Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[Astro Galactic Megalul]

One thing worth remembering with this is the fact that circumstances have given putin like a dozen different occasions where he could declare "mission accomplished" and scuttle back to the starting line pretending to the world and russia that they won yet another glorious victory.

He could have spun the failed invasion as a "lightning strike" to swiftly destroy vital ukrainian assets and sekrit super weapons which was 100% successful and he was able to bring the troops home in a week. He could have grabbed one of the many "back to starting lanes" peace proposals flying around in the first weeks/months and ended the war claiming victory but with extra "we totally didnt want to kill our beloved slavic brothers" bullshit. Hell when they faked that pathetic excuse for a rigged mass referendum, they could have just rigged it to have "we want to stay in ukraine" win and use that as their "we are so great and good we accept the will of the people" pretext to gtfo. Hell they could have pulled the "NATO WAS GONNA TOTALLY ENTER THE WAR AND WE LOVE HUMANITY TOO MUCH FOR MUH NUCLEAR WAR!" in desperation at any time.

However, each and every time putin is presented with such an opportunity he utterly ignores it, and instead doubles down whenever russia faces its latest strategic defeat without any actual plan ahead, seemingly just trying to keep the war going long enough for the other side to just get bored and give up.

The only changes he makes are "grand gestures" to show off how russia is totally winning and could fight forever and ever like officially declaring the annexation of a third of Ukraine (and given the plans with Kharkov and Odessa, planning to bring that up to a solid half) or uselessly wasting its missiles on civilian targets and infrastructure or the fact they responded to shit like Bucha being exposed by publicly awarding the regiments involved with awards, all while his minions spam nuclear threats in all directions hoping this scuffed mad dog strategy magically starts working before they get routed again.

All of this makes me conclude on simple thing.

Putin was never a chessmaster. At this point only the most autistic russia simp or geopolitics schizo would even try to pretend otherwise.

Putin was never a poker player. His misreading of the attitudes of literally every fucking nation directly and indirectly involved in the war and his clinging to the worst hand in 21st century geopolitics when everybody already knows he holds it instead of folding early is beyond any doubt now.

Hell, putin was never a fucking candy crush player because that atleast requires a modicum of forward thinking and consideration beyond mindlessly satisfying ones id

Putin is a fucking blackjack addict.

One of those bald middle aged losers who go on a trip to some D list Vegas casino/minimart, has a reasonable string of luck at the blackjack table which allows him to walk out with a couple extra hundred, and then it all goes to his head and he bets his life savings on the next blackjack table he sees, and when it inevitably backfires he keeps on doubling down hoping his string of good luck comes back and he can magically get back all he lost and walk away with a massive payout if he played just one more round...

DSP of geopolitics

 

[Ghostse]

Excellent low-light visual of shrapnel's range from a drone-dropped grenade, and how much is produced.
View attachment 4649080

tl;dr: Shrapnel

We were taught to road march 25ft behind the guy in front of us in staggered columns on either side of the road to make sure a grenade would only get one of us. Just because its sparking doesn't mean its leathal, but it won't be fun to get hit if you aren't wearing armor.

MacArthur, for his faults was the best fit for post war Japan, with Nimitz being a second best. I imagine if some clown like LeMay was in his role Japan would be a guilt cult clown show like Germany. I read somewhere he did his best to ensure fresh troops were part of the occupation force, knowing veterans of the Pacific would have taken their frustrations on the locals. Delaying the post WW2 Japanese military also enabled Japan to rebuild faster than the two Germanys. Japan is lucky it was able to hold out long enough for that faggot FDR to die as I'm sure he would have happily handed off half of the home islands to Stalin.

MacArthur's main advantage was he had a bunch of very young junior officers (because something happened to the first bunch) recruited from educated and talented people. His staff included a lot of people trained up on "trust busting" and they were able to use lessons learned on "how to dissemble a monopoly without imploding the market" in Japan.
His major failing was ego, and as military governor of Japan he got the ego massage he craved.

Assuming the footage of the POWs are actually Wagner, the beauty of this is that even though Wagner mainly used as plausible deniablity army, on paper they're mercenaries, which means that they're not protected by the Geneva Conventions at all, which is even something Russia pointed out when foreign volunteers arrived in Ukraine.

So in the eyes of the international law, torturing a captive Wagner trooper to death is A OK.

Not exactly. Wagner Mercs are not entitled to Geneva Convention protections, but they entitled to normal legal protections & human rights.

That is, you are allowed to interrogate them, you are allowed to throw them into solitary confinement without cause, you are not obligated to accept their surrender, you do not need to report their captivity or status to anyone, you don't have to provide them access to mail, you do not need to provide medical treatment, there is no minimum set of conditions, there is no external legal standard to protest treatment, you don't need to separate officers and enlisted, and while you must put them through your legal system, if insurrection/treason are capital offenses you are allowed to execute them. They are just foreigners with guns, and you may treat them that way.

Even then its basically assuming that Russia can cut across Ukraine before all the military production contracts ramp up, when right now it's proving that it takes seven months (and counting) to even take Bakhmut...

I do caution against getting too full about Bakhmut. If there's not a change in situation it will fall, and when it falls there is a high likelyhood of the front rolling back for a few miles. Kharkiv showed us how rapidly fronts can move.
And more importantly there won't be a single area Russia's offensive effort will be concentrated in.

Its still great to tweak Vatnigs about that rapid advance tho.

 

[draggs]

tl;dr: Shrapnel

We were taught to road march 25ft behind the guy in front of us in staggered columns on either side of the road to make sure a grenade would only get one of us. Just because its sparking doesn't mean its leathal, but it won't be fun to get hit if you aren't wearing armor.



MacArthur's main advantage was he had a bunch of very young junior officers (because something happened to the first bunch) recruited from educated and talented people. His staff included a lot of people trained up on "trust busting" and they were able to use lessons learned on "how to dissemble a monopoly without imploding the market" in Japan.
His major failing was ego, and as military governor of Japan he got the ego massage he craved.



Not exactly. Wagner Mercs are not entitled to Geneva Convention protections, but they entitled to normal legal protections & human rights.

That is, you are allowed to interrogate them, you are allowed to throw them into solitary confinement without cause, you are not obligated to accept their surrender, you do not need to report their captivity or status to anyone, you don't have to provide them access to mail, you do not need to provide medical treatment, there is no minimum set of conditions, there is no external legal standard to protest treatment, you don't need to separate officers and enlisted, and while you must put them through your legal system, if insurrection/treason are capital offenses you are allowed to execute them. They are just foreigners with guns, and you may treat them that way.



I do caution against getting too full about Bakhmut. If there's not a change in situation it will fall, and when it falls there is a high likelyhood of the front rolling back for a few miles. Kharkiv showed us how rapidly fronts can move.
And more importantly there won't be a single area Russia's offensive effort will be concentrated in.

Its still great to tweak Vatnigs about that rapid advance tho.

I don't think it will roll back too much because Sloviansk and Kramatorsk are right there and Ukraine has every reason to defend both of them just as hard. More reason maybe. Taking Bakhmut only opens the way to those two towns, but if they fell, Lyman and basically everything Ukraine gained on both sides of the Oskil to the north would be threatened

 

[Wagner0id]

Assuming the footage of the POWs are actually Wagner, the beauty of this is that even though Wagner mainly used as plausible deniablity army, on paper they're mercenaries, which means that they're not protected by the Geneva Conventions at all, which is even something Russia pointed out when foreign volunteers arrived in Ukraine.

So in the eyes of the international law, torturing a captive Wagner trooper to death is A OK.

Ukraine goes full Ustashi when?

 

[Techpriest Mk II]

I don't think it will roll back too much because Sloviansk and Kramatorsk are right there and Ukraine has every reason to defend both of them just as hard. More reason maybe. Taking Bakhmut only opens the way to those two towns, but if they fell, Lyman and basically everything Ukraine gained on both sides of the Oskil to the north would be threatened

They could try and bypass both cities but it’d be dangerous, and the last time they left any sizable area in ukrainian control and bypassed it, they got fucking slaughtered a month later.

 

[Disheveled-Human]

The fact its been an entire year and they are still chewing through oblasts that were already partially controlled by the Russian Federation seems like the gains are only gonna get slower from here on out. I bet everything outside the Russian attack line is just filled with a disgusting amount of mines and covered by arty fire.

 

[Standardized Profile]

Assuming the footage of the POWs are actually Wagner, the beauty of this is that even though Wagner mainly used as plausible deniablity army, on paper they're mercenaries, which means that they're not protected by the Geneva Conventions at all, which is even something Russia pointed out when foreign volunteers arrived in Ukraine.

Urkaine's a party to to AP I. As long as Wagner sticks to recruiting Russian nationals, they aren't mercenaries.

So in the eyes of the international law, torturing a captive Wagner trooper to death is A OK.

This would also be a violation of the AP I (and II) fundamental guarantees, along with various other conventions.

And it would be against Ukraine's own implementation of international humanitarian law:

Ukraine’s IHL Manual (2004) states:
1.8.5. Serious violations of international humanitarian law directed against people include:
…
- torture and inhuman treatment;
…
- intentionally causing great suffering, or serious injury to body or health of a person;
…
- inhuman treatment accompanied by degrading human dignity.

 

[Disheveled-Human]

As for the drone warfare where from the Ukrainian side it looks like they are dropping large glowsticks (HE) on enemy platoons seems like those are designed to wound/maim the enemy not kill them meaning they need to undergo evac and either spend a month recovering or be simply retired. It is more expensive for the Russians to deal with this then dig a hole and hire a new group of cannon fodder.

 

[Fait Accompli]

As for the drone warfare where from the Ukrainian side it looks like they are dropping large glowsticks (HE) on enemy platoons seems like those are designed to wound/maim the enemy not kill them meaning they need to undergo evac and either spend a month recovering or be simply retired. It is more expensive for the Russians to deal with this then dig a hole and hire a new group of cannon fodder.

Isn't it just that these small improvised drones can't carry grenades with enough ordinance to kill groups of enemies?

 

[Disheveled-Human]

Isn't it just that these small improvised drones can't carry grenades with enough ordinance to kill groups of enemies?

I think that these bomblettes are not really killing soldiers, I seen so much footage of this type of attack and it usually results in the attacked squad panicking and 2 of the 8 people are on the ground crawling away or limping out of the zone. These are not killing them its maiming them. I don't think these attacks are designed to kill but to wound the soldier which is expensive to fix as opposed to just killing them.

 

[DumbDude43]

I think that these bomblettes are not really killing soldiers, I seen so much footage of this type of attack and it usually results in the attacked squad panicking and 2 of the 8 people are on the ground crawling away or limping out of the zone. These are not killing them its maiming them. I don't think these attacks are designed to kill but to wound the soldier which is expensive to fix as opposed to just killing them.

thats only good if the wounding is severe enough to permanently cripple the target. but if it's too weak they'll come right back to the fight after a few weeks/months of treatment.

 

[Disheveled-Human]

thats only good if the wounding is severe enough to permanently cripple the target. but if it's too weak they'll come right back to the fight after a few weeks/months of treatment.

Yeah but the Russians are not really running out of manpower like in my honest opinion I think in terms of this war they have close to an infinite amount, so killing them is not that useful unless its being done in extreme amounts which even the Russians know better to avoid. Wounding them or otherwise temporarily disabling them is arguably more effective then outright killing them because they are obligated to patch the wounded soldier up. I mean this doctrine has been around since WW1 and probably the medieval ages and is why shrapnel is still used to this day a wounded or maimed soldier is more expensive to deal with then a dead soldier.

 

[Techpriest Mk II]

Yeah but the Russians are not really running out of manpower like in my honest opinion I think in terms of this war they have close to an infinite amount, so killing them is not that useful unless its being done in extreme amounts which even the Russians know better to avoid. Wounding them or otherwise temporarily disabling them is arguably more effective then outright killing them because they are obligated to patch the wounded soldier up. I mean this doctrine has been around since WW1 and probably the medieval ages and is why shrapnel is still used to this day a wounded or maimed soldier is more expensive to deal with then a dead soldier.

God no, the Russians can’t mobilize enough men without risking Moscow rising up if they keep throwing away men at the rate they’re going.

 

[DumbDude43]

Yeah but the Russians are not really running out of manpower like in my honest opinion I think in terms of this war they have close to an infinite amount, so killing them is not that useful unless its being done in extreme amounts which even the Russians know better to avoid. Wounding them or otherwise temporarily disabling them is arguably more effective then outright killing them because they are obligated to patch the wounded soldier up.

i understand, i just mean that minor scratches from light shrapnel isn't the perfect outcome. ideally you want the kind of crippling heavy injury that puts them in a military hospital for many months (big drain on army resources) and in a wheelchair for life (big drain on state resources)

I mean this doctrine has been around since WW1 and probably the medieval ages and is why shrapnel is still used to this day a wounded or maimed soldier is more expensive to deal with then a dead soldier.

most shrapnel is just the unintentional byproduct of explosions.
some is intentional (fragmentation grenades for example) but its purpose isn't specifically to wound and maim, it's there to increase the effective lethal radius of the explosion. the blast itself is too weak to reliably take out people unless they're standing directly on top of it, but the fragmentation basically shoots dozens of little bullets around the room, and those can kill at much greater distances than the grenade explosion itself.

 

[Disheveled-Human]

God no, the Russians can’t mobilize enough men without risking Moscow rising up if they keep throwing away men at the rate they’re going.

They still have not even declared it a war. Meaning their ability to increase aggression is gimped.

i understand, i just mean that minor scratches from light shrapnel isn't the perfect outcome. ideally you want the kind of crippling heavy injury that puts them in a military hospital for many months (big drain on army resources) and in a wheelchair for life (big drain on state resources)

I think the HE drones are effective because they provide 2 purposes, surveillance and the potential to cause casualties all in one and the casualties these drones provide are more in line with wounding and maiming they are not artillery and they are running these things 24/7.

 

[mindlessobserver]

Per Reuters, Ukraine did do some counter attacks over the weekend that met with modest success. Nothing quite as dramatic as the happy merchant map though.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-ground-forces-commander-visits-besieged-bakhmut-talk-strategy-boost-2023-02-27/

 

[Techpriest Mk II]

They still have not even declared it a war. Meaning their ability to increase aggression is gimped.


I think the HE drones are effective because they provide 2 purposes, surveillance and the potential to cause casualties all in one and the casualties these drones provide are more in line with wounding and maiming they are not artillery and they are running these things 24/7.

Mass drafting of the young men of russia would cause massive regime instability, especially as they'll have to dig into the Moscow/Saint Petersburg population sooner rather than later, deaths there will impact the lives of people much more than the current disproportionate casualties among the various ethnic republics and border regions that's currently happening. That's not including the issues economically. ISW did a very good evaluation on the situation yesterday.

 

[Fanatical Pragmatist]

I do caution against getting too full about Bakhmut. If there's not a change in situation it will fall, and when it falls there is a high likelyhood of the front rolling back for a few miles. Kharkiv showed us how rapidly fronts can move.
And more importantly there won't be a single area Russia's offensive effort will be concentrated in.

Its still great to tweak Vatnigs about that rapid advance tho.

I agree that Bakhmut is likely to fall soon, though I disagree it will lead to any rapid break-through.
My point is just that:
1) the longer Russia takes to capture Bakhmut, the worse it gets for them, and
2) the original question that caused the comment chain involved a scenario when Russia just somehow is able to sweep across all of Europe because Ukraine suddenly decides to give up. If it takes them 7 months (and counting) to capture a single city close to their own border, how would anyone expect Russia to blitz all of Europe before NATO arms production ramps up to full capacity?

I think that these bomblettes are not really killing soldiers, I seen so much footage of this type of attack and it usually results in the attacked squad panicking and 2 of the 8 people are on the ground crawling away or limping out of the zone. These are not killing them its maiming them. I don't think these attacks are designed to kill but to wound the soldier which is expensive to fix as opposed to just killing them.

Isn't it just that these small improvised drones can't carry grenades with enough ordinance to kill groups of enemies?

Its probably somewhere in between.
I doubt Ukraine is intentionally nerf'ing their grenades just to maim and not kill; but I have no doubt the grenades are designed to still maim at ranges which they cant kill from.

 

[gayberouse]

As for the drone warfare where from the Ukrainian side it looks like they are dropping large glowsticks (HE) on enemy platoons seems like those are designed to wound/maim the enemy not kill them meaning they need to undergo evac and either spend a month recovering or be simply retired. It is more expensive for the Russians to deal with this then dig a hole and hire a new group of cannon fodder.

This is a common misconception of war, weapons/tactics are never designed to be less lethal on purpose in regards to actual conventional combat with little to no ROE's. That might be an unexpected benefit but never the first intention.

 

[Disheveled-Human]

I looked into what kind of munitions are being dropped and what comes up is what looks like a lightly modified stick grenade of Soviet origin just with some wing tips on it. The perspective of the drone angles make the payload seem smaller than it is but still its not very lethal unless dropped within a meter or two of the target. I guess like most grenades.