War Invasion of Ukraine News Megathread - Thread is only for articles and discussion of articles, general discussion thread is still in Happenings.

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President Joe Biden on Tuesday said that the United States will impose sanctions “far beyond” the ones that the United States imposed in 2014 following the annexation of the Crimean peninsula.

“This is the beginning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine,” Biden said in a White House speech, signaling a shift in his administration’s position. “We will continue to escalate sanctions if Russia escalates,” he added.

Russian elites and their family members will also soon face sanctions, Biden said, adding that “Russia will pay an even steeper price” if Moscow decides to push forward into Ukraine. Two Russian banks and Russian sovereign debt will also be sanctioned, he said.

Also in his speech, Biden said he would send more U.S. troops to the Baltic states as a defensive measure to strengthen NATO’s position in the area.

Russia shares a border with Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.

A day earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered troops to go into the separatist Donetsk and Lugansk regions in eastern Ukraine after a lengthy speech in which he recognized the two regions’ independence.

Western powers decried the move and began to slap sanctions on certain Russian individuals, while Germany announced it would halt plans to go ahead with the Russia-to-Germany Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

At home, Biden is facing bipartisan pressure to take more extensive actions against Russia following Putin’s decision. However, a recent poll showed that a majority of Americans believe that sending troops to Ukraine is a “bad idea,” and a slim minority believes it’s a good one.

All 27 European Union countries unanimously agreed on an initial list of sanctions targeting Russian authorities, said French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, and EU foreign affairs head Josep Borell claimed the package “will hurt Russia … a lot.”

Earlier Tuesday, Borell asserted that Russian troops have already entered the Donbas region, which comprises Donetsk and Lugansk, which are under the control of pro-Russia groups since 2014.

And on Tuesday, the Russian Parliament approved a Putin-back plan to use military force outside of Russia’s borders as Putin further said that Russia confirmed it would recognize the expanded borders of Lugansk and Donetsk.

“We recognized the states,” the Russian president said. “That means we recognized all of their fundamental documents, including the constitution, where it is written that their [borders] are the territories at the time the two regions were part of Ukraine.”

Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Putin said that Ukraine is “not interested in peaceful solutions” and that “every day, they are amassing troops in the Donbas.”

Meanwhile, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday morning again downplayed the prospect of a Russian invasion and proclaimed: “There will be no war.”

“There will not be an all-out war against Ukraine, and there will not be a broad escalation from Russia. If there is, then we will put Ukraine on a war footing,” he said in a televised address.

The White House began to signal that they would shift their own position on whether it’s the start of an invasion.

“We think this is, yes, the beginning of an invasion, Russia’s latest invasion into Ukraine,” said Jon Finer, the White House deputy national security adviser in public remarks. “An invasion is an invasion and that is what is underway.”

For weeks, Western governments have been claiming Moscow would invade its neighbor after Russia gathered some 150,000 troops along the countries’ borders. They alleged that the Kremlin would attempt to come up with a pretext to attack, while some officials on Monday said Putin’s speech recognizing the two regions was just that.

But Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters Tuesday that Russia’s “latest invasion” of Ukraine is threatening stability in the region, but he asserted that Putin can “still avoid a full blown, tragic war of choice.”

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I didn't see this posted and it has a relevance as an insight into the Russian military. Suggests its famous smoke trail from the mazut was a part of result of the sludge not being pre-heated before ignition. What a shoddy joke of a vessel.


Modified T-55 (Israeli made gun, a version of the old British Royal Ordnance L7 105mm rifled gun armour and digital ballistic computer and stabilization fire-control system for same), the M-55 sent to Ukraine by Slovenia who tried to use a donation of these to Ukraine to get better gear, It was to be a trade where Slovenia received German military vehicles like Marders and Leopard 2s, but they got greedy wanting more than that, so 28 of these tanks were donated.

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Then, in 2022, the M-55S came into media attention when it was announced in September 2022 that Slovenia would donate 28 of its M-55S to Ukraine in support of the latter’s conflict with Russia. In return for this donation, Slovenia would receive 35 military trucks from Germany.


Initially, in April 2022, Slovenia had actually agreed to donate 30 of its more modern (in comparison to the M-55S) M-84 tanks to Ukraine in exchange for German military vehicles such as the Leopard 2 tank, Marder Infantry Fighting Vehicle and Fuchs Armoured Personnel Carrier.

However, that deal fell apart in July when Slovenia demanded more than 15 Leopard 2A4s that were offered by Germany.

Instead, Slovenia agreed to provide 28 M-55S to Ukraine (there was no information on the status of the remaining two M-55S that were not donated) in September with all tanks being delivered in late October of 2022, roughly a month after the initial announcement.

There were no indicators if the delay was merely the length of time to move the M-55S out of storage to send to Ukraine, or if the tanks had been further upgraded prior to being delivered to the Ukrainian Army.
Tankhistoria

While it's life span might be short against modern MBTs and infantry anti-tank weapons and even drones, these could probably do a decent job in rear area tasks and in areas without MBTs. Perhaps they're trainers now. Again, apologies if posted already.
 
There's a ten-tweet thread listing warning signs of an imminent second mobilization, which this time will make sure no one slips through the cracks. Screenshot of opening tweet (but the whole thing is worth reading):
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A few lesser news sources are reporting Rogov's claim that Putin is about to make a very important announcement, which may be mobilization, but may be nothing.

First few paragraphs:
Vladimir Putin is set to make an 'important statement' about his invasion, according to a Moscow-appointed official in a Russian-occupied region of Ukraine.

Vladimir Rogov, a member of the Administration Council of the Zaporizhzhia region, announced the Russian president would be delivering the speech on Wednesday.

The address will be part of events marking the 80th anniversary of when Russians broke the siege of Leningrad by the forces of Nazi Germany, when Soviet forces managed to open a narrow land corridor to the city on 18 January 1943.
 
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Tankhistoria

While it's life span might be short against modern MBTs and infantry anti-tank weapons and even drones, these could probably do a decent job in rear area tasks and in areas without MBTs. Perhaps they're trainers now. Again, apologies if posted already.

Didn't see this one.
These don't necessarily need to hang against modern MBTs. Russia is refurbing their stock of T-62s, and nearly anything post-WWII is going to have a gun that'll take out a BMP.

This new phase of the conflict is absolutely bonkers. You've got both sides hauling out museum pieces that should be getting their golden senior cards. If Tom Clancy had written a book about Ukraine and Russia entering a conflict over Ukraine joining NATO, and Russia's tank divisions getting so eaten up they had pull T-62s out of storage, and Ukraine was getting supplied by central europe with modified T-55s, everyone would have said he'd have lost his mind.
 
Another mobilization is lose-lose for Ukraine IMO.
I know it's tempting to beat chest and mock the pro-Russia side for their losses and the alleged need to mobilize yet again, but even more Russians getting thrown in the battle cannot be good in any way and it shows that Putin doesn't plan to let go or freeze the conflict any time soon and likely wants to slowly grind down as many Ukrainians as possible while these new forces gather in Belarus for another potential go at decapitating the regime in Kiev.
Ukraine simply needs far more help, IMO. Stalemate and these WW1-like trench battles do not advantage it. It needs long range missiles to be able to strike the supply depots, it needs intelligence about where troops are trained and where aircraft and munition etc. is stored, and needs to preserve as many soldiers as possible, play smart, strike and retreat, mine everything, harass Russian positions endlessly and infiltrate and sabotage as much as possible inside enemy territory. Limited resources, and better resources too.
Far too many losses and carnage. Gotta play smarter, but for that they need more modern, long range weaponry.
 
Another mobilization is lose-lose for Ukraine IMO.
I know it's tempting to beat chest and mock the pro-Russia side for their losses and the alleged need to mobilize yet again, but even more Russians getting thrown in the battle cannot be good in any way and it shows that Putin doesn't plan to let go or freeze the conflict any time soon and likely wants to slowly grind down as many Ukrainians as possible while these new forces gather in Belarus for another potential go at decapitating the regime in Kiev.
Ukraine simply needs far more help, IMO. Stalemate and these WW1-like trench battles do not advantage it. It needs long range missiles to be able to strike the supply depots, it needs intelligence about where troops are trained and where aircraft and munition etc. is stored, and needs to preserve as many soldiers as possible, play smart, strike and retreat, mine everything, harass Russian positions endlessly and infiltrate and sabotage as much as possible inside enemy territory. Limited resources, and better resources too.
Far too many losses and carnage. Gotta play smarter, but for that they need more modern, long range weaponry.
Grinding attritional warfare may seemingly play to Russia's strengths, but the truth is, neither side wants this war to bog down. Russia is losing young men it can't replace, due to its own demographics, and losing equipment it can't easily replace for minimal gains. The longer this war goes on, the worse the economic outlook gets for the Russian economy. Aid is ramping up for Ukraine in the form of Patriots and tanks, which will change the strategic outlook on the ground drastically. The way things are looking now, its probably only a matter of time before strategic weaponry is being sent over. Hell, you can argue that with the Patriots, it already is being sent over.

I'm also willing to bet that this attritional period is only temporary. Neither side can attempt a major offensive during this period because the ground is too wet for vehicles. This has been an unusually warm winter, so things haven't really frozen over for a major winter offensive. Everybody is expecting major offensives in the Spring, which, may work to Russia's advantage, assuming they can dig in appropriately using the time afforded to them by the weather. But these types of grinding offensives only sap troops from more pressing fronts where real breakthroughs can happen.
 
Another mobilization is lose-lose for Ukraine IMO.
In the immediate short term, yes. But it's pulling healthy young men out of their jobs in industry or finance or research or whatever, and sending them to die for a few centimeters of land. It's slowly gutting Russia's economic potential and thus ultimately its ability to wage war. And that's not to mention the longer term: a generation of potential fathers is being thrown away.
 
In the immediate short term, yes. But it's pulling healthy young men out of their jobs in industry or finance or research or whatever, and sending them to die for a few centimeters of land. It's slowly gutting Russia's economic potential and thus ultimately its ability to wage war. And that's not to mention the longer term: a generation of potential fathers is being thrown away.
I'm very confused, are you arguing there's an upside to the mobilization, or agreeing with him that's it's a lose-lose scenario?
Because what you described sure as hell sounds like a lose-lose scenario.
 

Not much physically happening worth reporting on.
This speculation is interesting though:
Ukrainian officials continued to suggest that Russian forces may be preparing for a decisive effort in Luhansk Oblast. Luhansk Oblast Head Serhiy Haidai stated that a large-scale Russian offensive in Luhansk Oblast is possible and that Russian forces continue to routinely transfer reinforcements to the Kreminna-Svatove line.[25] ISW has assessed that Russian forces are likely preparing for a decisive effort in Luhansk Oblast.[26] Haidai also claimed that Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups disguised in Ukrainian uniforms tried to break through Ukrainian defenses in an unspecified area of Luhansk Oblast.[27]

likely wants to slowly grind down as many Ukrainians as possible while these new forces gather in Belarus for another potential go at decapitating the regime in Kiev.
It's highly unlikely that would work.
If Russia couldn't do it with the element of surprise acting in their favor, what makes you think they can do that with their cover blown, the Ukrainian reserves called up, and bearing straight into the teeth of fortified positions?

Its more likely they would be thrown in to exploit gains in the Donbass while trying to mire down or stave off counter-offensives in Zaporizhia and Luhansk.
I'm very confused, are you arguing there's an upside to the mobilization, or agreeing with him that's it's a lose-lose scenario?
Because what you described sure as hell sounds like a lose-lose scenario.
The individual said its a lose-lose for Ukraine if Russia shits out another mobilization.
 
I'm very confused, are you arguing there's an upside to the mobilization, or agreeing with him that's it's a lose-lose scenario?
Because what you described sure as hell sounds like a lose-lose scenario.

I think what he's saying is that in the short term its lose for Ukraine having to fight more Russians, but in the longer run Russia meatgrindering the peak of its population is going to remove Russia's ability to keep their war economy going.

I think that's being ridiculously optimistic. Germany was fighting a two front war despite being hopelessly outnumbered and the only result after losing was the government being infiltrated by Statsi manchurian candidates that are forced to kowtow to Turkey's political wishes.
Oh...hmmm...

There was speculation NATO was withholding them due to concerns of Ukraine striking too far into Russian territory and escalating the situation. Don't remember where I read it.
When everyone is saying "Why don't we just give Ukraine TacNukes and power armor?" its very key to remember a few things.
Chiefly, Ukraine is populated by slavs.

And that I mean there is deep and ingrained corruption, fiefdom, nepotism, and immediate-thinking that has not been rooted out, only reduced.
Daily reminder
- Ukraine in the 90s (when they were still a russian puppet) sold soviet cruise missiles to Iran that they had been paid to destroy which is the only reason Iran (and N Korea) have the missiles they do.
-Ukraine has not always been kind to its neighbors
- Even in the current conflict there are cases of weapons going missing or reported "lost", probably to turn up in the Middle East or Africa.

The government and military got a bit shake up in 2014, and the upper brass got another cleaning post invasion, but you can only go so far.

I guess tl;dr, when you give something to Ukraine, you have to trust them to give it back or to trust them with it after. You have to trust that some general isn't going to sell the high-speed bits to Iran or China (or Russia). You also have to count on the not impossible chance Ukraine suffers defeat or a fresh Russian assault doesn't push the lines forcing Ukraine to abandon weapons - weapons Russia would be all to happy to sell.

Let's pretend that in the ultimate example of Top 10 Anime Master Plans that Lockheed martin has run the F-16 line full tilt, as hard as they have ever run it, while Ukrainian pilots have been covertly training, and suddenly on May 9, the skies are filled with 400 F-16s. With ground crews trained to Seven Days War levels of 'get those fuckers back in the air', over the next month they just hammer every russian position and Russia gives up, returns seized territory, and Ukraine joins NATO.

If we want to pretend 50% losses, Ukraine now has 200 advanced fighters, nearly more than any nation in Europe. Russia is also battered, and Ukraine has more western weapons than it will ever get again; who says they don't want a little revenge, and decide that Novogrod needs to stop existing, or that Belgorod would be sufficient reparations? Who says they don't decide Belarus should now be Northern Ukraine?

Again, this isn't a reason to let Russia just steamroll them because Muh Greater Russian Empire or w/e, but in addition to logistics issues its something to think about when wondering why certain weapons/systems are being held back.
(Not applicable to the Leopard; Germany doesn't want to give them the Leopard because they are eurocucks and concerned what a smoldering hulk will do to sales)
 
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(Not applicable to the Leopard; Germany doesn't want to give them the Leopard because they are eurocucks and concerned what a smoldering hulk will do to sales)
I figured the Germans are cucking out because they're still hung up on WW2 guilt and don't want to see German made tanks kill poor Russians. They still put this pathetic show every year:

EXj0eWRXsAE1QjL.jpg_large.jpg
"Russia, thank you so much for raping our grandparents and stealing Konigsberg!"
 
The Dutch are sending Patriots now:
Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte told US President Joe Biden on Tuesday that the Netherlands would offer Patriot missiles to Ukraine, Reuters reports.

The Netherlands will join the United States and Germany in sending the Patriot missile defense system to Ukraine, Rutte told Biden at the White House.
“I think that it’s important we join that and I discussed it also this morning with Olaf Scholz of Germany,” Rutte said.
Biden told Rutte he looked forward to discussing ways to strengthen the supply chain as he welcomed the prime minister to the White House. Biden also thanked Rutte for being “very very stalwart” on its support for Ukraine.

Rutte said the Netherlands has decided to spend an additional 2.5 billion euros ($2.70 billion) supporting Ukraine, an announcement the government made previously.

Trade Minister Liesje Schreinemacher said on Sunday the Netherlands would not summarily accept demands by the United States on chip technology. Biden and Rutte are expected to discuss further support to Ukraine, “as well as further cooperation in the fields of defense and security and strengthening of the bilateral trade relationship,” a Dutch statement said.

The other agenda item discussed: US concerns with the Netherlands suppying semiconductors to China:
WASHINGTON, Jan 17 (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte held wide-ranging talks on Tuesday that included a discussion on Dutch concerns about new U.S. restrictions on exporting chip-making technology to China.

"It did come up in their conversation," White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters after the talks.

Rutte told Biden of Dutch plans to offer the Patriot missile defense system to Ukraine, working together with Germany on an initiative to help Ukraine defend itself from a barrage of missile attacks from Russia.

"I think that it's important we join that and I discussed it also this morning with Olaf Scholz of Germany," Rutte said.

Biden told Rutte he looked forward to discussing ways to strengthen the supply chain as he welcomed the prime minister to the White House. Biden also thanked Rutte for being "very very stalwart" on its support for Ukraine.

Rutte said the Netherlands has decided to spend an additional 2.5 billion euros ($2.70 billion) supporting Ukraine, an announcement the government made previously.

Trade Minister Liesje Schreinemacher said on Sunday the Netherlands would not summarily accept demands by the United States on chip technology.

Jean-Pierre did not have details of the conversation between Biden and Rutte on chips but said: "We don't push any of our allies or our partners, we consult with each one of them closely and they make their own decisions."

A White House statement on the talks said Biden and Rutte "discussed the importance of secure supply chains and critical technologies to our national security and economic prosperity."

The United States in October adopted sweeping measures to hobble China's ability to make its own chips, and U.S. trade officials said at the time they expected the Netherlands and Japan to implement similar rules soon.

The Netherlands' largest company is ASML Holding, a supplier to the semiconductor industry.

Rutte told reporters on Friday that he did not feel pressure from Washington to adopt more restrictions on semiconductor exports to China.

“This is a terrain where we're a world player and we can conduct discussions about it without immediately talking in terms ... of being 'put under pressure'. I don't experience it like that at all," he said.

($1 = 0.9267 euros)

For those interested:
 
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There was speculation NATO was withholding them due to concerns of Ukraine striking too far into Russian territory and escalating the situation. Don't remember where I read it.
Yeah, this has been the state reason the U.S. has refused to send them long range armaments, like the longest range missiles the HIMARS can fire. The HIMARS should be able to hit targets well across the border in Russia, but the U.S. has always cited "escalation" as a reason to not send anything. I wouldn't be surprised though if Ukraine is pressuring the U.S. to give them longer range armaments. In my opinion, Ukraine won't be able to make its best headway until it can hit ammo depots, air bases, port facilities and other targets in Russia itself, which would starve its army. Russia is clearly showing not holding back, so at this point, I'd say that escalation is a moot point. What's Russia going to do? Declare war on NATO so it can get its shit even more pushed in than it is already?
 
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Russia should halt its efforts to recruit Serbs to fight alongside its Wagner paramilitary group in Ukraine, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said.

Vucic criticised Russia's websites and social media groups for publishing advertisements in the Serbian language in which the Wagner group calls volunteers to join its ranks.

“Why do you, from Wagner, call anyone from Serbia when you know that it is against our regulations?” Vucic said late on Monday in a broadcast by the Belgrade-based Happy TV.

Serb volunteers took part in the fighting alongside pro-Russian forces in Ukraine in 2014 and 2015. No one has a clear idea of exact numbers at any one time but dozens of Serbs have signed up to fight in Ukraine since 2014, observers say.

The Serbian legislature bans participation of its citizens in conflicts abroad and several people have been sentenced for doing so.

Vucic denied allegations that the Wagner group, led by Evgeny Prigozhin, a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, has a presence in Serbia where pro-Kremlin and ultranationalist organisations have supported the invasion of Ukraine.

On Tuesday, Russia's RIA news agency aired TV footage of two masked men identifying them as Serb volunteers at a weapons training course in Russian-controlled parts of the Zaporizhzhia region in Ukraine.

Serbia is a candidate to join the European Union, its main trade partner and investor, but it also maintains trade and military cooperation with Russia, a traditional Slavic and Orthodox Christian ally.

Serbian Defence Minister Milos Vucevic also warned Serbs against joining Russian ranks in the war against Ukraine.

"This will result in legal consequences once they are able to be held responsible before the state bodies,” Vucevic told Radio Free Europe.

Although it repeatedly condemned Russia's invasion against Ukraine at the United Nations and several other international forums, Belgrade has also refused to impose sanctions against Moscow.

Serbia is entirely dependent on gas imports from Russia and its NIS oil retailer is owned by Russia's Gazprom.

(A)
I love that the Serbian TV channel is named Happy TV lmao. Nothing but happy thoughts when the average person thinks of Serbia.

Leader of Wagner is gonna get novichok'd if he doesn't stop pissing on Putins PR.

Edit: Because it popped into my head. Ukraine should forcefully conscript CRP/Gonzalo Lira as a war photographer. Every video will have 8 dozen unnecessary angles.
 
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Sixteen people have been killed, including Ukraine's interior affairs minister, after a helicopter crashed beside a kindergarten in an eastern suburb of the capital Kyiv.
Two children were among the dead and 10 more are being treated in hospital.
The minister, Denys Monastyrsky, was with eight others in the helicopter.
His first deputy minister and the state secretary also died, officials said, when the helicopter came down in the suburb of Brovary.

Rekt. Purge, or accident?
 


Rekt. Purge, or accident?
Or Russian orchestrated assassination.
Tbh I'm going with accident. Those things do happen, and I'd be more likely to believe it was an assassination if it was shot down, Operation Vengeance-style (context: the US Air Force sent fighters to intercept and shoot down a plane carrying a Jap Admiral). And a purge wouldn't have needed a helicopter to get wrecked, after all, there are plenty of windows on upper floors.
 

US has moved munitions stored in Israel for use by Ukraine​



The United States has transferred American munitions stored in Israel for use in Ukraine and plans to send more soon, US and Israeli officials told CNN Wednesday.

A US official told CNN they have moved “some” of the 300,000 155-millimeter shells that the US and Israel agreed would be transferred, and that there are plans to move the remaining amount in the coming weeks.

Israel Defense Forces spokesperson Richard Hecht told CNN that the Americans notified the Israelis a while ago they were transferring munitions. Hecht said the munitions are US-owned, that their movements are “American business” and that they don’t need Israeli permission to move the munitions.

The New York Times first reported the American military is tapping into its munitions stockpile stored in Israel for use in Ukraine, noting Israeli officials had initially expressed “concerns about appearing complicit in arming Ukraine.”

Israel has been walking a fine diplomatic line during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While Israeli leaders have condemned the invasion, supported Ukraine in the United Nations, sent humanitarian aid and taken in refugees, Israel has drawn a hard line at sending military aid, citing its own security sensitivities. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said before he took office at the end of December that he would review Israel’s policy on Russia’s war in Ukraine.

The strain on weapons stockpiles – and the ability of the US industrial base to keep up with demand – is one of the key challenges facing the Biden administration as the US continues to send billions of dollars of weapons to Ukraine to support its fight against Russia. CNN previously reported a US official said the stockpiles of certain systems are “dwindling” after months of sending supplies to Kyiv during the high-intensity war, as there’s “finite amount” of excess stocks which the US has available to send.

CNN reported in November that the US intended to buy 100,000 rounds of artillery ammunition from South Korean arms manufacturers to provide to Ukraine as part of a broader effort to find available weaponry for the high-intensity battles unfolding in Ukraine.

Brovary crash helicopter "repeatedly involved" in transporting personnel to emergency sites​


The helicopter which crashed in Brovary on Wednesday "was repeatedly involved in the transportation of personnel to emergency sites," said the State Emergency Services of Ukraine (SES).

The SES added in a Facebook post that these "Super Puma" ES-225 aircraft are used "often due to the ability to transport a sufficient number of people at the same time."

"The crew of the aircraft was trained to perform tasks in difficult conditions and had the required number of hours of flying time on ES-225 helicopters," it added.


Meeting between heads of Russian and US intelligence agencies was "useful," says Lavrov​


A meeting between Russian and US intelligence chiefs in November was "useful" but did not produce any "breakthroughs," said Russia's foreign minister on Wednesday.

Sergey Naryshkin, director of Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service, and William Burns, CIA director, met at the headquarters of Turkey’s National Intelligence Organization in Ankara on November 14.

"They know that we will respond seriously to serious requests: Biden asked Putin for Naryshkin to meet with Burns, and the meeting took place," Sergey Lavrov said during a press conference on the results of Russia’s diplomatic activities in 2022.

"Yes, it was quite serious and useful, although it did not bring any breakthroughs," he said.

"We did not break this dialogue. We have not broken off any of the areas of our cooperation. The USA broke them off," said Lavrov. "We are not going to run after them and say let’s be friends again."
On Tuesday, Naryshkin said that another meeting with Burns was possible, according to Russian state news agency TASS.

Asked whether another such meeting could take place, Naryshkin said "this is possible," adding the time for a new potential meeting would be determined "by agreement" between the parties, according to TASS.

 
Yeah, this has been the state reason the U.S. has refused to send them long range armaments, like the longest range missiles the HIMARS can fire. The HIMARS should be able to hit targets well across the border in Russia, but the U.S. has always cited "escalation" as a reason to not send anything. I wouldn't be surprised though if Ukraine is pressuring the U.S. to give them longer range armaments. In my opinion, Ukraine won't be able to make its best headway until it can hit ammo depots, air bases, port facilities and other targets in Russia itself, which would starve its army. Russia is clearly showing not holding back, so at this point, I'd say that escalation is a moot point. What's Russia going to do? Declare war on NATO so it can get its shit even more pushed in than it is already?
Well, for one, Putin's government might have an excuse for full mobilization without any pretenses at that point, and that's not a good thing. Russia IS an authoritarian state, but they still have to think about how to sell this war to the populace, and it's harder to do when people who's used to peaceful daily life are suddenly called up to die en masse. They're walking on eggshells here, risking to piss people off.
They're used to not having to contend with public opinion because said public didn't care - "Do whatever you want, just leave me alone" sorta thing. It's hard not to care when your very life is at stake, and far more people realize who's really threatening their life in this situation than you might think.

Fossils that make up the bulk of Putin's support are irrelevant to the matter, conscription isn't going to affect them, for them war would remain to be just a TV show regardless.
Government is smart enough to know what, which is why they're always trying to diminish these things. Mobilization is only "partial" (even though the official document doesn't indicate any sort of partiality), it's only a special military operation (and not at all a war), it's no biggie at all. That's what they want people to believe, you gotta wonder why.
Mobilization is very much a double-edged sword, it will inevitably lead to increased discontent domestically, which isn't something Putin wants. They know it.
And of course I want to believe this myself, because I don't want to deal with all that shit. The longer they hesitate, better it is for the few Russians who isn't out of their mind.

Ah, right, missiles. I almost forgot. Or they might just suck it like with some bombings inside Russia that Ukraine conducted prior. Wouldn't be much point in mobilization even, when all the ammo is burning, eh?
 
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