Russian Invasion of Ukraine Megathread - Episode III - Revenge of the Ruski (now unlocked with new skins and gameplay modes!!!)

[Rich Evans Ayypologist]

To be fair; My expectation is that if/when Russia wins this war (And I still expect them to eventually) even if they roll through the entirety of The Ukraine and attain total victory, I don't think they'll annex the place, partially for the reasons you're suggesting here.

In the immediate-term? Probably, yes. Many people suggest that this is what a ceasefire would anyways look like, though most Ukrainians seem to be in favor of continuing to fight, even if polls to that effect in Ukrainian-controlled territory are dubious. There have been some movements within the country to get the population amenable to a 'finnish' solution, supposedly, wherein the country cedes land and accepts strict neutrality in exchange for security. It is also still Russia's war to lose - the 'easy' parts of it have essentially concluded.

Over the long term, Russia would probably try (with difficulty) to rebuild its military readiness, to push for control of more of Ukraine after Western powers grow weary of supplying it with cash. The worry of many western powers is that, were Russia to creep closer to Poland, it would try to sabotage the country through subterfuge and wedge it away from the EU/NATO over the course of decades, in order to potentially siphon away some portion of it, probably relating to the areas near Kaliningrad. There's a reason that Poland, Lithuania, Lavia, Estonia etc have for a long time been worried about Russia despite being members of NATO, and that anxiety - that a desperate and unwieldy Kremlin would continue to claw westwards into NATO territory - is what has animated so many western governments to ensure that its march stops in Ukraine.

Russia has a myriad of more productive things to focus on, problems that need fixing.

Oh yeah absolutely, like that enormous demographic problem. But it isn't like the government has done anything much for its people beyond distracting from the stagnant economy by going on fun little military adventures abroad anyways. Putin will not be remembered fondly by history, given he had the ability to forge a renewed Russian identity (probably in opposition to the west), and decided instead to plunder the country.

 

[BULLY HUNTER_78]

You two sound a little sore. Need some ointment too?

Of course they're a little sore. I remember your post yesterday pointing out that there's no way it could've been a Russian missile because it was outside their theoretical max range. I also remember that post being negrated to oblivion because "muh Russian propaganda."

I'll never understand the level of butthurt in this thread. Ukraine has effectively an infinite well of finances/technology, a constant stream of international special forces, and has been slowly gaining ground against Russia ever since the failed attack on Kiev. I'd expect the winning side to be a little more smug and a little less angry.

 

[Beak Thing]

Weird, most of the footage of Ukrainian soldiers I see shows young soldiers and men in their prime, huh.

I thought it was a dig at the dismissive attitude the Russians continue to have towards the Ukrainians.

Really, if you look at how the Ukrainian forces are equipped vs. the Russians, there are big problems ahead. The Russians aren't outfitting their newly conscripted forces with quality equipment and continue to suffer problems with logistics that are only getting worse as Ukraine's advances let them strike rear areas with greater effectiveness.

Even worse, Ukraine's advances now expose previously secure areas to strikes.

 

[AnonymousKot]

To be fair; My expectation is that if/when Russia wins this war (And I still expect them to eventually) even if they roll through the entirety of The Ukraine and attain total victory, I don't think they'll annex the place, partially for the reasons you're suggesting here.

I expect the Donbass, Crimea, and a connecting strip of land between the two will be annexed, with the rest being left with The Ukraine. Maybe they'd take the whole coast though, I'm not sure.

For Russia to win the war at this point, they'd have to suddenly mass mobilize more soldiers, train them and have them sent either to the current frontlines or through Belarus, I don't doubt that Russia has the capacity to win, but at this stage, unless something radical like a revolution or coup happen, Russia won't be able to send larger numbers of men and material to Ukraine for the time being, reason is that even with a large army, Russia still has to patrol its extremely large borders and deal with domestic jihadist groups. Given this situation, its more likely that when spring comes next year that Ukraine will be able to regain more of its territory, most likely Lughansk or Zapharozia, given that these two regions aren't that heavily fortified... yet

 

[RussianBlonde]

Given that prior to 2022, there were no missiles falling on Poland, and now in 2022, there are missiles falling on Poland... I think we can put some of the blame for it on Russia. I think anyone with an above room temperature IQ can deduce that Russia firing missiles at Ukraine results in Ukraine firing air defense missiles to shoot them down, and with Ukraine and Poland sharing a border, inevitably some missiles from either side will stray across.

To just ignore all context is extremely juvenile. It would be like if someone broke into your house to murder you, and you shot them to defend yourself, and one of the bullets went through a wall and killed a neighbour. I don't think any serious person would say the blame is 100% on you and not the guy putting you in that situation.

Exactly, to just ignore all context is extremely juvenile. Maybe we need to wait and question wether Ukraine was in fact firing missiles in self defense first.
I bet you were triple masked during Covid.

Sorry, I don't believe that for a second.

If people still believe this after the Two Weeks to Flatten the Curve lies then there is no hope.

What were said Ukrainian Air Defense missiles targeting?

Where were said missiles statione

Looking at the position of the area hit to the position of Ukraine it seems unlikely that Ukraine had reason to fire interceptor missiles as their was very little time and geography for any sort of intercept.

Let's see what investigation unravels. Truth would be preferred, although I know it's unlikely.

 

[HerrKlicks]

German Chancellor Scholz with the amazing "well, actually here is how this all Putlers fault" spin



Translation:
"The horrible rocket impact in #Poland has to be investigated thoroughly.
It is good, that @NATO-Members convene quickly for this. A rushed conclusion would be Wrong.
Clearly: All this would not have happened without Russia's war of agression against #Ukraine"

Is the nigger-cattle really dumb enough to believe that bullshit?

EDIT: Also it's very telling how both Baerbocks and Scholz's tweets were sent out in polish as well. Maximum pandering.

 

[AnonymousKot]

Oh yeah absolutely, like that enormous demographic problem. But it isn't like the government has done anything much for its people beyond distracting from the stagnant economy by going on fun little military adventures abroad anyways. Putin will not be remembered fondly by history, given he had the ability to forge a renewed Russian identity (probably in opposition to the west), and decided instead to plunder the country.

To be fair, he did attempt and in some ways succeeded in creating a new identity for Russia, he managed to steer the country away from the image of the brutal communist Soviet Union and made its population identify more with as subjects of the Tsar, which is an improvement, at least the Tsars made compromises and improved their country, he tried to reconcile the Whites with the Reds which was not easy politically speaking, it sorta worked, in that when he invaded Ukraine in Feb, both whites and reds were vocally supportive of the invasion, as for plundering the country, well I can't disagree too much, he should've liquidated them during the 2008 financial crisis or at least when covid started, if he did that, all of the wealth would've flowed from the pockets of a bunch of corrupt oiligarchs to the treasury which would have been a great boon in the long term

 

[RussianBlonde]

Consider what Russia would gain if it won the war in Ukraine: it would need a massive military occupation force to pacify the population, most of the infrastructure is currently in ruins (Russia really doesn't have the capital on its own to rebuild Ukraine, given the state of its own infrastructure), and any attempts it would make at profiting off of the country's resources would doubtlessly face sabotage. But it does gain breathing room.

Have you seen Chechnya lately? Groźny looks like Dubai lol. Who do you think paid for that?

 

[Ponzo]

I mean eventually NATO has to tell them to shut the fuck up right? They are directly disagreeing with their Allies in an attempt to pull them into a world war.
View attachment 3875358

"But Article 5"


In a just world, Gaddafi would still be alive and Zelensky would be getting the bayonet treatment instead.

Have you seen Chechnya lately? Groźny looks like Dubai lol. Who do you think paid for that?

Not Dubai just yet but they sure got a lot of new towers and infrastructure in the last 10 or so years

 

[Rich Evans Ayypologist]

The Russians aren't outfitting their newly conscripted forces with quality equipment and continue to suffer problems with logistics that are only getting worse as Ukraine's advances let them strike rear areas with greater effectiveness.

Ukraine has a bit of a counterbalance: Russian kit isn't nearly as diverse. They aren't expected to operate, transport, maintain, and supply anywhere near as many different weapons as Ukraine currently is, which is something of a logistical nightmare. What units have what equipment, dictating what supplies go where, makes it critical that you get it right - that makes advancing difficult, because those munitions have to cover wider stretches of territory without error or mistake to be useful.

There are good reasons to expect the Ukrainian offensive somewhat stalls where it is, and the war either sinks into a immobile grindhouse or an uneasy calm that leads to resumed talks. Ukraine has the ability to cut off supplies from Crimea and mess with their harvests given their position on the river, meaning that Russian forces stationed there either need to make a humiliating retreat or face a slow, but certain defeat. But Crimea isn't an area that many international bodies really support returning to Ukraine (and it itself seemed content to be under Russian control, unlike the other separatist regions) - meaning there's not really anywhere left to get easy gains.

he managed to steer the country away from the image of the brutal communist Soviet Union and made its population identify more with as subjects of the Tsar

I mean, you had Gorbachev more-competently easing away from brutalism and Yeltsin more incompetently easing away from any form of sensible government, and Putin's original term was regarded brightly by world governments: a cruel and cunning, but competent and logical ruler was welcomed. He has largely used pandering towards Russian history and past glories as a stand-in for a proper 'identity,' as Russia's place in the global order at current is... essentially a supplier of commodities and an international muckraker, a far cry from being one of the preeminent world powers.

Had his reverence for Russian history inspired an explosion of artistic expression and industrial invention, it'd be a different tale - and I do think a competent regime could've engendered it. But the country lies in demographic collapse, financial meekness, and diplomatic awkwardness. Modi is telling him the invasion was a faux pas - Modi of all people.

Have you seen Chechnya lately? Groźny looks like Dubai lol. Who do you think paid for that?

Did you see the plans for Bitcoin city? El Salvador must be doing fucking baller economically

More to my point, oligarchs making themselves some fancy buildings doesn't mean much if the equipment you use to extract commodities is in bad need of repair by experts who by and large fled the country months ago.

 

[Da Grim Reaper]

All I know is that if Putin loses, he will end up like Ceausescu in 1989. Full stop.
Those veterans? They will unleash their anger on someone else, and it's not the Ukrainians.

 

[Beak Thing]

To be fair, he did attempt and in some ways succeeded in creating a new identity for Russia, he managed to steer the country away from the image of the brutal communist Soviet Union and made its population identify more with as subjects of the Tsar, which is an improvement, at least the Tsars made compromises and improved their country, he tried to reconcile the Whites with the Reds which was not easy politically speaking, it sorta worked, in that when he invaded Ukraine in Feb, both whites and reds were vocally supportive of the invasion, as for plundering the country, well I can't disagree too much, he should've liquidated them during the 2008 financial crisis or at least when covid started, if he did that, all of the wealth would've flowed from the pockets of a bunch of corrupt oiligarchs to the treasury which would have been a great boon in the long term

From 1999 when he first became President through 2013, Russia's per-capita GDP increased about 11x and there were no significant internal conflicts after the end of the Second Chechen War. Irregular conflict continued there for a while but the main military objectives were completed by 2000.

There's no real argument Putin didn't have a majorly positive impact on Russians during this period, he restored a lot of national pride and identity that had been lost during the chaos of the 1990s and significantly rebuilt a lot of infrastructure that had deteriorated as well as expanded it in other places. There is still considerable popular support for Putin in Russia for this reason.

I think the problem is the prosperity and stability either caused the government to become complacent about corruption or led to the false conclusion that these oligarchs were the ones driving Russia's economic growth. When corruption is that deeply rooted it becomes a huge problem for pretty much everything, including the military.

 

[mindlessobserver]

Wake up, and WW3 is canceled. Sigh.

 

[Badungus Kabungus]

So there are two questions left unanswered.

One, how come fancy Polish air defense systems completely ignored those missiles?

Poland receives first launchers for Narew air defense system

The first launchers for Poland's new short short-range air defense (SHORAD) system, referred to as "Mała Narew" in Polish, have arrived in the country. Polish defense major PGZ and its subsidiaries, PIT-RADWAR, JELCZ and WZU, worked with MBDA to have the first two Polish iLaunchers of the system

defbrief.com

Two, when is Ukraine going to apologize?

 

[Angelos32]

No matter what side you’re on, I think it’s hilarious how a lot of rw content creators are freaking out about zelensky still asking for NATO to intervene, when he’s been doing this for months now

 

[MrJokerRager]

So there are two questions left unanswered.

One, how come fancy Polish air defense systems completely ignored those missiles?

Poland receives first launchers for Narew air defense system

The first launchers for Poland's new short short-range air defense (SHORAD) system, referred to as "Mała Narew" in Polish, have arrived in the country. Polish defense major PGZ and its subsidiaries, PIT-RADWAR, JELCZ and WZU, worked with MBDA to have the first two Polish iLaunchers of the system

defbrief.com

Two, when is Ukraine going to apologize?

Who knew Volyn 2.0 was literally 2 dead poles, thought Bandera must be proud.

 

[There Is Light At The End]

So there are two questions left unanswered.

One, how come fancy Polish air defense systems completely ignored those missiles?

Poland receives first launchers for Narew air defense system

The first launchers for Poland's new short short-range air defense (SHORAD) system, referred to as "Mała Narew" in Polish, have arrived in the country. Polish defense major PGZ and its subsidiaries, PIT-RADWAR, JELCZ and WZU, worked with MBDA to have the first two Polish iLaunchers of the system

defbrief.com

Two, when is Ukraine going to apologize?

I don't think they will, and Poland will be very angy

 

[Beak Thing]

So there are two questions left unanswered.

One, how come fancy Polish air defense systems completely ignored those missiles?

Poland receives first launchers for Narew air defense system

The first launchers for Poland's new short short-range air defense (SHORAD) system, referred to as "Mała Narew" in Polish, have arrived in the country. Polish defense major PGZ and its subsidiaries, PIT-RADWAR, JELCZ and WZU, worked with MBDA to have the first two Polish iLaunchers of the system

defbrief.com

Two, when is Ukraine going to apologize?

First one's easy, they wouldn't deploy any kind of air defenses in a rural area far from Russia or any major Polish cities. The nearest major one is Lublin a good distance to the north.

Second one, beats me. Probably at some point soon now that there's not much dispute where these came from.

 

[Badungus Kabungus]

First one's easy, they wouldn't deploy any kind of air defenses in a rural area far from Russia or any major Polish cities. The nearest major one is Lublin a good distance to the north.

Second one, beats me. Probably at some point soon now that there's not much dispute where these came from.

Lublin is not that far away, only 80km away from the Ukrainian border. Considering just how much NATO equipment is stationed around Poland and the Baltics, they should've been able to pick up those missiles on radar before they even crossed into Poland.

Or perhaps they did detect the missiles but did nothing because they knew they came from Ukraine. Oh well.

And I would not wait for that apology.

 

[Beak Thing]

To help put this situation in perspective I'd like to share a couple of historical events, the downing of Korean Air Lines Flight 902 and Flight 007, in 1978 and 1983 respectively. Soviet air defenses shot down both civilian aircraft when they violated its airspace causing total loss of the aircraft and all passengers and crew.

This happened at the absolute nadir of US-Soviet relations (the Cuban missile crisis was more severe but short-lived, this was ongoing tension) when the USSR in fact had military supremacy over the US in the aftermath of the Vietnam War, as well as a massive nuclear arsenal far beyond what Russia or the US possess today. It wasn't until the Reagan buildup really started going in the early 1980's that the gap started to close. 1983 was of course the Able Archer year, when there was a very real possibility of a nuclear attack by the USSR due to mistaken data identified by Soviet air defense.

If the USSR could shoot down two civilian aircraft operated by a US ally causing hundreds of deaths without it going hot, at a time when the Soviets were at their maximum military strength, a couple of missiles in BF Egypt Poland weren't going to tip the scales this time around.

Lublin is not that far away, only 80km away from the Ukrainian border. Considering just how much NATO equipment is stationed around Poland and the Baltics, they should've been able to pick up those missiles on radar before they even crossed into Poland.

Or perhaps they did detect the missiles but did nothing because they knew they came from Ukraine. Oh well.

And I would not wait for that apology.

There might not be those systems deployed in Lublin...I have no idea what their distribution is though. Most likely even if they are there, they're not on active defense in this region since it's so far from any of the combat zones in eastern Ukraine and there have been no notable incidents of Russian or Ukrainian missiles or aircraft violating their airspace before this.

It also crashed so close to the border they might not have taken action since it was already on a crash course, if it was a misfire it might not even have been moving at a high velocity.

The Polish air defense may have also concluded it was a bigger risk of damage if they tried shooting it down, you're adding another missile to the situation after all.