more waves of mobilization will happen as the conflict gets a lot more heated.

70,000 dead?! You must be out of your mind if you think that number has any validity. For this calculus to be right, the overall number of casualties required to reach that huge number of dead must be more than 250,000. Which makes no sense, since that would mean that all the entire Russian army in Ukraine became casualties. I think an estimate of more than 10,000 killed for Russian and separatist forces is more appropiate.

 

[LeChampion1992]

The Russians will probably have parity in numbers in a couple of months and I think more waves of mobilization will happen as the conflict gets a lot more heated.

70,000 dead?! You must be out of your mind if you think that number has any validity. For this calculus to be right, the overall number of casualties required to reach that huge number of dead must be more than 250,000. Which makes no sense, since that would mean that all the entire Russian army in Ukraine became casualties. I think an estimate of more than 10,000 killed for Russian and separatist forces is more appropiate.

This is Kia, it's about 120,000-125,000 once you include wounded and mia it's not the entire army but you have heavy casualties that's a 40-50% casualty rate. When you look at the Russians logistics they've been targeted , if you can't keep supply lines up and running your military will begin to fall apart. You need to think maintenance oils, food, fuel, armor, medical first aid kits, clothing, gear, and etc.... The logistics are in Ukraine s favor vs the Russians at the current moment. This however could change. You have had battalions and regiments wiped out down to the last 3 or 4 guys or sometimes even get wiped out. From the Ukraine army Side the casualties are still high but overall lesser in numbers compared to the Russians.

 

[Just Some Other Guy]

This is Kia, it's about 120,000-125,000 once you include wounded and mia it's not the entire army but you have heavy casualties that's a 40-50% casualty rate. When you look at the Russians logistics they've been targeted , if you can't keep supply lines up and running your military will begin to fall apart. You need to think maintenance oils, food, fuel, armor, medical first aid kits, clothing, gear, and etc.... The logistics are in Ukraine s favor vs the Russians at the current moment. This however could change. You have had battalions and regiments wiped out down to the last 3 or 4 guys or sometimes even get wiped out. From the Ukraine army Side the casualties are still high but overall lesser in numbers compared to the Russians.

Any other source for that other than the Defense Ministry of Ukraine?

*Edit* Lol they're claiming 2.5k tanks? Nearly 300 jets? wtf

 

[LeChampion1992]

Any other source for that other than the Defense Ministry of Ukraine?

*Edit* Lol they're claiming 2.5k tanks? Nearly 300 jets? wtf

The Russians tried to claim only 5,000-6,000 troops dead. Just from telegram footage alone that number is far higher then RT has said.

Last I checked Russia Today isn't leaking out Ukrainian general's communications making them basically public.

"We have no specialists!" and other #intercepted russian looney tunes

The war is still bloody, but now it's more technological.russian occupiers admit they are used as cannon fodder against modern military equipment, but they s...

youtu.be

There's dozens more that were hearing from the Ukraine side. Their Intel has to be given credit it's actually high confirmation.


When you can peek into the communications of one side usally the side that can listen in on every major operation you can organize tends to win wars. Especially when you have the inter advantage.

 

[Pаzuzu]

you gotta be a retard to believe those "interceptions" are real

 

[Just Some Other Guy]

LMAOOOOOO. Right. Totally legit nothing to see here.

I'm not even saying Russia's numbers are accurate. It's war. Each side is going to put a huge spin on numbers to push an agenda. To fully believe one side is dishonest at best.