Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

Kharkiv is a huge city and they failed to take it in first phase of war. Not a chance they will enter it.
They don't actually need to enter it or even commit that many troops, i.e. Bakhmut 2.0; just make it unusable & uninhabitable for the Ukrainians; although even a small breakthrough certainly would offer the opportunity for an end-run around that part of the Ukrainian lines.

And speaking of Russian cannon-fodder:
 
those jammer things exist yes, but there is very little info on how well they work, especially against different kinds of drones flying at different heights and equipped with different signal transmission hardware. jamming little billys 50 dollar quadcopter from the local electronics store that is flying 10 meters above your house is not comparable to jamming military grade drones that are purpose built for stealthy recon flights or bombing runs.

i'm sure the militaries of the world have been doing a lot of r+d and testing on this subject, but i htink they don't usually make their results public.
The ECM developed for Afghan and Iraq will kill any drones command link depending on the distance.

I've seen literal fist fights break out between drone operators and vehicle crews that insisted on leaving their ECM switched on constantly. ECM even if it's not tuned to the specific frequency will kill drone guidance by sheer transmit power.
 
That was an issue going back as far as the ISIS crisis. There were a lot of Counter IED jamming devices and drone busting guns in Syria and Iraq that cut off drones from their controls that were circumvented by just putting the drone on a pre programed path.
No way those chinese hobby drones could work after that given that all targeting was done with the gimbal cam since the payload was just a grenade with a 3D printed tail glued to it.

And you can also jam GPS.
Unless and until they make drones faster, more maneuverable, better armored, better armed, and stealthy, muh autonomous drone swarms will make good target practice and good cannon fodder to draw fire away from more capable aircraft and little else
I don't need any of that shit if I can put thousands of those in the sky for the price of the cheapest fighter out there. Good luck shooting at a thousand drones when all it takes is one to blow your SPAAG (and your legs) out.

Airburst SAMs would be more effective but again a system like this with this level of integration could easily make the swarm break away to minimize damage leaving most of the swarm ready to engage.
And it depends. They meow a bit, e.g. a large part of them did not get local citizenship (mainly in Latvia
Why not? are they there illegally? how many were living in the area before the fall of the wall?
They don't actually need to enter it or even commit that many troops, i.e. Bakhmut 2.0; just make it unusable & uninhabitable for the Ukrainians; although even a small breakthrough certainly would offer the opportunity for an end-run around that part of the Ukrainian lines.

And speaking of Russian cannon-fodder:
Putin is burying an entire generation, on a country with already fucked demographics.
 
Airburst SAMs would be more effective but again a system like this with this level of integration could easily make the swarm break away to minimize damage leaving most of the swarm ready to engage.
Why use SAM's when you could saturate the area with dumbfire rockets? Its not like there's anything new there since stuff like that was talked about during WW2. A mix of VT and MT fuses would be sufficient to ensure a blanket barrage. You don't even need anything fancy for fuel since WW2 rockets all used bitch-basic gunpowder for their propellant.
 
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Why not? are they there illegally? how many were living in the area before the fall of the wall?
USSR citizenship was technically divided into different SSR citizenships, and the soviet state routinely moved people from one SSR to live and work in another SSR. that's how a lot of russian SFSR citizens ended up living in places like estonian SSR, latvian SSR, lithuanian SSR, etc.
after the soviet breakup, the SSRs were replaced by sovereign states and former SSR citizenship became citizenship in these new states. for example, citizens of latvian SSR became citizens of the new latvian nation state, while citizens of russian SFSR became citizens of the new russian federation - but they didn't magically teleport back to russia just because the USSR dissolved, they stayed in the countries they had moved into years ago. that's why all these russians are in these non russian countries.
 
USSR citizenship was technically divided into different SSR citizenships, and the soviet state routinely moved people from one SSR to live and work in another SSR. that's how a lot of russian SFSR citizens ended up living in places like estonian SSR, latvian SSR, lithuanian SSR, etc.
after the soviet breakup, the SSRs were replaced by sovereign states and former SSR citizenship became citizenship in these new states. citizens of latvian SSR became citizens of the new latvian nation state, while citizens of russian SFSR became citizens of the new russian federation - but they didn't magically teleport back to russia just because the USSR dissolved, they stayed in the countries they had moved into years ago. that's why all these russians are in these non russian countries.
They need to go back. Latvia should build a wall and have Russia pay for it.
 
these things are over 40 years old and somehow they still manage to hit moving targets in the air from several kilometers away with autocannon fire
actually crazy tbh
The Gepard is a vehicle that doesn't make a lot of sense. It has two seperate radars one for search one for targeting (it'll follow the rounds fires as well as the target). It was horrendously expensive and extremely difficult to maintain. Compared to something like a ZSU-23-4 which just has a simple range only radar, that lets the gunner line up the target.

Essentially it didn't make sense to spend that much money on a short range cannon based system. Even SAM systems tend to share a search radar for the entire battery. Not give each individual launcher multiple radars.

When the Germans got rid of them, a lot of nations picked them up cheap only to discover that they couldn't afford to keep them running.

Anyway it'll be perfect for what the Ukrainians are using it for, protecting against drones. When they need to perform maintenance on it, they'll just load it onto a rail car and ship it back to Germany.

It's Ironic that the Ukrainians will prove the German theory of Armored vehicle deployment, that they tried to use in WWII. Don't fuck around with forward repair, simply drag vehicles to a railhead and send them back to the factory for repair.

Those Leopard I's that are coming, they're going to murder the Russians. That tank is the personification of lessons learned on the Eastern front in WWII. Ignore all the hype about M1A1's, that tank with upgraded optics is going to rape the Russians.
 

I find his videos good and military minded, even if the still and titles can be clickbait, but it is YouTube. Essentially UA pressed very, very hard, but RF is taking disportionate casualties.

They need to go back. Latvia should build a wall and have Russia pay for it.
Russian expats tend to be like the worst expats, grotesque ultra-nats somehow not back in Russia fighting for their patria, but still dangerously loyal to the Putin vertical. They're basically a fifth column to a very great extend.
 
That is a rather bold claim. What about the tank makes it so good then?
The design allowed for constant upgrades to gunner and commanders sights. As a comparison the British Challenger 2 doesn't and to upgrade it they have to replace the turret.

The Armor will keep out Auto Cannon fire and short range AT weapons, however it doesn't try to defeat main gun rounds and ATGW, and so is 15 tonnes lighter than a M1A1 (whose armor can't defeat them either).

It's extremely fast, has excellent crew ergonomics, and the 105 will kill a T-72 at 2500 meters. Also the 105 thanks to the dead end that was the MGS can fire a wide range of infantry and bunker busting ammo that doesn't exist for the 120. (hint for the US the MGS would have been fine if it had an oscillating turret),

With the Leopard I, the Ukrainians are going to get a fast, well armed vehicle, with excellent night vision, a stabilised gun and top of the range fire control computer. They're also going to get it by the 100, not in batches of less than a dozen like with the Leopard II or M2.

Meanwhile Russian Tankers can complete their basics course without ever firing a main gun round and are shit scared of the Auto Loader trying to rip their arms of (which is a myth), and the Ammunition storage causing a catastrophic explosion from even a slight penetration (that's not a myth, sitting on top of open bag charges is not good).
 
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Partially true, partially not. Changing borders before speculated dissolution of RF will be risky, but still not so impossible like redrawning them after dissolution.

Also I'm not so sure that dissoluting RF will be any good for world. Deputinization, demilitarization, decriminalization and pushing the whole thing on new economic path should be more applicable resolution. Maybye seccession of some regions that will be too hard to find any purpose can be a solution for starting future reforms, but it will also give risk that newly created states will be horrorshow (if we are dreaming lets imagine a horror in independent Chechen ruled state from Dagestan to Ingushetia. Civil war in this thing will state probably in first ten seconds of soverginity.
Changing administrative borders is easier than changing borders between independent states.
Of course, I'd harmonize "state rights" across different types of regions (oblast/kraj/republic) first, they should be equal. Then, current regional elites will use wide autonomy for fortifying their own positions, so the process of decentralization should be gradual and supervised (question is, by whom?) And only after building local democratic institutions, secession question should be raised on a referendum (maybe, by that point secession will become unnecessary and federation will continue to exist in its current borders).

The most important and the hardest task will be to dismantle current state security apparatus and rebuild it in less ugly form. The succession chain from VChK/NKVD/KGB to FSB should be broken. I'd do that by declaring aforementioned organizations criminal, banning their members from taking positions in government and, in general, presuming them guilty until proven innocent (i.e. holding them to the same standard they held us for 100 years). Then, declassify their archives, tear down Dzerzhinsky's busts and portraits and kick whatever successor organization from Lubyanka building. It's an :optimistic: scenario, but not dealing with our glowies carries serious risks of autocratic rebound.

It's so much wasted potential too. Instead of pissing away what few kids they have in Ukrainian trenches they should be turning the largest unexploited wilderness in the world into something viable. Russia already has so much land to give itself a prosperous future and instead we get drunken naval gazing about a former Empire and past glories. It would be sad if it wasn't so pathetic.
To be fair, unexploited wilderness is unexploited for a good reason. People who tried to exploit it (communists) did so with forced labor, killing hundreds of thousands in the process, and built cities and infrastructure that's nothing but a money drain under market economy conditions. I live 200-300km south from permafrost zone and having 6 months of below zero temps sucks. Things only get worse if you go north.
Doesn't make this war any less retarded though.
 
The most important and the hardest task will be to dismantle current state security apparatus and rebuild it in less ugly form. The succession chain from VChK/NKVD/KGB to FSB should be broken. I'd do that by declaring aforementioned organizations criminal, banning their members from taking positions in government and, in general, presuming them guilty until proven innocent (i.e. holding them to the same standard they held us for 100 years). Then, declassify their archives, tear down Dzerzhinsky's busts and portraits and kick whatever successor organization from Lubyanka building. It's an :optimistic: scenario, but not dealing with our glowies carries serious risks of autocratic rebound.
but those chekists are the only thing that hold the state together, no? without their glowniggery nothing would prevent a descent into warlordism that would tear the country apart.
 
People also forget that when it comes to the grand scheme of things, the T72 is a light tank. Russian military planners understood their logistics train was dog shit beyond railroads, so they needed a smaller platform that could move quicker and had long range. The Leapord and the Abrams by comparison would be considered Medium Tanks. They have a larger crew, and way more firing capacity then the T72. The larger frame also means the Ammo can be kept segregated from the crew instead of having the crew literally sitting on top of it.

The idea a T72 formation can go toe to toe with an Abrams or Leapord formation is pure cope. In every engagement where the two platforms have met its been a one sided slaughter in favor of the NATO tanks. The only fig leaf the Russians have is the claim that it was a shitty Arab army crewing them, and not glorious Russian soldiers. But considering those same soldiers performance in Ukraine to date, I question that cope.
 
but those chekists are the only thing that hold the state together, no? without their glowniggery nothing would prevent a descent into warlordism that would tear the country apart.
If Germany, Japan, Italy and Ukraine as well as the Warsaw Pact nations the Soviets enslaved for decades could dismantle their secret police and move forward after their respective wars, so can Russia.
 
If Germany, Japan, Italy and Ukraine as well as the Warsaw Pact nations the Soviets enslaved for decades could dismantle their secret police and move forward after their respective wars, so can Russia.
germany, japan, italy were completely destroyed and ruined by foreign enemies. this is not something that can or will or should happen to russia.

and the other eastern block commie states were only being kept alive by the constant soviet threat the first place - everybody knew that if someone tried to overthrow the commies, soviet tanks would roll in and reinstate them by force. once that threat disappeared, the nations were free to reassert themselves and overthrow the relatively weak local commie puppet regimes.
this approach does not apply to russia because russia is not under the thumb of a foreign power like these other nations were, and russian state/government is far more powerful and much more entrenched than those other commie puppets ever were.
 
but those chekists are the only thing that hold the state together, no? without their glowniggery nothing would prevent a descent into warlordism that would tear the country apart.
They build their influence networks on top of existing structures, there's still functional bureaucratic machine underneath and it will continue to function without glowies. It will be rough transition, yes, but in the grand scheme of things the current state security apparatus does more harm than good.
 
germany, japan, italy were completely destroyed and ruined by foreign enemies. this is not something that can or will or should happen to russia.
True, but that makes Russia look even worse. Why can't you get your own house in order when you have no credible foreign threat?
and the other eastern block commie states were only being kept alive by the constant soviet threat the first place - everybody knew that if someone tried to overthrow the commies, soviet tanks would roll in and reinstate them by force. once that threat disappeared, the nations were free to reassert themselves and overthrow the relatively weak local commie puppet regimes.
No argument there, they brutally suppressed the Germans in 1953, the Hungarians in 1956 and the Czechs in 1968.
this approach does not apply to russia because russia is not under the thumb of a foreign power like these other nations were, and russian state/government is far more powerful and much more entrenched than those other commie puppets ever were.
Unfortunately I suspect a lot of Russians just accept it as part of life despite the fact their level of corruption is worse than most sub-Saharan African countries. And it shows in how dirty and run-down the country is despite a nominal GDP per capita above the global average.

China has totally outclassed them when it comes to fighting corruption and it shows.
 
They don't actually need to enter it or even commit that many troops, i.e. Bakhmut 2.0; just make it unusable & uninhabitable for the Ukrainians; although even a small breakthrough certainly would offer the opportunity for an end-run around that part of the Ukrainian lines.

And speaking of Russian cannon-fodder:
If you are implying those are Russian soldiers, seems you fell for a Dvach prank on Труха, who has since deleted the post claiming those are dead Russian soldiers, as those are dead Ukrainians KIA from Bakhmut/Artemovsk which Wagner is preparing to repatriate.

This is the source of the video; it's on Prigozhin's TG:


The fighters of the Wagner PMC continue to send the dead soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to their homeland.​
Hundreds of bodies, which occupy a huge space, are put in coffins, which will then be delivered to the Ukrainian side.​

It's not the first time Wagner has done this either:

PMC "Wagner" will send corpses of the AFU from Soledar on 20 trucks to Ukraine

 
The Armor will keep out Auto Cannon fire and short range AT weapons, however it doesn't try to defeat main gun rounds and ATGW, and so is 15 tonnes lighter than a M1A1 (whose armor can't defeat them either).
And when the Russians haul a WW2 85mm or 100mm out of storage the Leopard will be at risk of getting cored by that. Even if you can't armor against what the enemy has on the front lines, you can armor against what he was in reserve, and considering what the Russians are hauling out it appears to have been a smart move and precisely why the Leopard's contemporary of the M60 had relatively heavy armor. Couldn't stop a T-64's 125mm but it could laugh at a T-55's 100mm, which is something the Leopard 1 will struggle with, even the upgraded Leopard 1A5 which entered service in 1987, two years after the M1A1.

Goddamn Clinton dumping all our M60's into the ocean... we could be sending the M60A3 TTS instead but noooo, gotta build some artificial reefs.

Also the MGS doesn't even have a turret. The gun is just built right on top of the autoloader. An oscillating design would just make the weight issues even worse while not alleviating the recoil ones in any significant manner.
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Its also something the USA had a lot of problems with while historically we did a lot of good things with that sort of tilting gun setup as seen with the T92 light tank. But ultimately shoving the M68 on a wheeled platform of any size is just going to ask for problems. The AMX-10 RC has had a lot of problems with that mid-pressure 105mm, after all, never mind a modified form of the M68A1 complete with the ability to fire super-pressure rounds like M900.
 
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