- Joined
- Dec 20, 2019
was always a feint, have them right where we want them
Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion
- Thread starter Bohdan Khmelnytsky
- Start date
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>They still haven't taken Bakhmut
Correct, and I'd guess they won't for another week or two at least.
>What the fuck is even the objective now
Keeping the current government from swinging from lamp posts. If you're talking militarily, it's hard to say at this point. They want to advance in the south to bolster their land grab claims but that's ended up becoming an absolute fiasco with the better part of two brigades wasted in an attempt to take a small coal mining town from the Ukrainians, ~60 IFV's and tanks at least destroyed just around there, not including damaged or just plain abandoned then later artillery striked. Right now, it's looking like Russia has flat out hit empty on reserve formations for any kind of break through exploitation barring future draftees, which take time and are just beating their heads against a wall. Artillery stockpiles have also ran out and thus their one potential advantage in being able to just throw more shells downrange is also gone for a while, while Ukrainians are getting stocks from new western production pretty soon.
Note that there's some indication the Russians are trying to do something smart for once and conduct some kind of large scale SEAD operation, judging from their drone use to try and ferret out Ukrainian AA radars and AAM's, so the VVS might come out to play again this year and likely suffer horrific losses again.
Basically the objective at this point is just hold what they've taken and hope the West forgets about all this.
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Clownish
kiwifarms.net
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Internal politics between the Russian Military and Wagner to gain more influence in the Kremlin.
They are constantly shit talking each other on Telegram, and running gayops to make each other look bad to the public.
Smity Werbenjagermanjensen
kiwifarms.net
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- Jul 12, 2018
Assuming the footage of the POWs are actually Wagner, the beauty of this is that even though Wagner mainly used as plausible deniablity army, on paper they're mercenaries, which means that they're not protected by the Geneva Conventions at all, which is even something Russia pointed out when foreign volunteers arrived in Ukraine.
So in the eyes of the international law, torturing a captive Wagner trooper to death is A OK.
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That last line is an absolute corker. Russia accusing Ukraine of exactly what it did in Crimea and Donbas.
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To kill as many ethnic rusians and replace them with churkas and niggers
VSD
kiwifarms.net
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- Feb 3, 2023
Not having the Russian Federation dissolve as a political entity, I imagine. The military is worthless, as it is Russian, and the Russian army has always been riddled with problems. They have neither the tactical competence, nor the veterancy, nor the supplies and material to make any form of offensive happen. They'll simply bleed young boys in the ground they have as the look for any form of escape.
The wise thing to do would be surrender. The problem is, if they do, the Russian Federation is more or less doomed. If they aren't immediately crushed with sanctions and reparations by the UN and NATO, or else dragged out of their houses by the Russian people and shot, there will likely be some form of 'peacekeeping operation' or 'defensive action' by NATO which will see large numbers of troops stationed on the Ukrainian border, with Ukraine likely receiving NATO membership. With this, all of the strategically vital areas of Russia's main territory will be accessible to NATO in under 2-3 weeks using conventional ground assaults. If there should ever be an instance in which Russia is deemed inconvenient or threatening, they could be neutralized using the types of campaigns the US and Western powers have experimented with and have come to like employing; overwhelming force applied to a few critical areas likes strategically placed cites and logistical points, rendering the opposition scattered, helpless, and vulnerable (in theory) to mop up operations.
Russia's only viable options would be to roll over and accept humiliation and the effective loss of statehood, or go MAD, neither of which they want to accept.
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- Feb 18, 2019
This does look like a very happy merchant
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- Jul 20, 2019
Someone already posted this earlier today, still waiting for the confirmation
It would be a defeat for Putin's regime and his vatnik followers, everyone else would rejoice. For Russia to have a future, they have to go.
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- Aug 22, 2020
So the vatniggers were correct about a caulderonerino? Just wrong about who was gonna be put in it
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- Sep 28, 2022
bullshit
nato could have a gorillion troops right next to a completely undefended russian border, they would still refuse to cross it because nuclear deterrence is alive and well.
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- Feb 23, 2023
There's pretty much nothing backing this up, and DefMon3 - probably the most reliable OSINT guy on front lines who updates daily mentions nothing about it. It'd be really fucking funny if the Russians get encircled around Bakhmut, but it's unlikely.
- Joined
- Jul 20, 2019
That's what I think as well. Everyone with two brain cells to rub together knows this. Which makes you wonder just how stupid vatniks are that they ate up the whole "Ukraine speshl operation is a preemptive strike against NATO who's totes gonna invade us" premise that Putin put forth. Yeah, pretty fucking retarded.
Nuclear deterrent was going to guarantee Russia's security for decades to come, at the very least, all they had to do is maintain the illusion of military strength that was annihilated over the past year by Putin's own hands. Leader for the history books indeed, as a punchline.
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- Jul 18, 2017
That's been the issue since this war began. Putin has never come out and said what it is he wants. When this started he said he was to Denazify and Demilitarize Ukraine. Followed by a huge attack on Kiev. People interpreted that as to mean he wanted the entire country.
The fun thing about not being specific though is you can never really lose if things don't go to plan. So Kiev became a feint and the goal since then has not been entirely clear. Most people "think" Russia wants all of the Donbass and now Kherson and Zaporizhia. But again, they have not come out and SAID it.
While frustrating for us in the peanut gallery, this is a huge problem because nobody knows what the goal is truly. This means Ukraine does not know what Russias negotiating position is, and the Russian Army does not know what the over all strategic vision of the war is.
- Joined
- Nov 4, 2017
> Vatnigger posts literal Pravda, as in the commie propaganda rag, links as evidence
> People engage with them as if they are posting in good faith.
Absolutely shamfur.
The development of the AC-130 is one of my favorite weapon development stories.
They put a bunch of ma-deuces on a C-47, and drew a rough grease pencil crosshair on the side window, and told the pilot "don't worry about actually hitting the target, we're just trying see how the system works. If this a workable idea, we'll figure out some way of aiming". The pilot with the grease pencil crosshairs proceeds to put virtually every round within 10 meters of the target.
Then some Airforce guy with Howitzer envy just shoves an artillery piece on the next iteration.
Like I said I was doing a high level overview. You must remember less than century before WWII, Japan was effectively still living in the 1400s. They didn't particularly like the military, and largely viewed the military as holding the Emperor hostage as the Shogunate had done. The Zaibatsu were broken up and the Yakuza were driven into the shadows, and these moves were also wildly popular.
> People engage with them as if they are posting in good faith.
Absolutely shamfur.
The development of the AC-130 is one of my favorite weapon development stories.
They put a bunch of ma-deuces on a C-47, and drew a rough grease pencil crosshair on the side window, and told the pilot "don't worry about actually hitting the target, we're just trying see how the system works. If this a workable idea, we'll figure out some way of aiming". The pilot with the grease pencil crosshairs proceeds to put virtually every round within 10 meters of the target.
Then some Airforce guy with Howitzer envy just shoves an artillery piece on the next iteration.
Like I said I was doing a high level overview. You must remember less than century before WWII, Japan was effectively still living in the 1400s. They didn't particularly like the military, and largely viewed the military as holding the Emperor hostage as the Shogunate had done. The Zaibatsu were broken up and the Yakuza were driven into the shadows, and these moves were also wildly popular.
GatorAids
kiwifarms.net
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- Jan 7, 2023
Andy Warski should use this opportunity. Get Prigozhin and Shoigu on a stream to scream at eachother. Internet Bloodsports is back baybee!
- Joined
- Dec 17, 2019
An attempt to force Ukraine to commit their in-progress reserve army to stem the tide of an offensive.
Basically IF Russia can threaten a breakthrough they can hypothetically turn the situation desperate enough that the UA abandon hopes of a second series of counter-offensives and send the forces they were building (particularly those kitted with Western gear) into the frontline now (on Russia's terms) rather than later (on Ukraine's terms).
In the case of Kremmina-Svatove, it seems to have at least worked somewhat in stopping the Ukrainian push on those cities and putting them on the backfoot.
In the case of Bakhmut and Vulhedar (especially the latter) its patently failing as they are failing to punch holes in the line fast enough to be further exploited, all the while racking up fuckhuge casualties.
Its not surrender when you're the invader.
Its just a pullout/withdrawl/retreat.
Even then its basically assuming that Russia can cut across Ukraine before all the military production contracts ramp up, when right now it's proving that it takes seven months (and counting) to even take Bakhmut...
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- Sep 26, 2021
One thing worth remembering with this is the fact that circumstances have given putin like a dozen different occasions where he could declare "mission accomplished" and scuttle back to the starting line pretending to the world and russia that they won yet another glorious victory.
He could have spun the failed invasion as a "lightning strike" to swiftly destroy vital ukrainian assets and sekrit super weapons which was 100% successful and he was able to bring the troops home in a week. He could have grabbed one of the many "back to starting lanes" peace proposals flying around in the first weeks/months and ended the war claiming victory but with extra "we totally didnt want to kill our beloved slavic brothers" bullshit. Hell when they faked that pathetic excuse for a rigged mass referendum, they could have just rigged it to have "we want to stay in ukraine" win and use that as their "we are so great and good we accept the will of the people" pretext to gtfo. Hell they could have pulled the "NATO WAS GONNA TOTALLY ENTER THE WAR AND WE LOVE HUMANITY TOO MUCH FOR MUH NUCLEAR WAR!" in desperation at any time.
However, each and every time putin is presented with such an opportunity he utterly ignores it, and instead doubles down whenever russia faces its latest strategic defeat without any actual plan ahead, seemingly just trying to keep the war going long enough for the other side to just get bored and give up.
The only changes he makes are "grand gestures" to show off how russia is totally winning and could fight forever and ever like officially declaring the annexation of a third of Ukraine (and given the plans with Kharkov and Odessa, planning to bring that up to a solid half) or uselessly wasting its missiles on civilian targets and infrastructure or the fact they responded to shit like Bucha being exposed by publicly awarding the regiments involved with awards, all while his minions spam nuclear threats in all directions hoping this scuffed mad dog strategy magically starts working before they get routed again.
All of this makes me conclude on simple thing.
Putin was never a chessmaster. At this point only the most autistic russia simp or geopolitics schizo would even try to pretend otherwise.
Putin was never a poker player. His misreading of the attitudes of literally every fucking nation directly and indirectly involved in the war and his clinging to the worst hand in 21st century geopolitics when everybody already knows he holds it instead of folding early is beyond any doubt now.
Hell, putin was never a fucking candy crush player because that atleast requires a modicum of forward thinking and consideration beyond mindlessly satisfying ones id
Putin is a fucking blackjack addict.
One of those bald middle aged losers who go on a trip to some D list Vegas casino/minimart, has a reasonable string of luck at the blackjack table which allows him to walk out with a couple extra hundred, and then it all goes to his head and he bets his life savings on the next blackjack table he sees, and when it inevitably backfires he keeps on doubling down hoping his string of good luck comes back and he can magically get back all he lost and walk away with a massive payout if he played just one more round...