Ofcourse it is a game changer, they can strike ammo depots, concentrations of troops and infrastructure with no impunity
And yeah, this seems like a strike to avenge the HIMARS strike. Its quite odd tho that Russia has mostly been targeting civ infrastructure and all of a sudden strikes a military concentration of troops withing 24 hours of a humiliating strike on their own troops. Why havent they done this before? There is no confirmation of massive casualties at all, it could very well be a russian propaganda spin to flex their muscles. Both Ukraine and Russia lies alot, what is telling is that the Russians confirmed a large number of casualties and lot of people are calling for persecution of the people in charge.
We simply dont know, Ukraine claims one thing, Russia claims another. We know that there is immense anger against the commanders in charge of this garrison and the stupidity to place a ton of conscripts on a focused place atop of ammunition. Regardless, its reasonable to assume hundreds of casualties, dead or not.
Russia cant win militarily at this point, all their bets are on the west ceasing support for Ukraine or destroying the civilian infrastructure to reduce public support for the war. Based on the latest numbers, the west has supported Ukraine with ammo to last until March-april, meanwhile Russia is reducing their artillery strikes to conserve ammunition. Bakhmut still holds, Russians artillery advantage has decreased, Ukraine has better access to precise artillery, Russias artillery advantage has been mostly mitigated. Attacking a fortified position of determined defenders without any sort of air support or artillery advantage means only one thing, massive casualties.