- Joined
- Oct 20, 2019
It's not a lost cause, it's just not their cause. America can still get what it wants out of this. For the Western Ukranians, no - not any time soon. Maybe ten or twenty years down the line if the US or Poland successfully drag NATO into this in a more direct way in which case retaken territory from Russia would likely be returned to Ukraine. But by that point Ukraine would be... I don't know really. You'd have had many years of war, civilian population would all be fled or conscripted. You'd have more Ukranians living in Poland by that point than the Ukraine. Ukraine as a political entity would be wholly dependent on the US and with (imo) USAs likely economic troubles in the near future I think domestic willingness to continue to pay for a foreign country's domestic infrastructure, salaries, welfare, etc. is going to become untenable.
I mean, Ukraine needs outside investment. Its economy has collapsed, government wages are paid by the USA, infrastructure requiring a lot of repair, large numbers of its civilian workforce are now conscripted into the army. The problem for Ukraine is that if it sues for peace, and is serious about it, then it loses American backing. If Ukraine doesn't play ball with America and continue to sacrifice its people to try and dislodge Russians from Sevastopol - which I think is what the US neocons are now readjusting to thinking of as their "get something out of this" compromise, then the US will hang Western Ukranians out to dry.
I think that's a likely outcome, by the way. Unless NATO goes in officially and in a big way - which is World War III - then I don't think Eastern Ukraine is being retaken. If Ukraine gives up on Bakhmut and its surroundings now then they're not getting that back and they know that and that's why they're clinging on so desperately and want to resist the US pressure to redirect towards Melitopol / Crimea supply routes. The USA wanted NATO troops and missiles on the Eastern borders of Ukraine I believe, but reality is setting in for them and I think they are now saying in the corridors of power "same plan, but further West - get Crimea and Sevastopol". Russia will not give up Crimea. It cannot give up Crimea. It looks like a lot of people are about to die trying to take it. It's all too awful for words. Maybe they'll succeed, with the help of Polish forces, but I much more suspect what will happen is that it'll provide the opportunity for Russia to roll up the rest of Donbas which is most of what they want. Possibly they'll go all the way up to the Dnieper though I suspect not (30/70 imo). And then they'll start to consolidate and rebuild and fortify for the long-haul. Meanwhile fighting in the South will be a bloodbath for both sides, ultimately fizzling out into America's desired permanent bleeding of Russia but not Americas desired driving them out of Crimea. Ultimately even that will fizzle out with Russia's control over the territory becoming more and more accepted reality as time goes on. By that point domestic will in Western Europe and the USA to keep funnelling money into it will be gone. Western Ukraine will be destitute and awash with purloined weapons. Which will seep into neighbouring countries. Maybe Poland will snaffle up Lviv but it will be de facto for a long time before it is official if so.
It's really hard to predict what will happen long-term: maybe Germany will discover a backbone and tell the USA "nein" (who am I kidding). Poland is becoming the premier military force in Eastern Europe. Maybe they'll start getting beligerant (I suspect they have more sense, though). Probably domestic economic problems in the USA will force it to reign in its ambitions though as I suggested earlier. Polish people will probably get sick of Ukranian refugees and start pushing back at that harder. Although the one Polish dude I knew who still lived there was practically salivating at the thought of tens of thousands of desperate Ukranian women flooding his country whose husbands were dead or destitute!
None of it spells out a hopeful future for Ukranians. The Zelensky government went all in with America. I think they're trying to extract themselves from being so wholly in America's power. Which will be messy. And if that recent helicopter crash wasn't an accident, then it already is. Ditto you see Arestovich removed. Some conflict is going on behind the scenes between Ukraine and American interests, I think.There's no good options for the Ukranian govt. But for Ukranian people, I think best of a bad lot is sue for peace with Russia - recognize the breakaway territories as, at least the Donbas and Luhansk - as independent (well, as Russian - too late for "independent" now.
). And then... try to do whatever minimum is necessary to stop the USA sponsoring another coup to kick it off again.Whatever happens, I'm sure I will be sending money support ordinary Ukranians for a long time to come. They'll need it. I don't like all this "hohol" stuff. Most Ukranians didn't want this. Hell, most didn't want to keep shelling Donbas as Zelensky was elected on a platform of reconciliation then stabbed the populace in the back. I think fears of a belligerant Russia seeking to occupy Eastern Europe are misplaced. Russia doesn't want that and it's not in Russia's interests. They don't need masses of "living room", they're not threatened by their neighbouring countries (just US proxy forces in those countries) and they don't need the natural resources of those countries. Trying to occupy parts of Eastern Europe is only a headache for them. Occupation pressures to Eastern Europe are from Middle Eastern and African immigration. Not Russian militaries.
