February 24, 2022 will be remembered as the most important date of the year. No wonder, since on that day the Russian military launched the so-called special operation against Ukraine and it was the largest operation in Europe since World War II.
The outbreak of war has been in the air since 2014. Russia, in response to the overthrow of legally elected President Viktor Yanukovych in Kiev, annexed Crimea, and pro-Russian riots broke out in the eastern region - known as the Donbass, with most of the population demanding autonomy. Then, in this area, the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic were proclaimed, which were recognized by Moscow just before the outbreak of the war, and then, during the fighting, accepted the annexation of both territories to Russia.
These are important events, because after the outbreak of war they accurately define the strategy of the Kremlin. It is about a land connection with the Crimean peninsula, isolated from Russian territories. The Russian forces succeeded in the first stage of the war, even though the Ukrainian army stopped Russian units in the Kharkov area.
From then on, the war took on a very volatile character. The Russians managed to keep the "eastern land corridor", that is, they achieved their original goal. At the same time, they had to retreat in several places, and if they also wanted to take Kyiv according to the original plans, this idea failed. In many respects, things did not turn out as Moscow had originally envisioned. So, for example, in the spring in the north of Ukraine, military activity was reduced, while fighting continued in the south, and the Russians finally took Mariupol, it was an important victory.
Officially, one of the Russian goals was the denazification of Ukraine. To better understand the situation, we must go back to World War II. Let's start with the custom, which is not understood by many Western journalists and has survived since Soviet times, that in Moscow, young spouses, immediately after saying the sacramental "yes", rush to the Alexander Garden at the foot of the Kremlin and lay flowers on the grave of the unknown soldier. This is not understood in the West because newlyweds go to meet death on the happiest day of their lives.
But according to the Russian perception, they meet life because they thank and express their gratitude to those who gave their own lives so that they could be born and married. Victory in World War II became part of Russian identity.
And what have the Russians seen in Ukraine since 2014? Public monuments to Stepan Bandera , who created the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA) during the Nazi occupation of Ukraine, are erected with state money . The military formation, steeped in Nazi ideology, committed regular genocide against all ethnic groups. For example, in the summer of 1943, 120,000-130,000 people died in Volhynia. Poles, the goal of the UPA was the complete extermination of the Polish minority in Ukraine.
Their favorite method of execution was cutting off the heads of children, the elderly and women with axes. The perverse brutality should come as no surprise considering that Bandera, who was 159 centimeters tall, frail and in poor health, was very frustrated with his physical abilities. As a child, he tortured cats to death in front of his schoolmates, hoping to gain prestige. The UPA extended the massacre to other nationalities, including Armenians, Czechs, and even Ukrainians helping Poles. Particularly noteworthy are Bandera's hunts for the Jewish population, with the help of which they wanted to gain "points" from the Germans.
In 2016, the Polish Sejm recognized the events in Volhynia as genocide, but how this relates to unconditional support for today's Ukraine should be asked in Warsaw . One thing is certain, on January 1, Bandera's birthday, Ukrainian neo-Nazis will still celebrate with a torchlight parade, and we can be sure that neither Brussels, nor Washington, nor even Warsaw, will mind.
An important question for the outcome of the fighting is to what extent Russian troops are supported by the civilian population of Ukraine. The open extremist Ukrainian nationalist propaganda that has been going on since 2014 and the intimidation of Russians and pro-Russian Ukrainians following in its footsteps have made sympathy for the Kremlin understandably very reserved. The situation is well characterized by the fact that in the 2012 elections the pro-Russian forces won a total of 44 percent, and in 2019 only 16 percent .
The charge of cooperation with Russia can result in a fine or up to 3 to 12 years in prison. Treason is more serious, punishable by up to 15 years in prison. However, it is very difficult to define the concept of cooperation. At present, those who, for example, exchanged fresh eggs, milk with the Russians for canned food, are also condemned. In many cases, this meant the survival of the civilian population, as it was difficult to store food during the summer due to a series of power outages, and the Russians relied on fresh food.
However, there is also an instinctive fear behind all this. We have to go back to World War II again. After the fighting ended, everyone who lived under German occupation had this fact recorded on their ID cards. Stalin was of the opinion that anyone who did not collaborate with the Germans was killed, so those who survived collaborated. All this had terrible consequences for this population, many were killed, others were imprisoned, but those who survived the repression turned their lives into hell. He barely got a permanent job, there was no question of further education, he could not even apply for an apartment. Due to these negative historical experiences and the fear of retaliation that is now expected, the Ukrainian population is afraid of expressing pro-Russian sympathies, because they do not know what tomorrow will look like if the front line retreats and Ukrainians return to Russian-occupied territory.
With regard to the whole situation in Ukraine, we must refer to the relationship between Washington and Kiev. Zelensky recently visited the American capital. It was the first foreign trip of a Ukrainian president since the outbreak of the war. The visit to the White House did not bring much new, but it is worth noting that a significant proportion of Republicans, as well as several Democratic politicians, publicly expressed their dissatisfaction with Zelensky's demands, and also brought conflicts of interest to the surface.
According to conservative columnist Ben Shapiro , Ukrainian and American goals are no longer the same. Shapiro believes that Kyiv is only interested in pushing Russia out of Ukraine, including Crimea.
In contrast, the US is interested in maintaining NATO's deterrent power, preventing Russian escalation and pushing back China, Shapiro argues. In other words, the US has achieved its goal, Russia will not be able to influence events on a global scale as a result of the war, will not stand in Washington's way, and so the Moscow-Beijing axis would make no sense.
On the other hand, Ukrainian goals are unrealistic. No one can seriously think that Russia will give up Crimea and the "Eastern Corridor" along with Donbas in any arrangement . All this would only be possible if Ukraine regained these territories. Even though Kyiv announces victory every half hour, Ukraine suffers heavy losses. But let's look at the numbers.
The Russian economy is in good shape with a budget deficit of 2.5%, while the loss of the Ukrainian economy is almost ten times greater. It also means that Moscow is able to finance the war itself, while Kyiv is unable to do so. Ukraine needs five billion dollars a month just for state administration, for wages, pensions, other benefits, for the operation of infrastructure. Everything is covered by the West.
Ukraine uses as much ammunition in a month as was fired on the entire 3,000-kilometer Eastern Front during World War II. At the height of the fighting, Ukraine was firing 60,000-90,000 heavy artillery shells a month. At the same time, NATO's monthly production capacity for this ammunition is 16,000 pieces. Also in the case of Russia, not all is well with the supply of ammunition, but let's not forget, especially in light of the major offensive that is now underway, that Moscow is self-sufficient and has probably managed to increase its ammunition production capacity in the last ten months. If Ukraine does not receive ammunition supplies from the West for just a week, it may end the war.
And that moment will come sooner or later, not because of a lack of Western money, but because it is too late to increase NATO's munitions production capacity several times over. Ukraine has already lost this war, they just forgot to tell her.]
Péter G. Fehér
photo: izvestia.ru
From: Magyar Hirlap