US tracking suspected Chinese surveillance balloon - Feds afraid of popping Xi's big red balloon

"The US has been monitoring a suspected Chinese surveillance balloon that has been spotted in the skies over the northern US this week.

Pentagon officials said in a briefing they are "confident that this high-altitude surveillance balloon" belongs to China.
US military chiefs have for now decided against blowing the alleged spy craft out of the sky, citing safety concerns.
US President Joe Biden has been briefed on the situation, said the Pentagon.
The balloon was over the western state of Montana on Wednesday, according to defence officials.
They added that US military leaders, including Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin and General Mark Milley, the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, met on Wednesday to assess the threat. Mr Austin was travelling to the Philippines at the time.

The military commanders advised against taking "kinetic action" against the balloon because of the danger of debris falling to the ground.
A senior defence official speaking on condition of anonymity said there was no "significantly enhanced threat" of US intelligence being compromised because US officials "know exactly where this balloon is and exactly where it's passing over".
He added that there was no threat to civilian aviation either because the balloon is "significantly" above the altitude used by commercial airlines.
The senior defence official said the US has raised the matter with Chinese officials in their embassy in Washington DC and in Beijing.
The object flew over Alaska's Aleutian Islands and through Canada before appearing over the city of Billings, Montana, on Wednesday, officials say.

During Thursday's briefing at the Pentagon, officials declined to disclose the aircraft's current location. They also refused to provide more details of the object, including its size.

"There have been reports of pilots seeing this thing even though it's pretty high up in the sky," the unnamed defence official said.
"So you know, it's, it's sizable."
The official added that similar balloons have appeared in the skies over the US in the past few years.
But the current balloon "is appearing to hang out for a longer period of time" and has been "more persistent" than previous spy crafts.
It is unclear why it was seen in that particular region of the US. Billings is around 250 miles (400km) southwest of the Malmstrom Air Force Base, which is one of three US air bases that house the Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile.
Pentagon officials refused to confirm if the base was a surveillance target, but agreed "the current flight path does carry it over a number of sensitive sites".

The alleged spy craft confounded social media users in Montana on Wednesday.
People posted photos of a pale round object in the sky that floated separately from the moon. Others reported seeing US military planes in the area, apparently monitoring the object.
It also led to a two-hour ground stop at Billings Logan International Airport after aviation officials made the decision to close 50 sq miles of air space.
It comes ahead of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken's visit to China.
The top US diplomat will be in Beijing next week to hold talks on a wide range of issues, including security, Taiwan and Covid-19.
He will meet Chinese President Xi Jinping, the Financial Times newspaper reported on Thursday."
 
Spend more on defense then every other country combined. Can't shoot down a fucking balloon. OH SAY CAN YOU SEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

Genuine question: Why did they choose a white balloon to spy instead of blue to match the skies so it isn’t as noticeable?
Color doesn't really matter at longer distances. A darker grey would actually work best for visual camouflage. But as someone else pointed out, its probably white for temperature reasons.
 
The resolution necessary to achieve facial recognition by satellites is physically impossible even at the lowest orbits. Angular resolution of 0.01m at 160km is 0.0064457752 arc seconds, that's the equivalent to being able to resolve (187.5nm) a phage at 3m distance. To achieve that resolution at 500nm light wavelength you'd need an aperture of 19.52m.
I have no idea what those numbers mean and I do not give a shit either.

Here's the fucking CIA talking about it.
Mr. PIKE: Well, the detail of the imagery really isn't the issue, hasn't been the issue in imagery intelligence for many decades. It's certainly going to be good enough to see people, probably not good enough to do facial recognition, although that's certainly a possibility.
Source: https://www.npr.org/2011/05/04/135995089/cia-used-satellites-to-prep-for-bin-laden-raid
Al-Qaeda founder Osama bin Laden was spotted by facial recognition software while he was exercising in his Pakistan compound in September, it emerged yesterday.
And it was facial recognition software that identified bin Laden from satellite pictures as he exercised outside in September.
Source: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/fa...spotted-bin-laden/ZYFT7TAT43EZ4DQ6LDKV2LUUJU/
US officials revealed that authorities had used facial recognition software to identify Bin Laden from satellite pictures as he exercised in his compound in September last year.
Source: https://tribune.com.pk/story/161636/us-used-facial-recognition-technology-to-identify-bin-laden

I don't know what more there is to say...
 
I want to be charitable and assume the US military isn't shooting it down because they're busy trying to figure out a way to capture it intact.

Its a round weather balloon, those things can't be powered and drift on the natural currents in the upper atmosphere.
So why the fuck is our government shitting bricks about something that probably just wandered into our airspace on its own?
They are probably approaching it with caution because this has been a known and worryingly viable vector of biological attack since 1945. And given the whole WuFlu thing would anyone put it past Xi to inject WuFlu 2.0 somewhere?

China has also been going all in in probing Taiwan this week. Trying substantial runs against the Taiwanese defense line. So something is going on.
 
From Forbes.

Busting That Chinese Spy Balloon Is Harder Than You Think

It may be too high to shoot down. Military aircraft fly at 65,000 feet; the balloon may be at 80,000 or as high as 120,000 feet.
Such balloons typically fly at 80,000 feet or more – NASA’s version cruises at 120,000 feet.. The U.S. Air Force’s F-15 Eagle and F-22 Raptor both have a stated operating altitude of around 65,000 feet. While they might be able to get close enough to fire a missile, the balloon may be too high for them to shoot.

It's filled with helium and could not explode like the hydrogen-filled Hindenburg.
When people think of military balloons they probably think of the WW1 German Zeppelin raids, and the balloon-busting biplane pilots who brought them crashing down in flames. The giant German airships were filled with highly flammable hydrogen gas, and could be ignited with a few bursts of incendiary bullets, creating an the same effect as the Hindenburg Disaster. However, in this case the balloon is filled with non-flammable helium rather than hydrogen.

It's kind of unpoppable.
The balloon envelope is made of plastic material no thicker than sandwich wrap, and the pressure difference between the inside and outside is small. Attempting to let the air out by punching a few holes is like expecting to ventilate an entire warehouse with fresh air by opening one small window.

Fighter jets have tried and failed to down such balloons before. A balloon took over 1,000 rounds of 20mm cannon fire and just kept drifting ...
We know that large balloons are hard to shoot down from previous experience. In 1998 a rogue Canadian weather balloon drifted towards Russian airspace. Fighter jets from Canada, Norway and Sweden attempted to bring it down without success. Two Canadian air force CF-18 fighters hit the balloon with more than 1,000 rounds of 20mm cannon fire off the coast of Newfoundland, riddling it with holes. This was not enough to let a significant amount of gas out, and the balloon continued drifting.

A missile fired at a balloon would pass through it and possibly endanger civilians.
A volley of 2.75” rockets was equally ineffective, as the high-explosive rockets simply flew though the balloon without detonating. This may be the Air Force’s real concern with intercepting the Chinese balloon: any missile fired at it may be a much greater hazard to civilians below than the balloon itself, which is likely to descend slowly if at all.

It's probably not helplessly drifting -- it's likely solar-powered and steerable.
New control algorithms and an understanding of stratospheric winds means they are steerable and can go anywhere at will, with solar panels providing indefinite flight duration.

The outcome I'm rooting for personally?
[A] failed attempt to bring it down would be a public relations disaster.
 
From Forbes.

Busting That Chinese Spy Balloon Is Harder Than You Think

It may be too high to shoot down. Military aircraft fly at 65,000 feet; the balloon may be at 80,000 or as high as 120,000 feet.
Such balloons typically fly at 80,000 feet or more – NASA’s version cruises at 120,000 feet.. The U.S. Air Force’s F-15 Eagle and F-22 Raptor both have a stated operating altitude of around 65,000 feet. While they might be able to get close enough to fire a missile, the balloon may be too high for them to shoot.

It's filled with helium and could not explode like the hydrogen-filled Hindenburg.
When people think of military balloons they probably think of the WW1 German Zeppelin raids, and the balloon-busting biplane pilots who brought them crashing down in flames. The giant German airships were filled with highly flammable hydrogen gas, and could be ignited with a few bursts of incendiary bullets, creating an the same effect as the Hindenburg Disaster. However, in this case the balloon is filled with non-flammable helium rather than hydrogen.

It's kind of unpoppable.
The balloon envelope is made of plastic material no thicker than sandwich wrap, and the pressure difference between the inside and outside is small. Attempting to let the air out by punching a few holes is like expecting to ventilate an entire warehouse with fresh air by opening one small window.

Fighter jets have tried and failed to down such balloons before. A balloon took over 1,000 rounds of 20mm cannon fire and just kept drifting ...
We know that large balloons are hard to shoot down from previous experience. In 1998 a rogue Canadian weather balloon drifted towards Russian airspace. Fighter jets from Canada, Norway and Sweden attempted to bring it down without success. Two Canadian air force CF-18 fighters hit the balloon with more than 1,000 rounds of 20mm cannon fire off the coast of Newfoundland, riddling it with holes. This was not enough to let a significant amount of gas out, and the balloon continued drifting.

A missile fired at a balloon would pass through it and possibly endanger civilians.
A volley of 2.75” rockets was equally ineffective, as the high-explosive rockets simply flew though the balloon without detonating. This may be the Air Force’s real concern with intercepting the Chinese balloon: any missile fired at it may be a much greater hazard to civilians below than the balloon itself, which is likely to descend slowly if at all.

It's probably not helplessly drifting -- it's likely solar-powered and steerable.
New control algorithms and an understanding of stratospheric winds means they are steerable and can go anywhere at will, with solar panels providing indefinite flight duration.

The outcome I'm rooting for personally?
[A] failed attempt to bring it down would be a public relations disaster.
Back when the airforce was toying with fighter-launched ASAT missiles, I'm pretty sure I remember reading about F-15s going ballistic on burner to like 100k to fire it. Or maybe it was just a plan, and they never tried it. Its been a long time since I read it, and I don't even remember where, so grain of salt.
 
Trump found out:


D39F79E7-E6C3-4B7A-A7E4-3F119EA70945.jpeg
 
From Forbes.

Busting That Chinese Spy Balloon Is Harder Than You Think

It may be too high to shoot down. Military aircraft fly at 65,000 feet; the balloon may be at 80,000 or as high as 120,000 feet.
Such balloons typically fly at 80,000 feet or more – NASA’s version cruises at 120,000 feet.. The U.S. Air Force’s F-15 Eagle and F-22 Raptor both have a stated operating altitude of around 65,000 feet. While they might be able to get close enough to fire a missile, the balloon may be too high for them to shoot.

It's filled with helium and could not explode like the hydrogen-filled Hindenburg.
When people think of military balloons they probably think of the WW1 German Zeppelin raids, and the balloon-busting biplane pilots who brought them crashing down in flames. The giant German airships were filled with highly flammable hydrogen gas, and could be ignited with a few bursts of incendiary bullets, creating an the same effect as the Hindenburg Disaster. However, in this case the balloon is filled with non-flammable helium rather than hydrogen.

It's kind of unpoppable.
The balloon envelope is made of plastic material no thicker than sandwich wrap, and the pressure difference between the inside and outside is small. Attempting to let the air out by punching a few holes is like expecting to ventilate an entire warehouse with fresh air by opening one small window.

Fighter jets have tried and failed to down such balloons before. A balloon took over 1,000 rounds of 20mm cannon fire and just kept drifting ...
We know that large balloons are hard to shoot down from previous experience. In 1998 a rogue Canadian weather balloon drifted towards Russian airspace. Fighter jets from Canada, Norway and Sweden attempted to bring it down without success. Two Canadian air force CF-18 fighters hit the balloon with more than 1,000 rounds of 20mm cannon fire off the coast of Newfoundland, riddling it with holes. This was not enough to let a significant amount of gas out, and the balloon continued drifting.

A missile fired at a balloon would pass through it and possibly endanger civilians.
A volley of 2.75” rockets was equally ineffective, as the high-explosive rockets simply flew though the balloon without detonating. This may be the Air Force’s real concern with intercepting the Chinese balloon: any missile fired at it may be a much greater hazard to civilians below than the balloon itself, which is likely to descend slowly if at all.

It's probably not helplessly drifting -- it's likely solar-powered and steerable.
New control algorithms and an understanding of stratospheric winds means they are steerable and can go anywhere at will, with solar panels providing indefinite flight duration.

The outcome I'm rooting for personally?
[A] failed attempt to bring it down would be a public relations disaster.
What's stopping them from just targeting the surveillance apparatus dangling from the bottom?
 
From Forbes.

Busting That Chinese Spy Balloon Is Harder Than You Think

It may be too high to shoot down. Military aircraft fly at 65,000 feet; the balloon may be at 80,000 or as high as 120,000 feet.
Such balloons typically fly at 80,000 feet or more – NASA’s version cruises at 120,000 feet.. The U.S. Air Force’s F-15 Eagle and F-22 Raptor both have a stated operating altitude of around 65,000 feet. While they might be able to get close enough to fire a missile, the balloon may be too high for them to shoot.

It's filled with helium and could not explode like the hydrogen-filled Hindenburg.
When people think of military balloons they probably think of the WW1 German Zeppelin raids, and the balloon-busting biplane pilots who brought them crashing down in flames. The giant German airships were filled with highly flammable hydrogen gas, and could be ignited with a few bursts of incendiary bullets, creating an the same effect as the Hindenburg Disaster. However, in this case the balloon is filled with non-flammable helium rather than hydrogen.

It's kind of unpoppable.
The balloon envelope is made of plastic material no thicker than sandwich wrap, and the pressure difference between the inside and outside is small. Attempting to let the air out by punching a few holes is like expecting to ventilate an entire warehouse with fresh air by opening one small window.

Fighter jets have tried and failed to down such balloons before. A balloon took over 1,000 rounds of 20mm cannon fire and just kept drifting ...
We know that large balloons are hard to shoot down from previous experience. In 1998 a rogue Canadian weather balloon drifted towards Russian airspace. Fighter jets from Canada, Norway and Sweden attempted to bring it down without success. Two Canadian air force CF-18 fighters hit the balloon with more than 1,000 rounds of 20mm cannon fire off the coast of Newfoundland, riddling it with holes. This was not enough to let a significant amount of gas out, and the balloon continued drifting.

A missile fired at a balloon would pass through it and possibly endanger civilians.
A volley of 2.75” rockets was equally ineffective, as the high-explosive rockets simply flew though the balloon without detonating. This may be the Air Force’s real concern with intercepting the Chinese balloon: any missile fired at it may be a much greater hazard to civilians below than the balloon itself, which is likely to descend slowly if at all.

It's probably not helplessly drifting -- it's likely solar-powered and steerable.
New control algorithms and an understanding of stratospheric winds means they are steerable and can go anywhere at will, with solar panels providing indefinite flight duration.
So if the apocalypse happens or whatever, I should probably have an unpoppable balloon house. Neat.
 
"The balloon is maneuverable... and has changed its course. This is a surveillance balloon," the Pentagon spokesman later added.
I can't stop laughing at this quote.

cat yell Sexoooooo copy.jpg
"The balloon is maneuverable... and has changed its course. It is a surveillance balloon," he repeatedly yelled from his soapbox on the corner of 114th and Lennox.
 
I wonder... Maybe "shooting it down" or somehow otherwise capturing/neutralizing it isn't something we're willing to do, because it would demonstrate capabilities we have that would be better kept secret until shooting starts or otherwise more urgently wielded. Maybe the thinking is China doesn't need to know how we could do that, just yet. I know, 🌈 and all, but its not without precedent. But as I was writing this, I just heard something take off from PIA in central Illinois like a bat outta hell that isn't showing up on adsb. Air guard rotorheads and trashhaulers are what we usually get, and a C130 has been buzzing around for a while like they tend to do, this sounded like a fighter.
 
They are probably approaching it with caution because this has been a known and worryingly viable vector of biological attack since 1945. And given the whole WuFlu thing would anyone put it past Xi to inject WuFlu 2.0 somewhere?

China has also been going all in in probing Taiwan this week. Trying substantial runs against the Taiwanese defense line. So something is going on.
I don't get that computation.

If it's a bio-weapon and US doesn't blow it up, China will trigger it as planned
If it's a bio-weapon and US does blow it up, well China was going to trigger it anyway, probably over a major population centre, and there's at least a chance that blowing it up will ruin the effectiveness
If it's not a bio-weapon and the US doesn't blow it up, US looks like limp dick faggots
If it's not a bio-weapon and the US does blow it up, the US salvages some modicum of respect.


I don't see a down side to blowing it up, even if it is a weapon because if it a weapon, China wouldn't be floating the thing around randomly so might as well fuck with their schedukle
 
Here’s how you deal with this. You call China and ask them if the balloon belongs to them.
  • If they say yes, tell them you’ll bring it down and return it to them… after you disassemble it and find out what the hell it was doing in American airspace. When they complain, act like you’re doing them a favor by returning their lost property to them.
  • If they say no, bring it down and find out what the hell it was doing in American airspace. If/when they complain, remind them they denied any knowledge of said balloon.
The longer that balloon floats above us, the harder it gets for the elites to deny they’re selling our secrets for their own personal gain.
 
Back when the airforce was toying with fighter-launched ASAT missiles, I'm pretty sure I remember reading about F-15s going ballistic on burner to like 100k to fire it. Or maybe it was just a plan, and they never tried it. Its been a long time since I read it, and I don't even remember where, so grain of salt.
Yes, aircraft can do zoom climbs that are pretty much ballistic. This is how the soviets shot down the american spy balloons and how they tried to shoot down the U-2. The problem is hitting the thing in a climb like that - the controllability of an aircraft in really thin atmosphere is marginal. So a missile will need to be used instead of guns. There is also the problem of pressurization, any pilot on such a flight will have to wear something close to a space suit.
 
The reports say it went over the Aleutian Islands before entering Canada and the United States. The Aleutian islands have early warning radars for nuclear weapon launches and aircraft. I bet the Chinese sent this over to do ELINT gathering of those radar systems. The Ground Based Interceptor program is also in Alaska, could have been to gather intel on that as well.

I think it would be retarded for China to send a balloon into the US, especially after a high level meeting was scheduled with the Secretary of State. China's method of showing retaliation to US foreign policy has been harassing Taiwan with large aircraft formations, this seems way to much of an escalation. Plus, if such an incursion was to take place, it would likely happen during or after the meeting with the secretary of state, not before, again, based on how China has acted before.

I bet the intel balloon went off course cause its a fucking balloon, and it entered the US at a poor moment. Also, the US could shoot it down at anytime. They wouldn't target the balloon like another user said, it would go straight through it. But they could just target the instruments bay, that's solid enough to hit with something.

They are probably buying their time so intelligence officials behind the scenes can communicate with their Chinese counterparts over what the fuck is going on, attempting to deescalate instead of having a knee jerk reaction to shoot it down.

I don't think the Chinese could even get much intel from flying it over US nuclear silos. The silos don't have radars or much in the way of emissions unless one of the remote launch planes if flying overhead. And anything visual they could get with satellites which they already have.

I.E. Someone in China fucked up, and both sides are tying to figure out what the fuck happened to avoid unnecessary escalation.

Edit: For your reading pleasure
 
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