Two, it will be interesting to see if once Russia withdrawls in full and Ukraine officially liberates Kherson, if they dam the Crimea water supply again or not, if they don't, expect a backroom deal happened.
The problem is, what Ukrainian will negotiate for? I know that most by now do not remember, but the first proposed peace deal at the very beginning was:
1. Independence for Donetsk Oblast.
2. Independence for Lugansk Oblast.
3. Recognition of Crimea as Russian.
4. Ukrainian neutrality (joining EU was allowed, from what i can remember).
There was probably something about not blocking water to Crimea, but i don't know if somebody publicly stated something about it or not.
They would need something out of those 4 points removed, because if they don't, then the question of why they even fought a war to gain nothing out of it will arise.
If they retake the rest of Kherson and Zaparozhiya, then it is just what they were presented with in a peace deal 7 months ago. They need to either take some other Oblast or secure place in NATO to make it somewhat worth it.
And if America is going to push for peace and accept all 4 points + water for Crimea, then the question becomes - how can America push Ukraine to accept the same deal that was presented to it before war started in earnest without looking like an asshole and without Ukraine looking like a used up whore?
I guess declaring minimalist goals was a smart thing for Russia to avoid American style forever wars, but now there is this kind of problem because of this minimalism.
Worse, it's not like Ukraine is going to need alot of forces to hold Kherson once they secure it. All those Brigades fighting there can be sent to a different front. Probably a strike towards Melitopol or Mariople.
The same is true for Russia. They don't need much forces to hold a river. And everything else can be sent to wherever Ukraine going to send their troops. But now without logistical problems that holding Kherson entails.
The entire story of this war has been Russias atrocious logistics and trying to take and defend massive amounts of territory with a comparatively small army. They are giving up a regional capital without a fight because of logistics. It's mind boggling.
The problem with holding Kherson is that river between east and west can freeze in winter, but strength of ice would not be enough to move transport over it. So you would end up with no pontoons for transport because of the ice and no ability to move vehicles on ice. Nobody was willing to take the risk, it seems.
There is also a speculation that America is in negotiations with Russia over Ukraine, despite Russian denial of it, so it might be part of the deal. With the whole "if Kherson falls to Ukraine, then negotiations can restart" articles and Biden softening his rhetoric and clearly stating that he will not start WW3 over Ukraine, i can see why. But it is too early to tell for sure. Might be another one of those Juda-Angloid tricks. The same one that happened at the beginning with Kviv.