Russia has activated a naval assault ship (troop ship) and three (upgraded) Kilo class submarines.
Ukrainian forces will be monitoring a sudden movement of Russian warships and submarines out of their base of Novorossiysk. The naval base, near the Kerch Bridge, is further from Ukrainian controlled coast than the famous base at Sevastopol. Yet the unusual movement may be important.
www.navalnews.com
(I'd quote the article but that's pretty much all there is)
The landing ship Pyotr Morgunov is a new ship, commissioned in 2018. It carry 13 tanks, or 300 marines and 36 APCs/IFVs (aka a mechanized brigade). The Kilo class are diesel/electric anti-shipping subs.
Pyotr Morgunov seems not have anything overly note worthy about it. Its the largest landing ship Russia has in the black sea, but can only carry a mechanized or armor brigade. It is the only landing ship Russia has in the black sea capable of helicopter operations; there are other ships with similar but slightly smaller capacity but they don't have helicopter facilities; but it only has one deck and two helicopters, which isn't massive or game-changing.
When released, the Kilo class was spooky quiet; instead of working on reactors or advanced sensors, the Russians opted for acoustic paneling that made the subs almost invisible to even active SONAR. Range was limited but the whole purpose was to counter US SSBNs and any possibility of naval landings in siberia.
Now the Kilo has lost most of its edge. The paneling is defeated by modern sonars, the lack of range really hampers operations
The Kilo has no missile capacity*, and Ukraine has practically no navy. Submarines are very bad at interdicting shipping except by destruction, and I don't think Putin is ready to take this to "civilian grain ships on the bottom" levels yet, but who the fuck knows. Its clown world.
*It has no missile tubes but has the ability to launch torpedoes that are launchers for anti-ship/anti-sub missles.
So I think one of these/some combination of these
> Gay op. An armor brigade is not small force, but its not going to last long or do much without support. But having this ship out at sea means Ukraine needs to keep an eye on it. Russia has 9 ships in the black sea (4 stations and 5 transferred from other fleets right before the festivities began) with brigade-level capacity, and if all are engaged that is significant force capacity.
> Its just a drill. Russia may be testing naval readiness, or they may be performing anti-drone drills. They may also be testing the feasibility of supplying/reinforcing Crimea via Sea if they lose their land supply and the bridge over the straights gets cut.
> 5th column; Subs could carry special forces and explosives/weapons that could be inserted along the coast.
> Anti-Drone; there was video of supposed naval drones attack on the russian landing ships, and some explosions in Svastopol also from naval drones, so the subs might be going out to watch for other naval drones.
My personal guess is drills/readiness operations for Pyotr (supply crimea or prepare for landings), and the subs providing security so there isn't another engine fire.
Would imagine that the Yook crews are pretty skilled at this point.