US US Politics General - Discussion of President Biden and other politicians

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OrangeJuliusEvola said:
It was my reading into agriculture, water management and resource extraction that lead me into my current view, which isn't really "Doomer". "Doomer" is my long-term view on existential weapons like nukes and whatever is to come from fucking around with viruses. No, long story short, it's going to become more expensive to extract and refine raw materials like oil and metals, grow food, etc etc, and that means retrenchment for at least several generations, no matter who is in charge of the circus. This is just shit that historically happens every now and then. Kinda sucks to live through, but it is what it is. It coincides with clownworld mostly because competent governance ameliorates bad times, but bad ones amplify it. When societies reach decadence and hits these bumps, well realignment happens.

I rather disagree that it will be blacks or muslims serving as barbarians at the gates. They're just too urban and secularized in the West. You want to know who takes over, look to those groups with the greatest asabiyyah and live in the rural and religious fringes of society, as Ibn Khaldun explains it.
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It's a cyclical thing in history. There will be most likely some discovery of new resources, it just may take time (Fusion comes to mind).
Personally I suspect some sort of return to local production since transportation will get more expensive, kinda of like 21st century feudalism. That and a massive population decrease after the dust settles.

I think the agricultural situation will only get worse, since aquifer water generally isn't replaceable, and more and more edible plants go extinct due to human interaction (American Chestnut, butternut, Asimina, Musa, Citrus to name a few) while we keep getting worse diseases since breeding removes variation for beneficial traits and is thus deleterious to diversity..

They were just examples. I'm not really sure who would those be, unless it's the cartels and some unholy version of Seven Day Adventists and Amish lol.
Edit: Dropped a capital for taxonomy rip.
 
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George Lucas said:
Has any mathematician/statistician analyzed any of these close races? There’s Benford’s Law. What about the likelihood of so many close races?
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I read something crowing about how Democrats won 34 "tossups" in the House. 34! If they're all roughly coinflips that is 2 to the 34th power, over 17 billion to 1.

Edit: Kevin McCarthy for speaker from Donald Trump, he's California Mitt Romney/Mitch McConnell who turned what should have been a 40+ seat pickup into possibly not even having the House. Might as well endorse Nancy Pelosi for speaker.
 
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OrangeJuliusEvola said:
It was my reading into agriculture, water management and resource extraction that lead me into my current view, which isn't really "Doomer". "Doomer" is my long-term view on existential weapons like nukes and whatever is to come from fucking around with viruses. No, long story short, it's going to become more expensive to extract and refine raw materials like oil and metals, grow food, etc etc, and that means retrenchment for at least several generations, no matter who is in charge of the circus. This is just shit that historically happens every now and then. Kinda sucks to live through, but it is what it is. It coincides with clownworld mostly because competent governance ameliorates bad times, but bad ones amplify it. When societies reach decadence and hits these bumps, well realignment happens.

I rather disagree that it will be blacks or muslims serving as barbarians at the gates. They're just too urban and secularized in the West. You want to know who takes over, look to those groups with the greatest asabiyyah and live in the rural and religious fringes of society, as Ibn Khaldun explains it.
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My money's on wholesale balkanization with multiple groups grabbing power wherever they can when they can. The niggers and spics will have their enclaves. So will the folks out in the sticks. Needless to say, it's gonna be an all-out shitshow.
 
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MarvinTheParanoidAndroid said:
No chance of that happening now, what with corpses winning elections.

Is there a reason I shouldn't lose interest in politics at this point? If it's all a sham then what's the point?
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Honestly? It's all planned out years ahead of time. Kari Lake is reading off a script and so is Ron DeSantis and Trump. The entire thing is a sham and the people saying to focus on local politics are absolutely correct.
 
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AGreatDipAtAFairPrice said:
I read something crowing about how Democrats won 34 "tossups" in the House. 34! If they're all roughly coinflips that is 2 to the 34th power, over 17 billion to 1.

Edit: Kevin McCarthy for speaker from Donald Trump, he's California Mitt Romney/Mitch McConnell who turned what should have been a 40+ seat pickup into possibly not even having the House. Might as well endorse Nancy Pelosi for speaker.
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This is what I’m thinking:
If you have a two-way race with a population of three voters, You can have 2-1, 1-2, 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 0-0, so six outcomes. The margins for each are 17%, 17%, 0% (tie, max closeness), 50%, 50%, undefined. If we set our closeness margin to 5%, the probability of the race being close is 1/6. HOWEVER, you have to factor in the voting likelihood of the population (i.e. is it more Republican or Democrat), and shift the ‘close point’ by that.

How the fuck do I generalize this? I guess you can look at standard deviation from polls? But what I’m looking for is something more fundamental.
 
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Long Tongue Silver said:
My money's on wholesale balkanization with multiple groups grabbing power wherever they can when they can. The niggers and spics will have their enclaves. So will the folks out in the sticks. Needless to say, it's gonna be an all-out shitshow.
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To a certain extent. In 200 B.C., the population of Rome genetically mostly mirrored the population of the surrounding countryside. in 200 A.D. the population of Rome was a reflection of the general population of the Empire, with Gauls, Greeks, Syriacs and Goths far outnumbering old patrician families by magnitudes. By the 800s, the greatly reduced population of Rome mostly genetically mirrored the people of the surrounding countryside.

Urban areas are population sinks, and have been always, except for a brief period in the late industrial era. The future of nations is a reflection on the wider countryside.
 
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Baris is still bullish on lake.
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Rich Baris "The People's Pundit" (@Peoples_Pundit)

Maricopa slow walked the vote. Tomorrow it's not even a matter of whether Kari Lake wins it. It's by how much and whether the Hobbs campaign cured enough of them. We can all see the party ID which they are hiding from all of you. It's VERY Republican and Pinal still has vote.
nitter.it nitter.it

Rich Baris "The People's Pundit" (@Peoples_Pundit)

Looking at it in more detail, the Maricopa drop tonight (which we thought Lake would lose) is very similar to the batch that did in Donald Trump in 2020. Lake won it by 4, which is another out-performance vs. Donald Trump
nitter.it nitter.it
 
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HTTP Error 404 said:
He won't even read it. DMM shows up every few months when he thinks there's upset Conservatives around and tries to troll them with ragebait bullshit. His only goal is making you huff and puff and go "yes there WAS fraud" so he can laugh at you being mad.
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Oh, I missed this!

1. There are always upset Conservatives around, every second of every minute of every day.
2. No ragebait here. I let the topic go after some months because of the retarded rage and wading through bullshit, returned to see you morons saying the same dumb shit, and asked if any of you simpletons actually had something at this point. You're raging when I'm here, you're raging when I'm not here, don't have to bait shit.
3. I read EVERYTHING. KF is off the beaten trail, was hoping for some interesting nuggets to ponder. Instead, I got six links to "evidence" (which I read all of), and it was the same, old, tired bullshit of claims without any basis in reality.
4. You are right about one thing, though. I do love it when you get all mad.
 
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m1ddl3m4rch said:
Would you say a weaker "red wave" than expected was due to people from blue states fleeing to red states which ended COVID restrictions? I have the feeling red areas became redder and that's part of the supposed wave.
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That is a factor in the overall failures in former purple/swing states for sure, and why already-blue states (like where I live) are now "navy blue" with Democrat supermajorities. However, it is far from the only reason for losses. Things like really poor candidates who soured independents, MAGA candidates having their elections sabotaged by establishment RINOs, slow rolls in counties still under Democrat governance in certain red states, and more.
 
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