Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion


Fucking lol, Russia please stop being jokes for once please.
So the Russian pilots adopted the approach of "pee'ing" on the American drone with their planes? At this point I think 90% of Russian Pilot training is just watching the original Top Gun over and over. Or possibly Hot Shots. I'm not sure they can tell the difference.
 
So the Russian pilots adopted the approach of "pee'ing" on the American drone with their planes? At this point I think 90% of Russian Pilot training is just watching the original Top Gun over and over. Or possibly Hot Shots. I'm not sure they can tell the difference.
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yes.
countering russia is the whole reason for natos existence in the first place. as long as a russian military presence in or around europe exists, nato will keep countering it, that's the whole point of the organisation. if they wouldn't do that, they might as well dissolve the whole thing becauase it would be pointless and serve no purpose (russia is the only conceivable military threat to europe)
I agree that the US will continue sending aid to Ukraine as long as Russia is a threat. I disagree that Russia is the only reason for NATO's continued existence. It's a mutual defense treaty; except for people with a pisspoor understanding of geopolitics the idea that having defensive allies being a net benefit, especially when you aren't capable of spending hundreds of billions of dollars on defense, is pretty obvious. There's a reason why countries like Portugal, Canada, and the UK were founding members despite not being immediately put at risk by the USSR, and there's a reason why former soviet states flocked to NATO when the USSR fell (that isn't NATO magically brainwashing the people/governments to support NATO membership in order to spark a war with Russia for some reason).
 
Not surprising that FSB would consider rail sabotage in Poland. That's the path all the new western tanks will take entering Ukraine.

It does show some alarming levels of desperation coming from Moscow if true.
There's been a shitload of rail sabotage in Russia recently, junction boxes & power transmission stations getting torched, etc. Russian sympathizers (and/or Ukrainians) are responsible, but no doubt they blame NATO.

Although I also wouldn't be surprised if the FSB torched some Russian rail assets simply so they could blame NATO & Poland for sending infiltration teams; providing justification to themselves for responding in kind.

Update to "Kiwi rescues his friend" video; Oleksiy Gordeev was kept 42 days in a basement, surrounded by his dead & wounded brothers, and survived by eating crumbs & drinking from puddles.
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Image dump:
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Kelleyskiy's Heroes
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I agree that the US will continue sending aid to Ukraine as long as Russia is a threat. I disagree that Russia is the only reason for NATO's continued existence. It's a mutual defense treaty; except for people with a pisspoor understanding of geopolitics the idea that having defensive allies being a net benefit, especially when you aren't capable of spending hundreds of billions of dollars on defense, is pretty obvious. There's a reason why countries like Portugal, Canada, and the UK were founding members despite not being immediately put at risk by the USSR, and there's a reason why former soviet states flocked to NATO when the USSR fell (that isn't NATO magically brainwashing the people/governments to support NATO membership in order to spark a war with Russia for some reason).
at the time of nato founding the USSR was a real global power that could absolutely strike at UK, canada, portugal if it had wanted to, and this was seen as a real danger since the USSR officially pursued the goal of achieving worldwide communism.

in general a defensive alliance is useful only if there exists someone that could realistically pose a threat to you, otherwise it's pointless. for nato, that someone is russia. nobody else on the planet has the ability to seriously threaten nation states in europe or north america (except maybe turkey threatening greece over island disputes)
 
at the time of nato founding the USSR was a real global power that could absolutely strike at UK, canada, portugal if it had wanted to, and this was seen as a real danger since the USSR officially pursued the goal of achieving worldwide communism.

in general a defensive alliance is useful only if there exists someone that could realistically pose a threat to you, otherwise it's pointless. for nato, that someone is russia. nobody else on the planet has the ability to seriously threaten nation states in europe or north america (except maybe turkey threatening greece over island disputes)
I've actually read somewhere that Turks are somewhat worried about their future, if Russia would be weakened enough to be not a threat to Europe.
 
I've actually read somewhere that Turks are somewhat worried about their future, if Russia would be weakened enough to be not a threat to Europe.
makes a little bit of sense.
the reason america took turkey into nato is control over the turkish straits, which allows nato to cuck the russians in the black sea out of access to the mediterranean sea.
if russia were to no longer be a relevant threat, then control over the black sea would be irrelevant to america, so there would be no reason to keep the turks in the alliance for very long, no reason not to support greece in its dreams of finishing its reconquista.
 
at the time of nato founding the USSR was a real global power that could absolutely strike at UK, canada, portugal if it had wanted to, and this was seen as a real danger since the USSR officially pursued the goal of achieving worldwide communism.

in general a defensive alliance is useful only if there exists someone that could realistically pose a threat to you, otherwise it's pointless. for nato, that someone is russia. nobody else on the planet has the ability to seriously threaten nation states in europe or north america (except maybe turkey threatening greece over island disputes)
I guess it was a dumb point in retrospect (though Portugal and the UK were more at-risk than Canada, being that the USSR only had to pass through West Germany and France). Of course, the USSR was a major factor in the formation of NATO, but I'm saying there's reasons why you'd want to keep it around even when there isn't an immediate threat like Russia. It's why you don't completely demilitarize during peacetime, as Germany is learning the hard way. It's why Australia has been in a series of defensive pacts since the 50s, despite not really facing any existential foreign threats until recently with China. It's why the US is involved at all with defense treaties despite the ability to basically just sit neutrally in our corner of the world and not have to deal with the squabblings of Europe and Asia.
 
As Russia can't stop winning, they are going to call up another 400k conscripts!
Just two more weeks Z-bros!
snippet from article:

But I was told that was hohol cope and Putin wouldn't need to call up any more draftees given how many polish mercenaries they were killing every hour in Bakhmut.

Recruitment or conscription inside Russia is never a win for Ukraine. It often is framed as such, but it's the opposite. By now people should understand that Russia has more human resources and Ukrainians will still get slowly depleted faster. More Russian soldiers means more nightmare human waves for the already tired Ukrainian soldiers to deal with.
Ideally, we want no replenishment of anything Russian.
In a short term tactical level, yes.
But if Russia is having to refill ranks, it is showing they are losing troops.
It also means the war is affecting more people, and that might end up translating into more political pressure to end the adventure.


at the time of nato founding the USSR was a real global power that could absolutely strike at UK, canada, portugal if it had wanted to, and this was seen as a real danger since the USSR officially pursued the goal of achieving worldwide communism.
That's fairly optimistic unless you are referring to nukes and not conventional forces.

Even at its height, the Soviet Union had bugger all logistics that wasn't directly adjacent to its rail lines. Their navy - again, even at its most stronk - was a joke. They just had a big army, because the military was often used for civil engineering tasks, and stuff that was just good enough to make attacking them a bad idea, but their force projection was shit.

The real danger was Soviets doing what the Russians are doing now: delivering weapons to internal factions, using that chaos to deliver 'little green men' and then using them to pave the way for heavy equipment. The only danger to the UK/Portugal was their strong Useful Idiot organizations.
Canada could have seen landings, but Russia would have had no way of keeping them supplied once the USN cut the sea routes.
 
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two years ago it would have been, yes, but under current conditions this is tiny and irrelevant.
I think its more serious now, tensions are higher than ever and both sides really would want to make sure there is no direct confrontation
Russia took down a US drone in international waters, completely illegal and an act of agression. I honestly thought the response would've been much greater than what we've seen thus far
 
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Do you have a source that's not straight from the CIA?
For what it's worth, Radio Liberty did cite a Telegram post as their source. I'll just paste it here:
This private information is unavailable to guests due to policies enforced by third-parties.
The channel is attributed to some site called verstka.media. I can't tell you whether they're a legitimate site since I don't read Russian.
I think its more serious now, tensions are higher than ever and both sides really would want to make sure there is no direct confrontation
Russia took down a US drone in international waters, completely illegal and an act of agression. I honestly thought the response would've been much greater than what we've seen thus far
Russia lost their plane in the process. This is the kind of incident that could be an excuse to start something, but is obviously not intentional.

The US is pretty cautious about escalation risk, compared to countries like the Poland or the UK (who sent planes right after Russia condemned the idea).

Edit: Russia did not lose their plane, they just chose a really fucking weird way to down the drone
 
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That's fairly optimistic unless you are referring to nukes and not conventional forces.
The USSR's first successful nuclear test was a few months after the founding of NATO. No ICBMs either but bombers probably could have made the distance, albeit not without resistance. The US probably could have held the West Germany but it'd likely be difficult without at least logistical help from NATO states. Though that was also the period (or just before the period) where the US was suggesting that the USSR would win if we didn't suspect the invasion at least 10 days in advance.
The real danger was Soviets doing what the Russians are doing now: delivering weapons to internal factions, using that chaos to deliver 'little green men' and then using them to pave the way for heavy equipment. The only danger to the UK/Portugal was their strong Useful Idiot organizations.
I don't think the west would have stood for armed separatists in West Germany. The USSR seemed to prefer to cause division through its fifth columnists in the West. I'd argue they still do, even if it's more decentralized and for perhaps a different aim.
 
Old Tu-141 (or Tu-143) reconnaissance drone, repurposed by Ukraine as a cruise-missile. Originally retired by the USSR in 1989, they were returned to service by the Ukrainian Air Force after 2014.


The Tupolev Tu-141 Strizh (or Tu-143 Reys) is a Soviet reconnaissance drone that served with the Soviet Army during the late 1970s and 1980s. They were pressed back into service by the Ukrainian Air Force after 2014 for the War in Donbas.

Use during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine​

On 8 March 2022, a Tu-141 reconnaissance drone was reported crashed in Ukraine.

About midnight on 10 March 2022, a Tu-141 crashed in front of a student campus in Zagreb, Croatia, over 550 kilometres (340 mi) from Ukraine. Before it crashed, it had flown over Romania and Hungary. There were no casualties. The Ukrainian Air Force said that the drone did not belong to them. The Russian Embassy in Zagreb stated that Russian forces had not had such drones in their arsenal since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. The Croatian president, Zoran Milanović, said it was clear the drone came from the direction of Ukraine, entering Croatia after flying over Hungary. On 15 March, an undisclosed source close to the ministry of defence of Croatia was cited in the Croatian news magazine Nacional as saying that the investigation had concluded that the crashed drone belonged to the Armed Forces of Ukraine and carried a bomb that was meant for striking Russia's positions, but the drone had strayed off course and crashed after it ran out of fuel.

On 3 July 2022, the governor of the Kursk region wrote on Telegram that "our air defenses shot down two Ukrainian Strizh drones".

On 5 December 2022, explosions were reported at two Russian airbases: the one at Engels-2 reportedly damaged two Tu-95s according to Baza; the other at the Dyagilevo military airbase near Ryazan, destroyed a fuel truck, damaged a Tu-22M3 and killed three, injuring five. The Russian Ministry of Defense said that Ukraine struck these bases with Soviet-made jet drones, and that the drones were subsequently shot down at low altitude when approaching the air bases. The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine has not confirmed the information.

On 26 December 2022, at midnight, explosions were again reported at Engels-2. Air sirens were reported being heard at the base and surrounding areas. The local governor Roman Busargin reported no damage to "civilian infrastructure". At least two explosions were heard. These explosions have been reported by both the Ukrainian and Russian media. Three people from the “technical staff” have reportedly been killed. According to Russian television, "A Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicle was shot down at low altitude while approaching the Engels military airfield in the Saratov region," Ukrainian and Russian social media accounts reported a number of bombers have been destroyed. However Reuters could not confirm these claims. A modified Tu-141 was used to undertake the attack.

Edit: and meanwhile, on the other end of the scale....

Twitter Link
 
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two years ago it would have been, yes, but under current conditions this is tiny and irrelevant.
That mysterious and awful time you allude to would not have seen such an incident, because Chimputin wouldn't have wanted to set off a certain someone and his knowledge of the deep lore of primate dominance behaviors thanks to countless hours analyzing the gorilla channel
 
The USSR's first successful nuclear test was a few months after the founding of NATO. No ICBMs either but bombers probably could have made the distance, albeit not without resistance. The US probably could have held the West Germany but it'd likely be difficult without at least logistical help from NATO states. Though that was also the period (or just before the period) where the US was suggesting that the USSR would win if we didn't suspect the invasion at least 10 days in advance.

I don't think the west would have stood for armed separatists in West Germany. The USSR seemed to prefer to cause division through its fifth columnists in the West. I'd argue they still do, even if it's more decentralized and for perhaps a different aim.

Any country that shares a border with Russia would in trouble to sure. But the examples of UK/Portugal/Canada were pipe dreams that would need a few dominos to fall if there was a hope of straight invasion.

And specifically for continental Europe it was a different beast before satellite surveillance was a thing - lots of border, lots of forest, lots of hills, and the USSR had a lot of disposable men and control of the state media to ensure they could endure losses that any other nation would have found intolerable.
 
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