Russian Special Military Operation in the Ukraine - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

Well, this is entertaining. An NBC News reporter attempted to tell the truth (for a change) about Crimea and it immediately got him a spot on Ukraine's kill list. That's what a country does when they're winning, right?
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At this point it's becoming painfully clear that Ukraine has already lost the war, and what we're seeing now are the death throes of a collapsing country. From desperate terror attacks on civilians to impotently lashing out at their own allies, these are clear signs of an imminent complete collapse. This is Berlin in 1945, and the Red Army is on the outskirts.
 
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Badungus Kabungus said:
At this point it's becoming painfully clear that Ukraine has already lost the war, and what we're seeing now are the death throes of a collapsing country. From desperate terror attacks on civilians to impotently lashing out at their own allies, these are clear signs of a complete and total imminent collapse. This is Berlin in 1945, and the Red Army is on the outskirts.
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Don't get me wrong, but I'd rather count the chickens after they hatch.

Right now both this thread and the other one are going "How do we convince [the other side] that they have already lost!?" and the meatginder just keeps on churning. Collapsing country or not, it can still keep going for as long as the West keeps propping it up, and the US and its illustrious and totally lucid president keep doubling down after each unsuccessful gambit. I'm sure there is another 50 billion dollar care package coming right up, and this money can buy a lot of German and Polish politicians and mercenaries.
 
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Fighting Type Pokemon said:
Don't get me wrong, but I'd rather count the chickens after they hatch.

Right now both this thread and the other one are going "How do we convince [the other side] that they have already lost!?" and the meatginder just keeps on churning. Collapsing country or not, it can still keep going for as long as the West keeps propping it up, and the US and its illustrious and totally lucid president keep doubling down after each unsuccessful gambit. I'm sure there is another 50 billion dollar care package coming right up, and this money can buy a lot of Polish mercenaries.
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They'll keep doubling down until a certain point, yes. But the reason I'm saying that Ukraine lost the war is simple. Even if Russia were to withdraw every single soldier right now from the disputed territories, is Ukraine going to survive as a country on its own afterwards? West isn't going to rebuild it, they can't keep their own infrastructure running.

Consider that a large percentage of the population has fled, vast majority of infrastructure is destroyed, remaining infrastructure is unmaintained and will fail any moment, and the country is in debt to the west up to their eyeballs and have no idea how to pay it, unless they get it from Russia as reparations. That's why even if Russia were to withdraw right now, Ukraine would still have lost the war. They're done as a country, all thanks to America's efforts.
 
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Badungus Kabungus said:
They're done as a country, all thanks to America's efforts.
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Which is exactly what the western powers want. A weak, impotent nation made up of poor uneducated peasants who are terrorized into line by mercenary thugs. Who take orders from puppets that are "elected" in "free and fair" elections.

If Russia fails to take over the whole of Ukraine, than the American government is just gonna continue sending aid packages. Which is really just money laundering schemes and kick backs. Funneling American tax-payer dollars into NGOs and corporations "rebuilding" Ukraine that are owned by the politicians themselves. It will be business as usual.
 
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Badungus Kabungus said:
They'll keep doubling down until a certain point, yes. But the reason I'm saying that Ukraine lost the war is simple. Even if Russia were to withdraw every single soldier right now from the disputed territories, is Ukraine going to survive as a country on its own afterwards?

Consider that a large percentage of the population has fled, vast majority of infrastructure is destroyed, remaining infrastructure is unmaintained and will fail any moment, and the country is in debt to the west up to their eyeballs and have no idea how to pay it, unless they get it from Russia as reparations. That's why even if Russia were to withdraw right now, Ukraine would still have lost the war. They're done as a country, all thanks to America's efforts.
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Done as a functioning country yes, but that just leaves a country-sized NATO-staffed military camp where it used to be. The entire point of the war was to prevent that from happening, so that's hardly a victory for Russia, either.

I realize that I am treading dangerously close to getting booted out of the thread in favor of the other camp, but this is an issue I cannot ignore because it spells decades of future tensions and paves the way for a WW III scenario. Thankfully, the EU is nowhere close to forcing Russia into a Treaty of Versailles 2.0, but the peace settlement with Ukraine must be damn good to prevent it from happening.

Which is why I think there isn't going to be one and we're looking at an indefinite extension of hostilities, freezing the conflict in a state of limbo as the Western coalition money and manpower start petering out, if they even do.

By the way, Ukraine is also supposed to have elections in March, 2024. You reckon Zelensky gives himself emergency powers and stays where he is or retains his seat via the totally true and honest democratic process?
 
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Badungus Kabungus said:
Consider that a large percentage of the population has fled, vast majority of infrastructure is destroyed, remaining infrastructure is unmaintained and will fail any moment, and the country is in debt to the west up to their eyeballs and have no idea how to pay it, unless they get it from Russia as reparations. That's why even if Russia were to withdraw right now, Ukraine would still have lost the war. They're done as a country, all thanks to America's efforts.
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I think one of the long term solutions coming from the fallout of this is the Balkanization of Ukraine. Kiev post-war will tax the everlasting shit out of anything that moves and the quality of life will drop to the point where breakaway states will actually happen within Ukraine. It'd also be gloriously ironic because now there'd be MORE buffer states between Russia and US command posts which would inevitably bring them closer to Russia. New Ukrainian states will simply ignore their debts as they are a new country and there'll be a brand new Kosovo situation with Ukrainians flinging shit at one another in squabbles.
 
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Fighting Type Pokemon said:
Done as a functioning country yes, but that just leaves a country-sized NATO-staffed military camp where it used to be. The entire point of the war was to prevent that from happening, so that's hardly a victory for Russia, either.

I realize that I am treading dangerously close to getting booted out of the thread in favor of the other camp, but this is an issue I cannot ignore because it spells decades of future tensions and paves the way for a WW III scenario. Thankfully, the EU is nowhere close to forcing Russia into a Treaty of Versailles 2.0, but the peace settlement with Ukraine must be damn good to prevent it from happening.

Which is why I think there isn't going to be one and we're looking at an indefinite extension of hostilities, freezing the conflict in a state of limbo as the Western coalition money and manpower start petering out, if they even do.
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I do agree with your point that it is a war with all of NATO now, and has been for some time. Basically Ukraine has already lost, but NATO hasn't yet.

Still, NATO's actions have created a powerful defensive alliance by pushing China and Russia closer together, and hopefully the people of NATO nations will realize where this is heading and will try to avert the disaster their leaders are pushing them into. I don't see a path to victory for NATO, only either a loss, or mutual destruction if they persist in their actions. NATO's goal was to balkanize and destabilize Russia, which got China involved because they don't want a destabilized nuclear superpower right across their border.

Tom Nook's Gloryhole said:
I think one of the long term solutions coming from the fallout of this is the Balkanization of Ukraine. Kiev post-war will tax the everlasting shit out of anything that moves and the quality of life will drop to the point where breakaway states will actually happen within Ukraine. It'd also be gloriously ironic because now there'd be MORE buffer states between Russia and US command posts which would inevitably bring them closer to Russia. New Ukrainian states will simply ignore their debts as they are a new country and there'll be a brand new Kosovo situation with Ukrainians flinging shit at one another in squabbles.
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I had a similar thought back in 2021. Western Ukraine would end up being a separate state controlled by Poland and other "peacekeeping" nations ala Kosovo (and they would get stuck with all the debts because everyone else would tell them to fuck right off), Central Ukraine (Kiev) would be a puppet state controlled by Russia, and Malorossiya would join Russia outright.
 
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Badungus Kabungus said:
I do agree with your point that it is a war with all of NATO now, and has been for some time. Basically Ukraine has already lost, but NATO hasn't yet.

Still, NATO's actions have created a powerful defensive alliance by pushing China and Russia closer together, and hopefully the people of NATO nations will realize where this is heading and will try to avert the disaster their leaders are pushing them into. I don't see a path to victory for NATO, just mutual destruction if they persist in their actions.
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Victor Orban floated a rather lulzy idea of a new miiltary alliance he called "NATO without the US". The bongs and the butthurt belt will never agree to that, but France, Portugal and Germany actually might.
 
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Fighting Type Pokemon said:
Victor Orban floated a rather lulzy idea of a new miiltary alliance he called "NATO without the US". The bongs and the butthurt belt will never agree to that, but France, Portugal and Germany actually might.
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Honestly, probably not the worst idea. Once you remove the US, the UK, Turkey and the butthurt belters from NATO, you will suddenly find that the remaining countries have a lot more in common than before. They'd be more likely to cooperate with Russia instead of provoking them. Turkey has to go because their interests fly in the face of the rest of NATO, both the US/UK and the European members. Erdogan wants to play out his Turanist fantasies and that's a definite conflict of interest with the rest of NATO.

This same conversation is probably taking place all across Europe right now, as Europeans are starting to realize that the US/UK doesn't exactly have their best interests in mind.

As I said before, can already see some major cracks appearing in NATO's solidarity...
 
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- be an American jurnalist
- come to Crimea to document the horrors of Putin's regime and win a Pulitzer prize
- Ask locals, "Do you side with Russia or with Ukraine?"
- Ten out of ten people you ask immediately answer "Russia"
- Poor things, they are so intimidated by the man-eating regime they dare not speak the truth
- Return home, publish report
- Ukraine government adds you to its hit list
 
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Well, it's official. Even NPC news are admitting it, same thing I just said. NATO has to either go all-in (resulting in mutual destruction), or suffer a loss in Ukraine and focus on Taiwan instead while they still can.

Only the full, Desert Storm style of deployment of NATO and U.S. troops and weaponry could bring about a comprehensive Ukrainian victory in a short period of time. (Never mind that such a deployment would most likely shorten the odds of one of the grimmer prospects of the war: The more Russia loses, the more it is likely to resort to nuclear weapons.)
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https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/02/opinion/ukraine-aid-united-states-nato.html
https://archive.ph/JSTso
 
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Just Some Other Guy said:
Jeez, the other thread needs to lighten up. They even get pissy if you're anti Russia, but not hopping on the NATO shill wagon, lol. No jokes, no nothing. Just super cereal autism.
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This is the KGB Headquarters where we plot out our nefarious schemes like Dr. Evil and his minions. Of course we have a sense of humor about world domination!
 
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Badungus Kabungus said:
Hey, once you get used to the idea that any day now we all may die in a nuclear fire thanks to the hubris and incompetence of a bunch of idiot boomers, things get pretty funny. Have a drink, have a laugh, enjoy yourself.
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Are you prepared for Fallout IRL? I am! No damn muties are gonna get me!
 
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