The point of deviation is just after Justin Allard is assassinated. In the original timeline, Hanse visits Candace while she's recuperating, and she convinces him to let her deal with Romano Liao. In the new timeline, Hanse refuses. He's just done with House Liao's bullshit. He scrapes together everything he's got left, assembles it into ad-hoc RCTs, and launches it into the teeth of the Capellans, pulverizing them. House Marik doesn't move to assist because at the time, Hanse has Joshua Marik at the NAIS for cancer treatment, and House Kurita really doesn't give a shit (they're kinda busy).
House Liao, and the Capellan Confederation, cease to exist. Romano Liao, Tsen Shang, Sun-Tzu, and Kali are all killed. The Capellans exist as a protectorate under Candace, retaining most of their culture, but their days as a Successor State are done.