Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[MG-34]

2/ rumors of AFU forces moving to the direction of Transnistria;
3/ rumors that Modlovan PM told about ruzzkie plan to capture airport in Chisinau (HOW I ask - they will send ariplanes over Romania or over Ukraine?);.

The Russian military may be trying to vacate back to Russia just to redeploy elsewhere. They are essentially stranded at the moment and it'sclear Russia needs warm bodies to feed into the grinder. It would be interesting if the Ukies made a go for destroying the Russian garrison to prevent them from being a problem elsewhere as well as curry favor with Moldova but I doubt the world community would condone it unfortunately.

 

[Elämällä on väliä]

The Russian military may be trying to vacate back to Russia just to redeploy elsewhere.

They have less than 1600 personel in Transnistria, part of them are non-combat, part of them are locals with no wish to go outside of Transnistria. And Moscow have no option to force them into that.

Any operation to evacuate them is just plain stupid. No chance to make a profit from that - it will be impossible to take all of them in quick operation and it is impossible to have a free airbrige to them for that purpose. They probably will waste more personel in action than will receive from that place.

I still think this is a political action to neutralize pro-ruzzki parties in Moldova and make some noise in Tirasopol. I don't belive anyone will start military action in that part, BUT from Kiev perspective fall of Transnistira ASAP have some pros. Not big enough to send troops to Moldova in my opinion.

I still think if anything will take place, it will be made by moldovian forces - maybye with volunteers from Romania.

tl;dr: gayops from both sides.

 

[Blatant hypocrite]

"Declining regional power"? He does realize we have the largest (USN) and second largest (USMC) carrier navies in the world, right? Meanwhile Russia has all of one carrier that can't even carry out combat operations and needs a support fleet of tugs in case it breaks down while at sea. This is like a Frenchman in the 1800's saying that after the British Empire got BTFO'd in a brush war in Africa by some angry tribesmen that the sun was going to start setting on it any minute now.

Here's a thought experiment: If the US deployed all their Europe-based forces, without drawing from anywhere else, how much would it affect the conflict?

On one hand, it's the USA. On the other hand, their presence in Europe is pretty small compared to other theatres, the USS George H W Bush only has F-18s and APS-2 is a fairly small one. Would it merely tilt the scales a bit, or would Russia get utterly fucked?

 

[Ghostse]

The Russian military may be trying to vacate back to Russia just to redeploy elsewhere. They are essentially stranded at the moment and it'sclear Russia needs warm bodies to feed into the grinder. It would be interesting if the Ukies made a go for destroying the Russian garrison to prevent them from being a problem elsewhere as well as curry favor with Moldova but I doubt the world community would condone it unfortunately.

Russian reports of uniformed Ukrainian personnel, "Little blue men" are being dismissed despite videos appearing. Zelenski was on state radio declaring no Ukrainin armed forces were in Transnistria, but that Transnistria was historically an integral part of Ukraine.
this is a shit post about Russia in Crimea

 

[Fanatical Pragmatist]

"Declining regional power"? He does realize we have the largest (USN) and second largest (USMC) carrier navies in the world, right? Meanwhile Russia has all of one carrier that can't even carry out combat operations and needs a support fleet of tugs in case it breaks down while at sea. This is like a Frenchman in the 1800's saying that after the British Empire got BTFO'd in a brush war in Africa by some angry tribesmen that the sun was going to start setting on it any minute now.

Of course, the really funny part is that the USSR was also forced to leave Afghanistan, and much sooner, and unlike the USA they shared a land border.

Vatniks: "Haha the US held Afghanistan for 20 years then left. This is proof that Russia being unable to take over Ukraine is actually a win!"

 

[mindlessobserver]

It would be the height of Irony that Russian chest thumping over Moldova and Transnistria results in a Joint Ukraine/Moldovan "military exercise" on the East Bank of the Nister River.

That would be one expensive virtue signal. Especially since Russia is in absolutely no position right now to do anything if Ukraine and Moldova go in.

 

[Keystone]

Personally, I think he may have just lost the democrats the presidency with this.

>Saying this after the 2020 "election"

Adorable.

 

[Ghostse]

Here's a thought experiment: If the US deployed all their Europe-based forces, without drawing from anywhere else, how much would it affect the conflict?

On one hand, it's the USA. On the other hand, their presence in Europe is pretty small compared to other theatres, the USS George H W Bush only has F-18s and APS-2 is a fairly small one. Would it merely tilt the scales a bit, or would Russia get utterly fucked?

You're asking the wrong questions, the thought experiment falls on its face quickly.

That is, if we're assuming Biden's puppeteer gets an itch on his nose and it causes Weekend-at-Biden's to hit the "ALL EURO TROOPS AIRDROP ON THE UKRAINE FRONT NOW" button, even if its a small number of troops now it won't stay small as replacements and additional logistics troops would be quickly activated and deployed.

Combat troops are also a consumable commodity. Even a few thousand troops, even taking light casualties, would be spent in about 6 months, if not sooner. Even if we want to assume that we have 1:1 replacements en route for every euro-deployed soldier, any competent commander is going to stagger deployment. Its not enough strength to bleed Russia in any meaningful manner.

I think the thought experiment you want is
"If tomorrow Biden wanted to end the conflict in Ukraine, could he do it with the US forces currently in region + Ukraine" and the answer is a very solid no.

 

[tulskij_tochnyj]

Interesting that she implies the Mk 19 is better than the AGS. I recall then Mk 19 being awkward to reload and charge while being a unreliable mess, but that may have been the armorers slacking off. The AGS must be a shittier system if the Mk 19 is getting praise. So much for the superior designed and rugged Russian weapons.

AGS-17 is inaccurate at long ranges, AGS-30 is too light and therefore unstable. 30mm grenades barely produce any shrapnel and don't have airburst/DP rounds (i.e. the useful ones). Also, I'm not sure Ukrainians have enough grenades for AGS after a year of war. Most of complaints I read about AGS pertain to its weight (either too heavy or too light and kicks like a horse), shitty sights, accuracy and ammo consumption rates.

 

[Snekposter]

The Russian military may be trying to vacate back to Russia just to redeploy elsewhere. They are essentially stranded at the moment and it'sclear Russia needs warm bodies to feed into the grinder. It would be interesting if the Ukies made a go for destroying the Russian garrison to prevent them from being a problem elsewhere as well as curry favor with Moldova but I doubt the world community would condone it unfortunately.

All Moldova needs to do is order them out on near-impossible terms that wind up impossible thanks to Russia being a clusterfuck, and then when they don't meet those terms ask Ukraine to disarm them and escort them out and back to Russia. The chances of the garrison disarming so they can be escorted out by Ukrainians are about 0, so with a bit of PR laundering Moldova and Ukraine look like the good guys.

Here's a thought experiment: If the US deployed all their Europe-based forces, without drawing from anywhere else, how much would it affect the conflict?

On one hand, it's the USA. On the other hand, their presence in Europe is pretty small compared to other theatres, the USS George H W Bush only has F-18s and APS-2 is a fairly small one. Would it merely tilt the scales a bit, or would Russia get utterly fucked?

For starters, the Super Hornet is one of the most advanced planes in existence, entering service in 1999, so its at least as good as anything Russia has, and then you have the Growler variant which trades out the Vulcan for a crapton of ECM for use in the intruder/SEAD role. Plus the Bush is a Nimitz-class, so you've got multiple squadrons of multi-role aircraft, plus helicopters that can be used for everything from SAR to medevac to ASW. Now, this is contingent on the Turks letting it through the straits, but since the Roaches and Russians have never been on good terms that's not impossible.

As to Europe based forces, you've got a bunch of spec ops that have been in the Baltics training those guys on asymmetrical warfare in case Russia did a repeat of 2014 on them, plus we moved most of our guys from Germany to Poland. Add in that there's still probably some pretty hefty support infrastructure (medical and logistics as opposed to munitions) from the Cold War and the overall impact of land forces is surprisingly big, never mind the impact of adding multiple squadrons of Super Hornets to the already tenuous Russian air situation. Won't immediately win the war, not even close, but it would definitely tip the scales in Ukraine's favor.

AGS-17 is inaccurate at long ranges, AGS-30 is too light and therefore unstable. 30mm grenades barely produce any shrapnel and don't have airburst/DP rounds (i.e. the useful ones). Also, I'm not sure Ukrainians have enough grenades for AGS after a year of war.

The Russians have a lot of those problems with too little weight. IIRC they've got a 14.5mm anti-materiel rifle that weighs even less than the M82 the US uses or the PGM the French do and I can't imagine its pleasant to fire since less weight to the gun means more recoil right to your body.

 

[Astro Galactic Megalul]

This is not the slapfight thread. Wanna fool around with freeze peach, make the damn topic, I'm sure it was never discussed here.
We get threadbanned from going to your Russia safety cocoon.
I know it's hard to respect the rules, I know it's genetic, but there is no other way.
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Wagner PMC seems to be sabotaged. Maybe Russian authorities started to fear it?
View attachment 4596977

I say it's just cope and blame-shifting, running out of people is more of a problem, judging by all the stacks of black plastic bags. It amuses me greatly, considering motherfucker was bragging that they're self-sufficient and have "their own" hardware, even though we all know who supplies them. Christ, what a baby.
MoD VS Wagniggers saga is entertaining.

 

[Snekposter]

MoD VS Wagniggers saga is entertaining.

Disunity of forces has always crippled armies. Just look at the Waffen-SS vs. Wehrmacht fights over manpower and equipment and how that hurt Germany, or the fact the IJN and IJA were almost more likely to shoot at each other instead of the enemy.

 

[tulskij_tochnyj]

The Russians have a lot of those problems with too little weight. IIRC they've got a 14.5mm anti-materiel rifle that weighs even less than the M82 the US uses or the PGM the French do and I can't imagine its pleasant to fire since less weight to the gun means more recoil right to your body.

Soldiers were complaining that AGS-17 was too heavy to use offensively, so...with AGS-30, you need to dig tripod legs into dirt/anchor them with sandbags, or forget about accuracy. But it's only 16kg (with tripod) instead of 31!

 

[delerious?]

Disunity of forces has always crippled armies. Just look at the Waffen-SS vs. Wehrmacht fights over manpower and equipment and how that hurt Germany, or the fact the IJN and IJA were almost more likely to shoot at each other instead of the enemy.

Pretty sure some wagner commanders/mobiks made videos threatening an open rebellion if they continued to have low supply from the russian govt. These people have more loyalty to the company then to their country. Maybe prigozhin can cook up some more ammunition

 

[Elämällä on väliä]

I think the thought experiment you want is
"If tomorrow Biden wanted to end the conflict in Ukraine, could he do it with the US forces currently in region + Ukraine" and the answer is a very solid no.

If USA decides to intervene they will probably not go to the frontline. But we still far from direct intervention from NATO.

From around april '22 they are some suggestions about peacekeeping operation by NATO/some countries from NATO in west Ukraine. Aim of this would be repleacing AFU forces west of Dnieper, so they could be used east of Dnieper. Area is far from land combat, ruzzia will think twice before bombing them and Ukraine will receive support in large scale (they will have more units to use on frontline, not to look at Belarus border south from Brest Oblast).

This scenario could be like this, but in bigger scale: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incident_at_Pristina_airport

All Moldova needs to do is order them out on near-impossible terms that wind up impossible thanks to Russia being a clusterfuck, and then when they don't meet those terms ask Ukraine to disarm them and escort them out and back to Russia. The chances of the garrison disarming so they can be escorted out by Ukrainians are about 0, so with a bit of PR laundering Moldova and Ukraine look like the good guys.

Other scenario:

- cut communication between Transnistria and Moscow;
- invite observators from Transnistria to look at surronding forces (it will be easy to have 8:1 ratio: 1,6k ruzzkie garrison in Transnistria; 6k from Moldova, 7k from Ukraine);
- let them count hardware of coalition;
- told them they have two options: 1/ fight; 2/ surrender for citizens of ruzziastan, amnestia for citizens of Moldova.

I think they should choose second option. But I still doubt in any action in next months.

These people have more loyalty to the company then to their country.

And this tells us a lot about thei IQ level. One digit.

 

[DumbDude43]

but I doubt the world community would condone it unfortunately.

you think so? transnistria is for all intents and purposes just a rebellious province of moldova. moldova is widely recognized as a legitimate sovereign state, while transnistria is recognized only by a handful of clown entities like abkhazia and artsakh.
basically if moldova asks ukraine to come in and help the moldovan army take out the vatnik garrison in tiraspol, nobody in the world really has any standing to say or do something about it. russia will screech, but they're not really in a position to do something about it. moldova (including transnistria) is landlocked in between ukraine and romania - romania is nato turf so russia can't go through there, and going through ukraine is what they've been trying and failing to do for a year now.
really the only reason transnistria hasn't been crushed earlier already is because all europe was very much interested in avoiding any kind of war on the continent, especially when russia is involved. but that genie is out of the bottle now, russia is already waging a war on european soil, one that is a hundred times larger and more intense than transnistria could ever be, so there's not much deterrent left.

i guess the question is whether the ukrainian army is interested in committing forces to doing something in the south west. probably not, they got their work cut out for them in the east, no point in wasting any capacity on the small and irrelevant vatnik presence in moldova right now, got bigger fish to fry.

 

[Pocket Dragoon]

Russians still not learning from their mistakes:


from the 12th Separate Rifle Brigade

 

[Fait Accompli]

About transgendernistria, why the fuck are the Russians still occupying the region. Sure, it was a piece of the puzzle before the strategic failure in Ukraine but now it feels very wasteful. I bet they would be much more useful at the front instead of being isolated ( aside from air supply )

Would be fun to see a joint Mol/Ukr invasion of transnistria tho, a bit of spice to the steak

 

[DumbDude43]

About transgendernistria, why the fuck are the Russians still occupying the region. Sure, it was a piece of the puzzle before the strategic failure in Ukraine but now it feels very wasteful. I bet they would be much more useful at the front instead of being isolated ( aside from air supply )

Would be fun to see a joint Mol/Ukr invasion of transnistria tho, a bit of spice to the steak

how are they supposed to leave transnistria? they're surrounded by NATO on the one side and ukraine on the other side. they literally couldn't get out even if they wanted to.

 

[Fait Accompli]

how are they supposed to leave transnistria? they're surrounded by NATO on the one side and ukraine on the other side. they literally couldn't get out even if they wanted to.

Airlifts? Cant they just do what they currently do when bringing in supplies to keep the units going

I bet they could secure a safe passage fairly easy if it meant they they stopped the occupation