Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

spva said:
It saddens me on how totally fucked Ukraine is going to be after this war. Even if they achieve a total victory, get a marshal plan or two and all the refugees come back there demographics are just simply too fucked to ever recover. Especially with Russia kidnapping and murdering civilians within the hundreds of thousands in the occupied territories.
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It's more the east of the country is fucked. The rest is perfectly fine. Putins war, ostensibly to protect Russian speakers in Ukraine, has pretty much doomed them economically and politically to irrelevance. Most of the refugees and internally displaced people are Russian speakers. Most of the destroyed cities were majority Russian speaking.

Putin has done more to Genocide ethnic Russians in Ukraine in the last 12 months then the last 20 years of Kievs policies. There really is going to be no recovering for them.
 
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Anders Puck Nielsen interviews Maxim Katz, a Jewish Russian opposition politician and YouTuber living effectively in exile in Israel:
He thinks Putin cannot politically end the war; even if Ukraine takes all its territory back, the war will continue. But if Putin is replaced, his successor probably would end it. He also thinks further mobilization will be difficult and that Russia cannot win more than maybe a couple more towns.

His opposition channel has a large audience inside Russia. He sees hope for growing political engagement. But at the same time the war isn't likely to end any time soon.
 
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Monuklear said:
Not a "good ending", but that's actually very simple. Russia can just freeze the conflict. Sign a "temporary" armistice, or, more likely, grind Ukraine down into an entrenched stalemate that slowly tapers off over time. Things are arguably already going this way.
Donetsk & Luhansk will just be a new North Cyprus.
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I doubt that a ceasefire will happen because both sides have found a way to justify a “victory or death” approach to the conflict: Zelensky will say that “Ukraine can never hope for peace as long as Putin is in office” and is trying to find someone, anyone, who will agree with him.

And Putin has made it very clear that he won’t tolerate NATO (or a NATO friendly country) on his border, and what does Zelensky do? Have Ukraine apply to join NATO.

So not only will neither side be happy with the status quo, there’s a good chance that this will not stop until there’s regime change(s)



WhiteNight said:
Anders Puck Nielsen interviews Maxim Katz, a Jewish Russian opposition politician and YouTuber living effectively in exile in Israel:
He thinks Putin cannot politically end the war; even if Ukraine takes all its territory back, the war will continue. But if Putin is replaced, his successor probably would end it. He also thinks further mobilization will be difficult and that Russia cannot win more than maybe a couple more towns.

His opposition channel has a large audience inside Russia. He sees hope for growing political engagement. But at the same time the war isn't likely to end any time soon.
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I think this guy is very idealistic if the only way the war ends is if Putin is removed. For all we know, Putin can pick his successor(s) who’ll keep things going, and even then, what’s to say that Russia’s leader won’t share Putin’s views on the war (it’s a necessary conflict to ensure pro Russia regions abroad are protected and to keep NATO away from the borders, especially since the US have their eyes set on Moscow)?

At least his YouTube channel is doing numbers, it seems.
 
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Random Internet Person said:
I doubt that a ceasefire will happen because both sides have found a way to justify a “victory or death” approach to the conflict: Zelensky will say that “Ukraine can never hope for peace as long as Putin is in office” and is trying to find someone, anyone, who will agree with him.

And Putin has made it very clear that he won’t tolerate NATO (or a NATO friendly country) on his border, and what does Zelensky do? Have Ukraine apply to join NATO.

So not only will neither side be happy with the status quo, there’s a good chance that this will not stop until there’s regime change(s)
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There have been abortive attempts at reaching just such a ceasefire multiple times. The negotiations are always sabotaged by the West.
 
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Monuklear said:
There have been abortive attempts at reaching just such a ceasefire multiple times. The negotiations are always sabotaged by the West.
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"Hey bro we asked the subhuman fake people of the Ukraine to surrender, turn in all captured equipment, cut off all ties to any country that isn't Russia, arrest all wrong thinkers and submit to our will. Those assholes threw our peace offer in our face, very unreasonable."
 
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Monuklear said:
There have been abortive attempts at reaching just such a ceasefire multiple times. The negotiations are always sabotaged by the West.
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They were not "abortive attempts". Many of the 29 failed ceasefires were signed by all parties including the DPR and LPR, described as "comprehensive and indefinite".

A few managed to last for a couple months. Notably the Minsk agreements which were the original peace treaty asked Ukraine to amend their constitution and give the DPR/LPR special status. Minsk I was broken after the capture of Donetsk airport, Minsk II after DPR decided that one of the regions was exempt from the ceasefire.

The most recent (and longest lasting) ceasefire took effect July 2020, after which casualties dropped to single-digit levels. It ended, of course, in February 2022.
Apparently Ukraine is finally retreating from Bakhmut. Video claims to show a rail bridge being demolished. I'm not a geolocation expert so feel free to chime in.
archive.ph

Necro Mancer on Twitter: "#Бахмут (https://t.co/CvP1o4RLt5), подрыв ж…

сохранено 3 мар 2023 12:26:18 UTC
archive.ph archive.ph
1677846450782.png
 
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Yeah, they're pulling out now, so the battle should be over in a couple more days or so. Congratulations Russia! You have taken a town of 50k people prewar population! It cost you 8 months of progress in the Donbas, ~70k casualties of which at least 20 to 30k are dead, god knows how much equipment lost, and you STILL failed to encircle any large Ukrainian formations or capture large amounts of equipment. Oh, and you still haven't hit the main defensive line yet. It's like Tarawa or Monte Cassino. Lots of blood for not really any gain

:story:

EDIT:

Better analogy, it'd be like if the Allies had taken 8 months to pass the Bernhardt Line.
 
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Astro Galactic Megalul said:
Sheesh, prepare for the wave of gloating vatniks to invade the thread like it's Ukraine.
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They're currently too busy discussing how Putin's going to annex Ukraine and hand its westernmost territories to Moldova and Poland to curry international favor. Because Bakhmut is occupied now, which means total Ukrainian capitulation is right around the corner.

It happens ITT as well from time to time, but a lot of the Russia thread just reeks of HOI4 addicts who think their video game is a model for how real life works.
 
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I don't know in which thread that blog post might fit but one thing is sure, it doesn't praise Zelensky it all.
www.armstrongeconomics.com

Is Zelensky the Anti-Christ? | Armstrong Economics

A lot of people are writing in asking interesting questions about Zelensky. I seriously doubt he will be remembered with any respect by history. Indeed, Zelensky is by no means a world hero. He deceived Russia by pretending to promote peace to get elected and the Ukrainian people, but certainly...
www.armstrongeconomics.com www.armstrongeconomics.com

Blog/Ukraine​

Posted Mar 3, 2023 by Martin Armstrong​


A lot of people are writing in asking interesting questions about Zelensky. I seriously doubt he will be remembered with any respect by history. Indeed, Zelensky is by no means a world hero. He deceived Russia by pretending to promote peace to get elected and the Ukrainian people, but certainly not the world. He is the Dark Angel of Death spreading nothing but death and destruction for the entire world all because Ukraine refused to honor the Minsk Agreement that would end this war in 15 minutes and save the sovereignty of Ukraine. But no! The hatred of Russia is so intense, he is willing to totally destroy Ukraine all for the chance of creating World War III just to destroy Russia.

He is a sick psychopath who is most certainly a person who engages repeatedly in war criminal activities with his fake sirens and plots to drag in the entire world. The behavior of this sick individual demonstrates that he not only has zero remorse or empathy for those he has victimized even in his own country for he has sent to their deaths, yet now as he is losing he puts out propaganda to desperately drag in the entire world. Any news organization that supports Ukraine should be abolished and stripped of its license. Any advertiser supporting this FAKE NEWS is a co-conspirator with not just the FAKE NEWS, but the Neocons leading us to World War III and the major destruction of Western Civilization.
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Absolutego said:
They're currently too busy discussing how Putin's going to annex Ukraine and hand its westernmost territories to Moldova and Poland to curry international favor. Because Bakhmut is occupied now, which means total Ukrainian capitulation is right around the corner.

It happens ITT as well from time to time, but a lot of the Russia thread just reeks of HOI4 addicts who think their video game is a model for how real life works.
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They genuinely think the Ukrainians sent a huge amount of forces into Bakhmut that are getting encircled? Seriously?
 
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Interesting that Bakhmut is simultaneously a death trap for the entire hohol army because only two decent roads run out of it going northwest and southwest (and the entire hohol army is apparently in the city), but it will also be the key logistics hub for the pacification of the Donbass according to the very smart analysis I've seen from vatniggers this week

The contradiction is not noticed
 
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draggs said:
The contradiction is not noticed
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In cope thread they have mostly teenangers larping as adults, so they will didn't see any issues with that.

Techpriest Mk II said:
They genuinely think the Ukrainians sent a huge amount of forces into Bakhmut that are getting encircled? Seriously?
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Funniest part: they aren't encircled. They are evacuating units from that city in ordinary way as I stated few days ago.

It took longer that I thought.

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Reports (unconfirmed) about shelling from AFU of Belgorod Oblast. Maybye it wasn't wise to ignroe security of frontline on state border.

Maybye ruzzkie should remember that enemy can hit in any place?
 
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