There is no way in hell the U.S. will not perceive a blockade of Taiwan as a direct threat to the island and its strategic value to the U.S. And any blockade would have an immediate disruption to the global supply chain.
Say that to the people getting literally shelled right now in Ukraine, Russia pushed the borders, annexed a few counties, and what is the international response to a
legitimate country in Europe under constant threat? Fuck all militaristically. We
had a global supply chain blockade stress test, the worst ever in just the last two years, and guess what, USA is back at the negotiating table with China. I'll address your ill informed preconceptions on how the chip supply chain works below.
Once again, Taiwan supplies over 90% of the world's semiconductors, including the ones the U.S. uses in its weapons systems. That makes any blockade attempt a direct existential threat to the United States. And any blockade will not cause an instantaneous collapse of the island. As I said, the longer this drags out, the higher the chance of U.S. involvement.
First off, Taiwan does not supply that much chips to the world, as many are actually made in mainland China, with additives on Taiwan. Many are actually done vice versa, and both labled either China, or Taiwan depending on which is more convenant for the manufacturer. It is especially more important now when a lot of the "fabs" are now "moved" to SEA, while shipping the product back into China for assembly, either way China still makes up a huge portion of the non blockaded chips that we use everyday either directly or indirectly.
It is in this myriad of cooperations and companies that the US has found a secure chain of production for its mission critical hardware for military use. Where as it is possible to slot in one Mainland Registered company with one from Taiwan, or SEA. This myth of how Taiwan is a bus factor for US military defense is greatly exaggerated as a lot of the TSMC fabs and accompanying industries are actually multi national companies with competitors that could take their job in an instant.
Any security check that isn't a full blockade is capable of choking out Taiwan in a matter of months. Simply the discouragement caused by the CCP ships waiving LNG ships every time it passes to Taiwan is enough to greatly effect an already electricity deficient island. These legal checkpoints and UN ruled international waters have not, and will not be contested by the US. To further the point, the PLA can lockdown and quarantine the entire island as described in the rand corporation analysis, and Taiwan will be in chaos within a week after all of the energy runs out for electrical power.
The U.S. aims to avoid conflict until such a time as its unavoidable. A military blockade is a direct military act that requires a military response. Once that happens, all bets are off the table, which is why China has not been stupid enough to even attempt something like that.
Your assumptions of military blockade is wrong, especially in contested waters where the UN did not ratify any surrounding sea region of Taiwan being independent. In fact, Taiwan is technically still China where as no other jurisdiction has power to say what goes on in the land of China. The PRC Have already proven with its militaristic abilities with the Nanci and Guam incidents, which you didn't even bother to address because those are inconvenient facts for you that destroy most of the basis of your arguments.
Taiwan is not Ukraine. Taiwan is directly strategically important to U.S. interests. In Ukraine, the U.S.'s best interest is to turn the conflict into a stalemate and bleed Russia dry trying to take Ukraine, thus ensuring that Russia will not be a threat to the region in the future because it will be too tired to wage anymore wars. For Taiwan, the U.S.'s strategic interests are to keep the island out of Chinese hands at all costs, and end the conflict as quickly as possible. Two very different situations.
Taiwan is "important" to US strategic interests because making conflict around the world and stopping other region's social and economic development is to "protect" US interests. America can not surpass Europe if it didn't start the war in Ukraine, and Taiwan is America's foothold to generate more conflict in Asia before China is perceived to surpass the US.
Taiwan is officially called the Republic Of China, and saying words like "keep the island out of Chinese hands" is monumentally stupid as there is still around half of the population here that identifies as Chinese. I'm appalled at your lack of knowledge and and at you for pushing these false points for a war mongering side of America.
The idea of nuking TSMC is a literal last resort to keep it out of Chinese hands. Remember how I said that many of the chips used in U.S. weapons systems are made on the island. The U.S. does not want that falling into Chinese hands. But more to the point, the fact that this is even a consideration should just tell you how important the island actually is. The U.S. won't let it simply fall to China in any situation.
Yeah, I just can't even be bothered to repeat myself again. You are on multiple levels of wrong, to think as if Taiwan is in the fucking center of the pacific ocean. You can literally swim from mainland China to Taiwan. There is no military reliance on Taiwan producing Raytheon missiles, as there are plenty other capable supply chains already. The pants on head retardedness of those pundit opinions is literally propaganda by warmongers that love to see the world burn.
